Detroit's economy will grow over the next 5 years

[Metro25]

"As an economic forecaster at the University of Michigan, I often receive questions about the economic trajectory for the city of Detroit. The city’s economy has sometimes resembled a roller coaster in recent years, with the unemployment rate shooting up to more than 25% in 2009 before falling below 8% by the end of 2019. In light of that variability, it is natural for people to wonder whether the ride will shift into reverse."

My team and I have recently completed our first forecast for the Detroit economy as part of the city’s University Economic Analysis Partnership, along with our partners at Michigan State and Wayne State universities.



Detroit’s economy should continue to grow, and it should outpace the state economy in terms of employment and income growth, Ehrlich writes. [[Photo: David Coates, The Detroit News)

In our view, the outlook is positive for the Detroit economy over the next five years. Detroit’s economy should continue to grow, and it should outpace the state economy in terms of employment and income growth. In fact, we expect Detroit’s ongoing recovery to form a key component of Michigan’s economic growth through 2024.
We are projecting employment among Detroit residents to grow an average of 0.6% per year for the next five years, versus 0.4% for Michigan. Likewise, we expect incomes in Detroit to grow an average of 4.3% in that time, versus 3.5% for the state overall. People are often surprised when they hear our outlook, but in fact Detroit’s economy has tended to grow more quickly than the state’s over the past five years — we are forecasting that trend to continue.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/op...rs/4834089002/

[EGrant]

The first caveat of not factoring in a national recession seems significant to me. It's not a matter of if, but when the recession will be. Is our auto-dependent economy strong enough to grow during a nationwide recession?

[401don]

It's all relative of course. When Detroit's unemployment rate is still about 9% and most of the rest of the state is less than half of that, or basically full employment, then if there is any growth at all Detroit should outpace the rest of Michigan.