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  1. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by 313WX View Post
    Oh really?
    Yes, really. Not my fault if you refuse to read and/or choose to lie.

    Quote Originally Posted by 313WX View Post
    Typical Hillary supporter, always gaslighting others.
    You can scream "But Hillary/Obama/Julius Caesar/whomever Russia tells you to pick for obfuscation" until the end of time.

    Doesn't change the fact that you got conned by a lying, racist, Russian stooge lifelong scam artist who preys upon the dumbest and most ignorant, and who is on an express track to federal prison.

    If screaming about retired, irrelevent politicians makes you feel better about your criminal cult leader, have at it. The rest of us are enjoying watching his demise, the mass indictments of his co-consiprators, and the evisceration of the radical wing of the Republican party for the next 30 years.
    Last edited by Bham1982; April-12-18 at 06:56 AM.

  2. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by BankruptcyGuy View Post
    The author (and a poster) mentioned that local zoning has an impact. It has an ENORMOUS impact--tough to overstate it. Municipalities want higher-end product. Failing that, they want senior-targeted product. So they will limit density and increase lot sizes to decrease the amount of available homes. That increases the price points. Tough to explain that to local politicians regardless of business acumen.
    This. I'm not aware of any high growth community that doesn't encourage the growth of higher-end, larger-lot development. Coupled with higher land costs, there is no economic or policy rationale for new construction starter homes.

    In the mature communities, infill housing has to be expensive, because land costs are so high. On the fringe, communities incentive larger homes on larger lots. So there is basically no new construction starter market, whether in Royal Oak or Lyon Township.

    There are tons of starter homes in Metro Detroit, though, even in nice communities with good school districts. You just have to buy an older, smaller home.

    And Senior housing is an increasing share of product. If you go out to sprawlsville places like Lyon Twp. and Oakland Twp. you will see lots of 500k+ luxury ranch type developments. Empty nesters are a big share of buyers for outfits like Toll Brothers (a national high end builder), because they're typically the ones with the most money.
    Last edited by Bham1982; April-12-18 at 07:05 AM.

  3. #53

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bham1982 View Post
    ..........
    So Bham1982 continuing to derail the thread it is!

  4. #54

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bham1982 View Post
    The U.S. has a massive shortage of skilled tradesmen...
    Quote Originally Posted by 313WX View Post
    I'm not sure why people keep peddling this myth of a so-called labor shortage in construction, unless they're for-profit business owners or bought-and-paid-for by big monied interest (thus, they have an ulterior motive).

    https://www.economy.com/dismal/analy...rker-Shortage/
    Quote Originally Posted by Bham1982 View Post
    My "thimble-full" knowledge of RE has made my family quite comfortable. Imagine if I knew something about the field!
    And there it is! The truth finally comes out behind the reason for the false propaganda about the so-called construction labor shortage.

  5. #55

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    Bham: If your family is quite "comfortable" (what does that really mean?) it's because you won the sperm lottery and are a trust fund baby. Your claimed knowledge of real estate, housing, finance sure had nothing to do with it.

    What you seem to be saying (maybe it's just my perception) without clearly articulating it, is that politics, on all levels, has an impact on housing. If so, that's true. The federal government through HUD and various kinds of tax credits and other policies has a major impact. States have a huge impact as well through agencies such as MSHDA and their tax policies. And finally, local government, even though not as monetarily involved in housing, may have the most impact through it's zoning, planning and other land use policies.

    Detroit is one of the worst; it's policies are misguided in most respects. Its ordinances, although sometimes meritorious, are frequently overreaching and unconstitutional (e.g. it recent attempted over regulation of rental units.)

    My guess that on this forum every political viewpoint is represented - Democrats, Republicans, Independents, Libertarians, anarchists and probably others. Their posts, where politics is involved, are in my opinion well reasoned. Policies tend to be discussed, not ad hominum attacks you rely on.

    You clearly are obsessed with and wallow in a radical left wing ideology, and that's fine, except you never assert issues; you just mindlessly attack. You're the kind of person who takes a knife to a gunfight.

    There must be several/many people on this thread who are unhappy with the president, Congress, etc. However, do you see many (any?) posters supporting their views with anything like your vitriol.

    By the way, you're not clever either.

  6. #56

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    Quote Originally Posted by oladub View Post
    A temporary shortage of labor incentivizes more job training, boosts wages because of supply and demand, and helps prevent the economy from overheating. Some working Americans are finally gaining a larger share of the economic pie.
    How exactly is the labor shortage "temporary?" Just where are all these new workers going to come from to end the shortage?

    Even with low unemployment, wage growth has been lackluster. We're only just now seeing any significant wage growth (2.9%) and even then that's only significant compared to the Great Recession years. It's actually pretty mediocre if you compare it to the years immediately preceding the Great Recession, where wage growth would commonly exceed 3% annually even with higher unemployment rates.

    https://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/wage...r.aspx?panel=1

    It's even more mediocre if you take into consideration that real wage growth is just BARELY outpacing the Consumer Price Index.

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/416...e-2_36-percent

    So basically, Americans are making 2.9% more in wages compared to last year, but the price of the stuff we buy went up 2.4% during the same time period.

    And one more thing, the rise in wages was due at least in part to the fact that 18 states increased their minimum wage starting in 2018, so it's not entirely dependent on mere supply-and-demand for labor.
    Last edited by aj3647; April-12-18 at 10:55 AM.

  7. #57

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    And Senior housing is an increasing share of product. If you go out to sprawlsville places like Lyon Twp. and Oakland Twp. you will see lots of 500k+ luxury ranch type developments. Empty nesters are a big share of buyers for outfits like Toll Brothers (a national high end builder), because they're typically the ones with the most money.And Senior housing is an increasing share of product. If you go out to sprawlsville places like Lyon Twp. and Oakland Twp. you will see lots of 500k+ luxury ranch type developments. Empty nesters are a big share of buyers for outfits like Toll Brothers (a national high end builder), because they're typically the ones with the most money.



    I'm afraid I'd have to disagree with the notion empty nesters have the most money. The lucky ones do, some don't. There are plenty of them for one reason or another, having a tough time, especially if they have health issues. Healthcare takes a big chunk of income for empty nesters and retirees.

  8. #58

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    Quote Originally Posted by Cincinnati_Kid View Post



    I'm afraid I'd have to disagree with the notion empty nesters have the most money. The lucky ones do, some don't. There are plenty of them for one reason or another, having a tough time, especially if they have health issues. Healthcare takes a big chunk of income for empty nesters and retirees.
    I suppose health care costs are a completely different topic, but I couldn't agree more with the above.

  9. #59

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    What I see in Fla retirees and empty nesters that are doing well are the ones that sold real estate that was in high markets and bought cheaper down here,subdivisions going in everywhere,but the majority are pension recipients that are squeaking on by comfortable but not wealthy by any means.

    That goes back to the tax thing though,now is the time where people like myself could take advantage of that migration and cash out and reverse migration comfortably.

    But with the currant tax structure such as it is kinda removes the gains.

  10. #60

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    Quote Originally Posted by Richard View Post
    But with the currant tax structure such as it is kinda removes the gains.
    FFS it’s spelled “current” #dpsgrad

  11. #61

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    Ladies and Gentlemen of this thread. Would you kindly avoid personal attacks, politics, and name-calling and discuss the the topic at hand with facts and reasoned opinions.

    You are all veteran members and know this has gone over the civility line.

    Thank you.

  12. #62

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    Guilty, as my comments could be construed as such. Sorry. Won't happen again.

  13. #63

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    Quote Originally Posted by emu steve View Post
    Very nice article which describes a real problem in S.E. MI, MI, and the nation.
    I'm a licensed builder, though not a developer, and I do a lot of new construction framing of McMansions, luxury apartments and luxury condos.

    Here's my perspective.

    Part 1) Right now, in Wyandotte, you can buy a city owned lot for $10K but the city will finance it with deferred payments for 10 years. After 10 years, if it's been owner-occupied, the debt is forgiven. That's free land if you build and live there.

    In Detroit and Pontiac, you can buy lots for next to nothing.

    Habitat for Humanity builds nice houses cheap, and they will give you the plans for your own house.

    There is absolutely nothing stopping anyone from building their own house and for cheap.

    Part 2) The developers that are maligned in this article are not building these houses on spec. (Spec = speculation. They're not building them hoping that someone will buy.) A buyer initiates the process, just like you and anyone else can do in any city in or around Detroit.

    The only difference between those McMansion neighborhoods and yours is that the developer lays the infrastructure while yours is already in place.

    If you want to build a starter home in Detroit, and you've got the money, please, please, please call me. Otherwise, I'll be working in the northern suburbs because that's where relatively free people are spending their construction money.

    Part 3) The 3 McMansions that I've framed in the last year were all run by a builder working on "Plus cost" terms, meaning that he was paid a percent of the overall cost to supervise the project. The owner purchased the lot on their own. They hired the architect on their own. And, they were dealing face to face with every trade on their own.

    You can too.

    Finally, from the perspective of a tradesman and licensed builder, this article is stupid. Please remember that these reporters are just glorified gossips. Fake news isn't new; it's always been the norm. These are losers that don't want to work; losers whose highest aspiration is making a dime by playing that kids' game telephone. And, based on my experience with a Free Press columnist about 10 years ago, I'd venture that that organization is heavily vested in demoralizing you. Beware.

    Yours truly,
    Adam

  14. #64

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    Quote Originally Posted by Adam View Post
    I'm a licensed builder, though not a developer, and I do a lot of new construction framing of McMansions, luxury apartments and luxury condos.

    Here's my perspective.

    Part 1) Right now, in Wyandotte, you can buy a city owned lot for $10K but the city will finance it with deferred payments for 10 years. After 10 years, if it's been owner-occupied, the debt is forgiven. That's free land if you build and live there.

    In Detroit and Pontiac, you can buy lots for next to nothing.

    Habitat for Humanity builds nice houses cheap, and they will give you the plans for your own house.

    There is absolutely nothing stopping anyone from building their own house and for cheap.

    Part 2) The developers that are maligned in this article are not building these houses on spec. (Spec = speculation. They're not building them hoping that someone will buy.) A buyer initiates the process, just like you and anyone else can do in any city in or around Detroit.

    The only difference between those McMansion neighborhoods and yours is that the developer lays the infrastructure while yours is already in place.

    If you want to build a starter home in Detroit, and you've got the money, please, please, please call me. Otherwise, I'll be working in the northern suburbs because that's where relatively free people are spending their construction money.

    Part 3) The 3 McMansions that I've framed in the last year were all run by a builder working on "Plus cost" terms, meaning that he was paid a percent of the overall cost to supervise the project. The owner purchased the lot on their own. They hired the architect on their own. And, they were dealing face to face with every trade on their own.

    You can too.

    Finally, from the perspective of a tradesman and licensed builder, this article is stupid. Please remember that these reporters are just glorified gossips. Fake news isn't new; it's always been the norm. These are losers that don't want to work; losers whose highest aspiration is making a dime by playing that kids' game telephone. And, based on my experience with a Free Press columnist about 10 years ago, I'd venture that that organization is heavily vested in demoralizing you. Beware.

    Yours truly,
    Adam
    Thanks for your perspective Adam. We appreciate your insider knowledge. I do have one question that is tangential to this thread's topic - is there really a skilled trades labor shortage in Southeastern Michigan? Thanks

  15. #65

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    Quote Originally Posted by Adam View Post
    ...There is absolutely nothing stopping anyone from building their own house and for cheap....
    I always wondered what it would take to do that. I just assumed the entrenched industry had made it impossible with red tape. Does anyone build their own house anymore? Imagine the pride.

  16. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jimaz View Post
    I always wondered what it would take to do that. I just assumed the entrenched industry had made it impossible with red tape. Does anyone build their own house anymore? Imagine the pride.
    You mean by hand or by hiring a builder?

    There are lots of builders who specialize in custom, one-off homes. Many are built spec, but most are built for a client. I live in one.

    I think it would be pretty difficult for 99% of people to actually build their own home. Not just the labor, time and skilled trades challenges, but navigating the bureaucracy.

  17. #67

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    Quote Originally Posted by masterblaster View Post
    Thanks for your perspective Adam. We appreciate your insider knowledge. I do have one question that is tangential to this thread's topic - is there really a skilled trades labor shortage in Southeastern Michigan? Thanks
    My pleasure. I had bookmarked this forum a year or more ago, was going through my bookmarks and checked out the forum again. I read that article and this thread and was champing at the bit to "send a nasty letter."

    I don't think there's a labor shortage. As someone else noted, there's a pay shortage.

    I've got a few ideas about what has caused it, but the builders license scheme in Michigan is probably a contributor. It's a horrible system that is under attack by the Mackinac Center but no one on the Left, though it hurts poor people more than anyone.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jimaz View Post
    I always wondered what it would take to do that. I just assumed the entrenched industry had made it impossible with red tape. Does anyone build their own house anymore? Imagine the pride.
    I bid a framing job for a guy who was supervising his own house build about 6 months ago, but I haven't met anyone that's framed themselves in 20yrs. Honestly, the process is so fast that it just wouldn't be worth it to do yourself unless you had lots of free time and weren't paying a mortgage, rent, etc. on your current residence.

    Locally, however, you've got the inspectors to deal with. In my experience, the farther south you go, the more hassle you'll get from inspectors. For some reason, the smaller the community, the more questionable their calls.

    Trenton had an independent mechanical inspector who covered a number of jurisdictions. I helped a buddy do a job there, and he was the worst inspector that I've dealt with. I've never been farther south, nor have I returned to work in Trenton. lol.

    If you were trying to build in a community that he served, and you were going to do your own vent work, I'd say look for a different community. My experience has been that inspectors here want us here. They'll communicate issues; constructively negotiate. I've had one stop me from working to fix something that would have shut down the site had he wanted to stop work. I think that mechanical guy in Trenton would have shut down an entire site for something petty while this inspector worked with us for the good of the community.

    ETA: That Wyandotte lot deal has been keeping me up at night. The nominal prices of the lots ($10K) are high, but the fact that the community is trying to make a deal suggests to me that you'd get plenty of help along the way if you wanted to build. I think that if you wanted to build yourself (as in contract the trades and supervise), that would be the place to do it right now.
    Last edited by Adam; April-23-18 at 01:47 PM. Reason: Learing to spel

  18. #68

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    Quote Originally Posted by Adam View Post
    I've got a few ideas about what has caused it, but the builders license scheme in Michigan is probably a contributor. It's a horrible system that is under attack by the Mackinac Center but no one on the Left, though it hurts poor people more than anyone.
    I've never heard of controversy around builders licenses - not surprising, not my field. Any links or background?

  19. #69

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    Quote Originally Posted by archfan View Post
    I've never heard of controversy around builders licenses - not surprising, not my field. Any links or background?
    Occupational licensing in general is under attack. It's usually a gimmick supported by established members of an industry. Money talks.

    My experience with the builders license process is that I feel like I was raped. I don't say that lightly.

    They've got a system in place where just to survive legally, I needed the license. I couldn't pull permits or do any jobs worth over $600, which is nothing.

    The first really troubling issue was that I had to learn a new way of speaking, the State way. And, not that I had to learn how to say "triple header" or the like, I had to learn the state sanctioned way of asking/answering their questions. My way of constructing sentences had to be "corrected" essentially.

    Then, I had to learn another way of speaking because the idiot running the state sanctioned "school" communicated like, well, an idiot.

    The language stuff was difficult because words represent thoughts. When controls are imposed on your language, it's a control on thought. In this case, I was forced to allow my language and thinking to conform to unintelligent people, which is psychologically painful. It's a psychological rape-- In this case, our mind is penetrated by others.

    Ultimately, I had to sort of "make myself stupid" to understand them. It's sort of like I had to "blank out" and just sort of let the meaning of their words "flow" to me? I can't explain it exactly, but it was horrible.

    The breadth of the information was ludicrous, maybe 75% of all study material was irrelevant, but there's no telling what's going to be on the test, so I had to retain it.

    Speaking of what might be on the test, it's all state sanctioned facts. My grievance that ties for first with the "school" requirement is that these state sanctioned facts aren't publicized. If the pool of test questions is drawn from 1000 facts, why not publicize those facts? If 2000, why not? Rather than just publishing all the facts in a user-friendly fashion, the state advises that you read 1,000s and 1,000s of pages (which I did).

    The only rational conclusion that I can come to on their motive is that there is a conspiracy to oppress those who don't think like they do. I am a focused thinker, but they're different.

    Anyway. . .

    Interesting, short read: http://www.michigancapitolconfidenti...-makeup-artist

    Thorough investigation: https://www.mackinac.org/archives/2017/s2017-02.pdf

    From Obama's Council of Economic Advisers:

    "While quality can be defined in many ways and is often difficult to measure, the evidence onlicensingÂ’s effects on prices is unequivocal: many studies find that more restrictive licensing laws lead to higher prices for consumers."

    "While credibly estimating employment effects is difficult given available data, there is some evidence indicating that licensing directly restricts the supply of workers in licensed professions."

    "As described in Section I, the effect of restricting entry to licensed occupations has proved easier to study in terms of wages: restrictions are expected to raise the wages of those who manage to enter licensed occupations, and lower the wages of other workers, leading to a wage gap."

    Very thorough: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov...nonembargo.pdf
    Last edited by Adam; April-25-18 at 07:27 PM. Reason: Cooled off.

  20. #70

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    Quote Originally Posted by Adam View Post
    Occupational licensing in general is under attack. It's usually a gimmick supported by established members of an industry. Money talks.

    My experience with the builders license process is that I feel like I was raped. I don't say that lightly.

    They've got a system in place where just to survive legally, I needed the license. I couldn't pull permits or do any jobs worth over $600, which is nothing.

    The first really troubling issue was that I had to learn a new way of speaking, the State way. And, not that I had to learn how to say "triple header" or the like, I had to learn the state sanctioned way of asking/answering their questions. My way of constructing sentences had to be "corrected" essentially.

    Then, I had to learn another way of speaking because the idiot running the state sanctioned "school" communicated like, well, an idiot.

    The language stuff was difficult because words represent thoughts. When controls are imposed on your language, it's a control on thought. In this case, I was forced to allow my language and thinking to conform to unintelligent people, which is psychologically painful. It's a psychological rape-- In this case, our mind is penetrated by others.

    Ultimately, I had to sort of "make myself stupid" to understand them. It's sort of like I had to "blank out" and just sort of let the meaning of their words "flow" to me? I can't explain it exactly, but it was horrible.

    The breadth of the information was ludicrous, maybe 75% of all study material was irrelevant, but there's no telling what's going to be on the test, so I had to retain it.

    Speaking of what might be on the test, it's all state sanctioned facts. My grievance that ties for first with the "school" requirement is that these state sanctioned facts aren't publicized. If the pool of test questions is drawn from 1000 facts, why not publicize those facts? If 2000, why not? Rather than just publishing all the facts in a user-friendly fashion, the state advises that you read 1,000s and 1,000s of pages (which I did).

    The only rational conclusion that I can come to on their motive is that there is a conspiracy to oppress those who don't think like they do. I am a focused thinker, but they're different.

    Anyway. . .

    Interesting, short read: http://www.michigancapitolconfidenti...-makeup-artist

    Thorough investigation: https://www.mackinac.org/archives/2017/s2017-02.pdf

    From Obama's Council of Economic Advisers:

    "While quality can be defined in many ways and is often difficult to measure, the evidence onlicensingÂ’s effects on prices is unequivocal: many studies find that more restrictive licensing laws lead to higher prices for consumers."

    "While credibly estimating employment effects is difficult given available data, there is some evidence indicating that licensing directly restricts the supply of workers in licensed professions."

    "As described in Section I, the effect of restricting entry to licensed occupations has proved easier to study in terms of wages: restrictions are expected to raise the wages of those who manage to enter licensed occupations, and lower the wages of other workers, leading to a wage gap."

    Very thorough: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov...nonembargo.pdf
    Excellent post. Welcome to the board Adam.

    Your experience sums up Michigan well.

    We seem far more concerned about preserving the status quo than creating real economic growth like the rest of the country.

  21. #71

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    I was watching a program the other day and the lack of affordable urban start up homes is reversing the shift of movement to the city's.

    There are HUD programs that offer no down payment,lesser qualifications for loan approvals,grants and heavy incentives to build in rural ereas,which is leaving a large segment with that as their only option.

  22. #72
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    Some times data is about as exciting as watching grass grow or maybe contemplating eating old pizza, but these data tell the story of Detroit:

    "Last year only 27 permits to were issued to build single-family homes in the 139 square miles of the city. Meanwhile 3,200 houses were demolished, according the Southeast Michigan Conference of Governments."

    "Last year, 91 percent of the building permits issued for Detroit housing were for apartments, 6 percent were for condominiums, and 3 percent were for single family homes, SEMCOG reports."

    These data are most likely very reliable as they are collected from the office which issues permits to build or demolish. These are enumerations (counts), not survey data.

    P.S. remember apartments refers to a structural type (multi-family) while condominiums refers to OWNERSHIP type, not structural type. Condos can be apartments, town homes, etc.

    I assume the town homes or carriage houses at City Modern are condo ownership.

    https://www.detroitnews.com/story/bu...oods/34780973/
    Last edited by emu steve; May-11-18 at 05:36 AM.

  23. #73

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    I'm in the process of selling a home that I was renting out in Warren. It's south of 10 Mile between Ryan and Mound.

    We put it up for sale a week ago and within 24 hours we had eight offers, many above asking, on the ~1,150 square foot ranch home. The highest offer was 8.5% above asking.
    Last edited by 48307; May-11-18 at 08:11 AM.

  24. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by 48307 View Post
    I'm in the process of selling a home that I was renting out in Warren. It's south of 10 Mile between Ryan and Mound.

    We put it up for sale a week ago and within 24 hours we had eight offers, many above asking, on the ~1,150 square foot ranch home. The highest offer was 8.5% above asking.
    Yep. I wish builders would attempt to build more affordable single family homes so that the supply in all price levels was sufficient to meet demand.

    In our economic system, we need to get public policy and private enterprise to come up with solutions to the affordable housing crisis in this country.

    Bidding up the price of single family homes only serves one stakeholder: the seller (okay, those in real estate too get a bigger commission).
    Last edited by emu steve; May-11-18 at 09:41 AM.

  25. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by emu steve View Post
    Yep. I wish builders would attempt to build more affordable single family homes so that the supply in all price levels was sufficient to meet demand.
    They won't do so, because they can't make money on such structures.

    You cannot make money on a new construction 1,100 sq. ft. ranch in Warren these days. The construction costs are higher than the sales costs.

    Quote Originally Posted by emu steve View Post
    In our economic system, we need to get public policy and private enterprise to come up with solutions to the affordable housing crisis in this country.
    What "affordable housing crisis"? The U.S. probably has the cheapest housing in the developed world relative to incomes.

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