Metro home sales, prices hit 10-year high - MI unemployment at 4.7%

[Lowell]

Is this the same doomsday Detroit and Michigan of 2007-8?

"Metro Detroit saw record median home sale prices in May, while the number of sales reached a 10-year high, in the latest year-over-year figures released Thursday.

Median home and condominium sales jumped 8 percent and sale prices increased 3.8 percent in Wayne, Oakland, Macomb and Livingston counties...

Wayne County had the largest increase with a 9.8 percent bump from 1,534 homes and condos sold in May 2015 to 1,685 last month, trailed by Macomb County's 8.4 percent increase from 1,016 a year ago to 1,101, according to Realcomp."
http://www.crainsdetroit.com/article...rd-high-in-may

I wonder how much of that^ is driven by downtown/green zone sales.

"Michigan's jobless rate dipped in May to 4.7 percent, the lowest since March 2001.

The state's seasonally adjusted rate was one-tenth of a percentage point below the 4.8 percent rate in April, the state reported Wednesday.

The 4.7 percent jobless rate matches the national rate."
http://www.crainsdetroit.com/article...percent-in-may

[hybridy]

hopefully not. all of those sales are to people with high credit 700+...banks are no longer underwriting NINA-verified financing [[no income, no asset) nor the ARM. properties in detroit's stable neighborhoods are accepting offers same week they're listed. also, my company has grown 20-30% in last 3 years with many new hires coming from out of state.

you have to remember there are a lot of millennials reaching/at home buying age. there is a lot of appetite out there.

i do feel there isn't enough move-in ready/new construction in the $150k-250k range though.

[Armin]

hopefully not. all of those sales are to people with high credit 700+...banks are no longer underwriting NINA-verified financing [[no income, no asset) nor the ARM. properties in detroit's stable neighborhoods are accepting offers same week they're listed. also, my company has grown 20-30% in last 3 years with many new hires coming from out of state.

you have to remember there are a lot of millennials reaching/at home buying age. there is a lot of appetite out there.

i do feel there isn't enough move-in ready/new construction in the $150k-250k range though.

you're wrong. I've been in mortgages for 15 years. Most of the big banks and lenders allow 580 credit scores and above [[preferably 620+), and ARMS are still very common. There are brokers out there who work with independent investors that still do stated income loans.

[hybridy]

you're wrong. I've been in mortgages for 15 years. Most of the big banks and lenders allow 580 credit scores and above [[preferably 620+), and ARMS are still very common. There are brokers out there who work with independent investors that still do stated income loans.

ur 580s must have great debt ratios...guess they're all doctors avg FICO for non-FHA, conventional financing is 752...
http://www.interest.com/fha-loans/ne...t-an-fha-loan/

[belleislerunner]

Singing praises to Governor Rick Snyder. Best governor we've ever had!!

[bust]

Praises to President Obama, and not just for ensuring Detroit and its automakers didn't collapse when so many others said they should. Best president in my lifetime!

[belleislerunner]

I actually think it was the perfect trio.

You had a Democratic mayor who could pull strings with the Democratic president to get federal funds for blight removal.

You had a Republican governor who didn't care about perceived popularity and wanted to fix Detroit via bankruptcy working with a Detroit mayor who had a solid work relationship with each other.

It's rare and unlikely uncommon to find a governor, mayor and president work so well together on issues to make Detroit better for everyone. A perfect example of not having all your eggs in one political basket.

[Wheels]

Praises to President Obama, and not just for ensuring Detroit and its automakers didn't collapse when so many others said they should. Best president in my lifetime!

You must be less then 8 years old!

[DetroiterOnTheWestCoast]

You must be less then 8 years old!

Bring back "W". We need more economic collapses and unfunded, unfounded wars!

[Bigdd]

ACTUAL unemployment for Michigan is about 11%.

The various governments [[Federal especially) like to ignore more than half of the unemployed,.. so as to make their numbers look better.

So instead of using U6 as they always had,.. they now use U3, which ignores people who have simply given up looking,.. and ignores people who are only working one 8 hour shift a week at minimum wage,.. and ignores people whose unemployment ran out, etc, etc. [[Yes,.. if you go on unemployment and it runs out,.. and you still haven't found a job,.. they don't count you as unemployed any more).

There's also the ever increasing push to get people to go to college. Even 1/2 wits for whom college won't help. The reason for that is three-fold. They can fill your head full of propaganda,.. they can get you into lots of debt debt [[which makes their banker friends happy),.. and college attendees don't count as unemployed. Wins all around !

Through the first quarter of 2016,.. Michigan had a U3 of 5.2%,.. but the real number [[U6) was 11.2% still. Also,.. the housing market will likely take a big downturn next Summer,.. so I expect that number to go up a bit.

[bust]

You must be less then 8 years old!

Been around since Nixon.

[313WX]

ACTUAL unemployment for Michigan is about 11%.

The various governments [[Federal especially) like to ignore more than half of the unemployed,.. so as to make their numbers look better.

So instead of using U6 as they always had,.. they now use U3, which ignores people who have simply given up looking,.. and ignores people who are only working one 8 hour shift a week at minimum wage,.. and ignores people whose unemployment ran out, etc, etc. [[Yes,.. if you go on unemployment and it runs out,.. and you still haven't found a job,.. they don't count you as unemployed any more).

There's also the ever increasing push to get people to go to college. Even 1/2 wits for whom college won't help. The reason for that is three-fold. They can fill your head full of propaganda,.. they can get you into lots of debt debt [[which makes their banker friends happy),.. and college attendees don't count as unemployed. Wins all around !

Through the first quarter of 2016,.. Michigan had a U3 of 5.2%,.. but the real number [[U6) was 11.2% still. Also,.. the housing market will likely take a big downturn next Summer,.. so I expect that number to go up a bit.

Also buried in another article about the same subject:

http://www.freep.com/story/money/bus...ring/85936640/

The rate edged downward one tenth of a percentage point because of a small decline in the size of Michigan's workforce rather than by adding new jobs. In a separate report, the state's Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives reported that statewide employers shed a net 13,000 jobs in May, led by big declines in manufacturing and the leisure and hospitality services sector.

Also, I should mention not only have I noticed fewer new job postings since the end of 2015, but even my circle within the Auto Industry has noticed work is slowing down. Hopefully the poor sales numbers we've had at the start of this year [[in comparison to 2015) don't mean the boom is over and we're at the start of a downturn, but the signs aren't all that encouraging.

But never mind that, just focus on the sunshine and roses!!!

[401don]

Also buried in another article about the same subject:http://www.freep.com/story/money/bus...ring/85936640/Also, I should mention not only have I noticed fewer new job postings since the end of 2015, but even my circle within the Auto Industry has noticed work is slowing down. Hopefully the poor sales numbers we've had at the start of this year [[in comparison to 2015) don't mean the boom is over and we're at the start of a downturn, but the signs aren't all that encouraging.But never mind that, just focus on the sunshine and roses!!!

Isn't the 84 month loan the definition of shooting yourself in the foot?

[Bham1982]

ACTUAL unemployment for Michigan is about 11%.

The various governments [[Federal especially) like to ignore more than half of the unemployed,.. so as to make their numbers look better.

You expect us to believe you, a random internet dude, over the army of PhDs and their fact-checking auditors at the Department of Labor? LOL.

The unemployment rate is exactly as released. There's no one posting on DYes who has the resources to challenge their findings.

And people actually doing the hiring know that there's a worker shortage. We have tons of open positions, but no qualified candidates. Very tough to get outsiders to come to MI.

[mwilbert]

ACTUAL unemployment for Michigan is about 11%.

The various governments [[Federal especially) like to ignore more than half of the unemployed,.. so as to make their numbers look better.

So instead of using U6 as they always had,.. they now use U3, which ignores people who have simply given up looking,.. and ignores people who are only working one 8 hour shift a week at minimum wage,.. and ignores people whose unemployment ran out, etc, etc. [[Yes,.. if you go on unemployment and it runs out,.. and you still haven't found a job,.. they don't count you as unemployed any more).

There's also the ever increasing push to get people to go to college. Even 1/2 wits for whom college won't help. The reason for that is three-fold. They can fill your head full of propaganda,.. they can get you into lots of debt debt [[which makes their banker friends happy),.. and college attendees don't count as unemployed. Wins all around !

Through the first quarter of 2016,.. Michigan had a U3 of 5.2%,.. but the real number [[U6) was 11.2% still. Also,.. the housing market will likely take a big downturn next Summer,.. so I expect that number to go up a bit.

You are mistaken in saying there has been a change from reporting unemployment based on U3 vs U6. The reported unemployment rate has been the U3 rate for a really long time [[over 100 years, I think) although it wasn't always called the U3 rate. The U6 rate wasn't calculated until 1994, and has never been the reported employment rate. Neither number is more "real" than then other--they are simply different ways of looking at unemployment, and the U6 rate is pretty much always somewhere between 150% and 200% of the U3 rate. You are, of course, entitled to your opinion as to which better represents the state of the labor market, but U6 unemployment now is low relative to its historic levels in Michigan.

And as long as I'm here, I'm curious on what basis you think there will be a housing downturn next summer? I'm not saying it couldn't happen, but I see no sign of this at the moment--housing starts are just starting to strengthen a bit, and interest rates are unlikely to rise much by then.

[archfan]

The Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates U1 through U6: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

[renf]

Belleislerunner's comments are right on! For the first time in ages, we have a mayor, a governor and a federal administration working together. And the current prosperity of the vehicle industry sure helps.

[Cincinnati_Kid]

Singing praises to Governor Rick Snyder. Best governor we've ever had!!

I surely hope this is sarcasm, because all you have to do is say Flint.....

[Cincinnati_Kid]

Also, I should mention not only have I noticed fewer new job postings since the end of 2015, but even my circle within the Auto Industry has noticed work is slowing down. Hopefully the poor sales numbers we've had at the start of this year [[in comparison to 2015) don't mean the boom is over and we're at the start of a downturn, but the signs aren't all that encouraging.

Analysts already predicting a slow down in sales.

http://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/retail/article/After-records-auto-sales-head-downward-in-16-6769751.php

[Bigdd]

You expect us to believe you, a random internet dude, over the army of PhDs and their fact-checking auditors at the Department of Labor? LOL.

The unemployment rate is exactly as released. There's no one posting on DYes who has the resources to challenge their findings.

And people actually doing the hiring know that there's a worker shortage. We have tons of open positions, but no qualified candidates. Very tough to get outsiders to come to MI.

The Department of Labor IS WHERE I got the number from. Take a second and look it up.


U3 [[phony Unemployment Rate,.. but declared by the government as "Official") is the same as ACTUAL U6 employment,.. BUT

-MINUS the people who gave up looking [[discouraged workers),..

-MINUS the people who are not working,.. but would like to,.. and have at least looked in the last year [[Persons marginally attached to the labor force),.. and

-MINUS People who are working perhaps one part time shift a week, at minimum wage. [[Persons employed part time for economic reasons).


Pretty much just what I said in my post above.

Here,... I'll save you the 5 seconds it would take to Google their website.
http://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2015/une...nuary-2015.htm


The headline states;
Unemployment rate 5.7 percent in January 2015; U-6 measure was 11.3 percent

That's nationally,.. Michigan is within a tenth of both of those numbers.

[Bigdd]

You are mistaken in saying there has been a change from reporting unemployment based on U3 vs U6. The reported unemployment rate has been the U3 rate for a really long time [[over 100 years, I think) although it wasn't always called the U3 rate. The U6 rate wasn't calculated until 1994, and has never been the reported employment rate. Neither number is more "real" than then other--they are simply different ways of looking at unemployment, and the U6 rate is pretty much always somewhere between 150% and 200% of the U3 rate. You are, of course, entitled to your opinion as to which better represents the state of the labor market,........

Yes,. there was no need for U6 before then because they hadn't yet broken out those other groups.

You remove a bunch of groups of unemployed from U3,.. and now you need to create U4, U5 and U6 to get the whole picture.

If you're EXTREMELY dishonest [[like government),.. you continue to use U3 like it's the same U3.

U6 is therefore quite similar to U3 from 80 years ago no ?

Actual unemployment is those that are of employment age and should be working and would even "like" to be working,.. but can't find a job because they lack the education, motivation or job opportunity.

I'm an employer that is looking for office help,.. but they need to show up on time,. be able to read,...and be able to add numbers together etc. And that's REALLY hard to find in Detroit.

The Chase bank next door has gone so far as to install machines that handle all the cash,.. so they can hire tellers that literally can't add, subtract of multiply. NOT KIDDING. The teller yesterday stared at the cash like it was from outer space.. Couldn't figure out what they needed to enter in the computer when they were given four one-hundred dollar bills. The other day a different teller had to get out their Iphone to figure out how much 25, twenty-dollar bills was.

They've given up on finding anyone that can pass a grade-school math test,.. so they're preparing to fully automate like MacDonald's and Wendy's are.

[bust]

Bigdd, you have a point when you discuss whether U-3 or U-6 is a better measure of unemployment. I'd argue that since U-6 includes part-time workers that it's an overestimation, and that U-4 or U-5 is probably the best gauge. But that's debatable.

In any case, the data you're using is a year and a half old, and things have improved a lot since then. I'm not sure why you ignored it, but archfan posted national figures for the full range of un/employed classifications from May 2016:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

National U-3 unemployment stood at 4.5%, U-4 at 4.9%, U-5 at 5.6%, and U-6 at 9.4%.

Here's another interesting set of data from the BLS -- changes in unemplyment rates per city, comparing March 2015 and March 2016:

http://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2016/une...april-2016.htm

Detroit's went from 5.5% to 4.5%, dropping more than 18%. [[Click the "View Chart Data" link to see the specifics.)

Meanwhile, regarding bank tellers, do you have any idea how little banks pay bank tellers?

JP Morgan Chase earned $5.5 Billion in just the first quarter this year.

https://www.jpmorganchase.com/corpor...ss_Release.pdf

The average bank teller wage is $10.87 per hour.

http://www.payscale.com/research/US/...er/Hourly_Rate

What quality of employee do you expect to attract at that wage when you can make at least twice that much mowing lawns?

[Bigdd]

Bigdd, you have a point when you discuss whether U-3 or U-6 is a better measure of unemployment. I'd argue that since U-6 includes part-time workers that it's an overestimation, and that U-4 or U-5 is probably the best gauge. But that's debatable.

In any case, the data you're using is a year and a half old, and things have improved a lot since then. I'm not sure why you ignored it, but archfan posted national figures for the full range of un/employed classifications from May 2016:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm

National U-3 unemployment stood at 4.5%, U-4 at 4.9%, U-5 at 5.6%, and U-6 at 9.4%.

Here's another interesting set of data from the BLS -- changes in unemplyment rates per city, comparing March 2015 and March 2016:

http://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2016/une...april-2016.htm

Detroit's went from 5.5% to 4.5%, dropping more than 18%. [[Click the "View Chart Data" link to see the specifics.)

Meanwhile, regarding bank tellers, do you have any idea how little banks pay bank tellers?

JP Morgan Chase earned $5.5 Billion in just the first quarter this year.

https://www.jpmorganchase.com/corpor...ss_Release.pdf

The average bank teller wage is $10.87 per hour.

http://www.payscale.com/research/US/...er/Hourly_Rate

What quality of employee do you expect to attract at that wage when you can make at least twice that much mowing lawns?

My bad on the old link. The data I used in the first post was up to date as of the first quarter of '16. And was a yearly average from the end of the first quarter of '15 to the first quarter of '16. [[Not monthly numbers)

I only spent 10 seconds this time around finding a link for the person I was responding to.

I also agree on it being debatable on which to use,.. 4, 5 or 6. I think it's somewhere between 5 and 6. I think it would be a mistake to TOTALLY ignore those working just 8-16 hours a week because that's all they can find. Perhaps add 1/3 of the extra number from 6 onto 5? Either way,.. there's a lot more than 4 something percent. And Obamacare is pushing the partially employed number up ever higher as companies try to dodge the massive and quickly rising cost of paying for healthcare for full-timers. Companies and cities with unions know this all too well. They were strong-armed into agreeing to pay for healthcare,.. then over the last 20 some years healthcare has risen at more than 8 times inflation,.. and it's crusing large manufacturing and city budgets.

I hear you on the teller pay also. What makes it so hard also is that they can almost make that sitting at home and waiting for a government check. My biggest take-away from that [[and my own hiring experiences) is how poorly prepared most Detroiters are for the working world,.. or for that matter,.. for raising children,. or even just shopping at Kroger. If you can hardly read,..and can't count,... how do you plan to live?

[ddaydetroit]

I own a shop and deal with a lot of other shop owners our biggest problem is finding good help yes many people may still be out of work but for the most part the people that want a job and have good work habits already have jobs.
It takes about 6 months to a year for someone to really learn the trade to where they can work with out supervision I'm sorry but many of the resumes I look at are dismal and if you have gone through 10 jobs in ten years I do not want you sometimes it takes us 6 months to fill a position. We pay excellent have health insurance and a 401K that we match. I am lucky that we have a full crew right now [[22 people) but when we lose or fire someone I spend days looking for good help with ads on craigslist, monster, indeed and a sign in front of my building

[Cincinnati_Kid]

^^ What kind of shop do you own, if you don't mind me asking?