China’s Electric Vehicles Are Going to Hit Detroit Like a Wrecking Ball

[Lowell]

So reads a guest essay in today's NY Times. A bit of hyperbole perhaps but the warning signs are abundant. Here are some snippets.

"It happened very quickly — so fast that you might not have noticed it. Over the past few months, America’s Big Three automakers — Ford, General Motors and Stellantis, the oddly named company that owns Dodge, Chrysler and Jeep — landed in big trouble. I realize this may sound silly. Ford, General Motors and Stellantis made billions in profit last year, even after a lengthy strike by autoworkers, and all three companies are forecasting a big 2024. "

"The biggest threat to the Big Three comes from a new crop of Chinese automakers, especially BYD, which specialize in producing plug-in hybrid and fully electric vehicles. BYD’s growth is astounding: It sold three million electrified vehicles last year, more than any other company, and it now has enough production capacity in China to manufacture four million cars a year."

"BYD’s cars deliver great value at prices that beat anything coming out of the West. Earlier this month, BYD unveiled a plug-in hybrid that gets decent all-electric range and will retail for just over $11,000."

"The other looming problem for Ford and General Motors is that their balance sheets, while superficially robust, conceal a structural vulnerability. While the two companies have done generally well in recent years, their billions in profits have overwhelmingly flowed from selling a relatively small number of vehicles to a small group of people. Specifically, Ford and GM’s earnings rest primarily on selling pickup trucks, S.U.V.s and crossovers to affluent North Americans."

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/27/o...-vehicles.html

[oladub]

Import quotas decades ago were drastically reduced to help the economies of Japan and S. Korea. We can see how that worked out for UAW workers in Detroit and Flint. Is it possible that China could use the same low import rates originally designed to strengthen Japan and S. Korea fend off China?

My son, who is a pro-EV fanatic, replied to a copy of your OP, "China OEMs will eat the big 3 for lunch if they don’t get their act together on affordable EVs. It is a mass extinction event in progress."

[Rocket]

More like a road flare than a wrecking ball.

They can't hardly sell the BYD new energy vehicles in China anymore because they have terrible range, terrible quality, and they keep bursting into flames.

They have fields full of tens of thousands of them, rotting.

These massive fields of EV's are included in the alleged sales figures. The unsalable vehicles are sold on paper to banks, and then move to the fields to rot. The funds are then used to continue manufacturing and to declare paper profits.

Now they're trying to dispose of them here.

The president needs to demand protections, so that when we're done with them [[which might be after a month), that we can dispose of them in China.

This may be China's plan. To dispose of their toxic waste in the USA instead of having to deal with it themselves.


There's a huge problem [[well, 50 really) with trying to sell cheap External Combustion Vehicles [[ECV's), and that is, the people who would buy a cheap car rarely have the ability to plug it in at night, as they don't have garages / car ports.

ECV's only make sense at the $40,000 - $200,000 price point, where the owners all have garages with $1,800 Level 2 chargers installed. And even then, no one in their right mind would park a BYD in their garage.

[Gistok]

^ Rocket, you and I rarely agree... but good post!!

Maybe having a "detached" garage will one day make me sleep better at night if I buy one of those vehicles [[not Chinese)...

[softailrider]

Come up with an electric vehicle that I can recharge in 5 minutes like it takes me to fill up my ICE car with gas and I MIGHT be interested.

[401don]

I do wish the Big 3 had more entry level vehicles. Although brand loyalty isn't what it used to be, there are still people who will buy their 1st new vehicle and continue to trade up with that brand due to satisfaction, relationship with the dealer, etc. GM could have kept the cruze although the new trax, while not built in N.A., is getting good reviews and appears to fit the entry level cuv market. On the other hand, there's nothing wrong with selling in profitable segments. The Big 3 used to chase market share over profits and 2 of the 3 ended up bankrupt.

[Henry Whalley]

...The president needs to demand protections...

China's waste import ban - Wikipedia

IIRC the protection horse left the barn half a century ago. The PRC no longer imports our mountains of garbage. Meanwhile leadership at Ford has rediscovered its age-old bloodlust for union-busting.

Economic_And_Trade_Agreement_Between_The_United_St ates_And_China_Text.pdf [[d3i6fh83elv35t.cloudfront.net)

Read the full U.S.-China ‘Phase 1’ trade agreement | PBS NewsHour

[Henry Whalley]

...having a "detached" garage will one day make me sleep better at night if I buy one of those vehicles [[not Chinese)...

LOL. Costco will be selling detached garages made in the PRC.

[Jimaz]

...Maybe having a "detached" garage will one day make me sleep better at night if I buy one of those vehicles [[not Chinese)...

It seems history can't avoid repeating itself. From Historic Garages to Modern Garages: The History Behind Where You Park Your Ride

The garages were nearly always detached from the rest of the home, for risk of gasoline explosion {gas was stored in the garage, as gas stations were yet to be invented}. By the 1920’s, most of these detached garages were built of brick, concrete blocks, clay tiles, or pressed tin, rather than wood. It wasn’t until closer to 1950 that detached garages were built to match the same style as the home, and attached garages became more and more popular.

[Zacha341]

Hope we don't end up with our own stacks of great running China EV's!

[oladub]

ECV's only make sense at the $40,000 - $200,000 price point, where the owners all have garages with $1,800 Level 2 chargers installed. And even then, no one in their right mind would park a BYD in their garage.

I have a '20 Bolt that I bought after the '21s had come out. Brand new with bells and whistles, I bought it for $21K+ including taxes, license, and mysterious dealer expenses. If you do a lot of long distance back road driving or depend on pubic electricity, I wouldn't recommend an EV. However, as a second vehicle that is charged at home, it's the vehicle I prefer. I hook up the charger in less time than it takes the garage door to come down. In the morning, it is ready to go. I don't miss gas stations and plopping down $40 for a tank of gas. It's more fun to drive. It's quieter and accelerates faster than any car I've owned. One of my sons installed the charger in my garage. I frequently drive 80 miles each way RT with no need to charge it. On the interstates, Walmart's chargers take about a half hour while I am inside buying stuff.

EV's are the future. The technology is improving at a faster rate than ICE engines. Charging times are decreasing while miles per charge are increasing. Democrats are out to destroy the efficacy of fossil fuels. It is imperative that Chinese EV's not be allowed in or our dollars leave the Country and we will have more Flints.

Republicans are being stupid about holding back this new technology because of some sort of luddite belief narrative. I say that as someone who doesn't vote for Democrats. The fire thing is hyped. Only one 2020 Bolt ever caught fire the last I've heard but GM replaced my battery with 36,000 for free anyway.

[Zacha341]

^ Interesting points. Beyond republicans holding back EV tech our own weak/ inconsistent power grid is a factor. Toyota didn't go full-on EV for a reason.

[Richard]

Their Seagull is the size of a Prius and gives you two battery pack range options,190 miles or 251 miles,for $11,000.

They also have a super car that has 1300 Hp.

It’s the buying public that will dictate the market and in this country cheap rules over what’s actually best for everybody involved.

In the future people protesting about livable wages etc will be going to the rally points in a Chinese Seagull,no different than people protesting climate change while carrying bottled water in plastic.

What I do not understand is,why in a state that you know full well that the Chinese will eat your lunch,but yet you climb right into bed with them and give them taxpayer money in order to build a battery factory in your state?

It’s akin to hiring your own hit man or them,their/it .

Chinese-owned companies in Michigan
• Nexteer Automotive in Saginaw and Troy: auto supplier
• Shanghai Automotive Industries Corp. [[SAIC) USA in Birmingham: auto manufacturer [[purchasing, logistics, engineering)
• Yangfeng USA in Harrison Township: auto trim manufacturer
• Changan Automobile Group in Plymouth: auto manufacturer [[research and design)
• Pacific Century Motors in Buena Vista Township: auto supplier
• M-Tex in Detroit: Mold texturing for tooling industry [[sales, marketing and support)
• Jinzhou Halla Equipment Electrical Equipment Co. in Detroit: Auto supplier
• China Automotive Systems in Detroit: auto supplier [[sales, marketing and support)

Sense 2000 the Chinese have been systematically taking control of the automotive sector in Michigan,little by little company by company,so it will not matter how many import duties you put on them,they can offset the losses by charging more for the products they sell to U.S. manufacturers and force them to increase their prices.

They have been setting themselves up in order to directly compete with U.S. production,what is left of it,on U.S. soil for the last 25 years.

[Honky Tonk]

Now the connection between the Chinese and the current administration is fairly obvious.

[mwilbert]

I don't think there's much danger in EV's from China capturing much of the US market--the tariffs are high and if that's not enough they could be higher.

The risk is that the Chinese companies open plants in North America, particularly in Mexico. I don't know how big that risk is, but that's what I'd be worried about.

[GPCharles]

How are the Chinese going to sell and maintain their customer's vehicles without a dealership network, which is required in many states, including Michigan?

[Honky Tonk]

How are the Chinese going to sell and maintain their customer's vehicles without a dealership network, which is required in many states, including Michigan?

You mean "yet". Stay tuned, it's coming. As far as tariffs go, it's a fact that the tariff system for US goods going into China is not equal to Chinese goods coming into the US.

[mwilbert]

How are the Chinese going to sell and maintain their customer's vehicles without a dealership network, which is required in many states, including Michigan?

No car company has a dealer network until they have one. I can remember when Kia and Hyundai and Land Rover and [[longer ago) Honda didn't have dealer networks either. Typically existing auto dealers seem perfectly happy to extend their brand offerings. I remember when there were Yugo dealers--if you have a product, someone will probably be willing to try to sell it for you.

[Richard]

You mean "yet". Stay tuned, it's coming. As far as tariffs go, it's a fact that the tariff system for US goods going into China is not equal to Chinese goods coming into the US.

They will always find willing accomplices in order to get around the tariffs,we put heavy tariffs in order to prevent steel dumping,so they just sent it to Canada and Canada dumped it here.

[ddaydetroit]

I just came from the Vientiane the capital of Laos which shares a border with China and am now in Bangkok and have been paying attention to EV’s because of this post much to my surprise Vientiane has a lot of EV’s Bangkok also has a lot but not as many Tesla is the most popular but they have been around the longest I would say I am seeing an equal amount of BYD and Neta with many other smaller brands I would guess only about 1 percent of vehicles are EV’s in Bangkok and a little higher in Vientiane I haven’t see any EV’s outside of the big cities

[Lowell]

I have read where Asian countries are sprinting full speed to EV's in light vehicles, motor bikes, three-wheel cab vehicles, and the like. Are you seeing any of that? Allegedly it is noticeably improving the air.

EV's in their current range abilities are ideal for short distance vehicles, like school buses, local delivery, etc.

I just came from the Vientiane the capital of Laos which shares a border with China and am now in Bangkok and have been paying attention to EV’s because of this post much to my surprise Vientiane has a lot of EV’s Bangkok also has a lot but not as many Tesla is the most popular but they have been around the longest I would say I am seeing an equal amount of BYD and Neta with many other smaller brands I would guess only about 1 percent of vehicles are EV’s in Bangkok and a little higher in Vientiane I haven’t see any EV’s outside of the big cities

[Rocket]

External combustion vehicles ARE NOT the future. They are dying.

Germany recently stopped their subsidies on them, and sales fell in half. HALF !

The greenest car sold today is the Pirus Prime. A plug in hybrid.

We can be 30x greener building those than we can building full external combustion vehicles.

[Rocket]

I have read where Asian countries are sprinting full speed to EV's in light vehicles, motor bikes, three-wheel cab vehicles, and the like. Are you seeing any of that? Allegedly it is noticeably improving the air.

China outlawed gas scooters around 2009. You used to see 100 of those red, 125cc scooters at every intersection.

ECV's [External Combustion Vehicles] are something like 25% of new car sales now, and the intelligent choice, [plug-in hybrids] account for 37% of new sales.

So they are having to rapidly build 250 gigawatts worth of new coal-fired power plants. So the air is getting worse.

[401don]

China outlawed gas scooters around 2009. You used to see 100 of those red, 125cc scooters at every intersection.

Meanwhile now everybody parks their electric bikes in their highrise units. Last I saw that was thought to be the cause of the fire that killed 15 people last week.

[mwilbert]

External combustion vehicles ARE NOT the future. They are dying.

Germany recently stopped their subsidies on them, and sales fell in half. HALF !

The greenest car sold today is the Pirus Prime. A plug in hybrid.

We can be 30x greener building those than we can building full external combustion vehicles.

You have to distinguish timescales here. Right this minute, plug-in hybrids are an excellent choice. But they are a transitional technology. In maybe five years, certainly in ten, they will be pointless in most situations--you'll have faster charging, cheaper batteries using more common materials and you'll have lower carbon electricity and you'll have built out charging networks, and EVs will dominate.