Is the City's Population about to Grow?

[313WX]

And it only took 500 years......

And I'm sure our Great Great Great Grandchildren look forward to witnessing it too, lol.

[Worldsgreatest]

I'd be shocked if Detroit has over 500,000 residents. A curisory look at Google maps shows a majority of Detroit's land area to be vacant. Secondly, those that do live in Detroit and have cars are highly likely to have address in the suburbs to avoid outrageous auto insurance.

1. the city is not majority vacant land
2. 500,000 is outside of the realm of any reasonable prediction. you made this up out of your behind
3. You can't judge population numbers based on a hunch
4. worry about your southern backwater and the abortion bill that just passed.

[Former_Detroiter]

1. the city is not majority vacant land
2. 500,000 is outside of the realm of any reasonable prediction. you made this up out of your behind
3. You can't judge population numbers based on a hunch
4. worry about your southern backwater and the abortion bill that just passed.

IMO number 4 is hitting below the belt and has nothing to do with Detroit's population...

[Worldsgreatest]

I mean people love hitting below the belt or outright fabricating stories about the city so why should I care?

So concerned with Detroit yet you live in America's poverty center.

[Gistok]

I mean people love hitting below the belt or outright fabricating stories about the city so why should I care?

That's just his OPINION... he didn't state that as fact. People on this forum are allowed their opinion... just like people on this forum are allowed to be shrill and annoying...

[bragaboutme]

Those of us that live in the city see that there is definitely an increase of population outside of downtown compared to 2010.

[CrashDummy]

Census numbers are not based on vehicle registrations.

Yes! Thank you for that. More specifically, the official 10 year census is not based on vehicle registrations, although the yearly census will use them as part of their model for population estimates. Multiple addresses are nothing new or unique to Detroit, especially for younger people, and there are plenty of tools available to account for it.

There is no centralized system for reporting your primary residence. What you self report to the census is separate from what you tell the SOS or insurance company, and separate still from what you report for taxes. The definition for primary residence is similar between them, but not always so cut and dry. It can come down to the question of where you slept last night, in some cases.

[Lowell]

As for counting those "bunking" in Downtown Detroit while claiming non-City of Detroit residency, this from John Gallagher's column in today's Free Press provides what may be the best guess as to how many do.

Tax avoidance in the form of people living downtown but claiming suburban residency to avoid city income taxes or high auto insurance rates is often cited as a problem.

How big an issue is it? One indication comes from the American Community Survey, a product of the U.S. Census Bureau. The survey estimated that in 2016, 20,451 people lived in the 48226 [[downtown) and 48201 [[Midtown) ZIP codes. But data from the Internal Revenue Service showed tax filers claimed just 9,740 exemptions that year. The IRS believes the number of exemptions approximates a total population for a given area.

And if a 2-1 ratio of residents to tax exemptions claimed was not enough of an indicator of possible tax avoidance, consider this: While the population of those two ZIP codes increased 33% between 2011 and 2016, the number of exemptions claimed on IRS returns actually dropped, to 9,740 from 9,816. That would normally indicate a smaller population, not a boom in new residents.

In recent years, the City of Detroit has tried to ferret out tax avoiders in several ways, including demanding downtown landlords turn over the names of residents to be checked against tax rolls. Generally, landlords have refused, citing the privacy of their tenants, but gradually the city has made progress in collecting back taxes.

City officials agree some downtowners have valid reasons for not filing tax returns. Many elderly residents may not have any taxable income and therefore don't need to file. The number of government-subsidized senior residential units in the greater downtown indicates that this population could number a few thousand.

What I could be curious to see are the City of Detroit tax data for downtown, not just for a head count but to see revenue direction. I am guessing that many of the new residents, who are playing it straight, are higher income and likely causing per capita revenue for the area to rise.

Another question is that if, as the article mentions, the downtown area creates 58% of the jobs in the city, it is likely that tax, resident and non-resident, is being captured via withholding. I would be curious as to the size, direction and break out of that of that. That includes professional athletes among others. So how much tax is really generated by, for instance, the arenas alone.

[Bradley]

It will grow when supply meets demand. Feet on the ground and so far nothing of the sort is truly happening in a large scale....

[Cincinnati_Kid]

It will grow when supply meets demand. Feet on the ground and so far nothing of the sort is truly happening in a large scale....

And when the crime gets controlled, if ever. All these young black women being killed, certainly doesn't help it's cause....

[bartocktoo]

And when the crime gets controlled, if ever. All these young black women being killed, certainly doesn't help it's cause....

Are you talking about today's news regarding the serial killer they are looking for on the east side? I'm just curious as to where the demographic you mention is coming from, and how it compares to males, white, Hispanic, etc., if there are those types of statistics out there.

[Cincinnati_Kid]

Are you talking about today's news regarding the serial killer they are looking for on the east side? I'm just curious as to where the demographic you mention is coming from, and how it compares to males, white, Hispanic, etc., if there are those types of statistics out there.

Yes, I'm referring to the 5 or 6 black women killed in the last 2 weeks. Mostly on the Eastside. As far as demographics and statistics are concerned, I don't have a clue. I know about as much as Chief Craig at this point, but I would suspect a black male is probably the perpetrator.

[renf]

John Gallagher's use of the IRS count of exemptions is, in some sense, good news for the city. The Census Bureau's American Community Survey counts a much larger population in those zip codes than one would expect on the basis of the IRS data. This strongly suggests that people residing in these zip codes are reporting their address correctly but when they
fill out forms with their employer they put down a suburban address to cut their city income tax rate from 2.4% to 1.2%.

If this pattern persists, it seems likely that the census count in 2020 for Detroit may be more accurate than some expect. The census data are confidential for 72 years so no one needs to fear that the Michigan or Detroit tax authorities will get census data to see who reported to the census that they lived in Detroit but claimed another residence for tax purposes.

[bartocktoo]

Yes, I'm referring to the 5 or 6 black women killed in the last 2 weeks. Mostly on the Eastside. As far as demographics and statistics are concerned, I don't have a clue. I know about as much as Chief Craig at this point, but I would suspect a black male is probably the perpetrator.

2 were in a car with 2 black males in what was an in-car drive by shooting. All four were shot.

The serial killer has not been identified [[I don't think as of today) as black or white. The two women identified are in their 50s. One is black, one is white.

The young nursing student who was murdered [[and black) was murdered by a multiple sex offender and I am beyond comprehension why the person who murdered her was out on the street to begin with.

I did see something where roughly 88% percent of the murdered in Detroit are male, roughly the same percentage [[a little less) are black males.

My baited point was that people...people...should not be murdered, period. And the more murders, the more dangerous the city, and it makes it that much harder to get folks to move in.

[ABetterDetroit]

My baited point was that people...people...should not be murdered, period. And the more murders, the more dangerous the city, and it makes it that much harder to get folks to move in.

It is the elephant in the room. Murder. It scares the shit out of people. It is awful for business. It hurts jobs, opportunity and wealth building for the majority in the entire Metro Detroit area. The homicides in Detroit are nationally notorious.

The ‘All cities are bad so live with it’ mentality we have here is a proven failure. Many cities in America are rather nice now and a majority are improving at a faster rate then metro Detroit because they eliminated that archaic thinking decades ago.

Capital prefers to invest where human life is highly regarded and the reputation for that ethic exists regionally not just in isolated pockets.

Community policing is showing promise in other places and it is well past the time for Michigan and Detroit to make a larger investment in it tied with technology and higher quality training for law enforcement officers. It takes money to solve problems. Finger pointing does not work. If it did metro Detroit would be paradise.

[softailrider]

If we took a drive through the inner city neighborhoods 20 years ago, and we took that drive today I don’t think you would notice a huge difference. I’m not referring to midtown or downtown, I talking about lower east side, upper east side, all over the city really. Some neighborhoods do look better, most don’t, a lot look worse. The neighborhood business districts are in a shambles as before or do not exist anymore. There’s many more vacant lots now, that is noticeable to me.

[Honky Tonk]

It is the elephant in the room. Murder. It scares the shit out of people. It is awful for business. It hurts jobs, opportunity and wealth building for the majority in the entire Metro Detroit area. The homicides in Detroit are nationally notorious.

The ‘All cities are bad so live with it’ mentality we have here is a proven failure. Many cities in America are rather nice now and a majority are improving at a faster rate then metro Detroit because they eliminated that archaic thinking decades ago.

Capital prefers to invest where human life is highly regarded and the reputation for that ethic exists regionally not just in isolated pockets.

Community policing is showing promise in other places and it is well past the time for Michigan and Detroit to make a larger investment in it tied with technology and higher quality training for law enforcement officers. It takes money to solve problems. Finger pointing does not work. If it did metro Detroit would be paradise.

It's not just the murders. Property crimes, minor and major, continue. You can't leave anything out, no matter how petty you think it is, unattended. Never leave anything exposed in your vehicle even if there's "nothing in it". Car windows get smashed out for $5 phone chargers and cheap gloves. License plates and tabs get stolen. Garages and homes get broken into. And people wonder why the insurance rates are so high.

[ABetterDetroit]

It's not just the murders. Property crimes, minor and major, continue. You can't leave anything out, no matter how petty you think it is, unattended. Never leave anything exposed in your vehicle even if there's "nothing in it". Car windows get smashed out for $5 phone chargers and cheap gloves. License plates and tabs get stolen. Garages and homes get broken into. And people wonder why the insurance rates are so high.

I agree. All the above issues are out of control. A major initiative has to be implemented on violent crime and all crimes and must be successful if Detroit is going to have a sustained rebound to its economy. Other cities are way ahead and still improving on this issue and there is no chance of competing against them if failure continues to happen here.

Detroit has to be for everyone to be desirable. Not just the few who enjoy it having a hard edge and then hide in their secure apartment/condo when they want to escape the crime.

The suburbs cannot make it on their own anymore. They will continue to become less as well to the suburbs of cities that are not crime ridden. It is no longer 1980.

[mwilbert]

If we took a drive through the inner city neighborhoods 20 years ago, and we took that drive today I don’t think you would notice a huge difference. I’m not referring to midtown or downtown, I talking about lower east side, upper east side, all over the city really. Some neighborhoods do look better, most don’t, a lot look worse. The neighborhood business districts are in a shambles as before or do not exist anymore. There’s many more vacant lots now, that is noticeable to me.

I think this is basically correct. The main neighborhoods that are better/stable are

1) the ones that were always pretty OK
2) a few that neighbor the ones that were always pretty OK
3) Greater downtown.

The rest of the city is continuing to empty out. I expect this to continue for a while.

But nonetheless the city is close to stabilizing its population overall--the declining areas continually have fewer people to lose, while the improving parts are growing.