Third Anniversary of the Q Line

[renf]

Three years ago today, the Q line began operating. It would be interesting to see a month by month tabulation of passenger counts for the last three years.
Since the Q line was announced in about 2014, there have been several billion dollars of investments in properties within walking distance of the Q line. The Q line may have played some role in those investment decisions.

[JonWylie]

Duggan was recently on the record stating if things go right, light rail on Michigan and Jefferson would be possibilities. If this comes to fruition, some of the issues and mistakes with the QLine could be worked out on the new lines and we could actually have some semblance of a light rail system.

[gumby]

Duggan was recently on the record stating if things go right, light rail on Michigan and Jefferson would be possibilities. If this comes to fruition, some of the issues and mistakes with the QLine could be worked out on the new lines and we could actually have some semblance of a light rail system.

They better make it center running with dedicated lanes and signal priority or it will be just as useless as the QLine.

[Bigdd]

It would be interesting to see a month by month tabulation of passenger counts for the last three years.

Unfortunately, they do not permit us to have that information.

They are a private entity, and as such, they do not feel the need to report to us.

The one piece of data the city managed to negotiate into the agreement is that they must provide a total ridership number once a year.

I believe the numbers come out the first week of May. [[last week).

When it opened, officials expected ridership to be 8,000 per day

Riders per day for all of 2017 was 2,700
Riders per day for all of 2018 was 3,280
Riders per day in early 2019 was 2,490, but the years figures haven't been released yet.

Because of Covid,.. the numbers that come out any time now for '19 will be the last relevant ones [[for spotting a trend) for another 2 years,..as Covid will make the 2020 numbers artificially low.

[Scottathew]

I would rather see center-run BRT with dedicated bus lanes, elevated platforms, pay-at-the-platform.

I don't see what the advantages are to rail as opposed to bus.

[Seven&wyo]

I would rather see center-run BRT with dedicated bus lanes, elevated platforms, pay-at-the-platform.

I don't see what the advantages are to rail as opposed to bus.

Oh Christ, this will be the start to a 4 page argument if Brt it Lrt is the way to go...


Again

[Scottathew]

Oh Christ, this will be the start to a 4 page argument if Brt it Lrt is the way to go...


Again

You're welcome!

I should have included a snippet from JohnWylie, I was responding to his statements about possible expansion of street cars to other places in Detroit.

At-grade rail has only disadvantages.

[softailrider]

Duggan was recently on the record stating if things go right, light rail on Michigan and Jefferson would be possibilities. If this comes to fruition, some of the issues and mistakes with the QLine could be worked out on the new lines and we could actually have some semblance of a light rail system.

By “recently” did you mean before or after the shit hit the fan with the Coronavirus thing hit the fan?

[Seven&wyo]

By “recently” did you mean before or after the shit hit the fan with the Coronavirus thing hit the fan?

After. He mentioned it after announcing a new Director [[CEO?) to DDOT I think a few days ago

[JonWylie]

By “recently” did you mean before or after the shit hit the fan with the Coronavirus thing hit the fan?

No, recent as in the last couple of days in this article. And a short blurb here.

"I also think it's within the realm of possibility, depending what happens in the national elections, there could be a national infrastructure bill that could have the potential for light rail," Duggan said, and wants Detroit to be "ready if the opportunity presents itself, whether it's on Jefferson [[Avenue), whether it's on Michigan [[Avenue), we're looking at a lot of different choices."

It seems pretty clear he's referring to Biden getting elected. Duggan and Biden are pretty buddy buddy and Biden has already mentioned more national infrastructure including trains. Maybe if they get a solid plan down and advertise it to the state and Detroit, it will drive turn out.

[DetroitSoldier]

I would support the addition of a line on East Jefferson. The stretch between downtown and St Jean is probably the most fully developed and commercially diverse artery not named Woodward. Adding transportation infrastructure would probably improve development going down towards the river as well. Tourists prefer trains to buses. I would bet a train line would see the addition of hotels along that stretch.

[EGrant]

Biden has an infrastructure proposal, but like many "shovel ready projects" I'm not going to get too excited even if he gets elected.

If you scroll through some bullet points about highway and car infrastructure programs, you get to this: "As president, Biden will aim to provide all Americans in municipalities of more than 100,000 people with quality public transportation by 2030. To that end, he’ll increase flexible federal investments, helping cities and towns to install light rail networks and to improve existing transit and bus lines."

I guess that could mean a light rail expansion? The whole thing is a generic collection of buzzwords and phrases that you tend to see during elections. I'd imagine Duggan has had some more specific conversations.

[JonWylie]

Biden has an infrastructure proposal, but like many "shovel ready projects" I'm not going to get too excited even if he gets elected.

If you scroll through some bullet points about highway and car infrastructure programs, you get to this: "As president, Biden will aim to provide all Americans in municipalities of more than 100,000 people with quality public transportation by 2030. To that end, he’ll increase flexible federal investments, helping cities and towns to install light rail networks and to improve existing transit and bus lines."

I guess that could mean a light rail expansion? The whole thing is a generic collection of buzzwords and phrases that you tend to see during elections. I'd imagine Duggan has had some more specific conversations.

I think Duggan's "relationship" with Biden and Duggan's words are more what indicates this might be more than just a vague proposal

[softailrider]

Yeah, here’s hoping there’s some federal / private money available for that rail expansion. That cash cow spigot, that was the casino tax money sure has disappeared, for now anyway. Also, not sure how popular mass transit is going to be in a Coronavirus world, if you have other alternatives available.

But what do I know? I’m just a suburbanite who likes to drive his car, alone.

[Jason]

The QLine isn't conducive to expanding to light rail. You could add a mile or something to keep it as a trolley that goes more places [[maybe an expansion to Henry Ford Hospital on one end and Eastern Market on the other), but to make it into a light rail system you'd have to rebuild a lot of it.

- The the problems the QLine experiences from being mixed in traffic will only be magnified by an expansion.

- The QLine doesn't have real stations. They're basically just bus stops with a raised curb. They're not physically large enough to hold a large number of people waiting for a train. The platforms aren't long enough for longer light rail trains. Proper stations would need to be built.

- Right now the vehicles are partially run on batteries, and idk how that affects expanding the system.

- The current operations and maintenance facility isn't big enough to store more vehicles. You'd have to build another one.

- There's still the problem of spending extra money to duplicate existing service, but with lower service quality. It's slower and less reliable and goes less far than existing buses.



I've looked into a People Mover expansion along Jefferson to Van Dyke with some amount of detail.

A PM expansion over that route would be faster than driving during rush hour and competitive with driving during other times of the day. It would take 7 minutes to travel, including station dwell time. In my math I use a frequency of every 5 minutes, which is frequent enough for people to painlessly transfer from buses. In other words, it could replace existing bus routes, and even with the added transfer time, would still be faster.

The operating costs of a transit line can be estimated by using the vehicle revenue hours, from schedules, and multiplying that by the operating cost per vehicle revenue hour info from the FTA.

The buses along the route which would be replaced currently cost $18,000 per day to operate.

The PM expansion would cost between $21,000 and $33,000 per year [[2013 and 2018 costs, it changes year to year).

But that's not the whole story. The People Mover provides transit police services to DDOT and the QLine, which increases the operating costs on paper, despite being reimbursed by those agencies. In 2017 that was $2.7 million, 15% of their total $18.2 operating expenses that year. I can't find how much the QLine pays.

Taking that into account, the "true" cost of operating the expansion would be $17,900-28,000 per day.

On top of that, many of the PM's current operating expenses are fixed costs, or at least scale efficiently. Doubling the amount of service doesn't double the amount of costs. You don't need double the people to watch the security cameras, you don't need double the administrators, etc. So that range should be on the conservative side, it could very well cost less.

Tilting things even more in the PM's favor would be the few thousand dollars of fare money from new riders who would otherwise not have ridden the bus.

All in all, in terms of operating costs, a People Mover expansion would cost about the same to operate as the current buses.


In terms of capital costs, it would probably cost between $350-500 million to build. In order to figure out if the expansion would pay for itself, you would need to figure out how it would affect property values, and how any growth would affect income taxes. You also have to do math involving interest rates from bonds, inflation, the amount of growth that's expected anyway, and other things, which I don't know how to do.

I do know, though, that LCA raised $250 million from bonds backed by a TIF, in an area with less total taxable value [[I don't have the numbers on hand) than Jefferson. Jefferson already has a lot of valuable properties which would become even more valuable, but it also has a lot of great riverfront land that imo would be very attractive if it was so conveniently connected to downtown. For income taxes, if the expansion caused 2,000 more people to live along the route than otherwise, and they made $50,000 each and paid the 2.5% city resident income tax, that would raise $75 million over 30 years. The money made from a TIF and income taxes already goes into the ballpark of the capital costs. I imagine the more the impacts were studied, the more capital costs would be covered.

[EGrant]

Great stuff, Jason. I hadn't thought about the PM in those terms, as it's mostly dismissed as a carnival ride in its current state. Vancouver has turned their version of the People Mover into a very efficient system, so it's definitely possible.

[Lowell]

Imagine getting on a bus with wide individual cushioned seats that recline with leg rests, wifi, and perfect 70 degree climate control winter or summer. In the back, behind an anteroom hand wash sinks and mirrors, is a separate men and women's restroom. The bus pulls away silently and with its super-suspension no bumps are felt. Since it is not on rails it weaves effortlessly through traffic, it sensors coordinating with traffic lights to minimize delays.

That's what I want.

Fantasy? No. I rode on just that for the 150 mile from San Miguel de Allende to Mexico City--seven years ago.

I will argue that for less than the cost of the Qline, and any additions, and operational costs that option could be offered instead.

And did I mention that it would not have to stop at the Boulevard? Or Royal Oak? Or Pontiac?

[LongGone06]

Imagine getting on a bus with wide individual cushioned seats that recline with leg rests, wifi, and perfect 70 degree climate control winter or summer. In the back, behind an anteroom hand wash sinks and mirrors, is a separate men and women's restroom. The bus pulls away silently and with its super-suspension no bumps are felt. Since it is not on rails it weaves effortlessly through traffic, it sensors coordinating with traffic lights to minimize delays.

That's what I want.

Fantasy? No. I rode on just that for the 150 mile from San Miguel de Allende to Mexico City--seven years ago.

I will argue that for less than the cost of the Qline, and any additions, and operational costs that option could be offered instead.

And did I mention that it would not have to stop at the Boulevard? Or Royal Oak? Or Pontiac?

Unfortunately, in order for a bus system to have wide-spread appeal and ridership, the "bus" has to overcome a decades-long negative perception within the general population--a perception that does not seem to hinder rail systems, particularly in cities with subways. They're certainly are cost and efficiency arguments in favor of a flexible bus system, and perhaps future generations will not be hampered by these negative perceptions.

[Bigdd]

They're certainly are cost and efficiency arguments in favor of a flexible bus system, and perhaps future generations will not be hampered by these negative perceptions.

That's an understatement.

Light rail is not only less flexible, slower, and able to be completely incapacitated by one poorly parked car or one breakdown, but it also costs roughly TEN TIMES as much per passenger mile.

So even if the super-luxo buses Lowell speaks of cost twice as much as regular buses,.. we're still talking about something 5x as effective as light rail. And that's just in terms of cost,.. add in the extra flexibility and speed,.. and you're talking 6-7x the value.

Light rail [[esp grade level in traffic lanes) is the single worst and most expensive system you can get. And for a poor area like Detroit,.. that makes it a disaster.

[Metro25]

It feels like it's been around longer than that.

Overall, despite the shit it gets from internet edglords the Q-line is great. Every time I've used it the cars come mostly on time and the ride was very pleasant. If I lived downtown I would use it regularly.

Here's hoping for dedicated lane additions on Michigan and Jefferson and up Woodward.

The benefits of light rail cannot be overstated, permanent fixed routes, higher rider capacity, doesn't break down the roads with excess weight and runs on electricity.

[Richard]

Imagine getting on a bus with wide individual cushioned seats that recline with leg rests, wifi, and perfect 70 degree climate control winter or summer. In the back, behind an anteroom hand wash sinks and mirrors, is a separate men and women's restroom. The bus pulls away silently and with its super-suspension no bumps are felt. Since it is not on rails it weaves effortlessly through traffic, it sensors coordinating with traffic lights to minimize delays.

That's what I want.

Fantasy? No. I rode on just that for the 150 mile from San Miguel de Allende to Mexico City--seven years ago.

I will argue that for less than the cost of the Qline, and any additions, and operational costs that option could be offered instead.

And did I mention that it would not have to stop at the Boulevard? Or Royal Oak? Or Pontiac?

We have been doing that for the last 10 years.

https://www.redcoachusa.com/schedule/

[Atticus]

Biden has an infrastructure proposal, but like many "shovel ready projects" I'm not going to get too excited even if he gets elected.

If you scroll through some bullet points about highway and car infrastructure programs, you get to this: "As president, Biden will aim to provide all Americans in municipalities of more than 100,000 people with quality public transportation by 2030. To that end, he’ll increase flexible federal investments, helping cities and towns to install light rail networks and to improve existing transit and bus lines."

I guess that could mean a light rail expansion? The whole thing is a generic collection of buzzwords and phrases that you tend to see during elections. I'd imagine Duggan has had some more specific conversations.

Even if Biden does get elected, the GOP is likely to retain control of the Senate. As such, there will be no/minimal infrastructure spending. Such a bill would be very popular, and the GOP will make sure Biden doesn’t get that recognition.

It would basically be the result of “Whitmer’s fix the d—- Roads” on a national level. Just like the GOP won’t allow any realistic highway plan to happen in the state legislature for a democratic governor, a GOP senate would find a way to block it for a Democrat President.

[Atticus]

That's an understatement.

Light rail is not only less flexible, slower, and able to be completely incapacitated by one poorly parked car or one breakdown, but it also costs roughly TEN TIMES as much per passenger mile.

So even if the super-luxo buses Lowell speaks of cost twice as much as regular buses,.. we're still talking about something 5x as effective as light rail. And that's just in terms of cost,.. add in the extra flexibility and speed,.. and you're talking 6-7x the value.

Light rail [[esp grade level in traffic lanes) is the single worst and most expensive system you can get. And for a poor area like Detroit,.. that makes it a disaster.

Bus vs. Rail comes down to what political goal are you trying to achieve.

If you are attempting to provide the best bang-for-the-buck transit option so lower income folks can get around and provide the jobs critical to the economy, than busses/BRT is the way to go.

On the other hand if you are trying to attract higher income urbanists and the higher income jobs that come with it to your city, rail is necessary. I will be the first to admit that surface rail transit over busses is pure aesthetics, and that busses can operate just as well [[if not better). But fair or not, the perception is that busses = low income. If you want to attract higher income folks to ride, it needs to be rail.

It really comes down to what goal is trying to be achieved.

[Gistok]

Even if Biden does get elected, the GOP is likely to retain control of the Senate.

What gives you that impression? The republicans have 23 seats up for re-election, the democrats only 12. The odds are that the democrats may win a few extra ones. 2 Democratic governors are vying for republican seats, among the 23. And a few other republicans [[Susan Collins of Maine for example) are in races that are a toss up.

I would say that it's at least a 50-50 chance the Democrats may take over the Senate [[they only need to win 3 more).

[Atticus]

What gives you that impression? The republicans have 23 seats up for re-election, the democrats only 12. The odds are that the democrats may win a few extra ones. 2 Democratic governors are vying for republican seats, among the 23. And a few other republicans [[Susan Collins of Maine for example) are in races that are a toss up.

I would say that it's at least a 50-50 chance the Democrats may take over the Senate [[they only need to win 3 more).

While I agree it is possible, I still think it is unlikely that the Dems will be able to flip enough senate seats to get to 50 [[and win the tiebreaker should Biden also win).

Jones’ Alabama seat will go back to the GOP. That means the Dems would need to flip 4 other seats to get to 50. The GOP seats in Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Arizona are probably the most vulnerable, but all involve races against a moderate Republican incumbent. The Dems would need to win all 4, or win somewhere else that leans heavily republican. And in doing so, the Dems couldn’t afford to lose any other of their own existing seats sans Doug Jones. Other than Jones, the Dems should be able to keep what they have. Arguably Michigan’s Gary Peters is probably the most vulnerable Democrat after Jones in this senate election.

It is possible, but I still think unlikely. The senate map does look more favorable for the Dems in 2022 however.