Is the City's Population about to Grow?

[renf]

Today, the Census Bureau released their estimate of the population of cities as of July 1, 2018. Their estimate for
Detroit:
2018 672,662
2017 674,188

These are estimated but it appears that the population is stabalizing. The decrease from 2017 to 2018 was only 1,526 or 0.2 percent. There is no evidence here that the city's population is growing but annual losses are getting smaller and smaller.

The City of Detroit now has a very active Complete Count committee for 2020. Let's hope that the Supremes decide
that the additional of a citizenship question on next year's enumeration is unconstitutional.

[313WX]

We'll see...

[EGrant]

Will they count the people living downtown, but keeping their parents' address?

[Meddle]

Let's hope that the Supremes decide that the additional of a citizenship question on next year's enumeration is unconstitutional.

Why? I have no problem with that question. It won't [[or shouldn't) affect the overall count in any way.

[Uncledave54]

Why? I have no problem with that question. It won't [[or shouldn't) affect the overall count in any way.

It shouldn't, but you know it will.

[Lowell]

Will they count the people living downtown, but keeping their parents' address?

I wish there was a count on that. I'd wager it's over 20K. I'd guess it is not just downtown either but for the entire city due to the insurance redlining.

Another factor that may be coming close to running its course is the foreclosure bubble. Detroit and Wayne County had neglected that for long but has been sternly cracking down for the last 3-4 years resulting in thousands of evictions and displacements.

That has to have contributed to populations outflow. I wonder if there is any study on that?

[Seven&wyo]

Don't worry 313WX I'm sure you'll find a way to shit on that too

[p1acebo]

Don't worry 313WX I'm sure you'll find a way to shit on that too

And +/- O3H?

[mwilbert]

I'm guessing we are probably pretty close to the point where inflows/births balance out outflows/deaths, but I don't trust the mid-decade Census numbers so even if the 2020 number turns out to be higher than the 2018 number I won't be convinced there has been an actual increase. But I think it is entirely possible the numbers will come out that way.

[DetBill]

Will they count the people living downtown, but keeping their parents' address?

You are exactly correct, that is the elephant in the room that has been in Detroit for years. Very seldom do they like to mention this in the newspapers either, there are thousands of people that are living in Detroit that do not use Detroit as their principal residence, many do have a principal residence somewhere else whether it be in Michigan or another state and Detroit is their secondary, which is totally legal, however thousands of people living in Detroit use out of Detroit addresses even though it is the principal residence. The actual population of Detroit is easily 10 to 20,000 more than what the count is showing. It always has been.

[Danny]

NO! Detroit's population by 2020 Census is still declining. However it's not accelerating.

Detroit's black population is decreasing due to crime, black flight to the suburbs, better schools, housing and retail hubs.

Detroit's white population is slowly increasing due to gentrification from Gilbert town [[ Downtown Detroit), a stronger growing regional business base, new exotic restaurants and retails, boutique hotels, mega lofts and super condos.


Give it about 25 years and Detroit's population will be back up again.

[K-slice]

I know several people who live in the city with addresses elsewhere who are planning to switch their address to Detroit if the car insurance debacle is fixed. Today's announcement is a little glimmer of hope but I'm sure the insurance companies will find some loophole to continue redlining the city.

[SammyS]

I know several people who live in the city with addresses elsewhere who are planning to switch their address to Detroit if the car insurance debacle is fixed. Today's announcement is a little glimmer of hope but I'm sure the insurance companies will find some loophole to continue redlining the city.

I don't think the blame is solely on the insurance companies. To the contrary. It's the sleazy lawyers taking advantage of the unlimited liability payouts.

[bragaboutme]

I look at the housing crisis of 2008 as the reason the steep decline of population then. This decade if counted right I wouldn't be surprised if the numbers are evening out or rising.

[renf]

There is one other component of the city's population growth not mentoned here. That is, a modest rise in the numbers of immigrants from the i East and Bangladesh arriving in the city, especially in Bangla Village and Warrendale. If federal policies were to change and more refugees from the violence in the Middle East were admitted, there would be more
of an increase in a few Detroit neighborhoods.

[Hamtragedy]

I look at the housing crisis of 2008 as the reason the steep decline of population then. This decade if counted right I wouldn't be surprised if the numbers are evening out or rising.

Detroit was losing somewhere between 12,000-15,000 people every year since the early 90s, and that was after falling below 1 million in the 1990 census for the first time since the 20s or 30s, or about 300,000 people over a 20 year span ending in the 2010 census.

Staggering.

Just as staggering was the Detroit Board of Ed which in 1985, when I graduated, had well over 140,000 students. They have been at rock bottom since about 2008 to present with around 45-50 thousand students.

To answer the OP's question, until the school district is fixed, any increase in Detroit's population will be statistically insignificant.

[Bradley]

I'd be a fool to think Detroit's population will grow to any extent that will make a difference regionally or nationally [[context)

I hope it does

[p1acebo]

I'd be a fool to think Detroit's population will grow to any extent that will make a difference regionally or nationally [[context)

I hope it does

Maybe not, but a recorded net positive in population as opposed to a negative in population I think can speak volumes.

[Colombian Dan]

Metro Detroit hit its peak in 1970. Metro Seattle and Minnesota could both over take Metro Detroit in the 2020 census. I've relocated to Atlanta after more than 40 years in Metro Detroit and 2 years in Bogotá Colombia. If there's any doubt about the downward spiral of Detroit, look no further than the wealth evaporation from Oakland county; once the nation's 4th wealthiest county....

[Worldsgreatest]

Metro Detroit hit its peak in 1970. Metro Seattle and Minnesota could both over take Metro Detroit in the 2020 census. I've relocated to Atlanta after more than 40 years in Metro Detroit and 2 years in Bogotá Colombia. If there's any doubt about the downward spiral of Detroit, look no further than the wealth evaporation from Oakland county; once the nation's 4th wealthiest county....

There's no wealth evaporation. Oakland county is richer than ever. it's just more diverse now. Also Minnesota? what are you talking about? Stay in Bogota

[Cincinnati_Kid]

NO! Detroit's population by 2020 Census is still declining. However it's not accelerating.

Detroit's black population is decreasing due to crime, black flight to the suburbs, better schools, housing and retail hubs.

Detroit's white population is slowly increasing due to gentrification from Gilbert town [[ Downtown Detroit), a stronger growing regional business base, new exotic restaurants and retails, boutique hotels, mega lofts and super condos.


Give it about 25 years and Detroit's population will be back up again.

Detroit's population may increase slightly, but it will never reach it's zenith again, of 2 million people, in the early to mid 50"s, when it was the 4th largest city in the U.S.

[313WX]

Metro Detroit hit its peak in 1970. Metro Seattle and Minnesota could both over take Metro Detroit in the 2020 census. I've relocated to Atlanta after more than 40 years in Metro Detroit and 2 years in Bogotá Colombia. If there's any doubt about the downward spiral of Detroit, look no further than the wealth evaporation from Oakland county; once the nation's 4th wealthiest county....

Until Detroit/Michigan can attract industries beyond automotive [[which is in a secular decline) that are growing, more recession-proof and creates plenty of high-paying jobs, it will remaing stagnant or even decline further.

[Former_Detroiter]

Detroit's population may increase slightly, but it will never reach it's zenith again, of 2 million people, in the early to mid 50"s, when it was the 4th largest city in the U.S.

I rarely say never, however, having grown up in the late 40's and 50's in Detroit I would have to agree.

[mwilbert]

I rarely say never, however, having grown up in the late 40's and 50's in Detroit I would have to agree.

I have to agree that it is very unlikely that Detroit will ever be the 4th largest city in the US again. But I can imagine how it could happen. Let me be clear that this is not intended as a prediction, and barring some kind of serious medical breakthroughs there's no chance I will live long enough to see it.

1) The demographics of the city get closer to the demographics of the region [[Detroit gets richer and whiter, metro gets poorer and blacker) and the possibility of a regional government increases, as the current governmental structure of southeastern Michigan is dumb, and many of the cities larger than Detroit [[and Detroit itself, in days gone by) have grown through amalgamation. [[Don't bother telling me this is impossible; certainly it is impossible anytime soon, but we are not talking soon, we are talking "not never". Perhaps it will become possible under the revised Michigan Constitution of 2073). If Wayne County were a city it would be the 5th largest city all by itself, so this is all you need.

2) Some of the southern cities larger than Detroit become basically uninhabitable. [[ie, Houston, Phoenix, Jacksonville) because of heat or water shortages or tropical epidemics, while Michigan becomes relatively more attractive.

3) The full automation and gamification of primary and secondary education in the US allows Detroit schoolchildren to get the same high quality education as everyone else, also making 1) more likely.

4) Changing demographics, elimination of cash in the US, widespread electronic surveillance, and removal of lead from soil and pipes in Detroit reduces crime rates to national average levels.

I'm not saying any of these will happen, but stuff that is equally speculative almost certainly will. The future isn't just some kind of short-term projection of the present.

[Seven&wyo]

I love how the narrative shifted from "A city that's been losing population for 60 years may soon start to see population gain and is moving in the right direction" to " Yeah well it won't be the 4th largest city again so fuck it all"
Good job fellas...