The Retail Implosion Nibbling at 12 Oaks Mall

[cmubryan]

Sears at 12 Oaks was extensively remodeled in the 1990s [[new flooring, paint, depts. moved around). I believe the JCPenney has also received a few remodels over the years. Of course, nothing compares to the complete gut job and expansion that Macy's received several years ago. It resembles nothing of its past Hudson's/Marshall Field days, completely whitewashed with all personality removed [[IMHO).

I find it interesting the paths that Fairlane and 12 Oaks took. They started off as sister malls, closely resembling each other. 12 Oaks developed in a burgeoning area, kick-starting a lot of new development that would happen after the formation of the mall. Fairlane was built in an established older area, close to the inner city. Well...we all know what ended up happening and 12 Oaks surrounding area is still not even as old as Fairlane's was 40+ years ago when they were both built.

I spent some time at 12 Oaks this weekend. While I did see a few vacancies, I don't see this mall dying off anytime soon. Perhaps with the downfall of other malls, [[particularly Northland which 12 Oaks helped kill) the clientele has gotten more diverse. If a new mall was developed in Commerce or Milford this would definitely lead to 12 Oaks downfall, repeating Metro Detroit's pattern of abandoning old malls and neighborhoods for new. However, until that happens, I suspect that 12 Oaks will continue to thrive. Additionally, the retail climate has changed too much and the Millennials are growing tired of urban sprawl where I doubt a new further out regional mall will ever happen, thus 12 Oaks has a good future.

[PJSzerszen]

Yes, I do remember the 1996-ish renovation on Sears. They also painted the exterior brick from a dark brown to the hodgepodge of beige it is today and finally updated the logo that had been changed 12 years prior. It was fairly significant, I remember the "grand reopening" which slightly coincided with the completion of renovations on the rest of the mall and one of the radio stations being there.

It's interesting to see how things are now progressing in a relatively short time. Sears is obviously closing there in March. It's been reported that Hudson's Bay is considering at the very least closing about 20% of Lord & Taylors [[or perhaps closing the entire chain). Two stores like Novi and Sterling Heights makes sense, but Lakeside is dying quickly and one store may not make sense logistically, so I can see them pulling out of Novi too. JCPenney is hanging on, though expected to close more stores. The Novi store still seems fairly busy, even if newer stores have been built further out that may have significantly cut into Novi's share [[White Lake, Canton, Brighton, etc.). Still, unless they can shed massive debt, I'm not sure they will be able to sustain.

So that's one confirmed anchor closing and two more that I think are more likely than not in the next 3-5 years [[perhaps sooner). Can Macy's and Nordstrom sustain Twelve Oaks Mall? Can Taubman demand the rates charged today in a center with such vacancies?

I wouldn't think Taubman would let that happen. But then again, I am quite surprised that we haven't heard anything about what's going to happen with Sears. They must have been expecting it. It seems most of the Class 'A' centers that have lost Sears have very rapidly replaced them, often announcing their plans at the time of [[or even before) the Sears closing.

But that's where it gets interesting. Sears was to sell their store earlier in 2018 at an auction but canceled it just prior. So I believe Sears Holdings still owns that land/building. With them being in bankruptcy, and with the potential for it to be a very messy bankruptcy, I think there's a chance it could be a while before that building becomes available. Lampert may end up with the real estate, if so, I assume Taubman wants it.

But then what do they make of it? A restaurant pavilion? A new luxury cinema? Split it up and hope a new junior anchor is eyeing Detroit? Okay. Then what do you make of the next vacant anchors? There's only so much you can do with 1.5Msf of space. At some point, it becomes too inefficient trying to make a purpose-built 1970s structure work in 2030, as ahead of its time as it was then. This is a flagship center for Taubman, so I'm sure they are going to do whatever they need to do maintain the status quo. They just sunk a ton of money into Beverly Center.

So I'm very curious to see what the next year or so has in store for Novi. I grew up as that area was growing up and it's interesting to see it age and change.

Sears at 12 Oaks was extensively remodeled in the 1990s [[new flooring, paint, depts. moved around). I believe the JCPenney has also received a few remodels over the years. Of course, nothing compares to the complete gut job and expansion that Macy's received several years ago. It resembles nothing of its past Hudson's/Marshall Field days, completely whitewashed with all personality removed [[IMHO).

I find it interesting the paths that Fairlane and 12 Oaks took. They started off as sister malls, closely resembling each other. 12 Oaks developed in a burgeoning area, kick-starting a lot of new development that would happen after the formation of the mall. Fairlane was built in an established older area, close to the inner city. Well...we all know what ended up happening and 12 Oaks surrounding area is still not even as old as Fairlane's was 40+ years ago when they were both built.

I spent some time at 12 Oaks this weekend. While I did see a few vacancies, I don't see this mall dying off anytime soon. Perhaps with the downfall of other malls, [[particularly Northland which 12 Oaks helped kill) the clientele has gotten more diverse. If a new mall was developed in Commerce or Milford this would definitely lead to 12 Oaks downfall, repeating Metro Detroit's pattern of abandoning old malls and neighborhoods for new. However, until that happens, I suspect that 12 Oaks will continue to thrive. Additionally, the retail climate has changed too much and the Millennials are growing tired of urban sprawl where I doubt a new further out regional mall will ever happen, thus 12 Oaks has a good future.

[Bham1982]

So that's one confirmed anchor closing and two more that I think are more likely than not in the next 3-5 years [[perhaps sooner). Can Macy's and Nordstrom sustain Twelve Oaks Mall? Can Taubman demand the rates charged today in a center with such vacancies?

This is not at all what is happening. Taubman is very happy Sears is gone, and it will make for a stronger asset. They've probably known Sears is gone for nearly a decade.

First, mall anchors essentially don't pay rent. The in-line shops pay the rent, and the anchors are given sweetheart deals.

The whole mall operating model is that the anchors attract consumers to the in-line retail. Given that Sears attracted almost no-one, it's a net plus when that space is freed up for something else. Whatever goes there will be much more productive than Sears.

Also, JCPenney is relatively healthy and isn't going anywhere. And Lord & Taylor has strong ownership and generally isn't closing mall anchors, but urban sites where redevelopment is more lucrative.

[313WX]

...JCPenney is relatively healthy...

There's nothing "relatively healthy" about a company that hasn't made a profit since 2010 and whose debt is ranked junk status.

While its near-term debt isn't bad and it's not showing signs of going belly up immediately, it's suffering from the same structural and consumer perception issues that led to Sears' demise and it's showing no signs of fixing them.

[401don]

This is not at all what is happening. Taubman is very happy Sears is gone, and it will make for a stronger asset. They've probably known Sears is gone for nearly a decade.

First, mall anchors essentially don't pay rent. The in-line shops pay the rent, and the anchors are given sweetheart deals.

The whole mall operating model is that the anchors attract consumers to the in-line retail. Given that Sears attracted almost no-one, it's a net plus when that space is freed up for something else. Whatever goes there will be much more productive than Sears.

Also, JCPenney is relatively healthy and isn't going anywhere. And Lord & Taylor has strong ownership and generally isn't closing mall anchors, but urban sites where redevelopment is more lucrative.

I don't buy it. Two healthy malls in upper-middle income areas here in the Toronto suburbs, Erin Mills and Oakville Town Centres, were anchored by Sears and The Bay. One year after Sears closing, both Sears locations sit empty.

[iheartthed]

Yes, I do remember the 1996-ish renovation on Sears. They also painted the exterior brick from a dark brown to the hodgepodge of beige it is today and finally updated the logo that had been changed 12 years prior. It was fairly significant, I remember the "grand reopening" which slightly coincided with the completion of renovations on the rest of the mall and one of the radio stations being there.

It's interesting to see how things are now progressing in a relatively short time. Sears is obviously closing there in March. It's been reported that Hudson's Bay is considering at the very least closing about 20% of Lord & Taylors [[or perhaps closing the entire chain). Two stores like Novi and Sterling Heights makes sense, but Lakeside is dying quickly and one store may not make sense logistically, so I can see them pulling out of Novi too. JCPenney is hanging on, though expected to close more stores. The Novi store still seems fairly busy, even if newer stores have been built further out that may have significantly cut into Novi's share [[White Lake, Canton, Brighton, etc.). Still, unless they can shed massive debt, I'm not sure they will be able to sustain.

So that's one confirmed anchor closing and two more that I think are more likely than not in the next 3-5 years [[perhaps sooner). Can Macy's and Nordstrom sustain Twelve Oaks Mall? Can Taubman demand the rates charged today in a center with such vacancies?

I wouldn't think Taubman would let that happen. But then again, I am quite surprised that we haven't heard anything about what's going to happen with Sears. They must have been expecting it. It seems most of the Class 'A' centers that have lost Sears have very rapidly replaced them, often announcing their plans at the time of [[or even before) the Sears closing.

But that's where it gets interesting. Sears was to sell their store earlier in 2018 at an auction but canceled it just prior. So I believe Sears Holdings still owns that land/building. With them being in bankruptcy, and with the potential for it to be a very messy bankruptcy, I think there's a chance it could be a while before that building becomes available. Lampert may end up with the real estate, if so, I assume Taubman wants it.

But then what do they make of it? A restaurant pavilion? A new luxury cinema? Split it up and hope a new junior anchor is eyeing Detroit? Okay. Then what do you make of the next vacant anchors? There's only so much you can do with 1.5Msf of space. At some point, it becomes too inefficient trying to make a purpose-built 1970s structure work in 2030, as ahead of its time as it was then. This is a flagship center for Taubman, so I'm sure they are going to do whatever they need to do maintain the status quo. They just sunk a ton of money into Beverly Center.

So I'm very curious to see what the next year or so has in store for Novi. I grew up as that area was growing up and it's interesting to see it age and change.

Department and big box stores are having a rough time in general. The concept is not adapting well to the 21st century. Lord & Taylor just closed their flagship store on Fifth Avenue in Manhattan and sold the building to WeWork. It doesn't take a business analyst to figure out that they did it because they needed a quick infusion of cash. Selling the building to WeWork is ironic and perhaps prophetic.

I think the trend of malls over the next decade - the ones that survive at least - will be to become shopping and office hybrids, or even shopping, living, and office hybrids. The era of single purpose destinations has passed.

[Onthe405]

Department and big box stores are having a rough time in general. The concept is not adapting well to the 21st century.

I think the trend of malls over the next decade - the ones that survive at least - will be to become shopping and office hybrids, or even shopping, living, and office hybrids. The era of single purpose destinations has passed.

So true. Regardless of age or income demographics, it's blatantly obvious that Twelve Oaks, Somerset--and all traditional malls as we see them today [["traditional" defined as large anchor departments stores surrounded by specialty shops & restaurants) are headed toward the "transform or die" mode with regard to property re-purposing.

Case in point, the senior management at Kohl's & Macy's were blindsided by the degree of weakness in brick & mortar sales this past holiday season. These middle-market retailers [[accompanied by their "walking dead" brethren Sears & JCP) are still overly reliant on the mall format, and are getting slammed the worst.

Discounters [[Target & Wal Mart) seem to have leveraged technology more effectively for the type of merchandise they sell:

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/t...121613100.html

For the first time in about 7 years, I happened into Lakeside during the peak of the holiday season. It is dying--and fast. It looked alarmingly akin to the worst days of Summit & Universal just before their demise. Sears is a hulking carcass, entire wings are empty, the department stores have more help than customers, the specialty shops are drifting toward the lottery ticket/cell phone/wig & nail salon variety, and the desperate salespeople are out in front of the stores like circus barkers attempting to lure the few forlorn passers-by into their establishment.

Cred to Sterling Heights, as they have already begun to solicit redevelopment plans, with some prospective investors. Unfortunately for Waterford & Harper Woods, there doesn't appear to be anyone willing to take the gamble yet.

[softailrider]

So true. Regardless of age or income demographics, it's blatantly obvious that Twelve Oaks, Somerset--and all traditional malls as we see them today [["traditional" defined as large anchor departments stores surrounded by specialty shops & restaurants) are headed toward the "transform or die" mode with regard to property re-purposing.

Case in point, the senior management at Kohl's & Macy's were blindsided by the degree of weakness in brick & mortar sales this past holiday season. These middle-market retailers [[accompanied by their "walking dead" brethren Sears & JCP) are still overly reliant on the mall format, and are getting slammed the worst.

Discounters [[Target & Wal Mart) seem to have leveraged technology more effectively for the type of merchandise they sell:

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/t...121613100.html

For the first time in about 7 years, I happened into Lakeside during the peak of the holiday season. It is dying--and fast. It looked alarmingly akin to the worst days of Summit & Universal just before their demise. Sears is a hulking carcass, entire wings are empty, the department stores have more help than customers, the specialty shops are drifting toward the lottery ticket/cell phone/wig & nail salon variety, and the desperate salespeople are out in front of the stores like circus barkers attempting to lure the few forlorn passers-by into their establishment.

Cred to Sterling Heights, as they have already begun to solicit redevelopment plans, with some prospective investors. Unfortunately for Waterford & Harper Woods, there doesn't appear to be anyone willing to take the gamble yet.

Oy Vey..... that’s a very ugly picture you painted.

[iheartthed]

Case in point, the senior management at Kohl's & Macy's were blindsided by the degree of weakness in brick & mortar sales this past holiday season. These middle-market retailers [[accompanied by their "walking dead" brethren Sears & JCP) are still overly reliant on the mall format, and are getting slammed the worst.

Ironically, Macy's stock suffered its worst decline in its history today: https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/10/busin...ock/index.html

[401don]

We are quickly reaching the stage where, depending on the size of the city, there will be 1-3 large, traditional malls. They will become destinations similar to a Great Lakes Crossing, where instead of going weekly because it's your neighborhood mall, you visit once every month or two and spend the day. The question is if enough chain retailers can survive with a lot fewer stores. They will need a strong online presence as well. The neighborhood mall is replaced by Walmart and the rest of the big boxes.

[Bham1982]

There's nothing "relatively healthy" about a company that hasn't made a profit since 2010 and whose debt is ranked junk status.

That describes a whole host of companies, including many of our largest local manufacturing concerns. They aren't going anywhere, and neither is JCPenney, at least not in the near-term [[barring a depression or some catastrophic event).

[Bham1982]

I don't buy it. Two healthy malls in upper-middle income areas here in the Toronto suburbs, Erin Mills and Oakville Town Centres, were anchored by Sears and The Bay. One year after Sears closing, both Sears locations sit empty.

I don't understand your point. No one claimed that no retail center would ever be forced to evolve. Shopping centers open and close all the time.

You conveniently "forgot" to mention that Toronto's largest retail centers are among the most successful in North America, and are undergoing expansions. You "forgot" to mention that Yorkdale is ridiculously profitable. You "forgot" to mention that Nordstrom has opened three Toronto-area mall stores in recent years, Saks has opened, and Whole Foods and other anchors are expanding.

We know what this whole thread is about. It's a bunch of hardcore urban enthusiasts desperately hoping that suburbia dies and everyone moves back to Dexter Davison. Good luck with that. Novi and Troy have larger tax base than the entire city of Detroit. Twelve Oaks is extremely successful and that retail corridor will outlive all of us.

And the malls that have died are suffering from the outward shift of blight from Detroit. A mall's relative viability is basically a function of local demographic trends. When Northland/Eastland/Universal shut down it wasn't a vote of confidence in Detroit, it was an indictment of its growing poverty and decline.

[313WX]

That describes a whole host of companies, including many of our largest local manufacturing concerns.

That is true.

[hybridy]

We are quickly reaching the stage where, depending on the size of the city, there will be 1-3 large, traditional malls. They will become destinations similar to a Great Lakes Crossing, where instead of going weekly because it's your neighborhood mall, you visit once every month or two and spend the day. The question is if enough chain retailers can survive with a lot fewer stores. They will need a strong online presence as well. The neighborhood mall is replaced by Walmart and the rest of the big boxes.

once a month? how about once a quarter

[DetroitGuy423]

I don't understand your point. No one claimed that no retail center would ever be forced to evolve. Shopping centers open and close all the time.

You conveniently "forgot" to mention that Toronto's largest retail centers are among the most successful in North America, and are undergoing expansions. You "forgot" to mention that Yorkdale is ridiculously profitable. You "forgot" to mention that Nordstrom has opened three Toronto-area mall stores in recent years, Saks has opened, and Whole Foods and other anchors are expanding.

We know what this whole thread is about. It's a bunch of hardcore urban enthusiasts desperately hoping that suburbia dies and everyone moves back to Dexter Davison. Good luck with that. Novi and Troy have larger tax base than the entire city of Detroit. Twelve Oaks is extremely successful and that retail corridor will outlive all of us.

And the malls that have died are suffering from the outward shift of blight from Detroit. A mall's relative viability is basically a function of local demographic trends. When Northland/Eastland/Universal shut down it wasn't a vote of confidence in Detroit, it was an indictment of its growing poverty and decline.

Well, your positive outlook on JCP and Lord & Taylor and the mall in general might put you in the category of "bunch of hardcore suburban mall enthusiasts..." I don't think anybody is doubting that 12 Oaks has been a successful mall, but to argue that it does not have significant struggles on the horizon is a bit irrational. 12 Oaks has 5 anchor stores, one of which is closing, and two more are struggling and their future existence has been questioned. That leaves the potential for 12 Oaks to have 3 vacant anchor stores out of it's current 5. Vacant department store hulks give an overall perception that a mall is dying and it also triggers clauses in the tenants to either reduce their rent or terminate early. I'm sure Taubman is quite concerned about the health of JCP and Lord and Taylor and whether it will be dealing with 3 vacant anchor stores in the next few years with arguably nothing to replace them.

[sirrealone]

Somerset North has two anchors, but Macy's is a complete dump and I don't see it as a huge draw. Yet that part of the mall still stays extremely busy. I think a mall can still attract traffic and be a draw if it's well designed, has a good mix of retailers, and in a well placed area.

I think places like 12 Oaks, Somerset, and Great Lakes will be fine. But the other malls [[e.g. Lakeside, Oakland, etc.) probably not so much.

[iheartthed]

And the malls that have died are suffering from the outward shift of blight from Detroit. A mall's relative viability is basically a function of local demographic trends. When Northland/Eastland/Universal shut down it wasn't a vote of confidence in Detroit, it was an indictment of its growing poverty and decline.

Then what's the solution? It's only so long before it gets to Birmingham.

[masterblaster]

And the malls that have died are suffering from the outward shift of blight from Detroit. A mall's relative viability is basically a function of local demographic trends. When Northland/Eastland/Universal shut down it wasn't a vote of confidence in Detroit, it was an indictment of its growing poverty and decline.

Then how do you explain the decline of Oakland Mall and Lakeside Mall. Westland and Laurel Park Place. Those are not anywhere near blight.

[masterblaster]

We know what this whole thread is about. It's a bunch of hardcore urban enthusiasts desperately hoping that suburbia dies and everyone moves back to Dexter Davison. Good luck with that. Novi and Troy have larger tax base than the entire city of Detroit. Twelve Oaks is extremely successful and that retail corridor will outlive all of us.

And the malls that have died are suffering from the outward shift of blight from Detroit. A mall's relative viability is basically a function of local demographic trends. When Northland/Eastland/Universal shut down it wasn't a vote of confidence in Detroit, it was an indictment of its growing poverty and decline.

The vast majority of the people on this forum live in the suburbs and I don't think they want their local malls to close down because that would indicate THEIR own communities are in decline. I am a city resident and I don't want ANY malls to close. Who wants to see that blight like the Pontiac Mall? Who wants former employees of mall stores out of work?

[313WX]

Lakeside, Westland, Northland, Macomb, Eastland, Fairlane, Universal, etc. all served a working class/blue collar demographic who took a massive hit in their buying power since the early 2000s when the auto industry collapse began. Thus, the aforementioned demographic doesn't do as much shopping as they used to and retailers are no longer interested in serving this group of customer, because they're not profitable enough. In fact, new-age stores like Whole Foods, Trader Joe's, etc. brag about only operating in affluent communities [[because only they deserve access to fresh/organic food, right?).

As far as Oakland, I think it was victim of overbuilding that occurred during the mid 1980s - late 2000s. When Somerset as we know it was built out in the mid 90s, Oakland was basically having to compete with it for the same customer base. Obviously, people will migrate to the new and shiny place over the poorly aging one.

[casscorridor]

Hardly ever mentioned in these discussions is the dissolving of communities that coalesce at malls. For many people, this is one of the only places where they interact in any form of public space [[however privatized this 'public' space may be). Suburbanization privatized public space and and now this private 'public' space is disappearing too. The end is atomized individuals, in individual cars, going home to their private families. The only interacting with others is through the workplace or extend family. The only interaction with the outside world is through their phone/internet, which is privatized and individualized too and atomized into filter bubbles. How can there be any conception of a public in such a situation?

[Onthe405]

Hardly ever mentioned in these discussions is the dissolving of communities that coalesce at malls. For many people, this is one of the only places where they interact in any form of public space [[however privatized this 'public' space may be).

We can also add declining attendance at churches/houses of worship, social organizations like Rotary/the Scouts/Lions Club et al, and volunteerism of any variety.

To your point, regarding my earlier observations about Lakeside, I noticed management posted signs that banned "mall walkers". It stated that no one was allowed to loiter before the stores open at 10am. Considering "walkers" are generally seniors escaping the cold in an innocent effort to obtain some exercise & social interaction, it's a sad commentary. I'm guessing the ban is probably related to liability. Management cannot provide security for the entire mall, and, at that hour, the stores don't even have any employees to serve as a second set of eyes in case of a criminal or health emergency.

At the risk of drifting completely off-topic, I would also add another offshoot of our "atomized individual" society is the ever-increasing coarseness in how we treat each other: rudeness, indifference, and lack of empathy have become normalized. Back when there was more social interaction, skills like protocol & politeness were required.

[Bham1982]

Lakeside is dying because of nearby, much nicer Partridge Creek, not because Macomb residents stopped shopping at malls.

If you have a stagnant population and double the mall retail space, obviously the old malls will die.

[Bham1982]

Then how do you explain the decline of Oakland Mall and Lakeside Mall. Westland and Laurel Park Place. Those are not anywhere near blight.

Not true. Sterling Heights and Madison Heights are worse off than decades ago. The retail has declined because the demographics are perceived to have worsened. Van Dyke and John R are both very downscale corridors. The hollowing out of the auto industry was devastating for those types of areas [[not poor but not particularly prosperous).

When Somerset North opened, that shifted the consumer base away from 14/John R. When Partridge Creek opened, that shifted the base from Van Dyke to Hall.

Look at the strip malls along Van Dyke in Sterling Heights. It's mostly 99c stores, blood banks, trampoline centers, rent-a-centers and the like. It wasn't like that 20 years ago, pre-auto collapse.

[PJSzerszen]

I'm not so sure Taubman has much control over what's happening though. I too am sure they've seen it coming for many years.

The financing/partnership model that Taubman used to build Twelve Oaks and other centers makes things complicated here because Homart [[Sears' development arm) was an early partner [[by way of Novi Associates). Twelve Oaks is a legal property subdivision and each of the anchor stores are on "lots" that include their building and adjacent parking, owned by their partner. Taubman doesn't own Sears or its land. And Sears was able to get some concessions for its partnership, although Taubman bought out their share in the mall itself after Homart disbanded around 1995. I've seen some of the deeds involved in malls, and I wouldn't be surprised if Sears actually has more say in what happens to Twelve Oaks than Taubman has say in what happens to Sears. I've seen many historical correspondences where Sears had to give approval for changes at the mall, including forcing design alterations to a proposed-but-never-built parking garage that would have altered the view of its sign from Novi Road in the early-90s.

As days go on, it sounds like Sears' bankruptcy may go on for a very long time [[years, perhaps) as transactions are investigated and perhaps unwound. And as of today, according to the City of Novi, Sears still owns that building. Interestingly, there's also a comment that says "Top 20 Sears" in the assessor's notes.

And while it's true that Sears hasn't contributed for years, it still serves as an access point for the mall and those tenants adjacent and down that wing aren't going to be as happy.

It will be interesting to see how long it sits and if Lampert ends up with everything, just the real estate, or nothing at all. One thing's for certain, things are changing. It just seems like Novi has been so dependent on retail for so long that it feels invincible to some degree, but it's wise of them to really think 30 years out and understand things are changing very rapidly.

A young and fresh me standing in a young and fresh 1993 Summit Place Mall wouldn't have ever imagined the whole place would be deserted 20 years later. Waterford was caught off guard too I think until it was too late. I'm not saying Novi is Waterford, just that things change a lot over 20-30 years. But that flies.

Update: It looks like it may possibly be one of the stores Sears put up as collateral to the PBGC to secure pensions. And that's all tied to all of the other Lampert deals, so that may be messy. That also would perhaps explain the cancellation of the auction sale. But I think the BK absolves their claim and it will be up to the BK court to sell it for recovery [[possibly to another ESL arm, which just makes my head spin). Just a guess.

This is not at all what is happening. Taubman is very happy Sears is gone, and it will make for a stronger asset. They've probably known Sears is gone for nearly a decade.

First, mall anchors essentially don't pay rent. The in-line shops pay the rent, and the anchors are given sweetheart deals.

The whole mall operating model is that the anchors attract consumers to the in-line retail. Given that Sears attracted almost no-one, it's a net plus when that space is freed up for something else. Whatever goes there will be much more productive than Sears.

Also, JCPenney is relatively healthy and isn't going anywhere. And Lord & Taylor has strong ownership and generally isn't closing mall anchors, but urban sites where redevelopment is more lucrative.