Why Michigan’s economic ‘good times’ aren’t that good, in 11 slides

[313WX]

https://www.bridgemi.com/guest-comme...good-11-slides

- Michigan's per capita income is 31st; Michigan was a top 20 state from 1929 to 2000.

- Michigan's employment-to-population ratio is 38th

-Michigan's % of age 25 or older that hold bachelor's degree is 31st

-78% of jobs in Michigan pay less than $61,110.

[poobert]

These numbers are useful in not only understanding that Michigan malaise but that of the Rust Belt. You could even extrapolate it to understand the phenomenon of Trumpism. I mean, things have admittingly been improving in Michigan and the Rust Belt for years. Folks like Snyder have pointed to the unemployment rate as a measure of success. Yet their has been a frustration - even a simmering rage - that all is not well. That people aren't doing well. That this wonderful globalized economy didn't turn out to be all it was cracked up to be.

I find these to be particularly alarming:
-Michigan's % of age 25 or older that hold bachelor's degree is 31st

-78% of jobs in Michigan pay less than $61,110.

Those not only call for the removal of rose-colored glasses but also make you wonder what Michigan will look like in ten years. Does a future as a low-wage, poorly educated state sound good to anyone?

Oh, but Coney Dogs, QLine, Riverwalk, and Five Guys. Maybe a Cheesecake Factory soon.

[Seven&wyo]

"Oh, but Coney Dogs, QLine, Riverwalk, and Five Guys. Maybe a Cheesecake Factory soon."
Yep that's exactly what we're saying you really got me with this one.
The country as a whole is fucked some states are just a little better off then others, but only slightly. Everytime O3H or 313wx posts something about either Detroit or Michigan you can see it reverberate across the country with the statistics only moving around a little. Our minimum wage as a country is a joke, almost no one person can support a family alone anymore, more people are living paycheck to paycheck, automation of some of the largest job sectors is in the very near future and so on and so on...

[Hermod]

Even during Detroit boom times, the part of the state above a line from Bay City to Muskegon was not doing all that well. The extraction industries [[timber, iron ore, copper) had declined and there was a lot of unemployment/under employment in the north. From 1910-1970, Michigan led the nation every decade in the per cent of its railroad net that was abandoned.

[Wesley Mouch]

...snip...

- Michigan's per capita income is 31st; Michigan was a top 20 state from 1929 to 2000.

...snip...

These state rankings often rankle me. Comparison with peers is of course useful, but it doesn't tell the whole story.

The question is whether Michigan is doing well or not. How does being 31st instead of 16th tell us anything about that? Michigan could be growing, but 15 other states might have been growing just a little faster.

This is the same problem with the 'income inequality' argument. Who cares what the wealthy earn. The question is has life improved for most of us. [[And I think there's little doubt that it has. This 'stagnation' in wages seems to hide an overall improvement in conditions. And of course the 'stagnation' has ended and wages are clearly rising now.

[313WX]

These state rankings often rankle me. Comparison with peers is of course useful, but it doesn't tell the whole story.

Falling from the top 20th to 31st in per-capita income is not good, no matter what spin or justification one has for it.

BTW, some more additional data points:

In 1980 [[when manufacturing employment peaked and just as the American auto industry was beginning its long, slow decline), per-capita income was $28,313 in Michigan while it was $27,843 in Minnesota and $29,284 in Massachusetts. Fast forward to 2012 and per-capita income in Michigan is only $38,636 while it's $47,865 in Minnesota and $57,179 in Massachusetts.

The difference? Minnesota and Massachusetts are both high tax states that have consistently invested significant dollars to upgrade and maintain their infrastructure and education system. Conversely, in the same time frame, Michigan has let its infrastructure fall by the wayside and imposed siginificant cuts in education funding while also engaging in a race to the bottom of corporate/income tax cuts with other relatively low-income/high poverty states.

[masterblaster]

https://www.bridgemi.com/guest-comme...good-11-slides

- Michigan's per capita income is 31st; Michigan was a top 20 state from 1929 to 2000.

- Michigan's employment-to-population ratio is 38th

-Michigan's % of age 25 or older that hold bachelor's degree is 31st

-78% of jobs in Michigan pay less than $61,110.

To be fair, this article was the subject of a recent [[and controversial - 86 replies) thread started by O3H called "Detroit Michigan needs Competency". So we have already seen it and discussed it.

[Meddle]

I've long felt that this 'roaring' economy is somehow superficial and false. Too many things are escalating in price and there has to be a level where most people simply can't afford them or get into serious trouble trying. I see businesses closing frequently, even long term, well established ones. Then I hear that the people involved are opening new ones. How does that work? Only thing I can figure is tax loss and other writeoffs, then tax shelters and other incentives to start over.

In what world is a $50K personal vehicle a reasonable expense, let alone having two or three as some do? $1,000 shoes?

Manufacturing jobs are gone in many areas and declining in many others. They still exist, but in far less numbers.

College and 'higher' education has become an industry perpetuated by itself and people are getting sucked into it by the hype. Most people and most jobs do not require anything past High School. That does not mean those people are 'uneducated'. I've seen a lot of 'college graduates' that don't know which end of a screwdriver to hold. To me, THEY are the uneducated ones.

Why the hell do you need a college degree to go into retail? You start out as a cashier or stocker, learn the ropes on the job and work your way up.

[Honky Tonk]

I've long felt that this 'roaring' economy is somehow superficial and false. Too many things are escalating in price and there has to be a level where most people simply can't afford them or get into serious trouble trying. I see businesses closing frequently, even long term, well established ones. Then I hear that the people involved are opening new ones. How does that work? Only thing I can figure is tax loss and other writeoffs, then tax shelters and other incentives to start over.

In what world is a $50K personal vehicle a reasonable expense, let alone having two or three as some do? $1,000 shoes?

Manufacturing jobs are gone in many areas and declining in many others. They still exist, but in far less numbers.

College and 'higher' education has become an industry perpetuated by itself and people are getting sucked into it by the hype. Most people and most jobs do not require anything past High School. That does not mean those people are 'uneducated'. I've seen a lot of 'college graduates' that don't know which end of a screwdriver to hold. To me, THEY are the uneducated ones.

Why the hell do you need a college degree to go into retail? You start out as a cashier or stocker, learn the ropes on the job and work your way up.

You're absolutely correct. Education has become a big business and growing. Learn a trade, which end of a screwdriver to use, and charge the rich big bux to tighten screws.

[masterblaster]

College and 'higher' education has become an industry perpetuated by itself and people are getting sucked into it by the hype. Most people and most jobs do not require anything past High School.

Why the hell do you need a college degree to go into retail? You start out as a cashier or stocker, learn the ropes on the job and work your way up.

Sir, could you provide another example of a growing employment sector that doesn't require a degree? Retail is shrinking as well. Many malls have died [[Tel-Twelve, Livonia, Northland, Wonderland). Many big box stores are floundering. Every other month a national retailer is going into Bankruptcy. Besides construction trades and being an entrepreneur, what kind of jobs don't require a college degree? Amazon Warehouse Worker? Comcast/Xfinity installer? Uber Driver?

[Meddle]

^^ You're missing the point. It's those trades and service jobs that keep communities functioning. Trades are suffering loss of skilled workers. Nobody wants to be a plumber. Everybody wants to start out owning a plumbing conglomerate and gets their MBA and a dozen other degrees first in hopes of getting hired as a C suite critter without even knowing what a common pipe wrench is.

Communities need trades and tradespeople don't need degrees. They need training specific to the jobs they're expected to do. I'm not a fan of unions, but that's where the apprenticeship programs are run. Nobody now wants to WORK for $25 an hour [[or more) snaking drains or cutting pipe when they can sit in an office for $20 an hour or more pushing keys.

Carpentry and Masonry are suffering too. Brick and stone laying are becoming lost arts, yet everybody wants to step out of college and own a McMansion with custom brick work and everything else within six months.

[O3H]

A huge enormous portion of the public is in the DIY market.
Think about Lowes and Home Depot, those ""hardware"" stores.
Just about anything in a home, can be done at home, by learning.

Trades aren't rocket science -- hence ANYONE can do them -- not special

Michigan needs INTELLIGENT people, not the ones who barely passed H.S.

[Meddle]

In fact, there is a LOT of science to some trades. Capacities, load rates, stresses, angle, dimensions, BTUs, current, wattage, heat expansion, cold contraction and so on. It's why structural engineers need to be licensed and trades people need extensive training. You may be able to install a light fixture in your own home, but that doesn't mean you can wire an apartment building or retail store, or get involved in replacing those underground water supply or sewerage pipes that tend to go bad.

[O3H]

Key words : engineer __ passing tests ____ certified

Those that can, do. Those that can't, well they are stuck in manual labor

Swinging a hammer doesn't make one an architect

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Major findings of numerous reports, analysis, media, etc., etc., etc., etc

• Overwhelmingly, high-wage states are states with a well-educated workforce. There is a clear and strong correlation between the educational attainment of a state’s workforce and median wages in the state.
• States can build a strong foundation for economic success and shared prosperity by investing in education. Providing expanded access to high quality education will not only expand economic opportunity for residents, but also likely do more to strengthen the overall state economy than anything else a state government can do.
• Cutting taxes to capture private investment from other states is a race-to-the-bottom state economic development strategy that undermines the ability to invest in education.
• States can increase the strength of their economies and their ability to grow and attract high-wage employers by investing in education and increasing the number of well-educated workers.
• Investing in education is also good for state budgets in the long run, since workers with higher incomes contribute more through taxes over the course of their lifetimes.

[Meddle]

• States can increase the strength of their economies and their ability to grow and attract high-wage employers by investing in education and increasing the number of well-educated workers.
• Investing in education is also good for state budgets in the long run, since workers with higher incomes contribute more through taxes over the course of their lifetimes.

Also known as Trade Schools, Apprenticeship programs and skilled trades people. Not accountants and key pushers.

[bust]

You mean people who challenge your anchor biases?

...

Oh, but Coney Dogs, QLine, Riverwalk, and Five Guys. Maybe a Cheesecake Factory soon.

I wouldn't expect you to remember my previous posts, but you clearly don't. I recognize Detroit for its good AND its bad.

My gripe isn't with everything O3H and 313WX post. Sometimes they make good points. It's more in they way they seem to relish in sharing bad news and little else. Any rare good news they present is always with a qualification or disclaimer.

Meanwhile, speaking of relish, I'm pretty sure I'm already on the record here, but if not I'll voice the unpopular opinion: I avoid coney dogs unless they're the only option, and steer my friends away when they visit. Five Guys and the Cheesecake Factory likewise. In fact, there have always been better options.

[bust]

Key words : engineer __ passing tests ____ certified

Those that can, do. Those that can't, well they are stuck in manual labor...

Yet trades offer a good career path for many people.

The typical auto mechanic doesn't fare well compared to the average Michigan worker. But electricians and plumbers do.

How Much Does an Auto Mechanic Make [[2017)?


How Much Does an Electrician Make [[2017)?


How Much Does a Plumber Make [[2017)?

[gpp1004]

Key words : engineer __ passing tests ____ certified

Those that can, do. Those that can't, well they are stuck in manual labor

Swinging a hammer doesn't make one an architect

When I left school with my shiny masters of architecture degree, I couldn't sit down and produce a set of construction documents for a simple building. I could draw and digitally model a very pretty building. But I had barely a clue how to put one together. Do you know where I learned how to actually build a building? From people on site swinging hammers, soldering pipe, running wire, laying tile. I wouldn't be the professional I am today without the knowledge I learned from tradespeople. Never underestimate their intelligence.

As one of the those darn millenials, I agree that nobody my age or younger in the workforce wants to do manual labor. I would say much of that has to do with how we were raised. I don't know any of my childhood friends who's parents instilled in them that they were to graduate high school and enter the work force. We were to go to college, earn an undergrad degree, maybe a masters. Get an entry level white collar job and work our way up. Have a better lifestyle than our parents did.

As to the original post - I will give you a resounding no shit. This is Michigan, not Manhattan. But there's a damn lot of good here too. Life is a lot more fun celebrating what is awesome than dwelling on what blows.

[Wesley Mouch]

Falling from the top 20th to 31st in per-capita income is not good, no matter what spin or justification one has for it.

Come on 3zie... yes, its usually good to see your ranking increase, but relative performance says little about absolute performance. [[Although I think the stats here are telling us that Michigan has hit harder times than other states.)

BTW, some more additional data points:

In 1980 [[when manufacturing employment peaked and just as the American auto industry was beginning its long, slow decline), per-capita income was $28,313 in Michigan while it was $27,843 in Minnesota and $29,284 in Massachusetts. Fast forward to 2012 and per-capita income in Michigan is only $38,636 while it's $47,865 in Minnesota and $57,179 in Massachusetts.

The difference? Minnesota and Massachusetts are both high tax states that have consistently invested significant dollars to upgrade and maintain their infrastructure and education system. Conversely, in the same time frame, Michigan has let its infrastructure fall by the wayside and imposed siginificant cuts in education funding while also engaging in a race to the bottom of corporate/income tax cuts with other relatively low-income/high poverty states.

Two logical conclusions from your post:
1) The auto industry's 'decline' major cause of decline in per-captia
-or-
2) Your pet ideas major cause of decline

Me? I find it hard to believe that more taxes and even more cash tossed at legacy schools have anything at all to do with this.

I support my point with a single data point -- always a logical fallacy -- at least Michigan's crumbling infrastructure hasn't resulted in an interstate bridge collapse [[yet).

But seriously... did Michigan's tax changes really move us to the bottom of the corporate tax 'list of states' in a race to the bottom? Pull that stat. I'd be curious.

And pull the average per-pupil spending in Michigan vs. Minn./Mass. since 1980. I suspect all have had major spending increases -- including our beloved state. [[Also wonder how our public debt being saddled on our children compares?)

[313WX]

Come on 3zie... yes, its usually good to see your ranking increase, but relative performance says little about absolute performance. [[Although I think the stats here are telling us that Michigan has hit harder times than other states.)

It does when you're competing with 49 other states for high quality population and economic growth. Michigan isn't an island unto itself.

When talent that employers want to attract look at the stats and see the relatively poor income growth potential they'll have if they settled in Michigan, in combination with the poor ROI they get for their tax dollars [[highest insurance rates, crumbling roads, poorly aging water/sewerage systems, crappy weather, limited career growth potential, etc.), that talent will look towards other states to settle in and those employers will follow them.

1) The auto industry's 'decline' major cause of decline in per-captia

What else would be the cause? I can't think of any other strong correlation.

And pull the average per-pupil spending in Michigan vs. Minn./Mass. since 1980.

I don't have 1980 numbers, but below are 2016 numbers:

Massachusetts - $15,593
Minnesota - $12,382
Michigan - $11,668

Also, Michigan is the worst in the decline of school spending over the last 20 years [[adjusted for inflation)

https://www.michiganradio.org/post/m...-state-funding

And current ranking of states by school performance:

Massachusetts - 1st
Minnesota - 10th
Michigan - 33rd

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usa...amp/1079181001

Anything else?

[O3H]

But, but, but more people have to swing a hammer, sweat a pipe and wire lights

It's important to the the ones who couldn't pass high school regular classes.

Dumb is - as dumb does - especially when they pissed away a free education for 12 years from K to 12. If parents don't care, why should we. Empathy...eh Sweat, bruise knuckles, occupational hazards deserved