Has Detroit Bottomed out Yet?

[MicrosoftFan]

It seems like everyday on the news you hear that Detroit is turning a new leaf in development but then it's followed up with serial carjackers and then a rundown of everything that's wrong with the city. I'm wondering in terms of population, blight, and out-migration- has Detroit Bottomed out yet? Is Detroit as low as it can go?

[FormerEastsider]

[QUOTE=MicrosoftFan;491658]It seems like everyday on the news you hear that Detroit is turning a new leaf in development but then it's followed up with serial carjackers and then a rundown of everything that's wrong with the city. I'm wondering in terms of population, blight, and out-migration- has Detroit Bottomed out yet? Is Detroit as low as it can go?[/Q

Has Detroit Bottomed Out? What measuring tool would one use to make that determination?

[313WX]

As a whole, no.

I fully expect Detroit to be near or below 500,000 by 2020. Quite a few people who weren't accounted for in the 2010 left during the 2012-2014 bankruptcy/Bing years, and bleeding likely is still continuing with crime remaining high, poorer neighborhood lighting, still abysmal schools and still very few decent paying jobs.

[detroitsgwenivere]

I'm starting to see more people who had moved to Detroit maybe 5 years ago leaving for greener pastures. The ones who have opened a business or have no children tend to stick around, while the ones who struggle with employment or have children leave quicker. Just an observation.

[TTime]

It seems like everyday on the news you hear that Detroit is turning a new leaf in development but then it's followed up with serial carjackers and then a rundown of everything that's wrong with the city. I'm wondering in terms of population, blight, and out-migration- has Detroit Bottomed out yet? Is Detroit as low as it can go?

Anyone who says they know the answer to this question is probably a liar but if I had to guess I'd say the population falls a little more and the neighborhoods stay shitty for at least a few decades. Oh and one thing I know for sure is that people will say Downtown and Midtown are thriving...ha.

[Cincinnati_Kid]

These car-jackings are frightening, day or night. It's sad commentary that you can't stop at a gas station or store without worrying about getting jacked or robbed. You give these hoodlums what they want, and they shoot you anyway.

[rex]

It still a mess but Detroit has started to turn the corner. Homicide is up across the country in many big cities but we appear to be on track to close the year around or beneath last years murder count and sub 300. Now is 300 murders something to be happy about? Absolutely not. Its the only statistic that the police cant sweep under the rug. When murder rates are consistent and every other category of crime goes down year over year i tend to think they're full of shit. Murder rate here is still among the highest in the country but atleast it didn't spike this year like Milwaukee, DC, Baltimore, Chicago, etc. Population will probably continue to slide and the remaining housing stock across the city is in bad shape. Old homes and people without much money will have this result. I would be surprised if Detroit had adequate housing left for a million people. I don't think it does. If the city went thru and inspected every dwelling in town i wonder how many would pass for fit to be lived in. I wonder how many people that would comfortably shelter. In terms of blight no matter how fast they tear shit down it isnt a static number. Next year there will be more blight. We will have torn some down but houses go unoccupied. Scrappers come in, strip the home of metal and fixtures and they are no longer viable or habitable. They may not have been in great shape before the metal came out and it would cost more to fix than it would be worth after restoration.
Do you live in SE michigan or Detroit OP?

[mtburb]

Before you know it, Grand Rapids will become the state's largest city by 2020.

[Johnnny5]

Downtown and a few select neighborhoods have already been at the bottom and are on their way to something better. The majority of the city is still going downhill, just not as fast as it was a few years ago.

One issue that probably wont be as big of a deal in the immediate future is scrapping. The price of scrap metals has fallen off a cliff in the last year. Even for those scumbags that were stealing it, there's probably still not enough money in it to bother with steel and aluminum. Copper still has some value so that may continue, but the draw for brazen thefts of the past few years is gone.

[jlnascar]

I also have to say no. First responders attacks, low police pay, abundant derelict housing , low population, poor city services and that is only touching the surface. Detroit has a long way to go.

[MicrosoftFan]

Do you live in SE michigan or Detroit OP?

SE Michigan, more specifically Grosse Isle.

[MicrosoftFan]

Before you know it, Grand Rapids will become the state's largest city by 2020.

Or Sterling Heights.

[rex]

Downtown and a few select neighborhoods have already been at the bottom and are on their way to something better. The majority of the city is still going downhill, just not as fast as it was a few years ago.

One issue that probably wont be as big of a deal in the immediate future is scrapping. The price of scrap metals has fallen off a cliff in the last year. Even for those scumbags that were stealing it, there's probably still not enough money in it to bother with steel and aluminum. Copper still has some value so that may continue, but the draw for brazen thefts of the past few years is gone.

The fact that scrap has fallen off doesn't provide any additional opportunities for the truly desperate. Only means they need more scrap or to do something worse to get money. Lets assume they either cant or wont just "get a job"

[TTime]

Before you know it, Grand Rapids will become the state's largest city by 2020.

I think the timing of 2020 is a little aggressive but it seems inevitable that GR is on the way to being the largest city in the state population wise sometime in the next 25 years or so. As far as vibrant downtowns go, it's already on par with Detroit or beyond it depending on the event of the day and who you ask.

[casscorridor]

There can be no strong Michigan without a strong Detroit.

This is something Michigan's leaders refuse to accept.

Yes, Greater Detroit was thriving while the City was in decline, but now the whole region is in decline, as is the state, the only state to decrease in population in the last census. There is no reason for the decline to halt as many other regions are much better positioned to absorb new population migrations.

The turn-around program should be forming a strong, centralized Metropolitan government [[Mayor for all of Metro Detroit) with localized governments [[local mayors and councils) remaining and handling localized functions. Taxes should be generated by the entire region for the entire region, with a massive new investment into infrastructure [[chiefly transport) that will jumpstart economic development.

[Crumbled_pavement]

There can be no strong Michigan without a strong Detroit.

Absolutely true. Bye bye strong Michigan. It was great while it lasted.

[313WX]

BTW, Detroit better pray Gilbert's empire never collapses. Otherwise, even downtown will be screwed.

[Richard]

From a strictly observation aspect and looking at the city in the big picture of things,I think it has bottomed out or actually did a few years back.

The difference is back then there was really no hope but now the leadership is in place and the systems that were lacking before are now in place.Providing some hope anyways.

It was the first step needed to stop the bleeding and now it becomes applying the stitches,without that strong support system there was really no need to move forward.

But it was only one hurdle with many many more to go,I think you guys sometimes need to step back and appreciate how far the city has come in a few short years,even though it does not seem like it at times but if you look at the big picture it has been a hell of a big leap from what it was,and it did not happen because of one or two people,it took a city to change,it is still rough but you still deserve a kudos for sticking it out and fighting for it.

Real estate is still bottom because there is so much of it out there but I am thinking that part will start picking up next year,and it will not sell cheaper then it did this year,the rest of the country is also in a recession of sorts and will be until the election uncertainty is over with.

[Richard]

BTW, Detroit better pray Gilbert's empire never collapses. Otherwise, even downtown will be screwed.

You think he is to big to fail? there are little glimmers of hope with some diversifying going on though.

[Johnnny5]

The fact that scrap has fallen off doesn't provide any additional opportunities for the truly desperate. Only means they need more scrap or to do something worse to get money. Lets assume they either cant or wont just "get a job"

I didn't say it would disappear entirely, just be far less of an issue. There's always been desperate people, but illegal scrapping wasn't such a widespread problem until the prices hit record highs. It was a risk vs reward scenario, now it just won't be worth the risk for most people.

[Dan Wesson]

No.

For that matter many cities and states are slowly circling the drain. It's the national and global economy. Most people are like frogs sitting in water gradually getting hotter and hotter. The real shit ain't hit the fan yet. Crushing debt, stagnating diminishing purchasing power, overt inflation of taxes plus stealth inflation everywhere else.

Desperate people take desperate measures.

Disenfranchised young people will act out in extremely unproductive and deadly ways. We are seeing this happen now. Calling it mental health issues or sociopathic behavior is a diversion of the real problem. These young people see no future...

[Hamtragedy]

No. Working all over town, just not downtown, I see: struggling yet "stable" neighborhoods still left to fend for themselves, writing their own proposals and asking for grants for any type of funding, and despite home prices seeing modest increases, are still roughly at early 1990s prices [[ie. Grandmont); desperate neighborhoods not hanging on, where even since last fall, more vacant houses quickly stripped and now worthless [[ie the Boulevard nearer the river E and W); decimated neighborhoods where the burning never seems to cease [[ie large portions of the lower east side, upper east side, anywhere along Grand river up to Greenfield, along Fenkell, Mack, Schoolcraft, Livernois south of Jeffries, Whittier, Ryan, Van Dyke n of Indian Village, anywhere along McGraw from Lonyo to 12th, the Boulevard not near the river, etc, etc, etc); commercial frontage with even more deterioration in the last year, [[see previous examples).

The estimated 70,000 vacant structure numbers I don't see going down any time soon, because as quickly as they tear down 4000 houses, another 80% of the 5000 plus fire runs a year are suspicious, even if they don't burn down the first time.

[ParisianLesion]

Before you know it, Grand Rapids will become the state's largest city by 2020.

Ha. I remember people saying this 20 years ago. Despite perceptions, Grand Rapids proper population has remained pretty much the same - around 190k for the past 25 years. I grew up over there and still spend plenty of time there. You can still drive 10-15 minutes and you're in corn fields. No, there is not more activity in downtown GR than in Detroit, especially not anymore. If you believe that then you don't spend much time in downtown/Midtown/Corktown/etc. Detroit lately. I'm a city kid and even though GR is a beautiful, somewhat thriving city, it's not hard to get bored there. And good luck meeting a women unless you're young 20s and looking to get married lol. I'll take Detroit - which will remain the largest city in Michigan for the balance of our lifetimes and probably much longer - every time.

[TTime]

Ha. I remember people saying this 20 years ago. Despite perceptions, Grand Rapids proper population has remained pretty much the same - around 190k for the past 25 years. I grew up over there and still spend plenty of time there. You can still drive 10-15 minutes and you're in corn fields. No, there is not more activity in downtown GR than in Detroit, especially not anymore. If you believe that then you don't spend much time in downtown/Midtown/Corktown/etc. Detroit lately. I'm a city kid and even though GR is a beautiful, somewhat thriving city, it's not hard to get bored there. And good luck meeting a women unless you're young 20s and looking to get married lol. I'll take Detroit - which will remain the largest city in Michigan for the balance of our lifetimes and probably much longer - every time.

I currently spend a lot of time in both downtowns and I'll ha your ha and simply disagree for a few reasons. When one is looking for a downtown experience, what does it matter if you're in corn fields 15 mins away or some suburb? For my money, having access to a pretty country drive that close to downtown rather than being stuck in some suburban traffic is a great thing. As far as downtowns go, GR stands right with Detroit for activity and may surpass it. Also you forgot to mention that when you are 1 minute outside of the areas you noted in Detroit you are in abandoned neighborhoods....quite a different story in GR as the neighborhoods are still intact. One last thing, one town is growing and the other has taken a massive population hit so if you see those people who have been saying GR will surpass Detroit in population you can tip your hat to their prediction because it's getting closer and closer to becoming reality.

[erikd]

It seems like everyday on the news you hear that Detroit is turning a new leaf in development but then it's followed up with serial carjackers and then a rundown of everything that's wrong with the city. I'm wondering in terms of population, blight, and out-migration- has Detroit Bottomed out yet? Is Detroit as low as it can go?

I guess it depends on which metrics you use. In terms of population loss, I think that we haven't hit bottom yet. There are still more people leaving than moving in, but the decline is slowing, and it is not unreasonable to think that this could stabilize, or even begin to slowly reverse at some point in the near future.

It is hard to predict how much impact the development in the city center and other desirable areas of the city will ultimately have in the less desirable neighborhoods that are far removed from these areas of investment and development.

The one thing that I am confident in is the continued growth of the greater downtown area, and the relatively intact historic areas. It is important to realize that the strong demand for, and investment in, traditional urban areas is a nationwide movement that has been underway for over a decade, and shows no sign of slowing down. There is a movement back into American cities, and it is being led by the young, educated, and affluent population, and perhaps even more importantly, both the entrepreneurs and established corporations. We are seeing a level of investment in American cities [[including Detroit) that hasn't happened in decades.