Tigers: Predict The Win Total [[2016 Regular Season)

**emu steve** · March-01-16, 05:57 PM

I'll predict 85.5 [[so I can 'kind of be' right if it is 85 or 86.

I have no idea what the Vegas over/under line is, but I'd think close to 85 - 86 wins.

**mtburb** · March-01-16, 06:15 PM

Is a 40-or-41-win season possible?

**MikeyinBrooklyn** · March-01-16, 06:30 PM

114. Gonna be a great year. 2 no-hitters, Cy Young winner, Pennant and a WS Sweep. You heard it here first.

**emu steve** · March-01-16, 06:48 PM

Originally Posted by mtburb

Is a 40-or-41-win season possible?

Yes, on July 4.

**gumby** · March-01-16, 11:05 PM

94 or 95 wins

**softailrider** · March-02-16, 02:25 AM

Originally Posted by gumby

94 or 95 wins

That seems like a lot for this team. There's a lot up in the air with key players recovering from injuries. I'm going to say 88 wins. I just hope they're in the race all the way through the season.

**emu steve** · March-02-16, 06:11 AM

Originally Posted by softailrider

That seems like a lot for this team. There's a lot up in the air with key players recovering from injuries. I'm going to say 88 wins. I just hope they're in the race all the way through the season.

I'll try to find the article but USA Today had Tigers at 82 Ws which seems TOO low.

Tigers seem more likely to surprise on the 'upside' than on the 'downside.'

**mikeg19** · March-02-16, 08:15 AM

Assuming there are no major injuries and the pitching staff is ok, I'll go 87. Just too many what if's on this team.

**401don** · March-02-16, 08:52 AM

87-88 sounds about right. Could be a lot more frustrating games to watch this yr. with a team near the top of the league in avg., on-base % & slugging but also leading the league in strikeouts and hitting into double plays. At least the bullpen should be better.

**sirrealone** · March-02-16, 03:13 PM

Maybe overly pessimistic but I see this as an 80-82 win team.

The have no true ace, three number 2-3 pitchers and what I'd consider two number 5 pitchers. I just don't have confidence in the rotation.

Meaning that while the bullpen looks improved, they might be playing with fewer leads if the rotation is what it looks like on paper, which I define as average.

Top four of the lineup looks good, but after that a lot of questions. V-Mart says he was hurt last year and fine this year, but didn't he say he was all but fine last year? McCann is an improvement over Avila but the trio of Castellanos, Igleasis, and the Gose/Maybin tandem will not come up as all that scary.

Still not convinced on Ausmus. A good manager needs to know how to manage to the numbers, but also know when to mix in going with his gut. So far, he either doesn't trust his gut or really don't have that feel, and either way, it's left open some holes.

It's definitely a different team than last year, but I'm not all that convinced that it's a much better team. I'd love to be proven wrong, though.

**gumby** · March-02-16, 07:45 PM

Originally Posted by softailrider

That seems like a lot for this team. There's a lot up in the air with key players recovering from injuries. I'm going to say 88 wins. I just hope they're in the race all the way through the season.

I'm a glass half full guy. I believe that the injury bug is finally gone and Jv and Victor will be back to form. I am encouraged by the bullpen signings and believe that Castallanos and McCann will continue to improve.

**cassique** · March-03-16, 09:19 AM

94 wins. Going to be a great year. Watched the game yesterday on Fox Sports Detroit and it was awesome to see baseball back.

**erikd** · March-04-16, 02:38 AM

Originally Posted by sirrealone

Maybe overly pessimistic but I see this as an 80-82 win team.

The have no true ace, three number 2-3 pitchers and what I'd consider two number 5 pitchers. I just don't have confidence in the rotation.

Meaning that while the bullpen looks improved, they might be playing with fewer leads if the rotation is what it looks like on paper, which I define as average.

Top four of the lineup looks good, but after that a lot of questions. V-Mart says he was hurt last year and fine this year, but didn't he say he was all but fine last year? McCann is an improvement over Avila but the trio of Castellanos, Igleasis, and the Gose/Maybin tandem will not come up as all that scary.

Still not convinced on Ausmus. A good manager needs to know how to manage to the numbers, but also know when to mix in going with his gut. So far, he either doesn't trust his gut or really don't have that feel, and either way, it's left open some holes.

It's definitely a different team than last year, but I'm not all that convinced that it's a much better team. I'd love to be proven wrong, though.

The 2016 Tigers should be much better than the 2015 team, which was plagued with injuries to key players, a very weak bullpen, and a lack of depth in starting pitching. Even with all of those issues, the team still hung around .500 until they traded away Soria, Price, and Cespedes, after which they completely fell apart.

It is possible that the Tigers could be plagued by numerous key injuries once again in 2016, but that is not likely to happen again this year. The injury-riddled 2015 Tigers were reminiscent of the 2008 Tigers and the 2014 Texas Rangers, both who had significant down years due to injury issues, and then bounced back the following year after getting healthy.

The rotation is certainly not the Cy Young-filled group that the Tigers have been featuring over the last 5-10 years, but the same can be said about every other team in the AL this year. The Indians probably have the best rotation in the league, but they don't have much else. The same goes for the Rays, who finished 1st in starting pitching ERA last year, while finishing 10th in the only important category, which is team wins and losses.
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In the modern American League, starting pitching is not nearly as important as it used to be, and is the most over-rated aspect of a team. The strength of starting pitching no longer has a strong correlation with the overall success of a team in the AL. In fact, the there was a strong negative correlation between the quality of a team's starting pitching, and the amount of games actually won by a team.

In 2015, the Royals won the most games in the AL, while finishing 12th in starting pitcher ERA. The Jays won the second most games, and finished 5th in SP ERA. The Rangers won the 3rd most games, and finished 11th in SP ERA. The Yankees finished 4th in wins, and 10th in SP ERA.

Conversely, the teams with the best starting pitching in the 2015 AL tended to finish with poor records. The Rays were 1st in starting pitching ERA, and 10th in wins. The Astros were 2nd in SP ERA, and 5th in wins. The A's were 3rd in SP ERA, and finished dead last [[15th) in wins. The Indians were 4th in SP ERA, and tied for 8th in wins.
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Due to the increasingly rigid rotation schedules, pitch counts, and innings limits that are placed on starting pitchers, coupled with their skyrocketing salaries, they often wind up being underutilized and over-valued, which ultimately reduces their actual impact on the amount of games won and lost by the team.

Think of how many times an ace starter pitches against a bad team, while a 4 or 5 starter pitches against a good team, or a strong division rival, just a few days later. Think of how many times an ace starter continues to pitch in a blowout game, for no reason other than to maintain his rhythm of 100 pitches every 5 days.

Contrast that to how relief pitchers are used... Top-tier relief pitchers are used almost exclusively in high-leverage situations, which may be every other day, three days in a row, or not at all for 3-4 days. There are infrequent situations when a top-tier relief pitcher will throw an inning if he hasn't pitched in a few days, but that is the exception.

The same goes with position players. Position players often will be played and rested based on situational criteria, such as lefty/righty matchups, stats against the opposing pitcher, game situations [[pinch hitting, pinch running, defensive substitutions), and not just based on some arbitrary schedule of a certain frequency and limit of at-bats, innings played, etc.
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In summary, I think that the Tigers will be much improved over last year. I think the starting pitching should actually be pretty decent [[Verlander and Zimmerman are a very good 1-2), and the rest of the rotation should be good enough [[and deep enough) to eat innings and keep games in reach for the offense to score enough to win. I don't see a repeat of 2015, when the Tigers were bringing up AA spot starters, and picking up pitchers off the waiver wire, just to have enough players to field a team.

A nice comeback year from Sanchez, and/or a solid performance from one of the kids could make the difference between an average/decent rotation and a good one. There is also the strong possibility that if the Tigers are one starter away from a serious playoff run, they will make a trade at the deadline, so all is not lost if the back end of the rotation winds up needing a shot in the arm.

The AL doesn't really have a strong powerhouse team coming into 2016. All of the best major league teams [[at least on paper) are in the NL, while the AL has a large number of good teams that still have a few question marks and weak spots, just like the Tigers.
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Given all of that, I concur with a number of other posters who are predicting mid to upper 80s in the win column. This team has too much talent to finish below .500, unless they have a bunch of injuries and bad luck again, but they don't look like a powerhouse that will dominate the league and run off 95-100 wins either.

It should be a fun baseball season in Detroit. Go Tigers!

**401don** · March-04-16, 08:52 AM

erik, I agree that if Cabrera & Martinez stay healthy this team will win 87-88+, which means they will fight for the division. This same prediction would be 95 wins if the rest of the division top to bottom wasn't so much better now. There are no 60 win teams in the Central this yr.

**Lowell** · March-04-16, 06:25 PM

They are better but also older so, like 401don mentions, health will determine their fate. I see where Cameron Maybin is already gone for 4-6 weeks. Sanchez is already aching and always seems to end up on the DL.

Last year they lost Nathan and V Martinez out the chute. Not sure if Nathan would have mattered but it set the mold for the bullpen disaster.

What is usually needed to push a team into contention is for some rookie to emerge or some young guy to have a sensational break-out year. There is a lot of potential for that -- Castellanos, Iglesias, McCann, Norris and Gose could all fit that role.

If there are no major injuries 92. More likely and my prediction 87. And maybe making the playoffs as the wildcard bar should be low. Kansas City to repeat.

**Oddz313** · March-04-16, 08:06 PM

87 wins, a birth to the one and done Wild card game

**ggores** · March-05-16, 11:38 AM

Injury-plagued and b-ball players usually do not become healthier or more resilient with age. The organization made the token off-season deals which, to me, only glosses the look of the team. Ausmus is barely competent to manage a major league ball club. But, predictions are fun and I love them Tigers!

I suggest a 77 win season, or whatever their record was in 1993.