Metro Detroit-Windsor 2017 Predictions

[mtburb]

For historical purposes, below are links to the previous new year prediction threads:

2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

And here we go:

1. Q-Line opens and reports surprisingly high ridership.
2. [[Since I failed on this last year) Eastland closes.
3. Red Wings and Pistons finish their final seasons in their respective arenas with playoff appearances but get eliminated in the first round.
4. Lions improve on their 2016 record and win the NFC North and a first-week bye in the 2017 playoffs. This comes as a shocker to thousands of fans who thought they would never achieve that in their lifetimes.
5. Tigers continue improving but again fail to make the playoffs for the third straight season.
6. Wayne County, Dan Gilbert or whoever owns it now is forced to resume work on the jail site.
7. The Metro Airport outlet mall plan is cancelled.
8. Duggan gets reelected for a second term.
9. Taylor continues attracting major regional and national chains to settle in along Eureka Road as Menard's finally begins construction.
10. A skyscraper taller than the RenCen is announced for the Hudson Block.

Add your predictions.

[Danny]

1. Q-Line opens and reports surprisingly high ridership.

Hi ridership at its grand opening, minimum and regular ridership when it ends back and forth from end to end.

2. [[Since I failed on this last year) Eastland closes.

Despite being a ghetto mall, Eastland Mall will not close, just yet give it about 5 to 10 years if Macy's decides to leave.

3. Red Wings and Pistons finish their final seasons in their respective arenas with playoff appearances but get eliminated in the first round.

Red Wings and Pistons will NOT make it to the playoffs, this year. Red Wings will miss the playoffs for the first time in 26 years. Look at the bright side. It least they will share their now home at Gilberttown Detroit.


4. Lions improve on their 2016 record and win the NFC North and a first-week bye in the 2017 playoffs. This comes as a shocker to thousands of fans who thought they would never achieve that in their lifetimes.

Lions will not make it the NFC North, Not the way their playing. They need to cut it out on the Stafford-Tate Show and work on more blocking protection and running game. plays. All NFL team knows about the Stafford Tate-Show. And NO NO NO! The Lions will not win the NFC North or go to the Super Bowl. Forget it!

5.Tigers continue improving but again fail to make the playoffs for the third straight season.

That's right. At least "Miggy" Cabrera has a great season with 40 home run hitters. Brad Ausmus will be fired soon.

6. Wayne County, Dan Gilbert or whoever owns it now is forced to resume work on the jail site.

It's Wayne County who owns the jail site and they will continue to finish it.

7. The Metro Airport outlet mall plan is cancelled.

It's already been cancelled!

8. Duggan gets reelected for a second term.

Of course. He will received about 70% of the black vote to get it.

9. Taylor continues attracting major regional and national chains to settle in along Eureka Road as Menard's finally begins construction

It will happen after Menard's comes to town. This is put Home Depot across the street to close down and Have Metro-City Church take over the building and make a parochial school campus.

10. A skyscraper taller than the RenCen is announced for the Hudson Block

Not going to happen, but a 60 story glass covered skyscraper on the Hudson Block will do.

But I will tell you this. Since the Chase Bank inside the Quicken Loans WHQ Building has moved. Plans for a new Apple Store is in the works. We may get it by 2020.

[MSUguy]

QLine beats ridership expectations

With Capitol Park retail filling in look for Washington Blvd to be a hot address

Second tower announced for the Crowne Plaza

[dtowncitylover]

1. QLine beats ridership expectations leading to two things: most streetcars on the line at times, meaning better and longer service times and calls for extensions included in the RTA plan

2. 5 more stores are announced for downtown: Canada Goose, Uniqlo, MAC, Bloomingdale's Outlet, and APPLE!

3. Book Building and Tower continues to make the dramatic refurbish, though it's not done yet!

4. Hudson's site will be announced [[because hope, right?!) including 2 tenant announcements, a major retailer and a major corporate. Guess: City Target and a social media company

5. More development announcements for residential high rises

6. The RTA learns it's lesson and goes on a tour of the ENTIRE metro area and hears from all citizens.

7. Trump visits town leading to a hoard of pro and anti-Trumpers leading to a mini-riot making national headlines. Bham1982 and SyGolden are the leaders of the two groups. None of us win, of course.

8. The Detroit News folds, no pun intended, its paper edition and only having an on-line presence. But that will eventually fail because its readership base doesn't do the whole internet thing, really.

9. Amtrak announces, with DOT and MDOT funding, that the Detroit station will be rebuilt and enlarged leading to speculation that a Detroit-Cleveland and Detroit-Grand Rapids routes are being considered. [[my personal wish).

10 [[to make it even) MDOT makes announcement to cap the Fisher between Cass and Brush and on the Lodge from Michigan to Fort.

[Bobl]

"Trump visits town leading to a hoard of pro and anti-Trumpers leading to a mini-riot making national headlines. Bham1982 and SyGolden are the leaders of the two groups. None of us win, of course." Few will win, with or without any demonstration or confrontation. The con job of the century has begun.

[bust]

Millennial migration from the suburbs into the city continues, but the trend for the smarter and weirder youth to leave the region grows. The slow reverse flow of former Detroiters returning home after years in more expensive cities dwindles almost fully to a stop. The few whose family or financial circumstances require it find some consolation that at least their vote will make a bigger difference next election, if they're still there. The rest are too revolted by the cretins and ignoramuses the last one unearthed, and are too reminded by so much nonsense they hear visiting why they left. And their spouses / significant others say hell no.

Only the ignoramuses will be happy about it.

EDIT: I'm not calling the entire 46% of the voting public who voted for Trump cretins and ignoramuses. But I'm done pretending the cretins don't exist, and that people unaware of basic facts weren't a significant demographic. At least there's hope for the latter group. Even if I'm aware that calling people out on their ignorance rarely ever works.

[Bham1982]

Realistic predictions:

1. Auto industry suffers first sales/profit decline in seven years [[though remains reasonably healthy and profitable). Factory idlings increase. Idiotic White House tweets and threats shake Big 3 leadership, lower hiring/investment and increase industry uncertainty.

2. Roads continue to deteriorate, Lansing continues to bicker, and still no solution to statewide road funding crisis. Would not be surprised if state income tax were eliminated, further straining state treasury and burdening working class residents.

3. Plans are announced for former KMart/Kresge HQ on Big Beaver. Will be partially open-air, multilevel retail pavilion with heavy restaurant presence and connection via Skywalk to Somerset North.

4. Detroit [[city) continues to lose population and region continues to gain population, but both trends moderate. Auto slowdown starts to weigh on region's growth. Downtown/Midtown continue to make progress, but no major new construction projects actually break ground. Hudsons site remains in limbo. Smaller infill projects advance.

5. Detroit Public Schools enters point of no return with charters/school of choice continuing to leech students, and new administration pushing for religious school vouchers. Talk starts to percolate around how to wind down the district.

[bust]

Here's another: Gas prices continue to go up, to the benefit of the Russian economy. And to the detriment of the big 3, who even if they offer fuel-efficient vehicles, don't make enough money selling them.

[Scottathew]

Here's another: Gas prices continue to go up, to the benefit of the Russian economy. And to the detriment of the big 3, who even if they offer fuel-efficient vehicles, don't make enough money selling them.

I'm not quite sure how this will go with Trump at the helm. Republicans are anti-environment/pro-fossil fuel. So we should be seeing more domestic fossil fuel production, which should cause prices to go down.

However, Trump also seems to be a marionette operated by Vladimir Putin, so perhaps things will be done to keep prices up to benefit Russia.

[Junjie]

I'm not quite sure how this will go with Trump at the helm. Republicans are anti-environment/pro-fossil fuel. So we should be seeing more domestic fossil fuel production, which should cause prices to go down.

Not sure how much higher production can go, and prices are already way down. Thanks, Obama.

[bust]

I'm not quite sure how this will go with Trump at the helm. Republicans are anti-environment/pro-fossil fuel. So we should be seeing more domestic fossil fuel production, which should cause prices to go down.

However, Trump also seems to be a marionette operated by Vladimir Putin, so perhaps things will be done to keep prices up to benefit Russia.

I'm not sure either. But I'm sticking with my prediction.

Expensive oil wouldn't just rescue Russia's economy. It'd also bring great benefit to oil focused states [[Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Alaska, North Dakota...). It would provide an excuse for weakening protections against drilling in sensitive environmental areas. And for continuing or even expanding the use of other highly polluting fossil fuels. It would benefit the coal industry [[Wyoming, West Virginia, Kentucky, Pennsylvania...) It would provide cover for the fracking industry [[Pennsylvania, Texas, North Dakota, Colorado, Montana...). See a pattern?

Speaking of patterns, Trump's nominee for Secretary of State is the CEO of Exxon Mobil. Check how the price of Exxon Mobil stock has tracked with the price of crude oil:


https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp...I8jlmAGqvY3gBw


http://www.infomine.com/investment/metal-prices/crude-oil/all/

Do you think foreign and domestic policy under GW Bush / Cheney had any effect on the price of oil? They were anti-environment / pro-fossil fuel too, in a big way. What effect do you think US foreign and domestic policy the next four years will bring?

[Gsgeorge]

10. A skyscraper taller than the RenCen is announced for the Hudson Block

Not going to happen, but a 60 story glass covered skyscraper on the Hudson Block will do.

Don't be so dismissive, most 60+ story skyscrapers built these days can be well above 800 feet tall, because of the trend in increased floor heights, high pedestals, and open upper floors. RenCen has ceiling heights around 9ft, while most modern towers are more in the 12-18ft range... That adds up over 60+ stories.

[UofMGuy423]

Don't be so dismissive, most 60+ story skyscrapers built these days can be well above 800 feet tall, because of the trend in increased floor heights, high pedestals, and open upper floors. RenCen has ceiling heights around 9ft, while most modern towers are more in the 12-18ft range... That adds up over 60+ stories.

Exactly, the Bank of America Center in Charlotte, NC is 60 floors and 872 sq ft. I imagine if Gilbert's building is 60 floors it will be similar in height to that building [[which is pretty impressive in person).

My predictions:

construction starts on the old Statler site this Spring [[they were doing soil samples earlier this week again)

Some type of announcement is made that the UA Theater office building will be converted to apartments/condos.

[Bham1982]

So why do people think that a 60 floor office tower is a realistic idea, given that there hasn't been a tall building constructed downtown [[unless you want to count the Greektown casino) in nearly 30 years?

A 60 floor office tower would cost billions, and such buildings are basically only going up in Manhattan right now. Not sure why there would be some obvious demand for gigantic corporate edifices.

[Rock N Rye]

The tower is supposed to be high end residential, not offices. The tower also likely only takes up a small portion of the Hudson site footprint and the height probably depends on whether or not he can get tax breaks from the state.

[Bham1982]

The tower is supposed to be high end residential, not offices. The tower also likely only takes up a small portion of the Hudson site footprint and the height probably depends on whether or not he can get tax breaks from the state.

So you think there's demand for a luxury 60 floor tower, even though there's no such luxury product anywhere in Detroit, even though condos in Detroit sell for relatively modest prices, and even though few units at the Book Cadillac condos never sold out?

And you want state taxpayers to subsidize luxury residences for the 1%? Why, exactly?

[Hypestyles]

I hope for improvement in the neighborhoods.

[dtowncitylover]

I hope for improvement in the neighborhoods.

I was going to predict the impossible of the first new housing development in decades, but I wasn't sure where to put the development. And I mean a development of single family rowhousing, not Orleans Landing or Lafayette Park.

[hybridy]

FYI for all the hudsons talk, Gilbert has not acquired the garage below from the city. He has only acquired air rights. He needs the parking for his development to work but the city wants the parking revenue. Until the city gives into Dan we won't be hearing squat.

[Rock N Rye]

So you think there's demand for a luxury 60 floor tower, even though there's no such luxury product anywhere in Detroit, even though condos in Detroit sell for relatively modest prices, and even though few units at the Book Cadillac condos never sold out?

And you want state taxpayers to subsidize luxury residences for the 1%? Why, exactly?

I think Dan Gilbert wants something big and flashy on this site but cannot make it work financially, which is why he is looking for tax breaks. If there was a market for this he would not need tax breaks and he wouldn't need to keep delaying construction.

[hybridy]

I think Dan Gilbert wants something big and flashy on this site but cannot make it work financially, which is why he is looking for tax breaks. If there was a market for this he would not need tax breaks and he wouldn't need to keep delaying construction.

what many may not know is the hang up for every downtown residential project is the parking component. no one in detroit is renting or buying luxury housing without assigned and secured parking. its a huge income generator. structured parking already exists on the site that detroit spent $30M to create [[including hudsons demo). they arent just giving up that revenue to get something built-so the site sits idle. we all know how lucurative parking is downtown - ex. ren cen parking deck selling for $55M. i acknowledge there are a myriad of other issues with the development performa. tax incentives being #1, but the parking is the sticking point. the tax break is likely for some civic space that isnt determined. otherwise the basic program is already there [[retail, office + housing).

[ParisianLesion]

what many may not know is the hang up for every downtown residential project is the parking component. no one in detroit is renting or buying luxury housing without assigned and secured parking. its a huge income generator. structured parking already exists on the site that detroit spent $30M to create [[including hudsons demo). they arent just giving up that revenue to get something built-so the site sits idle. we all know how lucurative parking is downtown - ex. ren cen parking deck selling for $55M. i acknowledge there are a myriad of other issues with the development performa. tax incentives being #1, but the parking is the sticking point. the tax break is likely for some civic space that isnt determined. otherwise the basic program is already there [[retail, office + housing).

The sale of the parking garage for $15M as a component of the development deal was finalized and well publicized back in April:

https://www.google.com/amp/detroit.c...ndroid-verizon

[ParisianLesion]

So why do people think that a 60 floor office tower is a realistic idea, given that there hasn't been a tall building constructed downtown [[unless you want to count the Greektown casino) in nearly 30 years?

A 60 floor office tower would cost billions, and such buildings are basically only going up in Manhattan right now. Not sure why there would be some obvious demand for gigantic corporate edifices.

And Miami, Boston, San Francisco, Seattle, Los Angeles, Philadelphia

Just for fun, you should go shopping for a mid-to-high end residence in the CBD and surrounding hot nabes. You'd come away with a better understanding of the level of demand. And plan to offer more than ask with cash.

[Zozo]

There are 30-50 story buildings going up all over Texas. I can think of 8 such buildings in Houston alone, and most are office buildings, as opposed to residential. A building that size in Detroit seems far-fetched, but look how much has changed in just the last four years. It's certainly a possibility.

[Rock N Rye]

Dan Gilbert just claimed there will be 10-15 buildings over 25 stories constructed downtown in the next 5-7 years. Seems unlikely when we have been waiting about 7 years now for nothing but hype to happen with the Hudson site.