Will the Gov EVER use science and data RE Covid-19 ?

[Bigdd]

Wondering if the Governor will ever begin to consider the "Science and Data" like she claims to be at every press conference.

The goal of the Stay-at-Home orders was supposed to slow the spread. There's no evidence really that it worked,.. as 66% of the people that got Covid were doing that, and also, as the green line shows in the graph below,.. the infections were likely already dropping well BEFORE the Governor's order began at midnight on 3/24.

Perhaps it helped a little? Lives were likely saved? .. especially if you don't factor in the ones that have been lost [[and will be lost) from not getting treatment for other conditions, suicides, etc.

But even if you falsely presume that it works perfectly,... don't you at some point have to look at the data?

Here's a graph from last Saturday [[ending May 23rd). Showing the New Covid cases.

NOW HERE'S WHERE ONE NEEDS TO BE SMARTER THAN A STALE BAGEL....

The stay at home doesn't prevent deaths,. [[at least not directly). Deaths are a percentage of cases,. and cases are a percentage of infections. THE GOAL IS TO REDUCE INFECTIONS.

Of course cases are a result of testing [[which takes a couple days to get results), and people go to the hospital a few days after symptoms begin,.. and symptoms are a week or two after the original infection [[I.E. "CONFIRMED CASES" get counted some 10-19 days after the initial infection).

So here I've drawn some lines. The yellow is a smoothing of the CASES in the graph,. the red line is the same line, but shifted left by 2 weeks, so as to show when the infections likely occurred.


So how far below ZERO does that red line have to get before we get our economy back?

[Dumpling]

You might like this article:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...e-of-covid-19/

Here is a case of the governors learning where their people were already
going and then running out in front of the crowd.

Well, yes, in some southern states, the governors waited quite a while until the stay at home party in their states were well under way. But it doesn't look like there was any significant subpopulation that was waiting for their governors' orders to stay at home - people that had been going out and about, but then just as soon as they heard the order, they stayed put.

Thank you to everyone for heeding the media alerts, learning about the science, washing hands, making masks and other PPE, wearing masks, social distancing, staying home.

Your graph dovetails with this elegantly.

[Dumpling]

Yes. If you scrutinize the state by state graphs in that article, there are very few cases where staying at home rose sharply IMMEDIATELY AFTER the governors' stay at home orders. [[Try to answer this: in which states did staying at home rise 20% or more after the date of their stay at home order? If anything staying at home decreased after the orders.) Then, adding to all that noncompliance, there are now frequent complaints about the governors not following the science and not opening up their economies. It makes it seem as though being a governor is a thankless job.

[GMan]

You might like this article:

...............
Thank you to everyone for heeding the media alerts, learning about the science, washing hands, making masks and other PPE, wearing masks, social distancing, staying home.

Your graph dovetails with this elegantly.

YES, Kudos to people for washing their hands! I hate it when I'm out in public and go to use a rest room only to see some one leave without washing their hands!
It's basic Health Hygiene people!

[Zacha341]

^^^ Hand washing is just common sense that is not so common. I don't need a governor to tell me to wash my hands. I've been doing so for decades. Especially as I started working more heavily with the public the last 10+ years.

Additionally, I always wash my hands the minute I get home... You don't have be OCD to want bacteria levels down especially transferred to you body by way of foods, cooking, etc. from dirty un-washed hands.

[aj3647]

^^^ Hand washing is just common sense that is not so common. I don't need a governor to tell me to wash my hands. I've been doing so for decades. Especially as I started working more heavily with the public the last 10+ years.

Additionally, I always wash my hands the minute I get home... You don't have be OCD to want bacteria levels down especially transferred to you body by way of foods, cooking, etc. from dirty un-washed hands.

Hand-washing is now a partisan issue.

https://www.washingtonian.com/2020/0...artisan-issue/

By a margin of ten percent, Republicans are less likely to say that they are “washing my hands or using disinfectant more frequently.” Thirty-eight percent of Republicans said yes, compared to 48 percent of Democrats.

[Meddle]

I had to break down and wash mine the other day after the grease gun I was trying to use got finicky and leaked grease all over them.

[Richard]

yea,because I care about the planet and do not waste our precious natural resources of water,I wash my hands when I shower once every two weeks.

I cannot believe they are pushing further destruction Of our planet and encouraging people to waste so much water.

I think it is a capitalistic approach way to make more money,the more water you use,the more they charge you and if you are hooked up to city sewer they charge you to dispose of it down the drain.

Last year in places like Arizona they were fining people for wasting water,now they want you to treat it like it is an unlimited resource.

Next they will be saying to run the tap for at least 5 minutes before brushing your teeth in case the virus climbed up inside.

Its bad enough that you guys stole my childhood,now you want to continue with this wanton waste of our natural resources and destroy what is left of the planet for future generations.

geez man,my water bill jumped up to $7 last month,y’all must be rich to be able to throw money away like that while wasting water.

Watch next they will be telling everybody to stand there with the refrigerator door wide open for at least 10 minutes while deciding what to get out of it just so they can jack the electricity usage up.

[Bigdd]

Some hospitals are reporting as many suicide deaths last month as they normally see in a year.

In 2018 there were around 1,550 suicide deaths in Michigan.
https://www.hometownlife.com/story/n...es/2871743001/

So instead of 129 a month we're seeing 1,550 ish a month because of the lock-down?

Does that mean that the governor is responsible for 328 deaths for every week she continues the lock-down?

Discuss.

[Honky Tonk]

Some hospitals are reporting as many suicide deaths last month as they normally see in a year.

In 2018 there were around 1,550 suicide deaths in Michigan.
https://www.hometownlife.com/story/n...es/2871743001/

So instead of 129 a month we're seeing 1,550 ish a month because of the lock-down?

Does that mean that the governor is responsible for 328 deaths for every week she continues the lock-down?

Discuss.

I don't care for Whitmer, [[I think she's running her own little hustle) but I'm not going to blame her for the additional deaths. I think people have lost touch with themselves, and don't know what to do with themselves anymore. Alcohol is another major contrbuting factor. I'm on some group emails, and some of them say things like "a glass of wine, "Seinfeld", more wine, more Seinfeld... another day" etc. Or the discussion will turn to the latest alcohol product out on the market. I'm lucky, I have a lot of varied interests, do volunteer work, gardening, projects; my interests keep me occupied. Some days I end up dead dog tired. I think a lot of the suicides had issues to begin with and the lockdown exaggerated the problem.

[Zacha341]

^^^Many Detroiter's are not big Whitmer fans [[and to think she thought it was just the up-north folks a-marching on the capital!)!

For sure the lock-down was too broad-brush, based [[and California/ NYC is threatening to lock-down some more) but no one had the heart to specifically apply it to the high-number areas. Sigh... I too keep busy [[recently took up outdoor cycling for exercise) and was fortunate to have a job that converted to online. But I also lost one of my employment streams temporarily.

The financial strain is a bit much. The daily negative news joyful as well. I thankfully just filed my taxes so the small refund will help.

Yeah Kroger and Meijers probably saw their beer, wine and liquor sales soar! They prove an alternate if you didn't wan-na to go to an actual 'likka' store! Hah.

[Gistok]

Wondering if the Governor will ever begin to consider the "Science and Data" like she claims to be at every press conference.

The goal of the Stay-at-Home orders was supposed to slow the spread. There's no evidence really that it worked,.. as 66% of the people that got Covid were doing that, and also, as the green line shows in the graph below,.. the infections were likely already dropping well BEFORE the Governor's order began at midnight on 3/24.

Perhaps it helped a little? Lives were likely saved? .. especially if you don't factor in the ones that have been lost [[and will be lost) from not getting treatment for other conditions, suicides, etc.

But even if you falsely presume that it works perfectly,... don't you at some point have to look at the data?

Here's a graph from last Saturday [[ending May 23rd). Showing the New Covid cases.

NOW HERE'S WHERE ONE NEEDS TO BE SMARTER THAN A STALE BAGEL....

The stay at home doesn't prevent deaths,. [[at least not directly). Deaths are a percentage of cases,. and cases are a percentage of infections. THE GOAL IS TO REDUCE INFECTIONS.

Of course cases are a result of testing [[which takes a couple days to get results), and people go to the hospital a few days after symptoms begin,.. and symptoms are a week or two after the original infection [[I.E. "CONFIRMED CASES" get counted some 10-19 days after the initial infection).

So here I've drawn some lines. The yellow is a smoothing of the CASES in the graph,. the red line is the same line, but shifted left by 2 weeks, so as to show when the infections likely occurred.


So how far below ZERO does that red line have to get before we get our economy back?

OK Bigdd... it's now almost a month later... and it looks like Whitmer did things better than just about any other governor did.

Just look at the mess the southern states are in... the ones that didn't provide guidelines for masks or social distancing... how are the numbers in Florida and Texas doing right now? Not so good... with 3,500 new cases a day. Looks like Whitmer came out pretty good.

Just keep those southerners out of Michigan... we don't need to get reinfected because they have poor judgement.

Glad to see that a great many Trump supporters have some common sense with staying safe, and stayed away from Tulsa.

Wear a mask when inside public spaces, and yes... wash your hands!

Oh... and one last thing... looks like Whitmer is leagues ahead of many other governors when it comes to "science and data"....

[Zacha341]

^^^ Yeah, Michigan is just fly-over country [[withstanding our power as a battle ground-swing state politically speaking):

A bunch of non-progressives bumpkins, with that odious 'Detroit' factor... please continue to leave us to ourselves...... !!

[Richard]

Just keep those southerners out of Michigan... we don't need to get reinfected because they have poor judgement.

AJ not that you have noticed but southerners are not exactly tripping over themselves heading up north.

Almost as bad as New York saying it was blocking Fla from visiting,short memory of how it was New Yorkers on spring break that spread it here.

Not many southerners that I know anyways are waking up and thinking about traveling to New York,the flow happens in the reverse.

Wake me up when the science actually agrees from one day to the next,outside of that it is all speculation and judging in hindsight what actually works or not.

[Zacha341]

^^^ Wake me too. The lack of agreement is precisely why I WILL err on caution - we filled enough body bags here for me not too. Heck I was an avid hand-washer pre. COVID. Kept my hands out of my face for decades as I work with the public. Avoided buffets not a problem, etc.

Basic civility's eroding, so staying away from big crowds is working out too. I need not find myself in the middle of a 'wilding' scene where people start to stomp over each for a sale, a panic, a politic or whatever.

[Gistok]

Back before the 3rd week of March most folks in the USA didn't take COVID-19 too seriously... but with the explosion of outbreaks in NY, NJ and MI [[and other states)... smart people in many states learned all about social distancing and proper virus etiquette. And then there are the not so smart ones, who believe politics over scientists... who still believe that the virus is no worse than the flu... and who don't know when the president is kidding or not...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifKbwDf51bA

[Bigdd]

OK Bigdd... it's now almost a month later... and it looks like Whitmer did things better than just about any other governor did.

.................. Looks like Whitmer came out pretty good.

Oh... and one last thing... looks like Whitmer is leagues ahead of many other governors when it comes to "science and data"....

Could be.

Another possible explanation is that the states that had hot-spots 3 months ago [[and now likely have 30-35% of their population with immunity) are seeing a down-tick as a result. And the states that successfully avoided Covid for so many months are now getting it finally.

Hard to know which is deserving of more of the credit, Our governor for our state getting hammered early [[and getting through the brunt of it early),.. or their states for dodging it for so long.

Perhaps we'll have some clue 6 months from now when we look back at deaths per capita for each of the states.

I suppose it can't be avoided long term no matter what you do. I think it's just going to work it's way into every crevice of society. Having some states get pounded 2 months ago,.. and others months from now means the demand for supplies is spread out,.. and the huge delay by these often red states means they'll have lots of access to supplies, and that they weren't competing so fiercely for masks, gloves, bleach and ventilators months ago when we were desperate for them.

The Blue states took the early hit, and got production of all that stuff ramp'd up.

Sure would be nice if this mess would just go away.

[Honky Tonk]

Back before the 3rd week of March most folks in the USA didn't take COVID-19 too seriously... but with the explosion of outbreaks in NY, NJ and MI [[and other states)... smart people in many states learned all about social distancing and proper virus etiquette. And then there are the not so smart ones, who believe politics over scientists... who still believe that the virus is no worse than the flu... and who don't know when the president is kidding or not...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifKbwDf51bA

You mean like Pelosi and Cuomo telling people there's nothing to worry about and encouraging them to come to Chinatown and party hearty? Or Bernie encouraging people to car pool to attend his rally on 3-13 in Detroit?

[Gistok]

You mean like Pelosi and Cuomo telling people there's nothing to worry about and encouraging them to come to Chinatown and party hearty? Or Bernie encouraging people to car pool to attend his rally on 3-13 in Detroit?

Et tu Honky?

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/tr...and-chinatown/

[Honky Tonk]

Et tu Honky?

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/tr...and-chinatown/

Maybe we should look @ something with a little more substance than one liners, eh Giz?


https://www.speaker.gov/newsroom/22420

https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/loca...atown/2240247/

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/cuom...york-city.html


Sorry, looks like the Bernie / Rashid Rally website's been shut down.

[rb336]

You mean like Pelosi and Cuomo telling people there's nothing to worry about and encouraging them to come to Chinatown and party hearty? Or Bernie encouraging people to car pool to attend his rally on 3-13 in Detroit?

The 3-13 rally was scheduled before the breadth of the covid pandemic were known. It had the essentially boiler-plate car pool statement. That was removed before the event - and those who were known to be attending received emails. That event was also before the lock down order.

[Honky Tonk]

The 3-13 rally was scheduled before the breadth of the covid pandemic were known. It had the essentially boiler-plate car pool statement. That was removed before the event - and those who were known to be attending received emails. That event was also before the lock down order.

Yes, it was before the lockdown order. The pandemic was already known to exist. Businesses had already started taking precautions to assure customers it was safe to visit their place of business. The Bernie ad encouraging people to carpool because of parking constraints, was up for a good month after the rally was over. I posted it elsewhere but don't feel like digging for it. A friend, who is a staunch Bernie supporter and worked at the rally, was concerned about infection, got hold of a mask to wear, and was told she couldn't wear it by those in charge. People, at that time, were foo-fooing Trump for cancelling flights to and from China. The WHO [[not the band) had declared the Coronavirus a pandemic.

[Zacha341]

Friday, March 13th was the last day for public schools in Michigan, followed by NY State's closing theirs that following Monday. I knew it was serious then. Two big art and other events were cancelled that very weekend.

That following two weeks we started to see the steady avalanche of people getting very sick in clusters per events [[including notable folk like DPD Police Chief Craig). And our ER's filling up -- the first deaths waves.

I was starting to wear a mask [[just a bandana) at about that time. People looked at me like I was crazy, but I had a feeling from looking at Asian media we would need to go that direction sooner than later.

I began to avoid crowds [[I already had stocks of TP and basics) as my jobs turned into working-from-home over night - and stayed that way.

[Richard]

^ you see what actually started it all?

Friday the 13th

If you guys have picked any other day you would not have jinxed yourself.

[Zacha341]

^^^The COVID cared little about the 'they' per the calendar construct of date 'picking'. Or the conventions of men or superstitions of nations, islands, institutions, or leaders I'm thinking!

It just wants the ease of a host! By way of rail, boat or plane, gatherings etc. by the way of droplets/ aerosol otherwise entering your respiratory system.