Detnews on Detroit's Population - White Population

[emu steve]

The question: Is there really a reverse migration trend of folks moving back to the city and whom are they? Young professionals?

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/new...hows/72371118/

What is needed in these population estimate discussions are:

1). Total estimated population for several years [[e.g., 2010, 11, 12, 13 and 14).

2). Total recorded births and deaths by the MDPH for the same years.

Once we know the answers to #2, then we can estimate if Detroit is getting a net in migration.

Detroit probably has net negative population change from deaths minus births. Detroit hardly resembles a suburb with a lot of young families.

Detroit probably has fairly significant out and in migration with some still leaving but others moving in from the 'burbs. That is still probably negative [[net out migration) but is coming closer to net zero.

[Lowell]

If insurance rates for Detroit could be equalized to, say, the average for metro Detroit, I'd bet those numbers would soar. People, particularly the young, who are 'bunking' in Detroit [keeping their official residence at family or friend's suburban homes] would likely declare Detroit residency.

[Danny]

Yep! My dad was right. White folks are coming back to Detroit. Thank you Dan Gilbert.

[oladub]

I am familiar with the resurgence of downtown Minneapolis where Yuppies are creating a demand for more and more high rise condo buildings. Retirees are also moving into downtown condos there. Target and grocery stores have retail stores downtown there. This is all very expensive. It looks all white to me. The major impediment to even faster downtown residential growth in Minneapolis is that Yuppies want good schools for their kids. They tend to move off to the suburbs when their kids get school age. They are presently waging a battle to have a public school built downtown that would better reflect their own demographics offering safety and high academic competiton. If Detroit wants to jump start this sort of downtown growth, building a new public neighborhood school downtown would be something to consider.

[Baselinepunk]

No matter how many white-washed "articles" written in New York papers about the "rise of Detroit" are written, the whole "thing" is not sustainable until they fix the FUCKING SCHOOL DISTRICT.

Pissed on for many, many years -- I just don't see folks moving in and putting their kids into DPS. Private schools, the crappy charters schools -- can only handle so many kids.

As somewhat of a product of DPS [[until my parents got me the fuck outta there in the late 70s), I struggled for years in many subjects in the new suburban school/s I attended -- I was at least 1-2 years behind in math and english when I got into my new peer group.

I feel a lot of this "resurgence" in Detroit is primarily Capitalist speculation driven. Once the out of towners hit their target profit goal, they are cashing the fuck outta this town.

Hell, the DB from Shinola doesn't even live here full time -- it's like his place on Trumble is some sort of armored bunker vacation get away, where he can get some street cred on the side with his CPD buddies.

Bullshit.

[1953]

Hipsters don't have kids, thus, they don't care about the schools.

And, there are more of them to be had once the first generation starts having kids.

1953

[mwilbert]

No matter how many white-washed "articles" written in New York papers about the "rise of Detroit" are written, the whole "thing" is not sustainable until they fix the FUCKING SCHOOL DISTRICT.

You are probably not right about this. Most cities have bad schools, admittedly not as bad as Detroit's but bad enough. But most households don't have school age children, so it doesn't matter so much. Of course it would be better if the schools were better; lots of people do have children. But it isn't some kind of showstopper. Crime is a much, much bigger issue than schools--that is where Detroit is an outlier.

[detroitsgwenivere]

^^ I dunno, not one white friend of mine who has young children has moved into Detroit, and part of that has to do with the ratio of black to white students in the schools. Some don't feel comfortable with a black majority anything. It sucks to even type this.

[dtowncitylover]

^^ I dunno, not one white friend of mine who has young children has moved into Detroit, and part of that has to do with the ratio of black to white students in the schools. Some don't feel comfortable with a black majority anything. It sucks to even type this.

Admittedly, I don't know a lot about the public schools in DPS. There are extremely select public schools I would send my future children to in Detroit. Indeed, I would base my living choice on the neighborhood. I know Chrysler and Cass Tech are very good public schools and wouldn't mind sending my children there.

I think when a lot of younger metro Detroiters think of public schools in Detroit they think of Denby, Pershing, or Kettering, which compared to Seaholm or Rochester Adams, were very tough schools. It's not so much the demographic of the school, it's the safety.

And what's funny is that if you stick a first grader into a new school, EVERYONE is new so you can grow up with the students around you as your friends. If my parents moved into Detroit and sent me to Pershing for high school [[after 8 grades of innocent Catholic school), I would've been lost.

[ndavies]

Admittedly, I don't know a lot about the public schools in DPS. There are extremely select public schools I would send my future children to in Detroit. Indeed, I would base my living choice on the neighborhood. I know Chrysler and Cass Tech are very good public schools and wouldn't mind sending my children there.

I think when a lot of younger metro Detroiters think of public schools in Detroit they think of Denby, Pershing, or Kettering, which compared to Seaholm or Rochester Adams, were very tough schools. It's not so much the demographic of the school, it's the safety.

And what's funny is that if you stick a first grader into a new school, EVERYONE is new so you can grow up with the students around you as your friends. If my parents moved into Detroit and sent me to Pershing for high school [[after 8 grades of innocent Catholic school), I would've been lost.

What makes you think your kid would get into Cass Tech? Not everyone can go there. Your kid has to apply for a spot and be accepted. Cass tech wannabe students have to have good grades and pass an entrance exam.

[Funaho]

If insurance rates for Detroit could be equalized to, say, the average for metro Detroit, I'd bet those numbers would soar. People, particularly the young, who are 'bunking' in Detroit [keeping their official residence at family or friend's suburban homes] would likely declare Detroit residency.

Definitely this. I have a coworker who was all psyched to move downtown....then he got quotes on his car insurance and decided to move elsewhere instead.

[Danny]

Here is how Detroit is getting few more white folks:

Thanks to Dan Gibert and his Gilberttown Detroit buying spree, he lure hundreds of millenial tech jobs to the city. This lead to high demand of housing, retail and pop up stores. Detroit is under a neighborhood empowerment zone tax breaks. So when you move any Detroit area under the NPZ, you will get a 12 to 15% property tax deduction for 10 years or more.

Here's why more black folks are leaving Detroit.

Years of high crime, violence, poor schools, lack of police protection, insurance redlining, gentrification, tired of looking at blighted ghettos and vacant areas.

Here is why fewer Mexican-Hispanics are slowly leaving Detroit.

They are looking for better housing than living in 120 year old Detroit buildings. The demolition of Oakwood Heights barrio-hood had cause most of them to better suburban housing in some Downriver Wayne County cities. Melvindale, Lincoln Park and Ecorse are hot spots gaining an infux of Mexican-Hispanics population of 15 to 20%.

White folks are coming back in Detroit, but not as settling down to build their families. Most of them will come by single middle class and couples. As soon they have their first bundle of joy they will move out. Until Detroit urban problems has been solved, white growth to Detroit will continue in slow numbers.

[dtowncitylover]

What makes you think your kid would get into Cass Tech? Not everyone can go there. Your kid has to apply for a spot and be accepted. Cass tech wannabe students have to have good grades and pass an entrance exam.

Jeez, what's with the attitude? Yeah I know that. Considering I come from a family that places great importance on education and barring any cognitive disabilities, I would hope my kids would do well in school so they can go to Cass Tech.

[softailrider]

Chicago is similar, when the kids have kids they move to the outskirts. Can't send your kids to those shitty schools. Lots of people don't want or can't afford to spend $10000.00 a year per kid for private schools. Usually, you expect decent schools to as a result of your propert taxes.

[Junjie]

I don't think the focus on "but they will just move out when they have kids" is very useful. In the past nobody wanted to move to Detroit if they could help it. Now, some do. That's worth talking about. At 8,000 per year [[and hopefully that number holds steady / keeps going up as time goes by), it will start to add up.

Even if the 30-somethings are moving out, there are always new 20-somethings to replace them, and now you've gained a big group of younger childless folks that you didn't have before, living in Detroit for awhile before they have kids. That's still a net positive for the city. It would be even bigger if they stayed longer, of course, but that will come later if things keep improving.

Of course, for all the attention to young whites moving into greater downtown, population numbers would be helped far more by slowing/stopping the loss of black residents. This article also shows that 50,000 African-American residents moved out in the five years it took to gain 14,000 new white residents.

[Cincinnati_Kid]

No matter how many white-washed "articles" written in New York papers about the "rise of Detroit" are written, the whole "thing" is not sustainable until they fix the FUCKING SCHOOL DISTRICT.

Pissed on for many, many years -- I just don't see folks moving in and putting their kids into DPS. Private schools, the crappy charters schools -- can only handle so many kids.

As somewhat of a product of DPS [[until my parents got me the fuck outta there in the late 70s), I struggled for years in many subjects in the new suburban school/s I attended -- I was at least 1-2 years behind in math and english when I got into my new peer group.

I feel a lot of this "resurgence" in Detroit is primarily Capitalist speculation driven. Once the out of towners hit their target profit goal, they are cashing the fuck outta this town.

Hell, the DB from Shinola doesn't even live here full time -- it's like his place on Trumble is some sort of armored bunker vacation get away, where he can get some street cred on the side with his CPD buddies.

Bullshit.

And don't forget about the violent crime. If they can't get that under control, the in-migration of anyone will be halted.

[emu steve]

I don't think the focus on "but they will just move out when they have kids" is very useful. In the past nobody wanted to move to Detroit if they could help it. Now, some do. That's worth talking about. At 8,000 per year [[and hopefully that number holds steady / keeps going up as time goes by), it will start to add up.

Even if the 30-somethings are moving out, there are always new 20-somethings to replace them, and now you've gained a big group of younger childless folks that you didn't have before, living in Detroit for awhile before they have kids. That's still a net positive for the city. It would be even bigger if they stayed longer, of course, but that will come later if things keep improving.

Of course, for all the attention to young whites moving into greater downtown, population numbers would be helped far more by slowing/stopping the loss of black residents. This article also shows that 50,000 African-American residents moved out in the five years it took to gain 14,000 new white residents.

What is interesting to me is not so much the out-migration [[that has been a problem for a number of decades), but the IN-migration.

I'm most interested in the number of households who are new to the city.

I'd suggest that IN-migration numbers tell the health of the city. If many people are moving INTO the city, the city is resurgent. Few people voluntarily move into a declining city.

I'm less concerned if a mother had say 4 children since 2010 census. But if four single person or two 2-person households move into Detroit that is more significant.

At some point in time we need to concentrate on number of households and number of occupied housing units instead of simply population count. If the number of household is going up, the city is getting better. Large [[or larger) families might be nice but children don't produce income and they require schools and teachers.

If 200 people move into 125 apartment units in Brush Park that is a signficant story. They are probably mostly or all adults, probably with significant income, etc. etc. They are the one who will help drive the downtown, Midtown economies, and pay city income taxes. [[and ride M-1 rail).

[jmarie]

What is interesting to me is not so much the out-migration [[that has been a problem for a number of decades), but the IN-migration.

I'm most interested in the number of households who are new to the city.

I know two that moved this month, and two more who are house hunting. In my experience, they are all single, so schools don't matter. But other than being single, they are pretty different. Which is good. Detroit needs diversity.

The two that moved:
Person A- single, late forties, female, African American. Her last kid went off to college, so she decided to move downtown so she can walk to work and enjoy downtown.
Person B- Your typical 22 year old hipster employed by Gilbert.

The two that are looking:
Person C- single, early fifties, female, African American, grandmother. She sits next to me at work and she looks at houses more than she works. From what I can tell, she hasn't really narrowed it down to an area or neighborhood. She has been considering a Land Bank house. [[I feel she should go after a Rehabbed and Ready house because they are still cheap and completely move-in ready.) She declared yesterday she is buying a house before the end of the month.
Person D- single, female, early thirties, white. She is focused on Boston-Edison, so she is just patiently waiting for the perfect house to come along.

[brizee]

Very interesting.

I would expect 8k gain since last census.

8000 in one year isn't anything to throw a party about, but a gain [[in one nice population at least) that size in one year is certainly nothing to be snotty/snarky about either.

I'm most curious about location. From what I've read, optimistic devolopers said downtown [[Lafayette/Eastern Market/Corktown) should be able to absorb about 1000 new residents a year, so where is the spillover*. Anecdotally after swimming at Adams/Butzel I happened to meet a white couple that just moved from Kansas city to around Davison/Fullerton.

Not to beat a deadhorse, but even adequate public transportation would help these stats so much**.

*Just my opinion from the travels my job has me on...The ares on/around Michigan just West of 75 and Gratiot just East of 75/Eastern Market is gonna come online pretty fast. There has also been a TON of activity around Wyoming/6 Mile this summer. Nothing concrete yet, but storefronts that have been rotting for years are being renovated/cleaned/secured.


**I could see the area East of Gratiot b/w McNichol and Seven, Woodward and Six, and Vinewood South of Michigan being something if reliable fast transit were available.

[313WX]

**I could see the area East of Gratiot b/w McNichol and Seven...

I probably would have agreed with you back in, say, the 1980s when Gratiot between 6 and 7 mile was still fairly vibrant and urban.

But 30 years later, that area has become very desolate and suburban [[not to mention it's now in the heart of the poorest / most dangerous zip code in the US). So that would probably be the very last area upwardly mobile yuppies would consider.

[brizee]

I probably would have agreed with you back in, say, the 1980s when Gratiot between 6 and 7 mile was still fairly vibrant and urban.

But 30 years later, that area has become very desolate and suburban [[not to mention it's now in the heart of the poorest / most dangerous zip code in the US). So that would probably be the very last area upwardly mobile yuppies would consider.

I actually meant WEST, the area around Schoenor full of abandoned/half full multifamlies and apartments.

But again this is years off anyway, and without some kind of decent transit even further so.

[Hermod]

I guess I wouldn't want to live on Reno [[a block east of Schoenherr between 7 and 8 mile) where I lived in 1961 when I was working for the city. If I ever moved back to the area, I would opt for new Baltimore or Marine City.

[DetroiterOnTheWestCoast]

I find it interesting that the decline in population was 12,784 in 2013, but only 8,459 in 2014. The net outflow decreased by 1/3 between those two years. Perhaps the population in the city actually might stabilize.

[mwilbert]

I find it interesting that the decline in population was 12,784 in 2013, but only 8,459 in 2014. The net outflow decreased by 1/3 between those two years. Perhaps the population in the city actually might stabilize.

It is extremely unlikely that the numbers are accurate enough to be able to distinguish differences of this size. I don't even have much confidence in their ability to detect a net inflow of 8000 whites. I believe based on other data that there is an inflow, but I don't think its magnitude is accurately known. The intra-census population data doesn't have that level of resolution.

Lest we forget, here is a corresponding story from 2010:

http://www.mlive.com/news/detroit/in...ht_in_det.html

Of course, when the 2010 census numbers came in, we learned that the 2009 numbers were completely wrong. So take these stories with a grain of salt. We will have much better information in another six years or so.

[Scottathew]

Yep! My dad was right. White folks are coming back to Detroit. Thank you Dan Gilbert.

Gilbert isn't the only one to thank. Detroit residents pay a lot of taxes for police, fire, and EMS services that are crucial to Detroit's comeback. As well as all the residents that have dug-in, pay the taxes, mow the lawn, and keep the community going.