Population Trends in Detroit reflecting National Scene

[Lowell]

The Neighborhood Is Mostly Black.

The Home Buyers Are Mostly White.

By EMILY BADGER, QUOCTRUNG BUI and ROBERT GEBELOFF APRIL 27, 2019

Nationwide, the arrival of white homeowners in places they’ve long avoided is jolting the economics of the land beneath everyone.

This is title of an interesting and disturbing article from today's NYTime's showing that Detroit reflects a national trend of Euro-American repopulation of urban cores with non-Euro-American movement to suburbs.


As shown it is a remarkably consistent donut formation.


The article focuses on Raleigh, NC but reflects the situation here. [Midway through the article a google map allows search of the entire country, from which I drew the first illustration.]

White flight and white return are not opposite phenomena in American cities, generations apart. They are part of the same story.

In the places where white households are moving, reinvestment is possible mainly because of the disinvestment that came before it. Many of these neighborhoods were once segregated by law and redlined by banks. Cities neglected their infrastructure. The federal government built highways that isolated them and housing projects that were concentrated in them. Then banks came peddling predatory loans.

“A single-family detached house with a yard within a mile of downtown in any other part of the world is probably the most expensive place to live,” said Kofi Boone, a professor at North Carolina State University’s College of Design.

Here, because of that history, it’s a bargain. And while that briefly remains true in South Park, the disinvestment and reinvestment are visible side by side on any given street.

All this made me reflection donut between the outer blue and inner orange that appear to be areas of stagnation of no little interest to migrants.

[renf]

There is an important trend here reflecting a long run change in racial attitudes. For the most part, the Detroit suburbs have been racially integrated to some degree without great controversy. At present, 44% of the three county African-American population lives in the ring, not the city.
The Census Bureau's most recent estimate of population by race for
geographic areas are for 2017. From Census 2010 to 2017, the small white population of the city grew by 29% while the larger African-American population fell by 16%.
In the three county suburban ring, the white population fell by 9 percent while the African-American population grew by 16 percent. It
is possible- although unlikely - that the suburban African American population will exceed the city's in Census 2020.
Racial residential segregation has not disappeared but it has
decreased quite a bit in metro Detroit primarily because of demographic changes in the ring.

[Gistok]

There are several things going on here....

1) those older folks who left Detroit because of the crime problem, changing neighborhoods, etc... are not coming back... ever. Many times they got pennies on the dollar for the house they left behind... and will not consider coming back as an option. Many times these are the same folks who later moved from an inner ring suburb out to the fringes with the same worries about crime and housing values... and in many cases racism.

2) a big chunck of the middle class African-American community also has left the city. They find that living among whites in a safe inner ring suburban neighborhood is preferable to living among just African-Americans in a neighborhood that has mixed classes, more crimes and break-ins. They also find that whites are much more tolerant of them living in a middle class suburban neighborhood than 20-30 years ago. And their children will get a better education in a mixed suburban school.

3) Millennial whites are more willing to move back to the city... but mostly in a select number of neighborhoods, and not the entire city.

While things are improving in Detroit... there is still more than half the city where middle income whites and African-Americans will not live. And if they do move in... Detroit Public Schools [[except perhaps Cass Tech) is not an option.

[O3H]

Living in a neighborhood where there are zero
warring tribes, grenades, mortars, mines, rockets and machine gun fire,
means more to some, than the skin colors or language spoken.
Refugees are happy to call peace and quiet , their new home.

[SammyS]

First and foremost, the article is quite racist in how it victimizes minorities as if to say they have no free will or the wherewithal to empower themselves and their own neighborhoods. As if there's a white conspiracy to perpetually impoverish and now steal "their" city out from under them. Not the case.

Secondly, forced diversity through social engineering has never and will never work since it requires a few key ingredients besides persuasion, namely, private investment or the misuse of public money. It may appear egalitarian or woke but those with the money will eventually decide where they live....and they'll do it with an agreeable smile.

Lastly, this phenomenon is mostly contained within the US. Anyone who has travelled abroad to other western countries should have realized that the affluent areas are ALWAYS close to downtown, not in the suburbs. Property values then radiate out with proportional decline. We are simply catching up with the rest of the developed world, especially Detroit.

PS. I've been mentioning this "reversal" between the city and the suburbs for a while here on DYes. It's been going on for a few years but for the most part unnoticed or disregarded as an anomaly or anecdotal. Guy's, this is real and an indicator of bigger things to come! Again, and I'll never get tired of saying this, get as close as possible to downtown and get it done ASAP, especially the young folks, or you too will be forever a renter or worst still, a suburbanite

[dtowncitylover]

Again, and I'll never get tired of saying this, get as close as possible to downtown and get it done ASAP, especially the young folks, or you too will be forever a renter or worst still, a suburbanite

I don't disagree with this sentiment however it is a bit drastic. I'm actually going to be moving in the summer out of state with every intention of coming back in three years after grad school.

I've never cared about living immediately downtown or midtown and always been drawn to the neighborhoods and having a house with a yard. I look forward to 1) seeing a different Detroit from where I left it and 2) moving into a neighborhood and rebuilding this city. Both of which will take a new generation to do. I'm confident I will find something. North End, Bagley, Fitzgerald, University District or maybe even Highland Park. This city is still HUGE and if there's going to be redevelopment and stabilization, then there's plenty of room and options available.

[313WX]

There are several things going on here....

1) those older folks who left Detroit because of the crime problem, changing neighborhoods, etc... are not coming back... ever. Many times they got pennies on the dollar for the house they left behind... and will not consider coming back as an option. Many times these are the same folks who later moved from an inner ring suburb out to the fringes with the same worries about crime and housing values... and in many cases racism.

2) a big chunck of the middle class African-American community also has left the city. They find that living among whites in a safe inner ring suburban neighborhood is preferable to living among just African-Americans in a neighborhood that has mixed classes, more crimes and break-ins. They also find that whites are much more tolerant of them living in a middle class suburban neighborhood than 20-30 years ago. And their children will get a better education in a mixed suburban school.

3) Millennial whites are more willing to move back to the city... but mostly in a select number of neighborhoods, and not the entire city.

While things are improving in Detroit... there is still more than half the city where middle income whites and African-Americans will not live. And if they do move in... Detroit Public Schools [[except perhaps Cass Tech) is not an option.

To add, there's also a large subset of millennials who grew up in the city proper but have since moved out of Michigan due to the lack of good paying jobs following the auto industry collapse. Chances are, they will settle down with spouses/kids in their new cities and never come back.

And regardless of how much Detroit may improve, the "Fear City" era of Detroit they grew up in during the 2000s and 2010s will forever be ingrained in their psyche and they will never be able to look at the city differently.

BTW, I will say that coming back this time around for a visit, the city seems emptier than even I remember. Granted, I haven't been to Midtown/Downtown, but all throughout the east side there's nothing but desolation. Part of the reason could be the sheer amount of vacant properties that have recently been demolished.

[SammyS]

I don't disagree with this sentiment however it is a bit drastic. I'm actually going to be moving in the summer out of state with every intention of coming back in three years after grad school.

I've never cared about living immediately downtown or midtown and always been drawn to the neighborhoods and having a house with a yard. I look forward to 1) seeing a different Detroit from where I left it and 2) moving into a neighborhood and rebuilding this city. Both of which will take a new generation to do. I'm confident I will find something. North End, Bagley, Fitzgerald, University District or maybe even Highland Park. This city is still HUGE and if there's going to be redevelopment and stabilization, then there's plenty of room and options available.

I believe there will soon come a time when you describe where you live to outsiders, it will be by the distance from Downtown or whether you can see the skyline from your place. Pride is and will continue to return.

[Gistok]

I believe there will soon come a time when you describe where you live to outsiders, it will be by the distance from Downtown or whether you can see the skyline from your place. Pride is and will continue to return.

I live in SCS at I-94/I-696... and it takes me 20 minutes to get downtown... which is closer than much of NW Detroit. Even though that is suburban... we have the same housing density as everything in Detroit east of Conner Ave. Actually we are denser, since there are no gaps in the old housing stock from abandonment.

Lumping all the suburbs together as some evil location is kinda silly... I lived in Detroit until 1990, when it dawned on me that by not paying the city income taxes, I was able to afford a 3 week vacation in Europe every year. And having 5 minute police response time is an added plus. I may not live near Detroit city center distance wise... but 20 minutes is acceptable.

Everyone in the city needs to have tax relief via NEZ property taxes, and lower city income taxes before more than just Millennials come back to Detroit... and better police response time!

[Luke09]

I don't disagree with this sentiment however it is a bit drastic. I'm actually going to be moving in the summer out of state with every intention of coming back in three years after grad school.

I've never cared about living immediately downtown or midtown and always been drawn to the neighborhoods and having a house with a yard. I look forward to 1) seeing a different Detroit from where I left it and 2) moving into a neighborhood and rebuilding this city. Both of which will take a new generation to do. I'm confident I will find something. North End, Bagley, Fitzgerald, University District or maybe even Highland Park. This city is still HUGE and if there's going to be redevelopment and stabilization, then there's plenty of room and options available.

I agree with you. DT areas can be great, and I have done that in two large cities, but they can be transient for people. A great city has a vibrant DT with lots of attractions and livable neighborhoods that attract families. The next step for Detroit is to retain the people that get tired of DT after being there for 5, 10 or 20 years and move into one of Detroit's neighborhoods....and It's starting to happen as people realize why pay 400k for a condo in midtown with $300/mo in HOAs when you can buy a really nice house in several neighborhoods. And if/when Detroit continues on this trajectory, guess which one will appreciate more.

[iheartthed]

I live in SCS at I-94/I-696... and it takes me 20 minutes to get downtown... which is closer than much of NW Detroit. Even though that is suburban... we have the same housing density as everything in Detroit east of Conner Ave. Actually we are denser, since there are no gaps in the old housing stock from abandonment.

Lumping all the suburbs together as some evil location is kinda silly... I lived in Detroit until 1990, when it dawned on me that by not paying the city income taxes, I was able to afford a 3 week vacation in Europe every year. And having 5 minute police response time is an added plus. I may not live near Detroit city center distance wise... but 20 minutes is acceptable.

Everyone in the city needs to have tax relief via NEZ property taxes, and lower city income taxes before more than just Millennials come back to Detroit... and better police response time!

Considering that millennials are approaching 40, and are also the biggest demographic in the country... If the city is attracting millennials then it is doing something right.

[Gistok]

Considering that millennials are approaching 40, and are also the biggest demographic in the country... If the city is attracting millennials then it is doing something right.

Well I certainly hope you guys take over the White House... having to choose between 2 old farts [[or the orange haired old fart) is not much of a choice!!

[ABetterDetroit]

I live in SCS at I-94/I-696... and it takes me 20 minutes to get downtown... which is closer than much of NW Detroit. Even though that is suburban... we have the same housing density as everything in Detroit east of Conner Ave. Actually we are denser, since there are no gaps in the old housing stock from abandonment.

Lumping all the suburbs together as some evil location is kinda silly... I lived in Detroit until 1990, when it dawned on me that by not paying the city income taxes, I was able to afford a 3 week vacation in Europe every year. And having 5 minute police response time is an added plus. I may not live near Detroit city center distance wise... but 20 minutes is acceptable.

Everyone in the city needs to have tax relief via NEZ property taxes, and lower city income taxes before more than just Millennials come back to Detroit... and better police response time!

Taxes force a choice between bad and worse. The city has to have income or there is no police at all.

The 2.4% income tax for city residents is not equal to the cost for a “3 week vacation in Europe every year” for anything close to the average Joe taxpayer. Misleading statements like that about actual tax burden on individuals and businesses do not solve problems in struggling communities like Detroit as much as they serve the interest exclusively of the highest income earners.

[Gistok]

^ I probably should not have taken out 'visiting relatives there' [[no hotel charges)... and mentioned it was in the 1990s... when a roundtrip cost $600, and city income tax was 3%. But for me it was a $2.5K savings annually.

[swingline]

The NYT article mostly sidesteps the question of is there anything wrong happening in these racially changing neighborhoods. A complex question indeed. To the extent anyone might complain about the neighborhood changes from an economic perspective, contrast the recent essay in Curbed Detroit. https://detroit.curbed.com/2019/4/26...ng-home-values Lots of valid points made in that article. But in the currently changing neighborhoods described in the NYT article it would now appear that a long absent potential for inter-generational transfer of wealth in African-American families is actually possible. That's a good thing, no?

Obviously another potential problem with the changes coming to these neighborhoods occurs when the existing history and culture is ignored and/or disrespected by new residents. Avoiding this is 100% within control of the new residents and shame on them if they can't or don't see this. But neighborhoods change racially and demographically all the time so there doesn't seem to be anything inherently wrong with the trend discussed in the NYT article.

One interesting question left unexplored is whether middle and upper-middle African American families are seeking out these new "bargain" neighborhoods close to city centers. If not, why?

[SammyS]

One interesting question left unexplored is whether middle and upper-middle African American families are seeking out these new "bargain" neighborhoods close to city centers. If not, why?

I have a feeling that most with the means won’t and will continue their migration into the suburbs. Those who are priced out on rent will follow suit out of necessity when the suburbs start depreciating. That’s my long term outlook.

[poobert]

The NYT article mostly sidesteps the question of is there anything wrong happening in these racially changing neighborhoods. A complex question indeed. To the extent anyone might complain about the neighborhood changes from an economic perspective, contrast the recent essay in Curbed Detroit. https://detroit.curbed.com/2019/4/26...ng-home-values Lots of valid points made in that article. But in the currently changing neighborhoods described in the NYT article it would now appear that a long absent potential for inter-generational transfer of wealth in African-American families is actually possible. That's a good thing, no?

Obviously another potential problem with the changes coming to these neighborhoods occurs when the existing history and culture is ignored and/or disrespected by new residents. Avoiding this is 100% within control of the new residents and shame on them if they can't or don't see this. But neighborhoods change racially and demographically all the time so there doesn't seem to be anything inherently wrong with the trend discussed in the NYT article.

One interesting question left unexplored is whether middle and upper-middle African American families are seeking out these new "bargain" neighborhoods close to city centers. If not, why?

This. I love the NYT and am left-of-center and also white, so, "PRIVILEGE ALERT" or whatever is en vogue now, but I always questioned this. Some of it is way, way, way too bleeding heart.

Detroit has a high-proportion of owner-occupants, I would imagine moreso than someplace like Chicago or certainly NYC. My neighborhood in Detroit was overwhelmingly owner-occupant, and all of my neighbors, black or white, would literally cheer when new families moved in the neighborhood.

With owner-occupants, folks can either sell for a profit or stay put. The Headlee amendment prevents their taxes from increasing as long as they stay there. So the problem is...less...vacancy?

Now, I feel for the renters. So how about rent control?

And I don't want other places in the country to become like that godforsaken hellhole San Francisco [[I mean, cool place if you like living in a city of childless, soulless tech billionares). I think people should at least be able to live somewhere near where they [[often have to) work.

Then there is a measure of, yeah, you can't just live anywhere just because you're a very special boy. I'd like to live on Central Park but it ain't gonna happen. Times change and people move. That is history.

[Wesley Mouch]

...snip...

Obviously another potential problem with the changes coming to these neighborhoods occurs when the existing history and culture is ignored and/or disrespected by new residents. Avoiding this is 100% within control of the new residents and shame on them if they can't or don't see this. But neighborhoods change racially and demographically all the time so there doesn't seem to be anything inherently wrong with the trend discussed in the NYT article.

The 'trend' seems like success. Back in the day, the goal was 'integration'.

Isn't this what we wanted? A community with diversity? But I guess being the poster-child for attribute-based privilege, I can't see the concern that black residents have towards a re-taking of their neighborhood by people who are more privileged than they are. This privilege counting is tiring.

But let's accept it here. What's the fear? That schools will starting being named after Europeans again. Out with MLK school. In with Jeremy Corbin school? History being erased doesn't stop. Once we accept that a neighborhood can erase white history, you have to accept that black history will get erased another day. [[Which is why we should not erase history.). If the incoming residents are purchasers, and the existing residents are renters, this is a concern. But we know that the gov't solutions to this kind of problem are worse than the disease. I would hope that current community groups are working hard to get black buyers into the market. That's the only solution. Use the system against itself, if you will.

One interesting question left unexplored is whether middle and upper-middle African American families are seeking out these new "bargain" neighborhoods close to city centers. If not, why?

Same as my last point above. Are they? If not, why not. If we are not to have a racial/owner-renter divide, we need to do something now while the 'hood is still a 'bargain'.

[fryar]

I would hope that current community groups are working hard to get black buyers into the market. That's the only solution. Use the system against itself, if you will.

Same as my last point above. Are they? If not, why not. If we are not to have a racial/owner-renter divide, we need to do something now while the 'hood is still a 'bargain'.

Are they? Is this being worked on? That seems like it could be a substantial lift.

EDIT: As a side note, I can't believe I have over 1,000 posts. I have not posted on here since maybe 2012 [[although I have occasionally lurked)? Remember when Lowell changed the formatting or something, way back when, and everybody's post numbers reset to 0? Meh, some o' ya young whippersnappers, ya wouldn't know a vbulletin site if it bit ya in the behind.

[lester wild]

There are several things going on here....

1) those older folks who left Detroit because of the crime problem, changing neighborhoods, etc... are not coming back... ever. Many times they got pennies on the dollar for the house they left behind... and will not consider coming back as an option. Many times these are the same folks who later moved from an inner ring suburb out to the fringes with the same worries about crime and housing values... and in many cases racism.

2) a big chunck of the middle class African-American community also has left the city. They find that living among whites in a safe inner ring suburban neighborhood is preferable to living among just African-Americans in a neighborhood that has mixed classes, more crimes and break-ins. They also find that whites are much more tolerant of them living in a middle class suburban neighborhood than 20-30 years ago. And their children will get a better education in a mixed suburban school.

3) Millennial whites are more willing to move back to the city... but mostly in a select number of neighborhoods, and not the entire city.

While things are improving in Detroit... there is still more than half the city where middle income whites and African-Americans will not live. And if they do move in... Detroit Public Schools [[except perhaps Cass Tech) is not an option.

Correct! A few people venture back into the city to live, but Detroit's countless thriving neighborhoods are extinct. Nobody wants to barricade their home, or get used to hearing gunshots while they sleep - and they shouldn't have to White and black both agree on this.