The Retail Implosion Nibbling at 12 Oaks Mall

[PJSzerszen]

My thoughts are that as long as people are getting around in cars and 5 freeways come together right there, that land is always going to be some big regional draw. One of the early proposed sites for what would become the Silverdome was in Walled Lake for the same reasons.

But 20 years from now, I'm not so sure much of the 1977 Gruen footprint still exists. I don't think it hurts to think 20-30 years in the future and imagine it.

If the people of Metro Detroit ever decide that an expanded regional transit system is what they want, that location has been designated a transit center because that interchange lends itself to another hub in the freeway spokes. If that happens, there needs to be more density there. I could very easily see 20-story buildings there. I don't think the current arrangement would be the most efficient use of that land. I could see some sort of regional draw [[perhaps even a stadium or something of that type), with or without parts of the 1977 building. I think it looks drastically different in 2040.

There's a ton of value locked up in that land that I'm sure TCO would [[and should) monetize. Parking structure[[s) would free up more.

If you've seen the proposal for the Lakeside site, that's what needs to happen at Twelve Oaks too. That's smart future planning. Novi may be able to support a greater ratio of retail than the Lakeside site [[and portions of the building may survive), but there needs to be more than just retail. And that needs to be addressed in Novi now as planning can take a decade. I don't think what TCO did with Beverly Center is going to work in Novi, but the site is very different and BC has always had issues with its design. 12OM is very clean in comparison with a big wide canvas of parking surrounding it [[and a few vacant buildings facing Novi Rd apparently still owned by Best Buy, from a failed attempt to build a 2-story store there about 10 years ago).

Regardless, as with all of this era of malls, the parts that Gruen originally envisioned [[the true mixed-use community downtowns) that developers cut... those need to be built. He was right. A retail-only shopping mall will not cut it. Main Street doesn't just have retail.

But if all else fails, maybe... Twelve Oaks Mall Outlets. Or maybe it loses a few limbs and keeps on as is. I hope it can.

Department and big box stores are having a rough time in general. The concept is not adapting well to the 21st century. Lord & Taylor just closed their flagship store on Fifth Avenue in Manhattan and sold the building to WeWork. It doesn't take a business analyst to figure out that they did it because they needed a quick infusion of cash. Selling the building to WeWork is ironic and perhaps prophetic.

I think the trend of malls over the next decade - the ones that survive at least - will be to become shopping and office hybrids, or even shopping, living, and office hybrids. The era of single purpose destinations has passed.

[Bham1982]

If you've seen the proposal for the Lakeside site, that's what needs to happen at Twelve Oaks too.

Twelve Oaks has much better demographics than Lakeside. Much higher incomes, region is still growing [[areas to west like S. Lyon have highest new home construction totals in Michigan, with 500k homes going up everywhere) and there is significant wealth in Northville/Novi/W. Bloomfield. Also Ann Arbor, Livingston County and even Lansing area residents patronize Twelve Oaks [[many of the retailers are not available in those areas).

Also, Twelve Oaks is the dominant westside retail center, while Partridge Creek is the dominant eastside retail center. A better westside analogy to Lakeside would be Laurel Park Place [[which suffered after Twelve Oaks expanded).

Almost all of Metro Detroit's dying malls have a newer retail to "blame". Summit Place died after GL Crossing was built, Westland Mall died after Ford Rd. in Canton was developed, etc. If population is stagnant, new retail will kill old retail.

[hybridy]

Lord + Taylor to close at Lakeside Mall in Sterling Heights

Store to close by Sept. 15
97 employees to be laid off
Closure is another blow to struggling Macomb County mall

[Danny]

Lord + Taylor to close at Lakeside Mall in Sterling Heights

Looks like Lakeside is going to be the next dead mall while Partridge Creek is still thriving as long they have a theatre to assist.

[DetroitGuy423]

I don't think Lord + Taylor will be around much longer.

[JBMcB]

I think there are a bunch of tentative plans on the table for Lakeside, including converting a portion to a senior living development, which there already quite a few of in the area. Ironically, a mixed-use living/shopping type situation is what the inventor of the indoor mall originally had in mind. In any case, I think it's a great idea for reusing the structure.

[Vic01]

I think there are a bunch of tentative plans on the table for Lakeside, including converting a portion to a senior living development, which there already quite a few of in the area. Ironically, a mixed-use living/shopping type situation is what the inventor of the indoor mall originally had in mind. In any case, I think it's a great idea for reusing the structure.

Are you referring to 12 Oaks Mall? or a different place?

[JBMcB]

Are you referring to 12 Oaks Mall? or a different place?

Lakeside. I was responding to an poster above but forgot to add the comment as a quote. 12 Oaks is doing fine. I go there for lunch sometimes and, even with school still in, there's plenty of foot traffic.

[archfan]

I think there are a bunch of tentative plans on the table for Lakeside, including converting a portion to a senior living development, which there already quite a few of in the area. Ironically, a mixed-use living/shopping type situation is what the inventor of the indoor mall originally had in mind. In any case, I think it's a great idea for reusing the structure.

I guess that would be convenient for mall walkers. If they had grocery, drug store, dry cleaners, etc. it would be self contained living.

[Detroit500]

Twelve Oaks is going to be just fine, but that area in general is overretailed. Look at Fountain Walk, West Oaks, and Twelve Oaks, they can’t fill everything in that area.

Sears now has left, which will be a tough location to fill, though I’d rather be filling it there than somewhere like say, Lakeside. They will likely work to demolish the space. I suppose it’s possible Von Maur may wish to leave their Laurel Park Place location and relocate to Twelve Oaks, although they probably have less competition in that part of town where they are.

If Lord & Taylor survives as a national chain, the Twelve Oaks location will continue for sometime. It used to be their 4th most profitable location in the entire country a salesman shared with me. The demographics are almost strong enough that I could almost imagine Saks Fifth Avenue taking over the space, albeit offering less high-end merchandise than the Troy location.

I think Somerset will continue to flourish, and Twelve Oaks has the second-longest lease on life in the area. Lakeside will be gone soon.

[Onthe405]

Also, Twelve Oaks is the dominant westside retail center, while Partridge Creek is the dominant eastside retail center.

Looks like Lakeside is going to be the next dead mall while Partridge Creek is still thriving as long they have a theatre to assist.

Lakeside is dying because of nearby, much nicer Partridge Creek, not because Macomb residents stopped shopping at malls.

Mmm, not quite sure about that. Following Carson's, looks like Nordstrom will be the second anchor to close at Partridge Creek. That's a major blow. When property managers are courting pop-up Halloween stores to replace a Nordstrom, it's obvious the balance has already tipped . . and not in the positive direction.

IMO, the idea of a "luxury" retail centre anywhere in Macomb County was ill-conceived in the first place. I'm surprised Partridge Creek has lasted this long.

https://www.freep.com/story/money/bu...cy/1575579001/

[Danny]

Blame Amazon for Norstrom's closure at Partridge Creek.

[Meddle]

Blame Amazon

Say no more.

[Zacha341]

^^^ Even eBay has a slight impact. There are some retail clothing stores that sale thru that portal too....

[Maof]

Blame Amazon for Norstrom's closure at Partridge Creek.

True but in Nordstrom's case, they have free shipping and returns and they price match.

[NSortzi]

Looks like Lakeside is going to be the next dead mall while Partridge Creek is still thriving as long they have a theatre to assist.

Agreed. Lakeside’s as dead as Northland was in the year or so before closing. Shouldn’t be long.

[mtburb]

Mmm, not quite sure about that. Following Carson's, looks like Nordstrom will be the second anchor to close at Partridge Creek. That's a major blow. When property managers are courting pop-up Halloween stores to replace a Nordstrom, it's obvious the balance has already tipped . . and not in the positive direction.

IMO, the idea of a "luxury" retail centre anywhere in Macomb County was ill-conceived in the first place. I'm surprised Partridge Creek has lasted this long.

https://www.freep.com/story/money/bu...cy/1575579001/

If MJR decided to close their Partridge Creek location as well - that mall's done.

[Maof]

Agreed. Lakeside’s as dead as Northland was in the year or so before closing. Shouldn’t be long.

I never did like Lakeside. It's a ghost town there now. Only stores i go to would be Macy's or Penny's.

[mtburb]

Lord & Taylor may become the second anchor vacancy at Twelve Oaks once the mall reopens. Apparently COVID did them in.

https://www.retaildive.com/news/lord...uidate/577468/

[313WX]

Lord & Taylor may become the second anchor vacancy at Twelve Oaks once the mall reopens. Apparently COVID did them in.

https://www.retaildive.com/news/lord...uidate/577468/

If I'm not mistaken, that's the only location outside the East Coast.

[401don]

If I'm not mistaken, that's the only location outside the East Coast.

There is [[was) a couple in the Chicago area.

[Onthe405]

L+T and Neiman-Marcus are finished. Less than 9 months after Nordstrom vacated, Partridge Creek owner is defaulting on its loan:

https://www.macombdaily.com/news/loc...58acf0a36.html

[Maof]

L+T and Neiman-Marcus are finished. Less than 9 months after Nordstrom vacated, Partridge Creek owner is defaulting on its loan:

https://www.macombdaily.com/news/loc...58acf0a36.html

This is too bad. I like this Partridge. Guess the writing was on the wall when Carson's left and Nordstrom last year.

[iheartthed]

L+T and Neiman-Marcus are finished. Less than 9 months after Nordstrom vacated, Partridge Creek owner is defaulting on its loan:

https://www.macombdaily.com/news/loc...58acf0a36.html

Partridge Creek seemed like a bad idea from the moment it opened.

[PJSzerszen]

The "retail apocalypse" has accelerated and I'm wondering if Twelve Oaks will still be so immune and be able to pull out of it now. Certainly Novi overall is looking really overdone to me for this new era and I imagine it won't just affect the mall proper. It was right to think even a year ago that Twelve Oaks had a long life to go but now Lord & Taylor is liquidating and JCPenney [[as of this writing) is almost certainly doing so as well [[their highest bid was from the parent company of Belk who planned to bolster their store count by converting southern stores in their territory and closing the rest), but the creditors came back seeking a higher bid and they can force them into total liquidation if they don't get a better offer).

So that leaves Macy's and Nordstrom and a heck of a long walk between the two that's surely going to be looking more barren. Going from Macy's to Nordstrom, you'll literally look left and see [[former) Sears, turn right then look left and see [[former) JCPenney, then pass by [[former) Lord & Taylor. Macy's situation isn't exactly great either and even Nordstrom has closed stores. I've not been to Twelve Oaks since it reopened but I'd like to see what the vacancy rate is like today so I may try to swing by this week while I'm in town.

What do they do? Especially since Taubman has no ownership in the anchor stores there, they are legally their own buildings/lots. ESL still owns the Sears parcel to this day. Couple that with more inline tenants going bust and the merger with Simon going to heck, can Taubman come up with the capital to completely reconfigure Twelve Oaks if necessary? Or how can they keep that building productive? The last I read there was a large [[$300M) mortgage on it from 2 years ago too that they used to pay down old debt and I believe that's a chunk of change even to a company the size of Taubman and they may not be bringing in the rent rolls that were forecast in the past, I imagine.

How many malls have recovered from losing 3 anchors? Is U-Haul and Indoor Go-Karts coming to Twelve Oaks next?

Seriously though, what are peoples' thoughts on this. Would being down 3 of 5 anchors [[when Sears has sat 1.5 years) be a big deal there? Could it just partition over the entrances and carry on with niche/specialty retailers? Or is this going to be a problem with no real good solution? Are there even enough physical retailers to fill 200 inline spaces, even if they are unique to the market? I'm really asking.

Unless there's some other deal that's not on public record, Taubman is going to have to buy out Sears, Penneys and Lord & Taylor if they ever want to reconfigure the mall. Legally, the "mall" is sandwiched between these other owners. It was a clever thing in the 70s for legal and financial reasons but it has resulted in some interesting issues with reconfiguration of other malls of that time:


How do you see things going for Twelve Oaks, Novi, and Taubman in general, especially if the court affirms Simon's right to pull out?

Is a [[worst-case) scenario even plausible there, where vacancies pile up, Taubman walks away and gives it to the lenders [[or has other issues), then the lender wants nothing to do with it so they just write it off and let it sit because you can't even give away an empty mall. If it's even plausible, I think it's smart for Novi to start thinking about contingency plans if they haven't already. Summit Place did better than Twelve Oaks for a time in the early-90s and just 10 years later it was pretty much history. Things can change really quickly in recessions and pandemics.