Rivian seeks IPO that would Make it More Valuable than Ford or GM

[Lowell]

Go figure. The magical of Wall Street that makes Tesla the most valuable vehicle manufacture in the world, even though if produces only a fraction of the number of vehicles of Toyota, VW, GM or Ford, appears to be at work again.

"Rivian, an electric vehicle startup with a big footprint in Plymouth Township west of Detroit and backed by Amazon, Ford, and other deep-pocketed investors, announced Friday that it has confidentially filed to become a publicly traded company.

"The proposed offering's size and price range is still to be determined, although Bloomberg reported the company is eying an $80 billion valuation. Such a valuation would make Rivian one of Michigan's most valuable companies. By comparison, General Motors has a $72 billion market capitalization and Ford Motor Co.'s market cap is $53 billion.
https://freep-mi.newsmemory.com?publ...8f9cfd_1345eb0

The company has yet to ship any vehicles to general consumers but it does have a standing order of 100,000 delivery trucks from Amazon.

[Richard]

It is interesting to watch all of this play out.

The majority of most fleets,UPS,FedEx,Amazon etc. is with the 16 foot step vans - or most know them as bread trucks.

There was a company in Cali - Workhorse- Workhorse was bought out by Utilimaster who is the last manufacturer,after buying everybody else out,was funded and folding even after a Chinese investment of 35 million.

Because of little interest.

Lordstown motors funded with a loan from GM of 35 million says they also have a standing order of 100,000 vehicles.

There is another one that shut down after being investigated for fraud because they were excepting monies without producing vehicles or meeting promised deadlines.

At 80 billion this becomes really the only serious player that is well funded and could dominate the market before others could get a serious foothold.

Unless somebody really nails the meat of the delivery trucks,the 16’ step van,you could really take a Prius or a Tesla chassis and stick a box on them for inner city deliveries.

Like post office size trucks,but then to get the same capacity,they would have to double the fleet and labor pool to drive it.

The post office is in the bidding process for 200,000 electric or hybrid or gas powered delivery trucks,Ford combined with Oshkosh,who is the military truck builder/supplier is one of the bidders.

But as a gas powered and not hybrid or electric like the other bidders.

You would think if Ford is into Rivian they would be placing that bid as a EV versus fossil fuel driven.

So there is a standing order of 400,000 EVs but nobody has been able to fill them and the one company that was actually building them ,ran out of funds because of not enough interest.

Not to go politics but politics is playing a major role in this with making incentives for potential purchasers and funding research to the tune of billions.

Like what happened in solar,a upstart could capitalize on that but that is all subjective to change on a dime according to who is in the main administration.

Solar was in a roll until it stopped being incentivized then the market fell out and repeated that cycle in every country in the world.

It appears as the objective is with making grocery getter trucks for the general market verses the needs of Amazon and its standing order.

Lordstown as of now is the only one that is or can produce a higher GVW rated truck that can be used in fleets.

[Satiricalivory]

lol companies that literally haven't sold a single product worth more then global powerhouses. What a screwy world.

I just hope Ford is able get out on top with their stake.

[renf]

To me this sure seems like the post World War II era when several companies tried to enter the US automobile market: Crosley, Kaiser-Frazier, Tucker, Playboy and several others. None of them survived for very long. But it is trued that Rivian, Bollinger, Tesla and the firm in
Lordstown have lots of capital to support them as they try to enter the market.

[SFDS]

The article cites Rivian is one of Michigan's most valuable companies. Didn't I read in recent months they were moving back to California?

[Richard]

^ yes they are saying good-bye to Michigan.

http://www.autoline.tv/journal/?p=68...4bKWh_yUxPyrng

So the companies have already invested in it at one price,the IPO they are hoping that it will being a higher stock price then their initial investment.

Its people investing at levels 95% of the public will never see.

But we saw this before with Dot cons,tech stocks,energy futures,solar and real estate funds in 2004,big names get in at the start to lend credence,then IPO hits and the big names make bank and pull out.

You really do not have to have a product,well you do but it just has to look like it is in a devolvement stage and it is a better mouse trap,the original ones make bank and pull out and everybody else takes the hit if it flops.

If you have 50 -60 million to invest,you are not going to invest in a corner store,it’s like flipping houses but with stock.

But it is speculation to say the feds are talking about a 25% inflation adjustment in September,if they do,it devalues everybody’s bottom line by 25%,so the timing could throw a wrench into the works.

If I tried to collect money for a product I cannot produce,I would be in jail.

Why California? It expensive and most are leaving? Because California is still the tech funding capital of the country,so why would they look for tech funding if they have heavyweights in their corner like Ford and Amazon?

Unless of course they do not plan on sticking around,kinda like fluffers.

[313WX]

The article cites Rivian is one of Michigan's most valuable companies. Didn't I read in recent months they were moving back to California?

Not only that, but all rumors over the past couple of weeks indicate their 2nd assembly plant [[creating up to 7,500 jobs with battery technology facilities) is going to open in the Dallas-Fort Worth area.

I know some Rivian fans and Michigan / midwestern folks who are really salty about that, for numerous reasons.

[313WX]

It is interesting to watch all of this play out.

The majority of most fleets,UPS,FedEx,Amazon etc. is with the 16 foot step vans - or most know them as bread trucks.

There was a company in Cali - Workhorse- Workhorse was bought out by Utilimaster who is the last manufacturer,after buying everybody else out,was funded and folding even after a Chinese investment of 35 million.

Because of little interest.

Lordstown motors funded with a loan from GM of 35 million says they also have a standing order of 100,000 vehicles.

There is another one that shut down after being investigated for fraud because they were excepting monies without producing vehicles or meeting promised deadlines.

At 80 billion this becomes really the only serious player that is well funded and could dominate the market before others could get a serious foothold.

Unless somebody really nails the meat of the delivery trucks,the 16’ step van,you could really take a Prius or a Tesla chassis and stick a box on them for inner city deliveries.

Like post office size trucks,but then to get the same capacity,they would have to double the fleet and labor pool to drive it.

The post office is in the bidding process for 200,000 electric or hybrid or gas powered delivery trucks,Ford combined with Oshkosh,who is the military truck builder/supplier is one of the bidders.

But as a gas powered and not hybrid or electric like the other bidders.

You would think if Ford is into Rivian they would be placing that bid as a EV versus fossil fuel driven.

So there is a standing order of 400,000 EVs but nobody has been able to fill them and the one company that was actually building them ,ran out of funds because of not enough interest.

Not to go politics but politics is playing a major role in this with making incentives for potential purchasers and funding research to the tune of billions.

Like what happened in solar,a upstart could capitalize on that but that is all subjective to change on a dime according to who is in the main administration.

Solar was in a roll until it stopped being incentivized then the market fell out and repeated that cycle in every country in the world.

It appears as the objective is with making grocery getter trucks for the general market verses the needs of Amazon and its standing order.

Lordstown as of now is the only one that is or can produce a higher GVW rated truck that can be used in fleets.

Too bad Lordstown can't find a customer who's willing to buy them.

[CR75]

I will add that their product lineup the R1T and the R1S has a *starting* price of $67,500, when/if they finally go on sale. Hardly mainstream. How they will generate any meaningful sales out of that is a mystery to me.

[313WX]

I will add that their product lineup the R1T and the R1S has a *starting* price of $67,500, when/if they finally go on sale. Hardly mainstream. How they will generate any meaningful sales out of that is a mystery to me.

In all fairness, GM has proven it can work.

Huge volume / market share isn't necessary to make huge profits. Instead, you just target the relatively few customers who can afford to pay $70K+ for your cars.

[Richard]

Too bad Lordstown can't find a customer who's willing to buy them.

The problem is they are pushing hard to pass the charge per mile according to your carbon output.

They already passed the monies to fund a group that will set up how to implement it.

If they put the cart before the horse on that,transport as it is will become extremely expensive and the days of free shipping will be gone.

Its their way of saying,you WILL be driving an EV.

I find it kinda strange that they are looking to shift the burden directly to none EV and saying it is more cost effective to run EV,until they have to charge extra for the EV to make up for the gas tax.

It appears as though they are many years away from actually having a commercial EV vehicle that all of these companies are saying they have standing orders for.

Of course without reading the standing order,the delivery date could actually be 2065.

[Richard]

I will add that their product lineup the R1T and the R1S has a *starting* price of $67,500, when/if they finally go on sale. Hardly mainstream. How they will generate any meaningful sales out of that is a mystery to me.

Creative financing,with vehicles it is about how many you can put on the books carrying paper,the actual vehicle is secondary.

Most only care about how much it costs them per month.

Look at how many 70,000 plus trucks are on the road now.

What would kill the truck market in a nano second is if the insurance companies actually started classifying them as commercial vehicles,as a majority are used as commercial but not registered or insured or road taxed as such.

[JBMcB]

Lordstown as of now is the only one that is or can produce a higher GVW rated truck that can be used in fleets.

Lordstown wants to build large trucks. The last vehicle made in the Lordstown assembly plant was the Chevy Cruze, which means the plant is set up for compact car production. Retooling a line for a different size vehicle costs a lot of money, but it's doable.

What costs a *ton* of money is the paint shop. A truck body and carrier won't physically fit into a paint shop built for a compact car. It's not a matter of retooling, you have to tear the paint shop down and build a new one. This is a *significant* expense, to the point it might be more cost effective to just build a new building.

[Richard]

Lordstown wants to build large trucks. The last vehicle made in the Lordstown assembly plant was the Chevy Cruze, which means the plant is set up for compact car production. Retooling a line for a different size vehicle costs a lot of money, but it's doable.

What costs a *ton* of money is the paint shop. A truck body and carrier won't physically fit into a paint shop built for a compact car. It's not a matter of retooling, you have to tear the paint shop down and build a new one. This is a *significant* expense, to the point it might be more cost effective to just build a new building.

When Utilitimaster bought out the other companies,that left 4 facilities dormant,when talking about marriages one would think to target that market.

Remove the drivetrain on a step van and there is 30” of dead space underneath 18’ long,they could fit 5 Tesla batteries in there.

That’s why personally think that none of this is about the commercial market.

A: Amazon would require step vans 10,000 gvw and up
B: when given the opportunity to bid for 200,000 commercial vehicles,Ford places a gasoline powered option only bid while the others place EV and EV/Gas.

My 1 ton stakebed has a 10,000 gvw but if I remember right Rivian had stated it has a 50% reduction in battery storage length when pulling a load.

Lordstown I believe was at 7500 gvw the Cali company was at 6000 gvw,unless they can supply that 10,000 to 18,000 commercial market it is kinda pointless and they seem to be really far off.

Back in the late 70s and early 80s we were messing around with hydraulic powered drivetrains run by either a pony gas motor or battery powered pump,it’s the same thing now how many years later and the Achilles heel is still with the battery.

But even at that,if the market in today’s money is looking at a $60,000 truck,how much is it going to be as the demand for the rare earth materials jumps up increasing costs,3 or more years down the road.

Considering the turbo V6 2021 Ford F-150 has a towing capacity of 14,000 pounds at a less cost then the Rivian,as it stands currently,it becomes an expensive trinket.

Like I posted though,at that point,they probably take a Tesla platform and stick a truck body in it and have the same thing.

This is what all of this reminds me of.

A few years back when the oil shale started to jump,there was a massive shortage of rail tanker cars.

A well known Canadian rail company steps up and has Albert Kahn out of Detroit design a rail car manufacturing facility in the south.

They got all of these retirement accounts,pension funds,federal funds and the city and state to put in hundreds of millions to build the facility from scratch,not for nothing but the Packard plant could have been easily converted to do the exact same thing.

Any rate plant gets built and never built one rail car before walking away and everybody else was left holding the bag,except for those that pocketed millions in the process

[davewindsor]

Lordstown wants to build large trucks. The last vehicle made in the Lordstown assembly plant was the Chevy Cruze, which means the plant is set up for compact car production. Retooling a line for a different size vehicle costs a lot of money, but it's doable.

What costs a *ton* of money is the paint shop. A truck body and carrier won't physically fit into a paint shop built for a compact car. It's not a matter of retooling, you have to tear the paint shop down and build a new one. This is a *significant* expense, to the point it might be more cost effective to just build a new building.

I don't think you know what you are talking about with Lordstown. Everything is still on track to start production in late September. They already built 52 trucks from the production line for national safety testing.

Let's assume what you said had any merit, which is doesn't. Ok, so why didn't Lordstown just move their paint shop to another area of their plant? The plant is 6.5m sq. ft and they are only using 30% of the plant. There is even talk of Lordstown renting out the other 70% for extra income. https://www.theverge.com/2021/8/11/2...-manufacturing

BTW, Lordstown has online tours of their plant on their website and those ceilings are really high from the videos. You say a truck can't fit in there? Prove it. Just because it produced the Chevy Cruze doesn't prove anything.

But that's besides the point because everything is already set up for production. They still have $366m in cash on hand along with another $400m guaranteed by a hedge fund in can they don't get the ATVM Energy Dept loan that Tesla, Ford, Fisker and Nissan got [[totaling over $8.4B). The new CEO was brought over from the Icahn Group who has a track record of being a turnaround agent in other automotive companies.

You don't know what you are talking about.

[Richard]

^ ummm not for nothing but in Lordstowns own words.

U.S. electric truck maker Lordstown Motors said on Tuesday there was “substantial doubt” about its ability to continue as a going concern in the next year because of problems funding the production of its vehicle, causing its shares to plummet.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/08/elec...ares-tank.html

They lost 75% value of their shares and are losing 125 million per 1/4.

In May, short seller Hindenburg Research claimed the company misled investors, including using “fake” orders to raise capital for its Endurance electric pickup. The short seller also said the pickup was years away from production. Lordstown has maintained it’s on track to start making the vehicle in September.

[JBMcB]

I don't think you know what you are talking about with Lordstown.

My wife worked on the last retooling there before they closed it down. She's been doing new factory spinups and retools for 20 years, including metal centers, general assembly and paint shops. She currently runs a team of engineers working on a dozen factories. Pretty sure she knows what she is talking about.

[Jimaz]

I heard on the radio the other day that there are only two brands of semi-trucks still built in the U.S. That's Peterbilt and Kenworth. Is that true?

[313WX]

I heard on the radio the other day that there are only two brands of semi-trucks still built in the U.S. That's Peterbilt and Kenworth. Is that true?

Not sure about Kenworth, but Peterbilt does have a large assembly plant in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex [[Denton) as well.

[casscorridor]

Detroit of course has an advantage in terms of auto manufacturing supply chain. But as automakers become increasingly like tech companies, California wins out with its robust tech ecosystem and ability to attract top talent. Michigan has also been extremely hostile to startup automakers with its outdated dealership model. On the inverse, Michigan offers a substantially lower cost of living whereas in California even employees with six figure salaries are priced out of many areas. Hopefully Rivian will maintain its presence in and benefit from industry agglomeration in both regions, automotive manufacturing and technology respectively.

[davewindsor]

^ ummm not for nothing but in Lordstowns own words.

U.S. electric truck maker Lordstown Motors said on Tuesday there was “substantial doubt” about its ability to continue as a going concern in the next year because of problems funding the production of its vehicle, causing its shares to plummet.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/08/elec...ares-tank.html

They lost 75% value of their shares and are losing 125 million per 1/4.

In May, short seller Hindenburg Research claimed the company misled investors, including using “fake” orders to raise capital for its Endurance electric pickup. The short seller also said the pickup was years away from production. Lordstown has maintained it’s on track to start making the vehicle in September.

The Hindenburg report was already debunked by Lordstown on June 14th: "The Special Committee’s investigation concluded that the Hindenburg Report is, in significant respects, false and misleading. In particular, its challenges to the viability of Lordstown Motors’ technology and timeline to start of production are not accurate. " https://investor.lordstownmotors.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lordstown-motors-reports-results-special-committee-investigation

Also from that article: "The Special Committee concluded that while various factors could lead to delays in the start of production, the projected September 2021 start of production remains achievable..."

Again, you are quoting a CNBC article about going concern made June 8th. The Special Committee report was made on June 14th. Also, since then, you had a lot of things happen, as I stated before: They still have $366m in cash on hand along with another $400m guaranteed by a hedge fund in can they don't get the ATVM Energy Dept loan that Tesla, Ford, Fisker and Nissan got [[totaling over $8.4B). The new CEO was brought over from the Icahn Group who has a track record of being a turnaround agent in other automotive companies.

[Richard]

The Hindenburg report was already debunked by Lordstown on June 14th: "The Special Committee’s investigation concluded that the Hindenburg Report is, in significant respects, false and misleading. In particular, its challenges to the viability of Lordstown Motors’ technology and timeline to start of production are not accurate. " https://investor.lordstownmotors.com/news-releases/news-release-details/lordstown-motors-reports-results-special-committee-investigation

Also from that article: "The Special Committee concluded that while various factors could lead to delays in the start of production, the projected September 2021 start of production remains achievable..."

Again, you are quoting a CNBC article about going concern made June 8th. The Special Committee report was made on June 14th. Also, since then, you had a lot of things happen, as I stated before: They still have $366m in cash on hand along with another $400m guaranteed by a hedge fund in can they don't get the ATVM Energy Dept loan that Tesla, Ford, Fisker and Nissan got [[totaling over $8.4B). The new CEO was brought over from the Icahn Group who has a track record of being a turnaround agent in other automotive companies.

De-bunked ?

This is August 26 2021.

The Justice Department reportedly has launched a probe into the company’s dealings and the electric-truck maker has disclosed a SEC inquiry.
Lordstown recently added a “going concern” warning to regulatory filings, following the departure of key executives and doubts over its order book, with the company clarifying that orders are not binding.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/lo...article_inline

You cannot debunk something that is coming directly from the company.

Notice it also reads - Workhorse lost 52 million on their stock investment with Lordstown.

Workhorse was providing the last mile in commercial vehicles.

They are also admitting that their claimed orders of 100,000 trucks were not binding.


What it clarifies is these companies that are claiming standing orders are not being honest to investors.

Which goes back to my point,

If Ford is invested in Rivian for the long term and not just looking for a quick buck on an IPO and lending their name for credibility,then they would have never submitted their bid to USPS for 200,000 units as gas powered.

If they knew there was a company out there that was capable of producing a EV truck ready to go,then they would have submitted the bid as a EV contender,like others have,and worked a deal with that company in order to get the contract.

An order for 200,000 vehicles is not really something to sneeze at.

If they were knowledgeable about Rivian actually being able to produce quantities,they would have submitted a bid based on a EV.

With Ford submitting that bid as a ICE bid,they are saying that it will be a long time before EVs are ready for the commercial market on any type of scale.

I do not think none of them will begin production in any kind of numbers outside of a few test vehicles,if they do they will be the only business in the world that is not having supply chain and chip shortages.

[davewindsor]

De-bunked ?

This is August 26 2021.

The Justice Department reportedly has launched a probe into the companyÂ’s dealings and the electric-truck maker has disclosed a SEC inquiry.
Lordstown recently added a “going concern” warning to regulatory filings, following the departure of key executives and doubts over its order book, with the company clarifying that orders are not binding.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/lo...article_inline

The going concern issue was before they got the $400 guarantee from the hedge fund. That's not an issue anymore. They're going to start rolling out their production runs in a few weeks. They already had the robots build 52 trucks for the national safety inspection.

So what if the justice department launches an investigation. They are always investigating companies. They haven't been charged or prosecuted, so it's meaningless. If you get audited, does that mean you committed tax fraud? Of course not. It's just an investigation.

The key executives sold their shares at $27. It's now trading at around $6.50. They didn't sell everything. If I was a Lordstown Exec, I would have sold a sizeable chunk of Lordstown shares at $27 a share too.

You cannot debunk something that is coming directly from the company.

If someone calls you a rapist, are you saying you can't deny the accusation as false because it comes directly from you? Don't be ridiculous. You say it's impossible because you were somewhere else that night. That's called debunking. How else will it get debunked? Taking someone to civil court for slander can take years.

Notice it also reads - Workhorse lost 52 million on their stock investment with Lordstown.

Workhorse was providing the last mile in commercial vehicles.

If you want to see a real joke of an automotive EV company and true meme stock look up the financials for workhorse. They have been a public company since 2016, have a $1.2B market cap, and their revenue for 2020 was $1.4M, but their cost of revenue was $13M. In 2019, their revenue was $376K. In 2018, their revenue was $763K. A national franchise mechanic shop makes more revenue than their EV truck conversions. Their biggest asset on their balance sheet was Lordstown stock which they got for use of their patents. Five years and what do you have to show for it?? That's why USPS pulled their order with Workhorse and went with Oshkosh.

They are also admitting that their claimed orders of 100,000 trucks were not binding.


What it clarifies is these companies that are claiming standing orders are not being honest to investors.

Of course they're not binding orders, the Lordstown Special Committee already said they're standing orders.

The only reason Rivian has such a high valuation is because Jeff Bezos said he'll buy 100,000 delivery trucks for Amazon from Rivian and has a $700M position in them. Does Lordstown have an $80B valuation? Of course not. It only has a market cap of $1.1B, which is a steal compared to Rivian. You want a good bet on a triple bagger, put your money in Lordstown. Over 20% is owned by ETFs and Mutual funds with Vanguard as the highest holder and most of the institutions are buying additional huge chunks at these bargain prices. Most of these funds are in at around $12-13 a share and buying [[they probably own about 30% now). Why?

Total shares are at 179M and last Wednesday over 108M shares switched hands shortly after the new CEO from the Icahn group was announced. [[Stock went from around $5 to $7.5 to $6.5). Something's brewing.

[Honky Tonk]

The going concern issue was before they got the $400 guarantee from the hedge fund.

400 bucks? You're talkin' some serious cash there.

[davewindsor]

400 bucks? You're talkin' some serious cash there.

$400m. I just got tired of repeating myself again and again to Richard on this thread.