Detroit no longer in top 10 for murders 2021!

**cmubryan** · January-05-22, 12:43 PM

Why is no one discussing/celebrating this? For as long as I can remember, we have ALWAYS been in the top 5 for murder rates in America. In 2021, we aren't even in the top 10! Has this even happened in the last 50 years?

https://www.wlbt.com/2022/01/01/anal...ks-highest-us/

**Zacha341** · January-05-22, 12:51 PM

^ Yes! I was trying to explain this to a family member no longer living here that while general crime remains in the D the murder rate is down. Thanks.

**401don** · January-05-22, 01:00 PM

Not sure how accurate this one is but it appears to be looking at larger population cities only. Detroit is no. 4 with a bullet, so to speak.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/us...h-most-murders

**cmubryan** · January-05-22, 01:05 PM

401don..definitely not updated. They quote 2017 in the wording of the article. Hopefully these numbers aren't that old!

**Satiricalivory** · January-05-22, 01:09 PM

Woohoo, the rest of the country can suck it.

**renf** · January-05-22, 02:35 PM

The author of that World Population Review essay is quite confused. Are
the numbers to be trusted? The text states that East St. Louis is a part of
St. Louis. However, East St. Louis is a distinct city in Illinois and has
never been a neighborhood within St. Louis. I wonder why their fact
checker let this happen? It is good to see the decrease in homicides
in Detroit. The more or less official FBI crime statistics for 2021 will not
be available to considerably later this year.

**night-timer** · January-05-22, 04:10 PM

It seems not all cities get tumbled into the mix when deciding the "most dangerous".

Often the cities chosen are of a certain population size or above. If Detroit's population is below the size they're looking at or studying, suddenly Detroit is off the radar and looking good.

But maybe the crime is still there.

Crime figures per capita are more telling than overall numbers.

**ABetterDetroit** · January-05-22, 04:45 PM

Is Chief White making a difference? So far it looks like he could be, but there is still plenty of room for more improvement.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.det...amp/9067017002

**Danny** · January-05-22, 10:09 PM

WOW! Detroit is now a safe city again.

Then the murders will go back up again in a few months.

**Henry Whalley** · January-06-22, 01:43 PM

Just goes to show there are ten places crappier than Detroit.

**Rocket** · January-06-22, 02:23 PM

Originally Posted by night-timer

Crime figures per capita are more telling than overall numbers.

For sure.

401don posted this link above, which shows murders per 100,000 of population.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/us...h-most-murders

And as Don said,.. Detroit is #4.

What's amazing is that Chicago is all the way down at #10.

They've had WEEKENDS where 104 people were shot, and 19 died.

**Meddle** · January-06-22, 02:29 PM

Originally Posted by Rocket

For sure.

401don posted this link above, which shows murders per 100,000 of population.

And post #4 says that report is 4 years old, therefore out of date.

**Meddle** · January-06-22, 02:35 PM

This one shows #16:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ities-in-2015/

But look where Flint is.

This one is national over 30 years. Note the trend:

https://www.macrotrends.net/countrie...-homicide-rate

**Rocket** · January-06-22, 03:01 PM

Originally Posted by Meddle

And post #4 says that report is 4 years old, therefore out of date.

If you open the link, you'll see that it says "Cities With Most Murders 2021 by Population 2021". [not sure why the redundancy]

It does go on to give some examples of how data can be confusing, and gives examples such as some data of NY in 2017, but the graphs and lists are for 2021 it would seem.

**401don** · January-06-22, 03:02 PM

Originally Posted by Meddle

This one shows #16:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ities-in-2015/

But look where Flint is.

This one is national over 30 years. Note the trend:

https://www.macrotrends.net/countrie...-homicide-rate

You can move the U.S. up, and maybe even their murders, since Puerto Rico is a U.S. territory, not a country.

**JBMcB** · January-07-22, 01:01 PM

Originally Posted by 401don

You can move the U.S. up, and maybe even their murders, since Puerto Rico is a U.S. territory, not a country.

Even if you were to bundle that statistic in with the US, it wouldn't make much difference, as it's the murder rate per capita, not the gross number of murders. Puerto Rico has 3 million people, which is about 1% of the total US population, so it might eek the US ranking up another fraction of a percentage point.

Although Detroit's fall in the rankings seems like good news, I have a feeling it's more due to the fact that other, smaller cities have seen huge spikes in their homicide rates, that pushes them far up the rankings, instead of a precipitous decline in the homicides in Detroit [[though the raw numbers do seem to be down.)

**Rocket** · January-07-22, 03:32 PM

I took the murder numbers surrounding each census year [so murders for '89, '90 and '91 for example, to smooth out the data for 1990), and divided the result by the census population in that year, and here's what I got.

EDIT,
1990 had 607 murders, on a pop of 1.028 mil, or 59.1 murders per 100k
2000 had 402 murders, on a pop of 951,300 or 42.3 murders per 100k
2010 had 47.6 murders per 100k
2021 had 48.4 murders per 100k

So 2021 was about the same as 10 years ago, not as good as 20 years ago, but better than 30 years ago. All in all, about an average year.

**bartocktoo** · January-07-22, 03:45 PM

Originally Posted by Rocket

I took the murder numbers surrounding each census year [so murders for '89, '90 and '91 for example, to smooth out the data for 1990), and divided the result by the census population in that year, and here's what I got.

1990 ['89, '90, '91] averaged about 607 murders, on a population of 1.028 million or 1.7 murders per 100k

2000's averaged about 402 murders, on a pop of 951,300 or 2.37 murders per 100k

2010 ish averaged about 340. on a pop of 713,800 or 2.1 murders per 100k.

2021 Detroit Homicides = 309, on a pop of 639k or 2.07 murders per 100k

So 2021 was about the same as 10 years ago, better than 20 years ago, but not as good as 30 years ago. In all, about an average year.

Using the numbers you provided, 309 out of 639k is 48.36 murders per 100K. 2010 is 47.63. 2000 is 42.26 and 59.05 for 1990.

**Rocket** · January-07-22, 04:09 PM

Originally Posted by bartocktoo

Using the numbers you provided, 309 out of 639k is 48.36 murders per 100K. 2010 is 47.63. 2000 is 42.26 and 59.05 for 1990.

Whoops! I did the division upside down. [pop / murders, instead of murders / pop].

Thanks for catching that.

I edited my post.

**Meddle** · January-07-22, 04:47 PM

That's about what the national chart shows over 30-40 years. Worse then than now, but not as bad a while back. So, what was different in the 80s and 90s?

**Satiricalivory** · January-07-22, 05:00 PM

Originally Posted by Rocket

For sure.

401don posted this link above, which shows murders per 100,000 of population.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/us...h-most-murders

And as Don said,.. Detroit is #4.

What's amazing is that Chicago is all the way down at #10.

They've had WEEKENDS where 104 people were shot, and 19 died.

Because this is all wrong. The rate means absolutely nothing when the city limits are apples to oranges.

When comparing the metro areas Chicago has a higher murder rate than Detroit.

**313WX** · January-07-22, 05:40 PM

Originally Posted by Meddle

That's about what the national chart shows over 30-40 years. Worse then than now, but not as bad a while back. So, what was different in the 80s and 90s?

Crack-Cocaine epidemic.

**Rocket** · January-07-22, 06:46 PM

Originally Posted by Satiricalivory

Because this is all wrong. The rate means absolutely nothing when the city limits are apples to oranges.

When comparing the metro areas Chicago has a higher murder rate than Detroit.

Are you sure you mean "Rate" ?

Chicago did have more than double the murders than we had in Detroit at 797 v.s our 309 for 2021, and that IS 2.58 times as much as Detroit, but they also have a population of more than 2.7 million, which is 4.236 times Detroit's.

So 2.58 / 4.236 means they have a murder "rate" that is just 61% of ours. I.e. you're just 61% as likely to get murdered in Chi-Town as you are in the D.

[Unless I goofed up my maths again]

**401don** · January-07-22, 07:19 PM

Originally Posted by Rocket

Are you sure you mean "Rate" ?

Chicago did have more than double the murders than we had in Detroit at 797 v.s our 309 for 2021, and that IS 2.58 times as much as Detroit, but they also have a population of more than 2.7 million, which is 4.236 times Detroit's.

So 2.58 / 4.236 means they have a murder "rate" that is just 61% of ours. I.e. you're just 61% as likely to get murdered in Chi-Town as you are in the D.

[Unless I goofed up my maths again]

Not sure why he said "metro areas" either. This is a list within a city limits, not metros.
Regardless, for practical purposes we all know that murder and crime in general varies greatly within a city. You are a lot safer in downtown Detroit at midnight than in most neighborhoods. Chicago's murders are sky high on the south side vs. the north side. Despite what should be common sense you get people asking, is Detroit safe? I can tell you I'm a lot safer in downtown Detroit at midnight than at the intersection of Jane & Finch in Toronto at 6 pm.

**night-timer** · January-08-22, 03:14 PM

Originally Posted by 401don

Not sure why he said "metro areas" either. This is a list within a city limits, not metros.
Regardless, for practical purposes we all know that murder and crime in general varies greatly within a city. You are a lot safer in downtown Detroit at midnight than in most neighborhoods. Chicago's murders are sky high on the south side vs. the north side. Despite what should be common sense you get people asking, is Detroit safe? I can tell you I'm a lot safer in downtown Detroit at midnight than at the intersection of Jane & Finch in Toronto at 6 pm.

What keeps crime out of downtown? [[Having said that, I agree that Downtown is safer than the suburbs.) Is it the lack of people in Downtown at night? Maybe, but Greektown fits into my view of a 'downtown' precinct, and Greektown is never empty and desolate, even at midnight.