Detroit on track for lowest homocides in over 50 years

**SammyS** · December-29-17, 04:43 PM

"As 2017 draws to a close, the city is on pace to record sharp decreases in most violent and nonviolent crime categories, including the fewest criminal homicides since 1966, Detroit police officials say."

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/new...ers/108987616/

**subterranean** · December-30-17, 02:15 AM

But twice per capita?

**renf** · December-30-17, 09:15 AM

There were about 6 homicides per 100,000 in the city of Detroit from the end of prohibition until well after the Second World War. In 1950 when the census counted almost two million residents in the city, there were 113 homicides for as rate of 6 per 100,000. The homicide rate began to rise in the late 1960s and peaked at 63 per 100,000 in 1987 when 686 were killed. The rate has more or less slowly declined since then. The 2017 rate will be about 39 per 100,000 if 270 are killed.
Much has been accomplished in Detroit with regard to reducing the homicide rate but the city still has an exceptionally high rate. In New York city this year, the rate will be about 4 per 100,000- just one-tenth of the rate here. Border cities in the US tend to have very low homicide rates. El Paso is similar to Detroit in many ways but a bit larger. The homicide rate in El Paso this year will be about 2 per 100,00. Detroit is the only border city with a high homicide rate.
Does anyone know why the homicide rates in cities including New York, El Paso and San Diego are so very much lower than the slowly declining rate in Detroit?

**401don** · December-30-17, 10:48 AM

Originally Posted by renf

Does anyone know why the homicide rates in cities including New York, El Paso and San Diego are so very much lower than the slowly declining rate in Detroit?

You're kidding, right?

**rex** · January-08-18, 12:03 AM

encouraging news.
Is 2018 off to a bad start or am imagining things?

**Cincinnati_Kid** · January-08-18, 01:39 AM

What about Chicago? I heard they were close to setting a record for homicides in 2017, with over 650.

**detroitsgwenivere** · January-08-18, 09:43 AM

Not everyone is jumping on the "Detroit murders are lower than 1966" bandwagon:

http://www.deadlinedetroit.com/artic...t#.WlOAsGZy6hd

**iheartthed** · January-08-18, 10:25 AM

Originally Posted by detroitsgwenivere

Not everyone is jumping on the "Detroit murders are lower than 1966" bandwagon:

http://www.deadlinedetroit.com/artic...t#.WlOAsGZy6hd

I doubt Detroit is doing anything that the other cities are not doing. You could argue that Detroit's rate may have been inflated in past years because the city has been counting situations as homicides that other major cities have not.

And I don't think Chicago even reports their stats to the FBI. Or at least they have gone years without doing so.

Finally, the actual rate is still very high. This is just a nice PR spin to point out that the absolute number is low.

**Wesley Mouch** · January-08-18, 11:02 AM

Originally Posted by renf

T...snip...
Detroit is the only border city with a high homicide rate.
Does anyone know why the homicide rates in cities including New York, El Paso and San Diego are so very much lower than the slowly declining rate in Detroit?

NY, EP, and SD are not peer cities. NY has neighborhoods that might be peers, but when you add up all the diverse things that are NYC, its murder rate is meaningless. You might want to compare NYC to Detroit's SMSA -- and maybe that'd have some relevance.

EP & SD are border towns, yes. SD yes, but not really. But they are smaller than Detroit, and have entirely different social pathologies driving their crime.

Detroit's peer cities here are rust-belt towns. Cleveland, St. Louis, Buffalo, Milwaukee. You might even want to look at smaller decaying industrial powerhouses such as Gary or Youngstown [[OH). Those peers may point you to something.

Its a great question. What made Detroit fail? Its the subject of another thread, 'Root Causes...'. Detroit seems to have failed more thoroughly than any other American city. Border town effect? Probably small here. But a great question. Why Detroit? Why so bad? What is it about Detroit that made its failure worse than Clevelands -- although they failed pretty well too. How does their murder rate track to Detroit?

**Zacha341** · January-08-18, 08:37 PM

Yeah, we've been packing a wallop of crime recently all thru the 'dead-of-winter' cold temps be darned to slow it down!

Originally Posted by detroitsgwenivere

Not everyone is jumping on the "Detroit murders are lower than 1966" bandwagon:

http://www.deadlinedetroit.com/artic...t#.WlOAsGZy6hd

**Zacha341** · January-08-18, 08:38 PM

Nope, sadly you're not. Crime has been incredible the last two weeks+ ending 2017, entering 2018... up thru this weekends multiple shootings, including the disturbed person wielding the knife, one area to another until he was stopped!

The nearby suburbs have been busy with crime as well. It's just nuts!

Originally Posted by rex

encouraging news.
Is 2018 off to a bad start or am imagining things?

**casscorridor** · January-09-18, 04:37 AM

Great that the total number is declining but it's misleading to say "lowest since 1966" because in 1966 Detroit had more than double the population. What is the current murder rate per capita? And how does that compare to cities?

**313WX** · January-09-18, 05:00 AM

Originally Posted by casscorridor

Great that the total number is declining but it's misleading to say "lowest since 1966" because in 1966 Detroit had more than double the population. What is the current murder rate per capita? And how does that compare to cities?

I believe 40 per 100,000 people.

St. Louis and Baltimore are really bad though, with per-capita rates of 65 and 56 per 100,000 people.

**aj3647** · January-09-18, 10:08 AM

Originally Posted by iheartthed

You could argue that Detroit's rate may have been inflated in past years because the city has been counting situations as homicides that other major cities have not.

The opposite of that is true. DPD had a reputation in the past for "juking the stats" by classifying suspicious deaths or outright homicides as "accidental deaths" or "suicides" in order to artificially deflate the homicide statistics.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/bs-mtblo...hom-story.html

**Wesley Mouch** · January-10-18, 02:01 PM

Originally Posted by casscorridor

Great that the total number is declining but it's misleading to say "lowest since 1966" because in 1966 Detroit had more than double the population. What is the current murder rate per capita? And how does that compare to cities?

Everybody creates their own stats to justify their position. [[See UC Berkley study done after Seattle bought a Min Wage study that didn't say what they wanted.)

That anybody is bragging about low murder stats is important enough. I don't need to know that each detail is 200% accurate.

Even a lie is sometimes cause for celebration!

**iheartthed** · January-10-18, 05:15 PM

Originally Posted by aj3647

The opposite of that is true. DPD had a reputation in the past for "juking the stats" by classifying suspicious deaths or outright homicides as "accidental deaths" or "suicides" in order to artificially deflate the homicide statistics.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/bs-mtblo...hom-story.html

The original Detroit News article has disappeared, but I found this: http://abcnews.go.com/US/story?id=7884362

Apparently DPD fudged the numbers a little so that the city would be #2 instead of #1. That was unethical, but I don't know if it was a misrepresentation of the crime situation in Detroit since the change was almost immaterial to the actual rate.

I still maintain that other cities do it as well, which the article corroborates. The FBI largely accepts what the cities tell them at face value. Chicago's numbers are the only ones I've heard of them flat out rejecting due to the way they calculate it.

**getmoore** · January-10-18, 05:33 PM

Originally Posted by iheartthed

The original Detroit News article has disappeared, but I found this: http://abcnews.go.com/US/story?id=7884362

Apparently DPD fudged the numbers a little so that the city would be #2 instead of #1. That was unethical, but I don't know if it was a misrepresentation of the crime situation in Detroit since the change was almost immaterial to the actual rate.

I still maintain that other cities do it as well, which the article corroborates. The FBI largely accepts what the cities tell them at face value. Chicago's numbers are the only ones I've heard of them flat out rejecting due to the way they calculate it.

Just pointing out that this article is from 2009.

**Meddle** · January-10-18, 07:43 PM

Remember that 'homicide' is a classification.

If a State executes a prisoner, that's a homicide. If a police officer kills a gun wielding assailant, that's a homicide. If a homeowner lawfully kills an armed intruder, that's a homicide. Which, if any of those would be included in the numbers?

[[Yes, I said 'a' state since other cities and states have been included.)

**MikeyinBrooklyn** · January-10-18, 10:42 PM

Stats can be debated, and they should be. As should methods of law enforcement, sociological factors leading to/preventing crime, etc. But I think Detroit is quite a bit safer than it was just a few years ago. And like before, where you live specifically in the city is a lot more relevant to your likelihood to be killed than that you live in the city.

**Meddle** · January-11-18, 04:39 AM

If an ailing, infirm, elderly couple decides they've had enough and want to leave together, one may be classified as a suicide and the other a homicide. While technically both are 'crimes', should either be included in in numbers of violent crimes?

**Meddle** · January-11-18, 04:45 AM

By rights, these numbers should be reported factually and not politicized or scrubbed. The total number of deaths classified as Homicide by the Coroner should be counted, along with a second set of numbers for 'legally justified', 'criminal' and 'other' which would include the elderly couple.

**GPCharles** · January-11-18, 09:11 AM

My doctor friends that work the ER at Eastside Gunshop [[St. John's Hospital) would not agree with the violent crime statistics. They tell me that they are busier than they have ever been with gunshot trauma cases.

**Zacha341** · January-11-18, 10:16 AM

^^^ The undertakers are busy as well, though it is said they are more busy during the holidays anyhow.

**Meddle** · January-11-18, 10:58 AM

Originally Posted by GPCharles

My doctor friends that work the ER at Eastside Gunshop [[St. John's Hospital) would not agree with the violent crime statistics. They tell me that they are busier than they have ever been with gunshot trauma cases.

Could that simply be that THEY are getting more cases? Is EMS transporting to fewer facilities?

**rex** · January-16-18, 06:30 PM

im comfortable saying things MAY be going in the right direction with regard to violent crime. There are neighborhoods in the city that will remain warzones for some time and then the bulldozers will come and that will be the end of it. Alot of the progress in crime reduction has to do with the current state of neighborhoods. The very near east side. Chene and Mack used to be highly populated impoverished areas. You can still get shot in the ass over there but its empty fields and blocks with 2 houses. If that area was still densely populated I would expect it to put up pretty bad numbers. There are a lot of areas like this. It takes people to kill people. When the neighborhood is mostly empty well...