Mass Transit in the next 15-20 years

[softailrider]

I don't think people get what Ford and GM are up to right now. It sounds nice to invest in a huge classic bus/rail public transit system and 10 years ago I would have totally agreed. But why invest that kind of public money when ride share technology is being developed, driverless is being developed, zero emissions vehicles are being developed, etc. The Detroit metro area may become the proving ground for a completely new system of urban transportation.

Think about it. Roads get clogged in all major cities, yet are they overcapacity? Yes and no. How many empty seats are being driven over our road infrastructure every day? There is tremendous capacity available if we can better utilize it.

By the year 2020, my hope is that GM and Ford will have deployed an integrated system of driverless ride-share zero-emission shuttles throughout the Metro area. There will be private run, for profit versions owned and operated by GM and Ford, as well as a publicly subsidized version to provide accessible transit services for all Southeast Michigan.

The "for profit" model will have two modes. One will be "on-call" which will be a per ride or monthly bill per mile. This will target what Uber has now. There will also be a subscription "work shuttle" mode where a regular daily "smart route" is built, 8-15 passengers transported from a localized neighborhood to their work locations.

There will also be neighborhood transportation hubs which will serve a couple of functions.

1) Serve as the hubs for the subsidized public transit model with low cost, frequent pre-determined shuttle routes, as well as slightly more expensive smart routes that are built as commuters submit their destinations into the integrated system. GM, Ford, and FCA will all be asked to participate.

2) Short-term and long term vehicle rental. People will still go on trips, or need to get building materials, appliances, big stuff. This is where you'll rent your F-150 or Chevy Traverse or whatever by the hour, day, week, whatever.

Unfortunately, Southeast Michigan is built and we can't start over, tear it down, redensify [[is that a word?), and build it around a mass transit system. There are only 6 American cities that are well serviced with rail transit: New York, Chicago, Washington, Boston, San Francisco, and Philadelphia. Far more cities are closer to Detroit than New York for public transit utilization. If the GM and Ford successfully develop and deploy these fully integrated transportation systems, they could work far better for far more people than all the trains and bus routes ever could, and not just in the United States.

By 2020 you are hoping for driverless ride share shuttles throughout the metro area? Are you for real? Keep hoping [[or dreaming ) that isn't happening. If that happens in my life time I would be shocked.

[schulzte]

By 2020 you are hoping for driverless ride share shuttles throughout the metro area? Are you for real? Keep hoping [[or dreaming ) that isn't happening. If that happens in my life time I would be shocked.

Yeah, that was a typo. Meant 2030.

[royce]

I don't see driver-less cars, shuttles, or buses running down city streets anytime before 2040, if ever. Remember flying cars? I would like to see one of two possible scenarios happen regarding mass transit. First, a subway system for Woodward Avenue to Pontiac is the ideal mass transit project Metro Detroit should consider. Get that running and you'll get a shift in people setting up residences along Woodward. The second choice would be to build a commuter rail from Oakland Mall, along I-75 to the GM RenCen. The room is there and if I-375 is to become a boulevard, then the rail line rides in the median or under it and Jefferson to GM RenCen. Gratiot would be the next subway line.

[royce]

Actually the commuter rail could extend to Great Lakes Crossing. Ample parking there. With Oakland Mall shrinking, there would definitely be ample parking for commuters.