Believe-it-or-not: 60,000 new residents by 2040?

[casscorridor]

Detroit is expected to add 60,000 residents by 2040, the first time the city’s population will have shown growth since the 1950s, according a study to be released Thursday.

The forecast in a study by the Urban Institute also lists a predicted rise of senior-headed households for southeast Michigan and the continued challenges of homeownership, particular for African-Americans in the area.

The study, called Southeast Michigan Housing Futures, joins the growing number of reports predicting a stabilization of the region’s population and noting that Detroit will finally end its decades-long loss of residents.

“We’re seeing the point where [[the population) is not going to get much lower,” said Mark Treskon, lead author of the study by the Washington, D.C.-based think tank.

Xuan Liu, manager of research and data analysis for the Southeast Michigan Council of Governments, SEMCOG, said the study builds on recent analyses done by SEMCOG, the Michigan Department of Transportation and the University of Michigan. “It is a reflection of both the improvements we’ve seen in the city and the changing demographic trends,” Liu said.

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/new...wth/104031902/

[emu steve]

For someone with an interest in demography, it would be interesting to see population trends and projections for large cities [[say pop > 500K). Detroit may be 'late to the party' as the number of large cities grow, instead of shrink.

In the case of Detroit, the city may grow while the suburbs shed population.

That is part of a growing trend esp. for downtowns. Read an article yesterday about the development in downtown L.A. It is easy for downtowns to grow as builders put up multi-family units buildings, say 250 - 500 units per building as compared to the effort to build a like number of single family homes in the suburbs.

EDIT: Here is a story about what is happening in downtown L.A. Huge building boom.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-f...130-story.html

BTW, a lot of the money there is Chinese, Korean, etc.

[Chicago48]

Detroit is expected to add 60,000 residents by 2040, the first time the city’s population will have shown growth since the 1950s, according a study to be released Thursday.

The forecast in a study by the Urban Institute also lists a predicted rise of senior-headed households for southeast Michigan and the continued challenges of homeownership, particular for African-Americans in the area.

The study, called Southeast Michigan Housing Futures, joins the growing number of reports predicting a stabilization of the region’s population and noting that Detroit will finally end its decades-long loss of residents.

“We’re seeing the point where [[the population) is not going to get much lower,” said Mark Treskon, lead author of the study by the Washington, D.C.-based think tank.

Xuan Liu, manager of research and data analysis for the Southeast Michigan Council of Governments, SEMCOG, said the study builds on recent analyses done by SEMCOG, the Michigan Department of Transportation and the University of Michigan. “It is a reflection of both the improvements we’ve seen in the city and the changing demographic trends,” Liu said.

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/new...wth/104031902/

60K in 20 years is not a lot of people.

[313WX]

60K in 20 years is not a lot of people.

And it's quite the assumption that the city's population won't continue to decline.

[erikd]

And it's quite the assumption that the city's population won't continue to decline.

It is actually quite likely that Detroit will have population growth in 2017.

The population loss in Detroit has slowed dramatically in recent years, and the indicators of growth have started to turn. DTE reported an increase of 3000 residential accounts from March 2016 to March 2017. A recent SEMCOG survey of new residential permits show Detroit leading the region with 1098 new residential permits, followed by Ann Arbor with 545 and Macomb Twp with 516.

[emu steve]

It is actually quite likely that Detroit will have population growth in 2017.

The population loss in Detroit has slowed dramatically in recent years, and the indicators of growth have started to turn. DTE reported an increase of 3000 residential accounts from March 2016 to March 2017. A recent SEMCOG survey of new residential permits show Detroit leading the region with 1098 new residential permits, followed by Ann Arbor with 545 and Macomb Twp with 516.

Agree. And remember it is a lot easier for Gilbert to build towers with hundreds of residential units than for a developer to build a sub-division with hundreds of houses in the 'burbs.

[emu steve]

60K in 20 years is not a lot of people.

Not sure I agree. 60K is almost 10% of Detroit's population so that would make Detroit a fairly fast growing city [[almost 5% per 10 years).

I'd guess Detroit leaders would be happy if they hit 700K in 2040. That would be an average of 1K per year net growth.

[casscorridor]

60K in 20 years is not a lot of people.

Any turn around from the half-century of loss is significant. Also, keep in mind that most of this 60k will be in new housing, most of which I expect to be concentrated in a few areas. Detroit may look very different in 2040.

[emu steve]

Any turn around from the half-century of loss is significant. Also, keep in mind that most of this 60k will be in new housing, most of which I expect to be concentrated in a few areas. Detroit may look very different in 2040.

Agree. One thing that we need to realize is that because of what happened to Detroit in the Great Recession it might be until April 1, 2020 that Detroit REALLY knows what the population is.

As others have noted, any est. for July 1, of 2012, 13, 14, etc. could be way off as there was so much bad happening carrying over from the Great Recession with foreclosures, demolitions, etc. etc.

Current Census estimates might still be too high [[understating what was happening years ago and even after the 2010 Census).

[MikeyinBrooklyn]

I think Detroit's population will be substantially higher than projections. Most of the flee-ers have already fled. There will be both a continued influx to downtown/midtown, often to large residential developments, and also the outlying neighborhoods are [[very slowly) turning a corner. But worthless land and home are gaining value again, making investing in a home and its maintenance no longer foolish. I say Detroit will have 750,000 to 800,000 people in 2030. Predictions beyond that I think are interesting but can't take into account everything that can happen to alter a city or the world over the coming years.

[emu steve]

Mikey,

I wish Census bureau had est for HOUSING UNITS, not population, for big cities each year.

They have estimates for each state and D.C. D.C. is the only city/state where we can see happening year by year in a large city.

I believe new housing units are key. Does it matter if two people live in a 1,250 sq. foot 2-bedroom apt or live in a 2,500 sq. foot single family house?

No longer are all of those big single family homes home to 4, 5 or 6 people. More likely now to host 'empty nesters.' I see the expensive suburban houses with 6 bedrooms, 4 baths which will house 2 or 3 people and I just scratch my head. Why do builders [[other than profit) build those houses which are too big?

[emu steve]

Here is data from the Census bureau's American Community Survey for Detroit showing an increase and then a decline in housing units, but overall little change from 2010 to 2015.

http://www.civicdashboards.com/city/..._housing_units