QLine going public

[Bham1982]

Obviously the Kresge Foundation can blow its money as it chooses, but the idea of paying the streetcar fares for suburban Tigers fans as opposed to, say, subsidizing DDot riders, is absolutely bizarre.

It would be a huge understatement to say we have our regional priorities seriously messed up. The region would be better off if Kresge flushed this money down the toilet.

[emu steve]

Obviously the Kresge Foundation can blow its money as it chooses, but the idea of paying the streetcar fares for suburban Tigers fans as opposed to, say, subsidizing DDot riders, is absolutely bizarre.

It would be a huge understatement to say we have our regional priorities seriously messed up. The region would be better off if Kresge flushed this money down the toilet.

Maybe Tiger fans should be required to have a 'T' [[21st century version of the adulterer's "A") on their foreheads and they be charged say $5 when they board the streetcar? [[This is my Anderson Cooper eye roll).

I guess sports fans are the 21st century... [[fill in the blank with some group of peoples who were discriminated against).

What makes America so neat [[esp. those cities with subways, streetcars, etc.) is that subways/steetcars, etc. are egalitarian.

It doesn't matter if the rider is going to a Tigers' game, work, DIA, WSU, DMC, VAMC, etc. the streetcar doesn't discriminate or give a damn. A rider is a rider. The rider decides if the trip is for a purpose he or she feels is valuable to him/her.

[Hermod]

Latest news. Progress being made and plans to get better. The price is still right: $0.00.

If you read the history of electric trolley lines in the late 19th century and early 20th century, this was a common practice to provide free fares for the first month or six weeks. When they began charging a nickel a ride after the trial period there were often riots which the police had to disperse and caused much ill feeling towards the trolley company. this provided an opening for newspaper crusades and politicians to rail against the eeeeeevullllll companies and why the public didn't oppose the municipal takeovers and the eventual abandonment of trolley lines.

[emu steve]

Obviously the Kresge Foundation can blow its money as it chooses, but the idea of paying the streetcar fares for suburban Tigers fans as opposed to, say, subsidizing DDot riders, is absolutely bizarre.

It would be a huge understatement to say we have our regional priorities seriously messed up. The region would be better off if Kresge flushed this money down the toilet.

Once again, isn't this system completely self-funded [[including operating deficits) by the money from the benefactors?

Isn't the notion that Detroit taxpayers' monies are funding it a red herring?

ProfessorScott: Is it true that no Detroit general fund monies are going to operate the QLine.

[Gsgeorge]

QLine has been listening! Signal priority is starting to be implemented, and now stops will be by request only, so the train is not stopping at empty platforms.

https://qlinedetroit.com/kresge-exte...ugh-labor-day/

Highlights:

TRAFFIC POLICY AND SIGNAL PREEMPTION

QLINE operational policies have been revised to limit unnecessary time in traffic along the route. In addition, M-1 RAIL continues to work with MDOT and the City of Detroit to authorize signal priority at select intersections along Woodward Avenue, including:

• Congress Ave. [[complete)
• Campus Martius [[complete)
• Burroughs St. [[in process)
• Montcalm St. [[in process)

REDUCING CHARGE TIMES

The performance of the QLINE’s battery powering system has exceeded expectations, reducing the amount of time needed for vehicle charging along the route. The QLINE will begin to operate approximately 80% off-wire, eliminating approximately three minutes of battery charge time per round trip run.


STOP POLICY

QLINE station stops without passengers boarding or exiting the streetcar will be bypassed. The QLINE will stop at all stations with waiting passengers. It will also stop when onboard passengers push the “stop” button aboard the streetcar, indicating their intention to exit the streetcar.

[Bigdd]

If the Q line served 100,000 passengers in its first month of operation, it carried about 3,300, on average, each day. Were there predictions that the service would eventually carry about 8,000 each day?

Ridership needed to be 5,000 - 8,000 a day to break even [[which would make it the 2nd busiest streetcar in America).

I'm not sure if they ever released an actual projection though,.. as it was mostly privately financed [[for now).

Ridership is generally the heaviest in the first month [[especially when it's free).

People mover expectations were;
55,000 A DAY before completion. That got reduced to
15,000 a day by the time it opened. And
5,800 a day is the actual average claimed by the operator.

So essentially, reality was 10.5% of initial projections.

So if the Q-Line is STARTING off at 3,300,... I wouldn't ever expect it to get to 8,000 a day. In fact I'd be shocked if it ever averaged 2,500.

Then again,. there's another factor that cannot be compared to People Mover,.. and that is the possibility that the Q-Line will get expended. If it does,.. that will change things.

But of course,.. as the line gets extended,.. the costs go up and the required ridership goes up with it.

[professorscott]

Once again, isn't this system completely self-funded [[including operating deficits) by the money from the benefactors?

Isn't the notion that Detroit taxpayers' monies are funding it a red herring?

ProfessorScott: Is it true that no Detroit general fund monies are going to operate the QLine.

Yep.

Also, bigdd: no transit system in North America "breaks even" and that's not the point. Eight Mile Road doesn't break even, either, and neither does the Fire Department or your local public school. They are government services. QLine is different in that it is mostly a non-government service [[although there was some Federal, and indirectly State, money that went into its construction).

[Junjie]

Ridership needed to be 5,000 - 8,000 a day to break even [[which would make it the 2nd busiest streetcar in America).

I'm not sure if they ever released an actual projection though,.. as it was mostly privately financed [[for now).

Ridership is generally the heaviest in the first month [[especially when it's free).

People mover expectations were;
55,000 A DAY before completion. That got reduced to
15,000 a day by the time it opened. And
5,800 a day is the actual average claimed by the operator.

So essentially, reality was 10.5% of initial projections.

So if the Q-Line is STARTING off at 3,300,... I wouldn't ever expect it to get to 8,000 a day. In fact I'd be shocked if it ever averaged 2,500.

Then again,. there's another factor that cannot be compared to People Mover,.. and that is the possibility that the Q-Line will get expended. If it does,.. that will change things.

But of course,.. as the line gets extended,.. the costs go up and the required ridership goes up with it.

Jarrett Walker has a good talk he gives on transit projections... they're total BS. The entire exercise involves taking a model with arbitrary parameters, making arbitrary assumptions about how people will behave, and then spitting out a number. Garbage in, garbage out. Focusing on projections is a waste of time. What's important is whether the service is useful and whether people are using it.

And of course, this is the least useful the QLine will ever be. Additional development around Woodward, additional trains in service or other operational improvements, and eventual expansion will all increase the utility of the system to a larger number of people. Some of these processes take years or even decades to fully play out. Looking at the initial month to judge success makes no sense whatsoever.

[professorscott]

Jarrett Walker has a good talk he gives on transit projections... they're total BS. The entire exercise involves taking a model with arbitrary parameters, making arbitrary assumptions about how people will behave, and then spitting out a number. Garbage in, garbage out. Focusing on projections is a waste of time. What's important is whether the service is useful and whether people are using it.

Junjie... shhh... people aren't supposed to know that.

The reason we make the idiotic, mostly-blind guesses is that Uncle Sugar requires that we do so when we come to feed at the money trough. Otherwise, you're right, it's stupid and pointless. Predicting the future in the best of circumstances is a wild crap-shoot; watch channel 4 news any evening, check out what they say the weather is going to be eight days from now, and then in eight days make a note of the actual weather. Do this often enough and you'll see you could do just about as well by randomly guessing. And weather forecasting is about the most scientifically-grounded form of predicting the future that we have.

[Honky Tonk]

Junjie... shhh... people aren't supposed to know that.

The reason we make the idiotic, mostly-blind guesses is that Uncle Sugar requires that we do so when we come to feed at the money trough. Otherwise, you're right, it's stupid and pointless. Predicting the future in the best of circumstances is a wild crap-shoot; watch channel 4 news any evening, check out what they say the weather is going to be eight days from now, and then in eight days make a note of the actual weather. Do this often enough and you'll see you could do just about as well by randomly guessing. And weather forecasting is about the most scientifically-grounded form of predicting the future that we have.

What nonsense. You're not dealing with unpredictable variables, you're dealing with cut and dry accounting. Remember story problems from high school? "If Joe Moneybags spent X on a Blight Rail, and Y on operating it, and it costs Z per rider per ticket, how many riders a day would Joe need to break even on his investment?"

[Bigdd]

you're dealing with cut and dry accounting. Remember story problems from high school? "If Joe Moneybags spent X on a Blight Rail, and Y on operating it, and it costs Z per rider per ticket, how many riders a day would Joe need to break even on his investment?"

THAT part we can calculate.

But if you don't know even one major part of the equation,.. you are just guessing at the final answer.

And they have no clue as to what ridership will be.

So they've estimated a break-even point,.. but have no clue if it will ever break even.

Now that's all irrelevant to us,.. unless it does poorly and some years from now we're stuck paying a big bill. Presumably if it ever came to that they could just shut it down and mothball the cars.

[Bigdd]

And Professorscott is right on his other point, that being that the reason ridership estimates are always so overblown [[usually VASTLY overblown) is that their purpose is to extract funds from others, usually the public,.. and by force through taxation.

If it was really a great idea,.. it would be privately funded. Which in this case it is,.. at least mostly [[$25 million or more came from the Feds [[I.E. us taxpayers),.. and we're potentially on the hook in the future if things don't go well.

Most of these projects [[other than this one) tend to remind me of this
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDOI0cq6GZM

[Honky Tonk]

THAT part we can calculate.

But if you don't know even one major part of the equation,.. you are just guessing at the final answer.

And they have no clue as to what ridership will be.

So they've estimated a break-even point,.. but have no clue if it will ever break even.

Now that's all irrelevant to us,.. unless it does poorly and some years from now we're stuck paying a big bill. Presumably if it ever came to that they could just shut it down and mothball the cars.

I agree, but that wasn't my objection. My objection was the post insinuated the formula was pie-in-the-sky speculation, which it is not. Nobody seems to understand before the Blight Rail was conceived, before Ilitch ever put the first shovel in the ground for his coliseum, profit margin and how to get there, has all been planned out ahead of time, by the bean counters. No business person is going to invest financially into something they won't be able to recover their losses from.

[Bigdd]

Guessing the business case for it has everything to do with helping the "City within a city" plan along. Making the projects of Gilbert, Illich Holdings and etc viable by connecting them to the bars, restaurants,.. the one grocery store [[Whole Foods) the sporting venues, medical center etc.

While it may be a looser on it's own,.. the benefit to their condo and office building projects may make it worthwhile.

And so long as we don't have to pay for it,.. and it doesn't interfere with traffic too much,.. I have no objection.

[Hermod]

Funny, when streetcars actually made money and were built with private capital, the municipal government along the way did everything they could to hamstring them and the newspapers propagandized about "the obscene profits" being made by the privately owned streetcar companies.

[professorscott]

I agree, but that wasn't my objection. My objection was the post insinuated the formula was pie-in-the-sky speculation, which it is not. Nobody seems to understand before the Blight Rail was conceived, before Ilitch ever put the first shovel in the ground for his coliseum, profit margin and how to get there, has all been planned out ahead of time, by the bean counters. No business person is going to invest financially into something they won't be able to recover their losses from.

Well, 'Tonk, you make an excellent point. There are two completely different things going on here, so let's separate them.

1. Ridership projections: complete voodoo, as I said, performed in order to convince Uncle Sugar to toss us a few shekels. [[And, of course, it worked.) No other purpose.

2. Effect on the value of property in the corridor: easily predicted, though within a considerable band, and easily studied. That's one of the things we focused on when we went to Portland eight or nine years ago, and it was remarkable, and occurred in city after city, and was, really, why the thing was built. Dan Gilbert wasn't buying up property in the corridor, frantically, as a blind guess. He saw what happened elsewhere and believed it would be replicated in Detroit, since there was no reason for it not to, and in fact it was.

So you make an excellent point. Mr. Penske and Mr. Gilbert, the Ilitch family and so on are philanthropists as far as it goes, but they also understand the potential upside to their philanthropy. To which I say [[and you are free to disagree) there's nothing wrong with that.

[emu steve]

Indeed, ProfessorScott:

There is a lot of real world experience and data on #2.

One can not read an article for this new housing project or that and not read the words, "will be near the QLine..."

When folks try to sell [[advertise) apartment rentals or condo, they look for unique features to market: "Near the riverfront...", "minutes to downtown on the Qline...", "near the sports and entertainment district", etc.

If someone built an apartment complex at Woodward/8 mile, they would say... ???

[professorscott]

If someone built an apartment complex at Woodward/8 mile, they would say... ???

Try to hear this as though Woody Allen was saying it "Not as many prostitutes as there used to be?"

[Honky Tonk]

Well, 'Tonk, you make an excellent point. There are two completely different things going on here, so let's separate them.

1. Ridership projections: complete voodoo, as I said, performed in order to convince Uncle Sugar to toss us a few shekels. [[And, of course, it worked.) No other purpose.

2. Effect on the value of property in the corridor: easily predicted, though within a considerable band, and easily studied. That's one of the things we focused on when we went to Portland eight or nine years ago, and it was remarkable, and occurred in city after city, and was, really, why the thing was built. Dan Gilbert wasn't buying up property in the corridor, frantically, as a blind guess. He saw what happened elsewhere and believed it would be replicated in Detroit, since there was no reason for it not to, and in fact it was.

So you make an excellent point. Mr. Penske and Mr. Gilbert, the Ilitch family and so on are philanthropists as far as it goes, but they also understand the potential upside to their philanthropy. To which I say [[and you are free to disagree) there's nothing wrong with that.

Per Bigdd's post "Ridership needed to be 5,000 - 8,000 a day to break even [[which would make it the 2nd busiest streetcar in America).

I'm not sure if they ever released an actual projection though,.. as it was mostly privately financed [[for now).

That is basic accounting to break even on an investment made. IF they said "By the year 2020, we expect ridership to triple what it is today", THAT is a prediction. Akin to some meteorologist with bad hair spray saying "On August 23rd, 2017, we expect a tornado @ 4:27 p.m., on the corner of Warren and Woodward".

[masterblaster]

Indeed, ProfessorScott:

There is a lot of real world experience and data on #2.

One can not read an article for this new housing project or that and not read the words, "will be near the QLine..."

When folks try to sell [[advertise) apartment rentals or condo, they look for unique features to market: "Near the riverfront...", "minutes to downtown on the Qline...", "near the sports and entertainment district", etc.

If someone built an apartment complex at Woodward/8 mile, they would say... ???

they would say... a mile from downtown Ferndale, one of the prime centers of dining and nightlife in the Southeastern Michigan region. Also, adjacent to a relatively new, and well-patrolled commercial development that includes, among others, a Meijer, Planet Fitness, Mr. Alan's Elite, Marshall's, McDonald's, Starbucks, Edible Arrangements, and an Applebees. Also, next to the major public transit hub of the State Fairgrounds Transit Center.

[Honky Tonk]

they would say... a mile from downtown Ferndale, one of the prime centers of dining and nightlife in the Southeastern Michigan region. Also, adjacent to a relatively new, and well-patrolled commercial development that includes, among others, a Meijer, Planet Fitness, Mr. Alan's Elite, Marshall's, McDonald's, Starbucks, Edible Arrangements, and an Applebees. Also, next to the major public transit hub of the State Fairgrounds Transit Center.

Hey, that's pretty good.

[Bham1982]

they would say... a mile from downtown Ferndale, one of the prime centers of dining and nightlife in the Southeastern Michigan region. Also, adjacent to a relatively new, and well-patrolled commercial development that includes, among others, a Meijer, Planet Fitness, Mr. Alan's Elite, Marshall's, McDonald's, Starbucks, Edible Arrangements, and an Applebees. Also, next to the major public
transit hub of the State Fairgrounds Transit Center.

And equally close to some of the most violent, dystopian neighborhoods in the U.S., the busiest human trafficking corridor in the state, streets reminiscent of Dresden post-blitz and the famed drug distribution crossroads of John R/75.

Oh, and Dutch Girl donuts [[which are awesome).

[professorscott]

And equally close to some of the most violent, dystopian neighborhoods in the U.S., the busiest human trafficking corridor in the state, streets reminiscent of Dresden post-blitz and the famed drug distribution crossroads of John R/75.

Oh, and Dutch Girl donuts [[which are awesome).

Eight and Woodward is an awesome spot to take a bunch of public policy students. Ok, kids, walk half a mile north, and just look around and make notes on what you see. Then come back, walk half a mile south, and do the same thing. There's no natural border here; the only difference between what's going on in the south end of Ferndale and the north end of Detroit is the result of decades of different local government policies.

I know some people will argue that; will say that there were more differences than that, but riddle me this: if Detroit went to 9 Mile instead of 8 Mile, what would 8 1/2 Mile Road then look like? There you are.