Is Detroit Really Making a Comeback?

[EGrant]

New post from CityLab that does not paint a very bright picture of Detroit's recent resurgence.

Read it here.

Thoughts?

[313WX]

New post from CityLab that does not paint a very bright picture of Detroit's recent resurgence.

Read it here.

Thoughts?

I detect no lies.

It's nice to finally step back into reality for a change.

[SammyS]

Can't stand these types of stories. They typically come from two sources.

1. SJW journalists with little to no skin in the game
2. Those who have conceded missing out.

It is further misleading by skewing the data. For instance, midtown prices. Why 2008? Detroit ran on a completely different course from the rest of the nation for the past 50+ years, including before and after the GFC, so why compare it to other cities? Put your peg around 2011/12. Now tell me how many other areas in the US saw 30%+ pa appreciation.

[Jason]

I don't think the article says anything that everyone didn't already know. The greater downtown and select neighborhoods are improving, and everywhere else has continued to decline.

But I genuinely think that a functioning downtown also benefits the city as a whole, and I don't think downtown vs the other parts is a zero sum game. The city could always hypothetically do more, but would anyone disagree that city services have been improving? And even in the best scenario could city hall reverse structural poverty of hundreds of thousands at the same pace that building owners can provide competently managed office and residential space downtown?

[ParisianLesion]

SJW?
GFC?
pa? per annum?

[Colombian Dan]

No amount of hipsters are going to bring back Detroit. Former mayor Bloomberg had the best idea so far. Detroit needs to be flooded with at least 500,000 immigrants preferably from Latin America.

[SammyS]

SJW?
GFC?
pa? per annum?

Social Justice Warrior
Global Financial Crisis
Yes, per annum

[Cliffy]

No amount of hipsters are going to bring back Detroit. Former mayor Bloomberg had the best idea so far. Detroit needs to be flooded with at least 500,000 immigrants preferably from Latin America.

How are 500,000 unskilled [[assuming you mean that) immigrants going to help

[emu steve]

One thing I don't like is how they classify jobs.

I assume for most purposes one is interested in where the jobs are located, are they increasing or declining over time, etc. not if the employee lives in the city or a suburb.

That measures something very different than the employment/unemployment rates for residents of the city.

To me, I would be interested in employment levels within the city, income taxes collected, revenue, etc.

I suspected anyone who can interpret a graph could look at those data for say the last 10 years and they are either headed upward or downward.

[Calltoaction]

YES, now tell everyone about it.

[Atticus]

The part that is being overlooked is that over the last few years, the city government has finally become functional. And while it is know, I think that story is often very much understated, for many various reasons.

But a more functional city government goes beyond fixing street lights an better police presence. It is the little things like getting a building permit approved, or not having to pay off the right person to purchase a property that finally give redevelopment a legitimate chance.

20 years ago, many [[not all) city government workers were on the payroll simply because it was a "public service" to have people employed, even if their job was pointless. Another positive from the bankruptcy is that the public [[and quasi-public) agencies have work forces where most people do things now. Basically, a leaner government where 90% are working hard is much more productive than a bloated city government, where only 20% were working hard. It makes a difference.

It will still be a long time before the outer neighborhoods turnaround, but with a functional, competent, and working city government, there are possibilities for change now that never existed before.

[MikeyinBrooklyn]

I haven't and won't read the article. If you have eyes, ears & a brain, you are aware of how improved the city is. Yes, it hasn't reached every part of the city yet, but Detroit didn't fall apart over night, either.

[ParisianLesion]

How are 500,000 unskilled [[assuming you mean that) immigrants going to help

Why in the world would you make the blanket assumption that a) immigrants are 'unskilled' and b) that is what CD meant?

[mwilbert]

Maybe this article is a useful corrective if there are actually any people who think that Detroit has somehow already reversed the effects of 60 years of decline. But a lot of what is says isn't really right. There are no population statistics accurate and precise enough to let us know if the overall population decline has stopped. Even if the population loss has stopped as of now, it may not show up in only population statistics I trust [[the decennial census figures) for another 15 years. There probably isn't good enough income data to say whether incomes are rising or falling either.

As far as the other stuff, is there anyone who isn't aware that the schools are bad? They probably aren't getting worse, as they were already pretty much useless, and at least there are fewer students in them not being educated. And while there is certainly a growing gap between the core and many neighborhoods, that isn't true of all the neighborhoods--there are also many neighborhoods that seem to be on a significant upswing. And, like the schools, there are ever-fewer people living in the declining neighborhoods.

The uneven progress is a real problem that deserve real attention, and it is a serious limitation in the story of Detroit's recovery, but it was also a feature of most of the other city revivals in the US, and to take them to mean that there hasn't been a significant improvement in the city over the past several years is not a reasonable interpretation of the facts.

[Colombian Dan]

All men are created equal...however all cultures are not equal. The culture in Detroit for the past 60 years has been one of violence, negative beliefs and entitlement based on perceived historical biases. 500,000 unskilled positive thinking hard working people is exactly what Detroit needs to break the current cultural negativity.

[Zacha341]

^^^ I really don't see how anyone [[of any nationality or background) UNSKILLED is going to be able to help the city of Detroit or themselves upon arrival. What support system will they need during the interim 'training period'? Resources are scarce now. Please detail how, and where will they be trained, and what specific training?

Further, what will the existing Detroiter's [[skilled and unskilled, professional and not, and our 'positive' thinking types) be doing while this is occurring?

[emu steve]

Maybe this article is a useful corrective if there are actually any people who think that Detroit has somehow already reversed the effects of 60 years of decline. But a lot of what is says isn't really right. There are no population statistics accurate and precise enough to let us know if the overall population decline has stopped. Even if the population loss has stopped as of now, it may not show up in only population statistics I trust [[the decennial census figures) for another 15 years. There probably isn't good enough income data to say whether incomes are rising or falling either.

As far as the other stuff, is there anyone who isn't aware that the schools are bad? They probably aren't getting worse, as they were already pretty much useless, and at least there are fewer students in them not being educated. And while there is certainly a growing gap between the core and many neighborhoods, that isn't true of all the neighborhoods--there are also many neighborhoods that seem to be on a significant upswing. And, like the schools, there are ever-fewer people living in the declining neighborhoods.

The uneven progress is a real problem that deserve real attention, and it is a serious limitation in the story of Detroit's recovery, but it was also a feature of most of the other city revivals in the US, and to take them to mean that there hasn't been a significant improvement in the city over the past several years is not a reasonable interpretation of the facts.

I agree the problem with data to prove [[or disprove) a point is that a lot of them aren't reliable.

The 2020 decennial census [[data available early 2021) should give us our first real clues if the pop. decline has been reversed. By April 1, 2020, if the 'reversal' is real we should see that the 2020 pop > 2010 pop. Otherwise, it is not good to say pop. in say downtown, midtown, Brush Park went up 50K in 10 years, BUT the balance of the city saw a loss of 100K.

I am really, really fascinated if there are reliable longitudinal data on employment within the city of Detroit.

Maybe data on the number of establishments?

Wonder how much of these data the city has? Census bureau?

[Junjie]

New post from CityLab that does not paint a very bright picture of Detroit's recent resurgence.

Read it here.

Thoughts?

The article is correct, insofar as some of the press has gotten a bit breathless about the comeback. It's still very limited in scale, even within downtown and midtown.

The article is deeply stupid, insofar as it says that Detroit needs to create hundreds of thousands of [[minimally) $10/hour jobs for its residents and then complains about people moving into the CBD and creating some of those jobs because they're from the "wrong" social background.

[emu steve]

The article is correct, insofar as some of the press has gotten a bit breathless about the comeback. It's still very limited in scale, even within downtown and midtown.

Lot of times writers, fans, etc. get WAY ahead of the story.

There IS a story in CBD, downtown, Midtown, etc. but it is starting and has not yet reached its maturation, culmination or where it needs to be.

One will not be able to claim success in Brush Park, for example, until say 2K housing units are built.

Until then it is most 'green shoots' phenomena where we get all excited about the first signs but they are the beginning not the culmination.

We hear about 1.2B to be spent within District Detroit yet the story won't be complete until that number totals 2 - 3B.

The 1.2B is the first half of the grand hope not the culmination.

Ditto with the fail jail site, 1B will be the fail jail site but still billions can be spent on development in that general area in addition to what Gilbert plans to spend.

So we've gotten through the opening chapter or chapters of the book, but there are many more chapters to be written as to what the downtown core areas of Detroit will be in the next 10 or 20 years.

[Cliffy]

Why in the world would you make the blanket assumption that a) immigrants are 'unskilled' and b) that is what CD meant?

You owe me an apology. I was right. See above. For those playing at home, most legal immigrants are unskilled. My parents are a prime example.

[ParisianLesion]

You owe me an apology. I was right. See above. For those playing at home, most legal immigrants are unskilled. My parents are a prime example.

From the Migration Policy Institute:

"In 2014, 29 percent [[10.5 million) of the 36.7 million immigrants ages 25 and older had a bachelor's degree or higher, compared to 30 percent of native-born adults. Notably, the share of college-educated immigrants is much higher.—44 percent—among those who entered the country since 2010. On the other end of the educational spectrum, 30 percent of immigrants lacked a high school diploma or General Educational Development [[GED) certificate versus 10 percent of their native-born counterparts."

In addition, for those that are not college educated, there are numerous articles and research on the fact that immigrants are more likely to be entrepreneurs and take advantage of the "American Dream."

You owe yourself a wider perspective.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.blo...nancial-advice

[ParisianLesion]

You owe me an apology. I was right. See above. For those playing at home, most legal immigrants are unskilled. My parents are a prime example.

And, no, you were wrong. Don't try to pull a Bham and change you're original statement so that you still have an argument. You said 500,000 unskilled immigrants, clearly stating that ALL would be 'unskilled'.

Clearly, one does not need a college education to be considered 'skilled.' And since 44% of immigrants are currently entering the country with a college education, I think it a safe assumption that MOST immigrants are skilled, or even highly skilled.

The balance seem to be starting businesses or doing work the rest of don't want to do.

[Colombian Dan]

The only resource 500,000 immigrants will need to survive in Detroit is legal status. They will find ways to support themselves without the need of government aid. Its amazing to see the resourcefulness of the Colombians here in Bogota. People with literally scraps of material are able to build useful things and make a living. Unfortunately for the current batch of Detroiters waiting for the next government bailout.. those souls will be pushed aside. Is there some pressing need or concern to perserve the status quo of Detroits unproductive violent culture? Its time to move on and let the legal immigrants show how its done.

[Honky Tonk]

Before this thread gets off on the Immigrants Riding In On Unicorns to save Detroit tangent, I highly recommend everyone go to the DFT and see the 2017 Academy Awards Nominated Documentaries. There are several dealing with Syrian immigrants and life in Syria. Though the documentaries themselves are heart-wrenching, I don't foresee Syrian refugees being the salvation of Detroit anytime soon. There's going to have to be a tremendous influx of capital to prop the Syrian's up before that will happen, if it does @ all. My guess is once they become self-sufficient, they'll head for greener pastures like others have done.

[Colombian Dan]

500,000 Colombians would love to come to Detroit legally.....