Ontario turns right?

[Canadian Visitor]

So as the election unfolds tonight, it appears Doug Ford's Progressive Conservatives [[PCs) will have won a majority government.

At at 10:42 pm CBC is saying they PCs are elected in 65 ridings [[districts) out of 124.

This would equal a majority government.

However, they are doing so with just a hair above 40% of the vote.

To be fair, this is a common number for majority governments in Ontario of any political stripe.

But noteworthy here in that both the Liberals and NDP ran fairly leftist agenda campaigns, and together got 53% of the vote.

I was before and am still a staunch advocate of electoral reform, no matter who leads or wins as I don't think ANY party getting 40% of the vote should get 100% of the power.

But I digress.

We have, as a province, regrettably, elected a completely incompetent blowhard.

Sigh.

I do hope he makes a far better Premier than I expect. To be sure that's not a high bar to exceed.

****

Observationally...........

First ever Green MPP elected, their leader Mike Schreiner.

The PCs, their leader notwithstanding may well prove to be more diverse than their predecessors. I'll have to to get details on this, but a cursory examination show multiple minority candidates for them victorious, primarily of east and south Asian backgrounds. Also an extremely large number of women candidates. If he so chooses, he will have enough talent to field a gender-equal cabinet.

[Canadian Visitor]

On the subject of policy.

I honestly believe the first rule will be to expect the unexpected.

With no costed platform, and what everyone expects to be a fiscally challenging situation, people may or may not like what they get, but it is near certain they will not get what that for which they voted.

In what manner remains to be seen.

Proposed policies included a strange of mix of ideas from across the political spectrum better described as populist than small-c conservative, when taken together.

Beer in corner stores [[Liberals first promised this in 1985......)

Reduced Gas Tax

Kill the Cap and Trade Scheme.

Reduce middle and low-income taxes.

Reduce Corporate tax to only 10.5% [[from 11.5%)

But also end 'hallway medicine' [[meaning open more hospital beds, and long-term care beds)

Add low-income dental care for seniors.

Its an eclectic mix.

I honestly have no idea what we're in for........

[oladub]

CBC article with maps-

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/results/

[Canadian Visitor]

Track the results here:

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/onvotes/results/

[Canadian Visitor]

Few bits of coverage from here and there:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/07/w...-election.html

https://www.thestar.com/news/queensp...-majority.html

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/edit...n-ontario.html

[davewindsor]

PC Doug Ford wins by a landslide. Almost twice his opposition, the NDP, and over 10x the ruling Liberals.

76 for PC, 40 for NDP, 7 for Liberals, and 1 for Green

https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/ontario-election-2018

Disappointingly, but not surprisingly, local Windsor residents re-elect the same 3 useless, airhead NDPers. Nice going city. We're not represented at Queen's Park again.

Also, local councilor and Liberal candidate Bortolin can stick it for being the only candidate to flood my voice mail box with robocalls. I hope you lose the municipal election in a humiliating defeat too.

[Wesley Mouch]

...ship...
Proposed policies included a strange of mix of ideas from across the political spectrum better described as populist than small-c conservative, when taken together.

Pretty much all your parties seem to have been campaigning on 'gifts' to voters. Politics should not be about who gets the most stuff -- even though some or all of the 'stuff' may be great ideas.

Beer in corner stores [[Liberals first promised this in 1985......)

Do most Americans know that for the most part, Canada still has a early 20th-century model for alcohol sales. What must Canadians think when they see a drive-thru liquor store, when they buy their booze mostly from inconvenience gov't stores staffed by well-paid life employees with retirement.

Of course they pay for this. Beer/Liquor are major revenue sources. A bottle of Canadian Club is about twice as expensive in Ontario as Michigan. Taxes. Beer taxes alone exceed the price of most beer in the States.

Reduced Gas Tax

Again, does everyone know that this oil exporting nation pays far more for gas than the States. Gas in BC is around $4/gal [[roughly). Again, taxes.

Kill the Cap and Trade Scheme.

I'm less aware here, but some Canadian provinces have sizeable carbon taxes, adding 10-20% [[?) to the cost of home heating gas, for example. Great for low-income folks. And money flows to gov't to spend on the 'stuff'.

Reduce middle and low-income taxes.

As CV has said, CDN effective tax rates for average folk are not far off from the US -- maybe a few points higher [[unless you count gas, liquor, carbon, etc.). But for high earners the marginal tax rates have broken through the 50% barrier again -- and the NDP would have pushed those up even farther. Great for long-term economic health and jobs I hear.

Reduce Corporate tax to only 10.5% [[from 11.5%)

With Trump's rate cuts, Canada's got a problem here as their corporate taxes are now quite a bit higher.

But also end 'hallway medicine' [[meaning open more hospital beds, and long-term care beds)

Add low-income dental care for seniors.

While I don't agree with their single-payer [[with prohibition against private medicine) system, at least they have a system. While we have mayhem and greed, codified by insurance and law. +10 points Canada

[Canadian Visitor]

Pretty much all your parties seem to have been campaigning on 'gifts' to voters. Politics should not be about who gets the most stuff -- even though some or all of the 'stuff' may be great ideas.


Do most Americans know that for the most part, Canada still has a early 20th-century model for alcohol sales. What must Canadians think when they see a drive-thru liquor store, when they buy their booze mostly from inconvenience gov't stores staffed by well-paid life employees with retirement.

While I agree with widening distribution and increasing convenience, I find the above description a bit rich.

The majority of LCBO [[gov't owned liquor store) staff are part-time, and make minimum wage or slightly above. I asked staff in my nearby store, they said there were 2 FT staff excluding the manager, and there were 22 PT staff.

They also said the 2FT staff was a quota, keeping access to the high pay limited.

According to staff it takes an average of 11 years experience part-time to get a crack a FT job.

Yes the PTs do get experience-based wage hikes and some benefits after enough experience, but its hardly earth shattering.

Also the notion that this is all that inconvenient is a bit much, There 650 LCBOs give or take a few, another 220 privately owned wine stores, another 500 plus Beer Stores, you can also buy Ontario Wine/Beer/Cider at any Farmer's market and and at about 150 grocery stores.

So let's not make out likes its prohibition here.

My local LCBO is about 1km from my front door [[2/3 of a mile), its open 9am-10pm, Mon-Sat, and 11am-6pm on Sunday.

There's a supermarket that's closer that sells both beer and wine, and 2 others within the same radius that do so as well.

The LCBOs, by and large are attractive stores to shop in, with good selection. They also contribute 1.6B in net profit to the government above and beyond alcohol taxes.

All that said, I favour getting rid of the Beer Store [[private monopoly) and allowing wider retail distribution; I do favour wider distribution of wines as well. I'm a little more dubious on hard liquor products, but have an open mind.

Again, does everyone know that this oil exporting nation pays far more for gas than the States. Gas in BC is around $4/gal [[roughly). Again, taxes.

You know, we pay much lower property taxes too..

In terms of percentage of GDP paid in taxes we are above US levels but not that drastically. There is a choice of which taxes to pay and how much.

Lets add here that Canadian gas prices are low by OECD standards, you'd pay a lot more in Europe.

With Trump's rate cuts, Canada's got a problem here as their corporate taxes are now quite a bit higher.

Not accurate. Canada has accelerated capital cost depreciation and a whole lot of other different tax treatments than the US.

While our 'sticker' rates are now comparable, Canada's effective corporate tax rate remains well below the US one.

Our effective rate is well under 10% all-in. [[corporate income, federal plus provincial)

Not to mention the all-in small business corporate tax rate is only 11.5% combined [[2.5% prov. 9% Fed)

[Wesley Mouch]

While I agree with widening distribution and increasing convenience, I find the above description a bit rich.

Thanks.

The majority of LCBO [[gov't owned liquor store) staff are part-time, and make minimum wage or slightly above. I asked staff in my nearby store, they said there were 2 FT staff excluding the manager, and there were 22 PT staff.
...

So the 'good jobs' aspect of alcohol retailing is a scam. But still 2 x 1000+ jobs does explain the NDP's need to scream 'no sales in corner stores' from rooftops.

And of course those PT staff still pay dues.

But thanks for the info.

...
Also the notion that this is all that inconvenient is a bit much, There 650 LCBOs give or take a few, another 220 privately owned wine stores, another 500 plus Beer Stores, you can also buy Ontario Wine/Beer/Cider at any Farmer's market and and at about 150 grocery stores.

Maybe a bit much. But for a province the size of Ontario 1,500+ outlets stores is not great coverage.[[I trust Ontario has some rural agencies, like other provinces? But I don't know that.

Michigan, meanwhile, has a 280 page list of retailers. At 40 a page, that's more like 10,000 outlets in a smaller economy [[true?).

So Michigan has 10 times as many retail outlets.

...The LCBOs, by and large are attractive stores to shop in, with good selection. They also contribute 1.6B in net profit to the government above and beyond alcohol taxes.

True. They should be at double US prices. The experience of my Canadian friends [[also in other provinces) is that selection of products is not so good if you're not in Toronto [[or Vancouver). Stores in smaller towns sell big hits, and won't carry wine that can't be retailed in massive quantities. I haven't shopped LCBO in a couple years, and then not deeply, so this is just a story.

All that said, I favour getting rid of the Beer Store [[private monopoly) and allowing wider retail distribution; I do favour wider distribution of wines as well. I'm a little more dubious on hard liquor products, but have an open mind.

I didn't even mention your absurd province-to-province restrictions. When was the last time the FBI setup a sting to catch Michiganders bringing Alcohol over from Wisconsin. The RCMP did. And fine a man for bringing a truck full of personal-use liquor across the NB provincial border. I believe your stellar Supreme Court upheld the conviction. Maybe good reading of the law, but overall a travesty of justice for individuals.

But I'm not trying to go full Trump here. Just have a discussion on some things Americans don't know about Canadians.

I say this because I have a friend from down south, who moved to Detroit -- and has NEVER been to Windsor in 10 years of living downtown. Trump's insults of late are front-page news in Canada. The NYTimes had a text link well below the fold. We are an ignorant country sometimes. Canada is a great country, That they have organized some gov't functions differently isn't necessary bad. Health Care for one is so much better overall.

...all about taxes...

Thanks for the info. Not consistent with my understanding. But I'll read more. I hear lots of media about high corporate taxation rates -- but maybe that's just political posturing.

Overall, again, I want to express how much I like Canada, and respect the country and people. Thanks for the debate.

[Richard]

Soooo,does this meen Ontario is open for business?

[Canadian Visitor]

Thanks.

Maybe a bit much. But for a province the size of Ontario 1,500+ outlets stores is not great coverage.[[I trust Ontario has some rural agencies, like other provinces? But I don't know that......

Ontario does have a agency stores.

Michigan, meanwhile, has a 280 page list of retailers. At 40 page, that's more like 10,000 outlets in a smaller economy [[true?).

I'm uncertain of the number of retail points in Michigan, [[were you googling?) I think that number sounds high, but that's of no real concern.

I would certainly expect the number in Michigan is much higher, as noted I support broadening distribution in Ontario.

I don't expect we'd ever get a number of stores similar to Michigan, Ontario has fewer stores of all types [[# of outlets, not variety) the US really has too much in the way of retail square footage.

True. They should be at double US prices. The experience of my Canadian friends [[also in other provinces) is that selection of products is not so good if you're not in Toronto [[or Vancouver). Stores in smaller towns sell big hits, and won't carry wine that can't be retailed in massive quantities. I haven't shopped LCBO in a couple years, and then not deeply, so this is just a story.

Prices on wine are not double for the vast majority of product.

In fact, a surprising number are cheaper at the higher end.

Do keep in mind he LCBO is the largest wine buyer on the planet.

I just compared a bottle online at a Michigan Store.

Domaine Sylvain Langoureau

$35US at the wine store in MI, $42Cdn at the LCBO

That's cheaper at the LCBO adjusted for currency. LCBO price is all tax inclusive as well.Where one could fairly critique pricing in Ontario is at the lower end, as LCBO sets a floor price below which it will not sell, no matter how cheap the product is to them to buy.

In the case of 750ml wine that's $7.95cdn or $6.15usd

The LCBO also doesn't do volume discounts and it doesn't sell wholesale [[restaurants buying a wine for resale pay the retail price, unless they exclusive import the product through the LCBO).

Beer prices, however, are much higher.

A typical 473ml can [[tall boy) runs about $2.60 w/the cheap swill going for about $2 per can and premium imports 3'ish.

So a range of $1.60USD to about $2.40USD per can.

That is rather excessive.

I also support opening a wholesale market to restaurants.

***

As to selection, the LCBO near me is 12,000sq ft, the largest in Toronto, the flagship store is 31,000 sq ft.

So selection can be quite deep.

Certainly this is not the case in terms of whats on the shelf in smaller stores.

However, anyone one can request a transfer of a bottle they want to their local store at no cost.

The LCBO's ordering database has 30,000 products in it.

I didn't even mention your absurd province-to-province restrictions. When was the last time the FBI setup a sting to catch Michiganders bringing Alcohol over from Wisconsin. The RCMP did. And fine a man for bringing a truck full of personal-use liquor across the NB provincial border. I believe your stellar Supreme Court upheld the conviction. Maybe good reading of the law, but overall a travesty of justice for individuals.

First it needs to be said that case the 'Comeau' case is incredibly rare, happened in nowheresville NB, never heard of it happening before or since, anywhere else.

That said, I fully agree the inter provincial restrictions are silly at best.

You should know the SCOC thinks so too, the reason it upheld the conviction was a concern that reading the constitution the other way [[absolute free trade between provinces) could cause enormous disruption to other programs/agencies ec.

Supply management was a particular concern.

So was the revenue side for governments, particularly smaller ones, such as New Brunswick where taxes are already higher than in Ontario and the economy less robust.

I don't agree w/their decision or the restriction, but I do understand their reasoning that they did not want to open one very large can of worms over a ticket for for a few cases of beer.

I say this because I have a friend from down south, who moved to Detroit -- and has NEVER been to Windsor in 10 years of living downtown. Trump's insults of late are front-page news in Canada. The NYTimes had a text link well below the fold. We are an ignorant country sometimes. Canada is a great country, That they have organized some gov't functions differently isn't necessary bad. Health Care for one is so much better overall.

Overall, again, I want to express how much I like Canada, and respect the country and people. Thanks for the debate.

Your welcome and your sentiment is much appreciated.

[Wesley Mouch]

...snip...
That said, I fully agree the inter provincial restrictions are silly at best.

You should know the SCOC thinks so too, the reason it upheld the conviction was a concern that reading the constitution the other way [[absolute free trade between provinces) could cause enormous disruption to other programs/agencies ec.

Supply management was a particular concern.
...snip..

You gloss over this idea of Supply Management. If you really want to get sick to your stomach over what it really means, read the wikipedia entry.

Its basically a cartel. It abuses all Canadians, with high prices that go right into the pockets of politically connected farmers:

Supply management is considered to be one of the most powerful lobbies in Canada by supporters and critics alike.[21]However, critics have pointed out that their tactics are similar to the NRA , a pretty influential lobby in the USA, by using propaganda and fear-mongering to push the interests of a small group of highly motivated actors at the expense of overall national well-being. It has been reported that the supporters spends about $120 million per year on public ad campaigns and political lobbying.

Here's why I'm putting focus on this. Canada is crying about NAFTA. Poor Canada. Why are you torturing us?

Here's part of the why. Canada has a protected dairy and poultry market.

In addition to import quotas, foreign producers face tariffs on their products, that range from 168% for eggs, up to 285% for chicken, 246% for cheese and over 300% for butter. These high tariffs hamper imports in the general food market.

300% butter tariff. Is that free trade? It was negotiated into NAFTA, because the rich dairy farmers want to keep screwing Canadian consumers, and keep our more efficient US producers.

So here's a solid example of what Canada is doing that Trump doesn't like. The current battle has something to do with milk solids of some sort that I think Wisconsin wants to ship north, but the evil cartel north of the border has recategorized in some way to make sure its taxes [[tariffed) and US producers are stopped from providing Canadian citizens with products at fair prices.

In case you think the US unfairly subsidizes its farmers, here's from the same article:

The OECD estimates the subsidy equivalent in 2012 [[producer support estimate) paid to all of Canadian agriculture as 18% of the value of the industry; a majority of this goes to the supply managed sectors although they account for only a small part of Canadian agriculture, meaning that the supply managed sectors have a much higher effective subsidy. In the European Union, the effective subsidies are 27%, with the United States at 10%, Australia [[6%), New Zealand [[1%), Brazil [[6%), and China at 9%.[4]

Not in the article, but I have read that the typical average low-income Canadian family pays $300-500 / year more than they would without 'Supply Management', just to appease rich farmers that write cheques.

So if you want a fair NAFTA, Canada... you can start by stopping this absurd subsidy to the rich today.

Until then, this pro-free-trade American says 'Go Donald'.

[Canadian Visitor]

You gloss over this idea of Supply Management. If you really want to get sick to your stomach over what it really means, read the wikipedia entry.

Its basically a cartel. It abuses all Canadians, with high prices that go right into the pockets of politically connected farmers:

Here's why I'm putting focus on this. Canada is crying about NAFTA. Poor Canada. Why are you torturing us?

Here's part of the why. Canada has a protected dairy and poultry market.

300% butter tariff. Is that free trade? It was negotiated into NAFTA, because the rich dairy farmers want to keep screwing Canadian consumers, and keep our more efficient US producers.

So here's a solid example of what Canada is doing that Trump doesn't like. The current battle has something to do with milk solids of some sort that I think Wisconsin wants to ship north, but the evil cartel north of the border has recategorized in some way to make sure its taxes [[tariffed) and US producers are stopped from providing Canadian citizens with products at fair prices.

In case you think the US unfairly subsidizes its farmers, here's from the same article:

Not in the article, but I have read that the typical average low-income Canadian family pays $300-500 / year more than they would without 'Supply Management', just to appease rich farmers that write cheques.

So if you want a fair NAFTA, Canada... you can start by stopping this absurd subsidy to the rich today.

Until then, this pro-free-trade American says 'Go Donald'.

First, you're wandering well away from the topic of this thread, I was simply answering a question.

If you want to discuss agricultural subsidies we can do so in a different thread.

That said, I will reply here and say your information is wrong.

US Dairy subsidies are vastly higher than that, as are EU subsidies for tiny little dairy farms that would be laughable in Canada.

https://www.realagriculture.com/2018...ys-new-report/

Canada also provides no direct subsidies to milk production, supply management was the alternative way to keep the industry viable [[as opposed to the EU/US way of cutting cheques to farmers).

It is a cartel system, no denying that.

Which is, overall, highly popular w/Canadians, and seen as a superior alternative to direct subsidies, which would come from taxes.

But yes, it does raise prices.

Speaking strictly of milk, the price here would be in the range of $5.99 for 4L.

The difference in butter is a bit more w/store-brands in the range of $3.99 a pound to name-brand cultured butters at $5.99.

Its also worth saying that at the time the original FTA was negotiated subsidies were higher in real terms than they are today, and the Canadian industry would have been decimated or we would have been looking at 5B in annual government subsidies to match US levels.

Subsidies have come off a bit since then.

There is another issue in dairy, pork and chicken which is the US allows growth hormones; Canada does not.

That's one reason excluding most US dairy is seen as desirable. US food product is seen as suspect in these categories.

Canada does allow hormones in beef cattle precisely because the industry is integrated w/the US one. That actually caused enormous headaches during the Canada-EU free trade talks, because the Europeans don't allow hormones in their beef cattle, and we had to create an independent supply chain for export to Europe to gain access to the market.

***

The actual average dairy farmer isn't rich; they may have money on paper because they own 'quota' but that's like saying a taxi driver is rich because they own a hack license.

If someone has enough quota then yes, they've made out well, but those cases are relatively few as its very capital intensive to amass large amounts.

***

I happen to support reforming supply management, and in fact don't oppose getting rid of it all together, subject to the following:

1) All agricultural subsidies everywhere are reduced to zero
2) All growth hormones are banned in meat/dairy animals, as are prophylactic antibiotics.
3) There is full food traceability
4) There are full information consumer labels on all meat/eggs/dairy as in Europe. [[cow breed, cow's birth date and location, cow feed, where the cow was raised, when/where it was slaughtered) .

Of course, if you remove all subsides from the US market, including the diversion of the Colorodo River to irrigated So-Cal's dessert lands.....The US industry isn't all that competitive. Canada has more cheap grazing land and more fresh water.

But I still favour reforming supply management because it does force up some costs arbitrarily relative to others, notably really good European cheeses are way overpriced, Reggiano costs $50.00 per kg or $110 a pound. I usually find it for 1/2 that. But still, that's silly.

Also the system really over prices organics, Organic Butter runs $10 a pound for no good reason.

But convince your government to come to the table w/ethical agricultural policies I'm sure an arrangement could be reached.

Back to Ontario politics? LOL

[Lowell]

So what can we expect from the Ford government as regards the southside communities of our metropolis?

Will this have any effect on the Gordie Howe Bridge? And will the Morouns find favor for their new span? Solidly Orange Windsor seemingly will lose a lot of clout.

[Canadian Visitor]

So what can we expect from the Ford government as regards the southside communities of our metropolis?

Will this have any effect on the Gordie Howe Bridge? And will the Morouns find favor for their new span? Solidly Orange Windsor seemingly will lose a lot of clout.

No effect on the bridge, that's a federal project, financed debt against future tolls, not to mention bilateral agreements w/Michigan and Washington.

In terms of clout, its been rare/a very long time since Windsor proper returned a Conservative, its usually red or orange. I don't see a big change here. The agricultural industry in overwhelming Tory blue in the areas around Windsor/Essex, they'll have some clout; but the community won't be ignored. Its industrial base is automotive and rep'ed by a powerful union which has lots of members across the province and country.

The only major project close to happening which could theoretically be delayed/shelved is the new mega-hospital. But its pretty far along in the process, the land is bought, the zoning in place, so it doesn't seem likely for cancellation. Though a 1-2 year delay to push some costs out wouldn't surprise me. I believe construction was penciled in for 2021 as it stands. Might want to move that to 2022. The 2B price tag being bumped into the next budget cycle I could believe.

I imagine they'll be some cuts to public services at some point but that'll depend on the economy as well as Mr. Ford's decision as to how high to let the deficit run, and whether to deliver his tax cuts or not.

I do expect to see the liberalization of alcohol sales, as this is a relatively cheap promise to deliver and would be popular generally, but particularly so w/the Ford base.

I don't expect to see Beer go much cheaper, but if the minimum selling price is reduced, you may seem some reductions at the margin, especially on two-fours.

The bigger issue for Windsor's economy will be whether NAFTA collapses, and/or a trade war looms.

But there won't be a short-term issue on that front as its simply not easy to modify complex supply chains fast.

[O3H]

Does this mean I can't bring 55 gallon bags of smelt , caught at Point Pele via my hand drag net , in the middle of the night, back home to Detroit ?

[Wesley Mouch]

CV, your 'expectation' post is interesting. It concerns itself with what 'stuff' Ford might decide to 'give'. And since your super-progressive and moderate parties both framed the debate in terms of 'gifts' to voters, I suppose that's to be expected.

Given that Ontario has the 'highest non-soverign debt' in the world, it might be wise for Ford to someone pin the problems back to the Liberals. If he were to, say, defer the Windsor hospital, and say that it gets built the second we are down to 'x billion dollars of debt, could he frame fiscal responsibility as his brand. One that voters would come to understand that responsibility is what really gets you stuff, not just running up the credit card on whatever feels good [[and gets you re-elected). '

Does Ford has aspirations for National office? Seems to me like there's wind against Trudeau at the moment. Lost Ontario for his party [[and didn't seem to campaign). Summer jobs debacle requiring conservatives to affirm their support for abortion. The Indian garb comedy. Ineffectual on NAFTA.

If he has aspirations, and a little smarts, seems like a good time to draw the battle grounds. Smart management vs. Mr. Feelgood.

[Canadian Visitor]

CV, your 'expectation' post is interesting. It concerns itself with what 'stuff' Ford might decide to 'give'. And since your super-progressive and moderate parties both framed the debate in terms of 'gifts' to voters, I suppose that's to be expected.

Given that Ontario has the 'highest non-soverign debt' in the world, it might be wise for Ford to someone pin the problems back to the Liberals. If he were to, say, defer the Windsor hospital, and say that it gets built the second we are down to 'x billion dollars of debt, could he frame fiscal responsibility as his brand. One that voters would come to understand that responsibility is what really gets you stuff, not just running up the credit card on whatever feels good [[and gets you re-elected). '

Does Ford has aspirations for National office? Seems to me like there's wind against Trudeau at the moment. Lost Ontario for his party [[and didn't seem to campaign). Summer jobs debacle requiring conservatives to affirm their support for abortion. The Indian garb comedy. Ineffectual on NAFTA.

If he has aspirations, and a little smarts, seems like a good time to draw the battle grounds. Smart management vs. Mr. Feelgood.

Ontario's debt to GDP is 39%; even when Ottawa's is added in, its still at level below California & the US; and most other G7 countries.

The combined number is around 71%

This compares with California at 12% and the US Federal government at 104% for a total of 116%.

So......

While I'm a deficit hawk and would prefer to see a balanced budget, especially in a period of economic growth, let's not overblow the whole crisis thing.

Ontario is the largest sub-sovereign government in the world, with a budget 15% larger than the State of California.

****

In respect of the election its important to note that Ford made more promises in $ than did the Liberals or the NDP.

His were simply tax cut heavy instead of program spending.

He made over 9B in promises.

****

Mr. Ford is unlikely to be PM

First, fluent French is a requirement, which he currently lacks.

Winning office w/o it is near impossible.

Second, the current leader of the Federal Conservative party was just elected, the next Federal election is October 2019, the Premier is not about to resign and he has no opening there anyway.

Its possible Andrew Scheer could leave that post IF he loses to Trudeau or Singh in the next election, though new leaders usually get 2 kicks at the can before being dumped.

In any event that pushes the next opening off by quite a bit.

Assuming he overcame those two obstacles......

Not a single premier has gone on to be Prime Minister since the 19th Century.

Then only 2 ever made the leap.

So I don't think a national aspiration is at all likely.

[Bham1982]

Does Ford has aspirations for National office? Seems to me like there's wind against Trudeau at the moment. Lost Ontario for his party [[and didn't seem to campaign). Summer jobs debacle requiring conservatives to affirm their support for abortion. The Indian garb comedy. Ineffectual on NAFTA.

As long as the U.S. has Putin's trained chimp in the WH, I think Trudeau looks pretty good. All he has to do is speak in complete sentences and not sound like a raving lunatic, and he seems like a decent statesman.

And considering Trump's bizarre post G-7 temper tantrum, akin to a soiled toddler, I'd say the other world leaders look anything but weak on world trade.

[Wesley Mouch]

Ontario's debt to GDP is 39%; even when Ottawa's is added in, its still at level below California & the US; and most other G7 countries.

The combined number is around 71%

This compares with California at 12% and the US Federal government at 104% for a total of 116%.
...
In respect of the election its important to note that Ford made more promises in $ than did the Liberals or the NDP.

My debt factlet was not based on anything, except what I'd hear on street corners. So I appreciate the perspective.

Sub-sovereign [[state/provincial) debt is a bit different, it seems, than sovereign [[country). And there are many ways to calculate [[bond debt, interest payments, etc.).

So......

While I'm a deficit hawk and would prefer to see a balanced budget, especially in a period of economic growth, let's not overblow the whole crisis thing.

Ontario is the largest sub-sovereign government in the world, with a budget 15% larger than the State of California.

So I have little idea now what is true. From your figures, the provincial/state debt of Ontario is 39%, and California is 12%. That of course omits the sovereign [[country) debt -- which seems like its a different beast.

The consensus of articles [[which means little) seems to be that Ontario's debt is a major concern, but that it is possible to manage it -- which would seem to be Ford's argument. And one certainly not made seriously by the other parties. [[Yes, they talked about it -- and basically said it'd get handled in the future -- which is not comforting coming from a politician.).

I think Ontario voters think that Ontario debt is a problem. The left wants to hear about solving 'inequality'. The right wants to hear about financial responsibility and not have progressive answers shoved down their throats.

This is an opening for the Canadian right, I think.

...
Mr. Ford is unlikely to be PM

First, fluent French is a requirement, which he currently lacks.

Winning office w/o it is near impossible.

Second, the current leader of the Federal Conservative party was just elected, the next Federal election is October 2019, the Premier is not about to resign and he has no opening there anyway.

Its possible Andrew Scheer could leave that post IF he loses to Trudeau or Singh in the next election, though new leaders usually get 2 kicks at the can before being dumped.

In any event that pushes the next opening off by quite a bit.

Assuming he overcame those two obstacles......

Not a single premier has gone on to be Prime Minister since the 19th Century.

Then only 2 ever made the leap.

So I don't think a national aspiration is at all likely.

You're probably right, but it'll depend on how it plays out. Trump is beating on Supply Management. If someone dares take on the Canadian Cheese Mafia, and delivers on halving the price of cheese, dairy, and chicken -- it may not matter that they don't speak French fluently.

A really big problem in Canada is the stinginess with cheese. Making great cheesy pizza affordable in Canada might just create a blue wave across Anglophone Canada sweeping a populist into, is it 24 Sussex.

[Canadian Visitor]

So I have little idea now what is true. From your figures, the provincial/state debt of Ontario is 39%, and California is 12%. That of course omits the sovereign [[country) debt -- which seems like its a different beast.

It can be [[different that is); they are different government's of course, with their own budgets, so its different in that sense at the minimum.

But it may be further different, depending on a country's constitution.

Obviously, you [[the United States) allow Cities to go bankrupt in the legal sense.

I'm not sure how you treat 'States'.

There is no mechanism in Canadian law for this.

In Ontario, cities are 'creatures of the province' which means the province backstops all debt.

While that is not the wording in reference to the Federal-Provincial relationship; Canada [[Federally) ultimately backstops provincial debts; at least in theory. There is no mechanism for a province to go bankrupt; but none has ever been all that close, so the matter has never been formally tested.

Needless to say, Ontario is nowhere near those levels. The concern is that economic times are good, and yet deficits have been a feature of government budgets for all but one year [[last year) since the last recession.

Debt to GDP, while still moderate, is near record highs for Ontario, and it certainly can't be allowed to grow indefinitely.

The fair question is by what means the structural deficit is resolved. 60% of Ontarians voted tax hike, 40% voted for no plan at all. [[FORD)

******

You're probably right, but it'll depend on how it plays out. Trump is beating on Supply Management. If someone dares take on the Canadian Cheese Mafia, and delivers on halving the price of cheese, dairy, and chicken -- it may not matter that they don't speak French fluently.

A really big problem in Canada is the stinginess with cheese. Making great cheesy pizza affordable in Canada might just create a blue wave across Anglophone Canada sweeping a populist into, is it 24 Sussex.

I think your wrong on that.

First off, supply management is broadly popular with 75% support from the general public.

https://www.campaignresearch.ca/sing...twood-industry

Second, Maxime Bernier a former cabinet minister in the Harper government, and known Libertarian, ran for the Conservative party leadership on just this issue.

He lost, to Andrew Scheer.

[[in fairness, Big Dairy may have had something to do w/that.....)

http://business.financialpost.com/op...-conservatives

Third, Canadians are acutely aware that Australia ditched supply management, and its dairy industry is going broke, and requiring government bailouts.

After early success, New Zealand is facing similar problems.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/201...saputo/9617542

****

Finally, you know its like the US doesn't protect its industries in a vast assortment of ways, not just 'Buy American'.

Check out the way the US protects domestic sugar, tobacco and a host of other products.

[oladub]

Ontario's debt to GDP is 39%; even when Ottawa's is added in, its still at level below California & the US; and most other G7 countries.

The combined number is around 71%

This compares with California at 12% and the US Federal government at 104% for a total of 116%.

Ontario is the largest sub-sovereign government in the world, with a budget 15% larger than the State of California.

California has the highest taxes in the U.S. per capita and has 3x the population of Ontario. Why should Ontario be sporting a larger debt than California and be the "largest sub-government in the world" although its population is 1/3 that of Ontario's? My guess is that Ontario's government collects health care taxes while Californians mostly pay for private health care policies thus making budget comparisons difficult.

[Canadian Visitor]

California has the highest taxes in the U.S. per capita and has 3x the population of Ontario. Why should Ontario be sporting a larger debt than California and be the "largest sub-government in the world" although its population is 1/3 that of Ontario's? My guess is that Ontario's government collects health care taxes while Californians mostly pay for private health care policies thus making budget comparisons difficult.

You somewhat answered your own question.

But I'll elaborate

Canadian provinces are much larger governments relative to US States.

Our Federal government is relatively smaller compared to yours.

Canada is a relatively loose federation of provinces.

Compare this way:

US Federal Budget 4.1 Trillion.
Cdn Federal Budget 338B

The U.S. population is 326 million
Canada's population is 37 million
Canada's population is 11.3% of the U.S. number
If Canada's Federal budget were 11.3% of the US one then it would be 463 Billion or almost 40% larger than it is.

That spending occurs at the provincial level in Canada, not the Federal.

Or looked at another way, If you totaled all spending by US States its a small fraction of US Federal spending.

If you totaled all spending the provinces and territories it exceeds Canadian Federal spending.

Just a different way of organizing things.

[Wesley Mouch]

You somewhat answered your own question.

But I'll elaborate

Canadian provinces are much larger governments relative to US States.

Our Federal government is relatively smaller compared to yours.

Canada is a relatively loose federation of provinces.

Compare this way:

US Federal Budget 4.1 Trillion.
Cdn Federal Budget 338B

The U.S. population is 326 million
Canada's population is 37 million
Canada's population is 11.3% of the U.S. number
If Canada's Federal budget were 11.3% of the US one then it would be 463 Billion or almost 40% larger than it is.

That spending occurs at the provincial level in Canada, not the Federal.

Or looked at another way, If you totaled all spending by US States its a small fraction of US Federal spending.

If you totaled all spending the provinces and territories it exceeds Canadian Federal spending.

Just a different way of organizing things.

I get your point. Thank you.

Health Care being 'on the books' is certainly one thing inflating Canadian provincial budgets.

In the other direction, federal spending on military is quite a bit heavier in the US. Recent Forbes article suggests US at 3.5% of GDP, and Canada at 1%.

[Canadian Visitor]

I get your point. Thank you.

Health Care being 'on the books' is certainly one thing inflating Canadian provincial budgets.

In the other direction, federal spending on military is quite a bit heavier in the US. Recent Forbes article suggests US at 3.5% of GDP, and Canada at 1%.

Canadian defense spending is 1.3% of GDP, or about 20B per year on a 1.5T GDP.

A level i think is reasonable'ish.

Considering its the 14th highest in the world.