2018 Detroit Tigers

**emu steve** · October-03-17, 05:26 AM

Unlike past off seasons, the Tigers have many, many decisions to make going forward including a new manager.

Come later in the Fall, decisions about adding major league talent to a team which was stripped bare and with a farm system designed to deliver in 2019 or 20, not 2018.

Tigers will have the first overall MLB draft pick in June, 2018 [[My guess would be a college player who will be ready in 2020 to go with the many other prospects Tigers hope will be ready by then).

As of today, I think the Tigers are a 50 - 55 win team and that's it.

**Lowell** · October-03-17, 09:56 AM

The Minnesota Twins, going from 100 losses to wild card playoff in one year, show that all things are possible in the wild and woolly world that baseball business has become. And they did it while dumping talent earlier this summer thinking they wouldn't.

What they do have is a great manager with Paul Molitor. I don't know what is available out there for managers with a successful background, like a Jim Leyland or a Terry Francona, but that is the top priority. They have a decent youth corps and a couple of vets who could light it up--Cabrera and Kinsler--but right now, I agree, a year of confusion at the bottom of the AL Central looks likely.

**emu steve** · October-03-17, 11:02 AM

Originally Posted by Lowell

The Minnesota Twins, going from 100 losses to wild card playoff in one year, show that all things are possible in the wild and woolly world that baseball business has become. And they did it while dumping talent earlier this summer thinking they wouldn't.

What they do have is a great manager with Paul Molitor. I don't know what is available out there for managers with a successful background, like a Jim Leyland or a Terry Francona, but that is the top priority. They have a decent youth corps and a couple of vets who could light it up--Cabrera and Kinsler--but right now, I agree, a year of confusion at the bottom of the AL Central looks likely.

Lowell, I'm not sure the Twins are an appropiate comparison.

A better comparison would be the White Sox who had been dumping stars for prospects for a couple seasons and are a very bad team with a very strong farm system.

I think the Twins 2016 season was a fluke and their 2017 season also a fluke.

Twins, IMHO, not as bad as they seemed in 2016 [[they were out of it early and just whatevered for the rest of 2016).

I ASSUME the Tigers are not as bad as they were in September, otherwise, we are looking at 2003 all over again come next year.

All of that said, I'd rather be a White Sox fan than a Tigers' fan. They are further along in their rebuilding and ALSO got better prospects for their trades. We were forced into 'fire sales' for J.D. and J.Up.

**401don** · October-03-17, 11:19 AM

If reports are true, the Tigers big 4 starting prospects [[Faedo, Manning, Burrows, Perez) are legit. So legit, most sites now list them as the Tigers top 4 prospects overall. Hopefully 3 of 4 pan out, one of Norris & Boyd show enough to be a solid 4 or 5 and Fulmer is healthy. There's your 5 man rotation. Thanks to the trades, we now have middle infield prospects. We need 1 or 2 athletic outfielders but that's easier to get on the free agent market than pitching or middle infield. At least in 2018 we can relax and watch with zero expectations, which I much prefer than what occurred this year.

**jackie5275** · October-03-17, 11:24 AM

I do anticipate tickets will be dirt cheap next year once the Opening Day sell out is over.

**emu steve** · October-03-17, 11:38 AM

Originally Posted by 401don

If reports are true, the Tigers big 4 starting prospects [[Faedo, Manning, Burrows, Perez) are legit. So legit, most sites now list them as the Tigers top 4 prospects overall. Hopefully 3 of 4 pan out, one of Norris & Boyd show enough to be a solid 4 or 5 and Fulmer is healthy. There's your 5 man rotation. Thanks to the trades, we now have middle infield prospects. We need 1 or 2 athletic outfielders but that's easier to get on the free agent market than pitching or middle infield. At least in 2018 we can relax and watch with zero expectations, which I much prefer than what occurred this year.

I have been following the Tigers' MiLB system. Yes, we have some good/very good pitching prospects, BUT remember many of them have a few years before they turn say '24'.

I'm not expecting miracles out of a 22 or 23 year old pitcher.

So that means that we are still probably three years away from having a mature pitching staff.

Remember MLB isn't like NBA [[age 19) or NFL [[21 or 22) where players can be significant contributors at a tender young age.

That suggests that our team will 'mature' in 2020 or 21 when our young farm system prospect 'mature' into 23, 24 or 25 year olds.

**401don** · October-03-17, 01:00 PM

Originally Posted by emu steve

I have been following the Tigers' MiLB system. Yes, we have some good/very good pitching prospects, BUT remember many of them have a few years before they turn say '24'.

I'm not expecting miracles out of a 22 or 23 year old pitcher.

So that means that we are still probably three years away from having a mature pitching staff.

Remember MLB isn't like NBA [[age 19) or NFL [[21 or 22) where players can be significant contributors at a tender young age.

That suggests that our team will 'mature' in 2020 or 21 when our young farm system prospect 'mature' into 23, 24 or 25 year olds.

I don't expect miracles either. That doesn't mean they won't be up and pitching well in 2 years. Verlander and Fulmer were both excellent in their rookie years at age 23. Faedo pitched well in the College World Series, Perez is only 19 and already pitching well at AA, and Burrows is considered to need only one more yr. in the minors.

**emu steve** · October-03-17, 04:36 PM

What I think will happen with the Tigers:

1). They started selling off marque players for various reasons and have descended into baseball hell [[September was just plain awful).

2). Next year, unless they go out hard in the FA market, won't win more than say 55 - 59 games.

3). In 2019, with some prospects getting ready and say some FAs, then could improve to say 70 wins.

4). By 2020, hope to finish at or above .500.

Fans love progress. Little like the weather. If it is 10 below and then 10 above, that feels much better. Then 20 above and then 40. and then 50 and folks feel comfortable [[even though 50 isn't exactly warm).

So long as the team can add 10 wins / season starting in 2019, fans will be happy with progress.

So Fulmer, Burrows, etc. just need to show progress toward becoming established MLB pitchers.

**Bong-Man** · October-03-17, 05:06 PM

The 2018 Tigers will go as far as their pitching takes them, which ain't far. You can't be in the rotation if you can't take the ball every 5 days. Neither Boyd nor Norris have proven they can do that. It will be interesting to see which veterans last the winter. I don't see a veteran manager wanting to come here at either end. No reason for the Tigers to pay the money, and no reason for a good candidate to jump on the Titanic. Don't be fooled...The last 7 weeks is who we now are.

**Ray1936** · October-03-17, 05:08 PM

Hey. I'm 81. I get antsy thinking about 2020. That said, as long as the Tigers don't take a knee, I'm behind them all the way, win lose or draw. [[I get the cable baseball package out here in Vegas, so see all the Detroit games. Still love 'em.) So there, just sayin'.

**401don** · October-03-17, 05:58 PM

Originally Posted by emu steve

What I think will happen with the Tigers:

1). They started selling off marque players for various reasons and have descended into baseball hell [[September was just plain awful).

2). Next year, unless they go out hard in the FA market, won't win more than say 55 - 59 games.

3). In 2019, with some prospects getting ready and say some FAs, then could improve to say 70 wins.

4). By 2020, hope to finish at or above .500.

Fans love progress. Little like the weather. If it is 10 below and then 10 above, that feels much better. Then 20 above and then 40. and then 50 and folks feel comfortable [[even though 50 isn't exactly warm).

So long as the team can add 10 wins / season starting in 2019, fans will be happy with progress.

So Fulmer, Burrows, etc. just need to show progress becoming established MLB pitchers.

Fulmer needs to show progress? Baseball doesn't usually work the way you're describing. Swings of 30 or more games in a season in either direction are far more common then a team improving 10 games per season.

**emu steve** · October-04-17, 06:07 AM

This is very close to what I expect to see happening:

http://www.freep.com/story/sports/co...ore/726418001/

BTW, bad choice of words on Fulmer. Needs to return to health.

**Smirnoff** · October-04-17, 07:07 AM

All focus is on Avila.....can he hire the right Mgr to motivate the youth & nurture a winning culture, along with getting-rid of the veteran "comfort" players who just show-up to collect a hefty paycheck?

If $18M/DH VMart returns next year with a WAR of -1.1 .......

**401don** · October-04-17, 09:48 AM

Originally Posted by Smirnoff

All focus is on Avila.....can he hire the right Mgr to motivate the youth & nurture a winning culture, along with getting-rid of the veteran "comfort" players who just show-up to collect a hefty paycheck?

If $18M/DH VMart returns next year with a WAR of -1.1 .......

Just like Zimm, nothing like having a 20 million dollar guy who's most valuable when he's on the DL.

**Bong-Man** · October-15-17, 08:02 AM

A classic throw-back performance by Justin Verlander last night. I'm curious what the Detroit ratings were for that game. Everyone I knew was watching. 8-0 in an Astro's uniform, and it was very rewarding watching the Houston fans reaction to that performance.

The list of former Tigers in the playoffs is/was long and deep....Verlander, Scherzer, Fister, Robbie Ray, Avila, Porcello, Austin Jackson, Justin Wilson, David Price, Andrew Miller, Curtis Granderson, J.D. Martinez. Who was it that decided we could wait on Boyd & Norris to develop, but not Robbie Ray ?

**emu steve** · October-15-17, 02:41 PM

Lot of stories there...

I still can't believe the Fister trade and then giving up on Ray.

MLB GMs surprise the hell out of me. Not much interest in J.D. Martinez. Not too much for J-Up. Took forever for a team to step up and realize that JV is still a stellar pitcher.

Man, if a team is trying to win, move heaven and earth to get bats like J.D. and J-Up and a great SP, Verlander.

Sometimes I think these GMs take common sense run it through a computer program and end up with 'analysis paralysis' and do nothing.

**cassique** · October-15-17, 05:24 PM

Hate to say it but I dumped my season tickets. Split them with two other guys for a full season for the last 15 years. I will miss it but believe that my money will be best used elsewhere. I am certain that there will be decent cheap seats on StubHub for the next couple of seasons.

**emu steve** · October-15-17, 05:53 PM

Originally Posted by cassique

Hate to say it but I dumped my season tickets. Split them with two other guys for a full season for the last 15 years. I will miss it but believe that my money will be best used elsewhere. I am certain that there will be decent cheap seats on StubHub for the next couple of seasons.

No doubt. The idea, is also, to know when to jump back in.

What makes this so hard to predict is that Mr. I and Dombrowski aren't here to run the show. So it is up to Chris I and Avila. They don't have a long track record.

My guess is that Mr. I would get inpatient with losing and get Scott Boras to deliver some talented, expensive players. Don't know what Chris I will do if the team losing 100+ games in 2018.

**sirrealone** · October-16-17, 11:38 AM

I think losing 100+ games in 2018 is to be expected. They have no choice right now but to go full on Cubs/Astros, and both of those teams went through some pretty awful years. Only question is whether the Tigers are able to sniff out the same level of talent that those teams did to eventually turn things around and make the process worth it.

**401don** · October-19-17, 06:33 PM

Gardenhire hired as new mgr. Not that the mgr. makes a huge difference compared to talent, but this just seems like a lazy hire. Why not go with a young Latin American guy. There are several out there with managerial experience.

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/spo...ger/106815120/

**emu steve** · October-19-17, 09:02 PM

I thought it was a great move. Always thought Gardenhire was a great manager.

**Smirnoff** · October-20-17, 06:25 AM

Originally Posted by 401don

Gardenhire hired as new mgr. Not that the mgr. makes a huge difference compared to talent, but this just seems like a lazy hire. Why not go with a young Latin American guy. There are several out there with managerial experience.

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/spo...ger/106815120/

Probably a safe & cheap decision after the Ausmus no/experience-at-all debacle, last experiment was horrific, attendance & TV ratings downfall tell the story of their 64-98 [[.395) season, only 38 games behind........

**Lowell** · October-20-17, 08:58 AM

Originally Posted by 401don

Gardenhire hired as new mgr. Not that the mgr. makes a huge difference compared to talent, but this just seems like a lazy hire. Why not go with a young Latin American guy. There are several out there with managerial experience.

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/spo...ger/106815120/

I like Gardenhire. He always got his teams to play better than they were. At the very least he will be a good place holder until the Tigers become whatever they are going to become.

As for Latinos I like Ozzie Guillén. Not quite young, 53, but experienced and colorful. And the Tigers could use some color to help them through some losing seasons ahead.

**Bong-Man** · October-20-17, 01:29 PM

Good hire, and very surprised he was interested. Just heard him talking on the radio, and he claims to have turned down the Red Sox job. Also said Kaline and Trammel were in the interview and swayed him to the Tigers.

**MikeyinBrooklyn** · October-20-17, 02:46 PM

I like him and am okay with him getting the gig. I was hoping that Gabe Kapler would get the job, if only to keep our Handsome Manager streak going, though. I guess I'll just have to live with a good manager instead.