City Modern Brush Park

[SammyS]

The curbed article didn't mention a concrete figure for sales. Do you have a source for the number of units sold?

If someone can tell me how to attach pics, I can show you exactly what you're looking for.

[SammyS]

Wow, tell that to folks owning tech stocks [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble) when they crashed...

or when stocks crashed on one day.

I thought the theory of stock prices is that they will in the LONG RUN reflect the value of those stocks. However, at any given time [[day) the price of any stock may not reflect the true value of that stock.

Yes, that's the free market working. You don't need to participate if you don't want to.

[Honky Tonk]

If someone can tell me how to attach pics, I can show you exactly what you're looking for.

Save your photo/attachment to your hard drive or storage device,

* Login To DY
* Reply or Reply With Quote, [[your choice)
* Go Advanced
* Manage Attachments
* Add Files
* Choose File
* Navigate To File Location
* Upload
* Check Photo You Uploaded
* Insert Line
* Done

Make sure you leave the cursor before or after your reply or post before attaching your photo.

[SammyS]

I'm on my phone so I don't get the "manage attachments" button

EDIT:
never mind, I think I worked it out

[Honky Tonk]

I'm on my phone so I don't get the "manage attachments" button

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[SammyS]

Here you go. Miscounted. 11/73 currently available left as of last Saturday

[DetroiterOnTheWestCoast]

The extent to which those are being sold is quite impressive. It will be interesting to see whole empty blocks in Brush Park rapidly being repopulated.

[MikeyinBrooklyn]

I think the pent up demand to live in Detroit- especially greater downtown/midtown- is enormous. Many people- myself included- at one point believed that there was only a small group of people who really wanted to live in the city. I thought that all the development was really a question of reshuffling where the same group of people would live. But that is clearly not the case. Housing of every type, at many different price points, are being bought up and rented by a wide assortment of people. The sales in this project are just further proof. I wish I knew what day I realized that Detroit was really back. I would celebrate that day every year as a holiday. Instead, I'll just be extra glad on Thanksgiving.

[Junjie]

I think the pent up demand to live in Detroit- especially greater downtown/midtown- is enormous. Many people- myself included- at one point believed that there was only a small group of people who really wanted to live in the city. I thought that all the development was really a question of reshuffling where the same group of people would live. But that is clearly not the case. Housing of every type, at many different price points, are being bought up and rented by a wide assortment of people. The sales in this project are just further proof. I wish I knew what day I realized that Detroit was really back. I would celebrate that day every year as a holiday. Instead, I'll just be extra glad on Thanksgiving.

I don't think you were really wrong. There wasn't much "pent-up" demand, or else prices would always have been high. It's just that demand increases as the area gets better. There's a positive feedback loop, and each new development means the area now meets the personal threshold of desirability/niceness/perceived safety/amenities for a few more people, who then become future residents. A development like this means more occupied housing, which means fewer vacant lots, more potential customers for downtown/midtown businesses, more riders on transit, more occupied storefronts, and thus a place that even more people perceive as a desirable place to live.

[emu steve]

I think the pent up demand to live in Detroit- especially greater downtown/midtown- is enormous. Many people- myself included- at one point believed that there was only a small group of people who really wanted to live in the city. I thought that all the development was really a question of reshuffling where the same group of people would live. But that is clearly not the case. Housing of every type, at many different price points, are being bought up and rented by a wide assortment of people. The sales in this project are just further proof. I wish I knew what day I realized that Detroit was really back. I would celebrate that day every year as a holiday. Instead, I'll just be extra glad on Thanksgiving.

I think, borrowing from one of my previous posts, that what we are seeing has been almost 20 years in the making.

With Comerica, Ford Field, etc. the seeds were planted for housing north of them.

First came Crosswinds [[is that what the development is called) and some other stuff.

Fast forward 10 years and word gets out to the public that LCA and QLine are coming and bingo developers start planning on develop a 'hidden gem' of a new 'old' neighborhood, Brush Park.

I still maintain that w/out Comerica, Ford Field, LCA and QLine that City Modern would still be a sea of empty lots and forlorn historical structures.

I think I can back this thesis up by plotting events on a timeline and how one event followed another event.

[Gistok]

Fast forward 10 years and word gets out to the public that LCA and QLine are coming and bingo developers start planning on develop a 'hidden gem' of a new 'old' neighborhood, Brush Park.

I still maintain that w/out Comerica, Ford Field, LCA and QLine that City Modern would still be a sea of empty lots and forlorn historical structures.

I think I can back this thesis up by plotting events on a timeline and how one event followed another event.

I think credit for Midtown has as much to do with Sue Mosey [[the head of the Midtown development group)... and Dan Gilbert, as much as it does the Ilitch's. Add into the mix the expanding development from WSU and DMC going south. Having the QLine and the Arena development only helps that area... but there are more factors than just the arena and stadia district developments.

Brush Park is a convergence of development from all sides.... and with the single exception of Crosswinds.... most of the residential development has spread southward from the north.

[MikeyinBrooklyn]

I think tearing down the public housing towers along I-75 helped a lot, too.

[emu steve]

Gistok,

I hear you, but I think the new development we are talking is between Mack and the Fisher and that [[SOUTHERN most part) is coming from the Fisher northward as folks decide that living close to the CBD and sports and entertainment district has real desirability. It is a logical extension of the Crosswinds [[and it is adjacent to the Crosswinds).

What is happening around WSU headed south still is a long ways away and might be stymied by the remnants of the "Cass Corridor" [[in quotes to refer to a very specific area with unique characteristics.)

I agree 100% with Mikey that the removal of the public housing along I-75 was critical.

What I think the big question unanswered in this thread:

Why has the value of the Crosswinds houses increased so much in recent years?

I obviously noticed them 5 or 10 years ago [[going to sporting events) but they sat there like out on an island without much around them.

Then something happened and everyone wanted to build in that area.

And the value of EXISTING housing [[i.e., Crosswinds) increased dramatically.

Of course, we can make everyone happy and say that development has worked both south from WSU/DMC and north from the sports and entertainment district.

I think we can say the development moving south from WSU/DMC did not depend on development moving north from the sports and entertainment district. AND VICE VERSA.

Quite frankly, the only common thread is really the QLine.

That said, having both happen obviously causes synergy and strengthen that entire Woodward corridor from say Grand Circus Park to I-94.

BTW, I consider MLKjr/Mack as kind of the divide between the development moving south and development moving north.

[emu steve]

BTW, I don't see this as a 'chicken and egg' discussion.

I see it more like a set of fraternal twins.

Both developing together, at the same time, but still independent of each other.

[SammyS]

Emu Steve,
Crosswinds bottomed out a few years after the GFC where many units were sold on wholesale off the banks books. Units that have recently sold for >$350k, sold back then for about $80k. This was well before Detroits Chapter 9 filing and Duggan's major race. LCA's location had not yet been announced and the QLine was still in its infancy planning stage. City Modern was not even on the table back then.

To suggest that the above mentioned factors directly affected Crosswinds prices would be accurate to an extent but if you look beyond Brush Park, you would have noticed that large areas around midtown also experienced rapid price movement over the same period. Canfield mansions were selling for <$50/sqft and Cass corridors property could not be moved. Those areas now are untouchable.

To further elaborate, I would list the following factors/events that directly impacted CW prices, in addition to those already mentioned above:

-Lifestyle change for empty nesters
-Migration of young professionals into the city through improved employment opportunities
-Out of state investors, especially for NYC
-Local Economic improvement
-Rental returns spiking

[emu steve]

Sammy, I agree with you.

If this was a multiple choice question I'd choose "All of the above.'

What has happened in terms of employment in the CBD, City of Detroit's rise from financial ashes, financial subsidies to encourage renting/owning in Midtown/downtown, flourishing of sports and entertainment in the area, improved public transportation in the immediate vicinity, improved quality of life issues like grocery stores, city actions to demolish the public housing and get that land back, etc.

Some day when this chapter of Detroit's renaissance is written, a lot of credit to go around for folks like Sue Mosey, Dan Gilbert, Ilitches, consortium of individuals and groups who funded the QLine, etc. And last but not least is the mayor who has been rock solid on development. Sometimes governments can hinder rather than foster, but that hasn't been the case here.

Each had a part to do with a segment [[I now see 3 segments: I-94 to MLKjr/Mack, MLKjr/Mack to Grand Circus Park, and the CBD.

[3WC]

EMU Steve, respectfully, there is no such thing as the “true value” of a stock or anything else as I believe you use the term, assuming it’s exposed to the market for a reasonable time. The so called “true value” is whatever a willing buyer is willing to pay a willing seller. Subjective opinion as to true value is irrelevant.

[emu steve]

EMU Steve, respectfully, there is no such thing as the “true value” of a stock or anything else as I believe you use the term, assuming it’s exposed to the market for a reasonable time. The so called “true value” is whatever a willing buyer is willing to pay a willing seller. Subjective opinion as to true value is irrelevant.

I understand what you are saying, and we might be partially agreeing.

I use my own formulation as follows [[using the concept that the marketplace determines value of things which are sold):

Many things are bought but expect to be sold at a later date, e.g., stocks, house, car, etc.

To me, the 'true value' of that asset is in large part dependent on what it could be sold for, if and when it would be put up for sale.

If one is going to buy a 1969 Ford Mustang and keep it until one dies, then the concept of value is essentially irrelevant.

Many assets, e.g., houses, cars, etc. are bought and are expected to be sold.

So if someone bought a unit as Crosswinds and wanted to sell it a year later, then the price a willing buyer would be willing to pay factors into the true value of that asset.

Or someone buys a 20M house in So. Cal which they determine if a fair price. However, the market for 20M houses is thin. The purchaser may not be able to resell it for 20M.

[SammyS]

EMU Steve, respectfully, there is no such thing as the “true value” of a stock or anything else as I believe you use the term, assuming it’s exposed to the market for a reasonable time. The so called “true value” is whatever a willing buyer is willing to pay a willing seller. Subjective opinion as to true value is irrelevant.

Right on. Sometimes "speculation" could be viewed as future prices pulled forward based on momentum and general trends. They don't always have to make sense to the general public. Just look at BitCoin for instance. Not many agree with its price action and even fewer believe it's sustainable. Nevertheless, it has experienced a 600% move in only 1 year. Now, this is not to suggest you jump head first into highly volatile trades but rather just asses the level of risk you're willing to take before committing. City Modern may be regarded by some as equally risky but I would bet that those already invested think prices are very reasonable or even good value. Let's find out in a few years how things go.

[archfan]

Right on. Sometimes "speculation" could be viewed as future prices pulled forward based on momentum and general trends. They don't always have to make sense to the general public. Just look at BitCoin for instance. Not many agree with its price action and even fewer believe it's sustainable. Nevertheless, it has experienced a 600% move in only 1 year. Now, this is not to suggest you jump head first into highly volatile trades but rather just asses the level of risk you're willing to take before committing. City Modern may be regarded by some as equally risky but I would bet that those already invested think prices are very reasonable or even good value. Let's find out in a few years how things go.

Also known as the Greater Fool theory.

[SammyS]

Also known as the Greater Fool theory.

Right. Tell that to the crypto guys or even the property investors in and around downtown. Sometimes it takes some balls or better still, knowing how to differentiate the signal from the noise.

[mwilbert]

Experience keeps a dear school, but fools will learn in no other. --Benjamin Franklin

[emu steve]

Lest I be wrong, the City of Detroit RFP is for the land adjacent to City Modern. Correct?

If so, it would continue the process [[progress) toward getting to 'critical mass' of development in that area.

If I were at City Modern I'd greatly welcome [[hoping) to have new neighbors instead of empty land across the street.

http://www.crainsdetroit.com/article...rush-park-land

[SammyS]

^^
Brush Park is returning to its former glory with average prices rapidly approaching half a mil.

[SammyS]

Phase 1 and 2 almost sold out. Another price increase expected for unsold units and Phase 3. This is the 4th price increase since initial release.