Ferguson Effect?

**Wesley Mouch** · September-01-15, 09:37 AM

The gray lady makes lots of guesses about why, both citing and distancing itself from the 'Ferguson Effect' being a cause.

Some officials say intense national scrutiny of the use of force by the police has made officers less aggressive and emboldened criminals, though many experts dispute that theory.

If not the 'Ferguson Effect', then what? This isn't about what's wrong. This is about why urban murders increased broadly across America just now? What's different today than last year?

An observation. Detroit isn't mentioned in the article. Not even once. This is remarkable. Urban murder article, and the word 'Detroit' is absent.

Full front-page article: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/01/us...ties.html?_r=0

**Bham1982** · September-01-15, 10:19 AM

It's almost certainly true. Police are less willing to be proactive, and crime rises. Same thing happened in the late 60's and early 70's following the era of riots. Baltimore has had stunning increases in crime this year directly dated to the urban unrest.

"Black Lives Matters" is a borderline domestic terrorist group. They explicitly, repeatedly, called for the execution of police officers, and have now gotten their wish multiple times. Anyone who supports BLM and their aims should be ashamed. They should rename themselves "Black Lives don't Matter unless said Black Life is a Criminal trying to Kill a Non-Black Cop".

The only time the city of Detroit really had huge protests over the last year was over Ferguson. Yet our Justice Department, headed by a black civil rights leader, and who answers to a black President, determined that "Hands Up Don't Shoot" was a lie, and that the officer acted properly, within guidelines, in Ferguson. That was apparently cause for protest, but the 300 blacks killed in Detroit during the same period, many of them innocents, weren't worth a damn.

**Danny** · September-01-15, 10:38 AM

Detroit didn't suffered under the Ferguson Effect thank goodness. It's just black folks suffer under the mistreatment of the police force in ever American city, town and village.

Just recently, a white Texas Police officer was shot and killed by a black male. White folks went out and protest. But they didn't through bottles and shoot anyone. Is this White Lives Matter? or a case of their civil rights being violated.

**Dan Wesson** · September-01-15, 10:39 AM

I wouldn't say the "Ferguson Effect" is an absolute...

http://www.ksat.com/news/ksatcom-exc...olved-shooting

**animatedmartian** · September-01-15, 11:52 AM

After visiting NYC and DC this past weekend, I noticed that there's pretty much police squads on every corner, even the touristy areas. I thought I was in a police state at one point. Detroit doesn't feel anything like a police state and really it seems like a rarity to see more than one cop car in any area at any given time.

My theory is that Detroit hasn't had this so called "Ferguson effect" simply because the authoritative power is simply not visible here. Detroiters are lucky to even get police to show up for minor incidents let alone be there to witness minor incidents take place.

**janesback** · September-01-15, 12:23 PM

Originally Posted by Danny

Detroit didn't suffered under the Ferguson Effect thank goodness. It's just black folks suffer under the mistreatment of the police force in ever American city, town and village.

Just recently, a white Texas Police officer was shot and killed by a black male. White folks went out and protest. But they didn't through bottles and shoot anyone. Is this White Lives Matter? or a case of their civil rights being violated.

Danny , you stated..." White folks went out and protest"

wrong wrong wrong.........they held a vigil where more than 1000 people came together to commerate the policeman who was shot by a thug coward who had prior charges, but no convictions because the witness disappeared and the charges were dropped.

The office that was murdered was a father and did much for the community that he served.

**Gpwrangler** · September-01-15, 02:35 PM

Originally Posted by animatedmartian

After visiting NYC and DC this past weekend, I noticed that there's pretty much police squads on every corner, even the touristy areas. I thought I was in a police state at one point. Detroit doesn't feel anything like a police state and really it seems like a rarity to see more than one cop car in any area at any given time.

Detroit could use this method to cut down on crime. There's cops everywhere in GP and I like it just fine.

**bust** · September-01-15, 03:41 PM

Originally Posted by animatedmartian

After visiting NYC and DC this past weekend, I noticed that there's pretty much police squads on every corner, even the touristy areas. I thought I was in a police state at one point. Detroit doesn't feel anything like a police state and really it seems like a rarity to see more than one cop car in any area at any given time.

My theory is that Detroit hasn't had this so called "Ferguson effect" simply because the authoritative power is simply not visible here. Detroiters are lucky to even get police to show up for minor incidents let alone be there to witness minor incidents take place.

You saw so many police in New York because you were in touristy areas, not despite that fact. It is much less common to see police in New York where tourists don't go.

Even after two murders in two years immediately below her 2nd floor bedroom window my close friend, despite her repeated calls to the local police precinct, could not get them to step up patrols.

Unsurprisingly, that neighborhood has become incredibly gentrified and touristified, she left when her rent increased dramatically, and the police are more common there now.

**bust** · September-01-15, 04:17 PM

There are many factors that explain the dramatic reduction in crime New York began experiencing in the mid 90's, and which accelerated after the turn of the century. Here are two I think have been underrepresented in common discourse:

1) The change in preference among urban youth in the 90's from crack to pot. People high on pot are rarely ever violent; crackheads often are.

2) 9/11. The city dramatically changed after that tragedy. There was a palpable sense we were all common victims and in it together. That dramatically changed our behavior toward each other for the better.

Unfortunately, kids today have more access to many more choices for their high, from bath salts to meth to "synthetic marijuana". These lead to much worse behavior.

Meanwhile, people today of the ages most likely to commit crimes are too young to have been affected much by 9/11, and do not share that bond with their fellow New Yorkers.

Giuliani's time in office happened to have occurred during the period when young people from the suburbs reversed historical trends and began moving into cities en masse. New York was one of the primary beneficiaries. Count me among those who arrived there near the beginning of Giuliani's administration, even while my first stint there predated him.

Something else: I've read no research on the subject, but it seems that gangs have recently become a bigger problem across the nation as a whole. They seem worse in New York, worse in Detroit, and a problem now even in small towns and rural locations like in the Poconos.

It's of course a highly complicated situation, and there are no easy explanations. But Giuliani received far too much credit for New York's reduction in crime. De Blasio has seen far too much blame for the signs it may recently be increasing. And Bratton is the Police Commissioner who served both administrations.

I doubt Ferguson is the explanation either. There has been a preponderance of recent evidence -- and from places besides Ferguson -- that police cannot always be trusted. And there are now many more people who are skeptical of police than there were before. Does this greater scrutiny prevent police from being effective? It doesn't seem like it should, at least not when they're doing their job correctly. If the police believe otherwise, I'm curious to hear from them how that's so. And if so, it'd be one piece among many in a big puzzle.

**mtburb** · September-01-15, 04:26 PM

Originally Posted by animatedmartian

After visiting NYC and DC this past weekend, I noticed that there's pretty much police squads on every corner, even the touristy areas. I thought I was in a police state at one point. Detroit doesn't feel anything like a police state and really it seems like a rarity to see more than one cop car in any area at any given time.

Even Wyandotte has cops roaming around at random spots.

You don't need to go far at all.

**Gpwrangler** · September-01-15, 08:50 PM

Originally Posted by Bham1982

It's almost certainly true. Police are less willing to be proactive, and crime rises.

I guess that would depend on where you live. It's definitely not true here.

**Danny** · September-01-15, 10:49 PM

Originally Posted by janesback

Danny , you stated..." White folks went out and protest"

wrong wrong wrong.........they held a vigil where more than 1000 people came together to commerate the policeman who was shot by a thug coward who had prior charges, but no convictions because the witness disappeared and the charges were dropped.

The office that was murdered was a father and did much for the community that he served.

You're not looking deeper into objective criticism. A vigil is a form of social protest. Take a look of this:

http://www.rt.com/usa/268633-charles...protest-vigil/

Whether it's black folks being killed by white cops or some Mexican immigrant being murdered by Trump's corporate gang[[ what ever), vigils are a form of protest. But this time its non-violent. Look into to Youtube and any baised national media. I look for sources, find out if its true or not and comment in this forum. This is a comment from my point of view.

White folks in America had got it right this time. They are keeping their eyes on the prize.

**Honky Tonk** · September-02-15, 06:39 AM

Originally Posted by mtburb

Even Wyandotte has cops roaming around at random spots.

Detroit has cops congregated @ various sporting events.

**Wesley Mouch** · September-02-15, 10:27 AM

Originally Posted by bust

There are many factors that explain the dramatic reduction in crime New York began experiencing in the mid 90's, and which accelerated after the turn of the century. Here are two I think have been underrepresented in common discourse:...snip...

I doubt Ferguson is the explanation either. There has been a preponderance of recent evidence -- and from places besides Ferguson -- that police cannot always be trusted. And there are now many more people who are skeptical of police than there were before. Does this greater scrutiny prevent police from being effective? It doesn't seem like it should, at least not when they're doing their job correctly. If the police believe otherwise, I'm curious to hear from them how that's so. And if so, it'd be one piece among many in a big puzzle.

Thanks, Bust, for the comments. I think the connection -- the Ferguson Effect -- is an obvious result. So I'm interested in opposing thoughts.

The idea you suggest -- bolded above -- is that there is a simple 'correct' in a policeman's job. Its a common theme I hear from those who advocate for more police oversight. And I think its a simplification. For example, teachers in Ontario threaten to 'teach to the rule'. Its a threat to not be great teachers -- but to do everything required by the 'rules'. What I think is happening is the that cops are beginning to 'work to the rule'. That should have some positive effects, I hope. Fewer criminal actions by bad cops. But it also means that fewer cops are likely to put themselves in a situation where they can be called racist. So more cops do what they have to do -- and the criminals know it. Maybe its a small figure, but perhaps 5% more 'bad guys' now carry guns in NYC. The calculus has changed.

Thanks for the comment.

**Towne Cluber** · September-02-15, 11:29 AM

Originally Posted by Honky Tonk

Detroit has cops congregated @ various sporting events.

...and at the 8 Mile Meijer strip mall too!

**rex** · September-02-15, 12:04 PM

homicide is up in Detroit over last year but only by 1% Elsewhere the difference is a bit more noticeable. I dont believe for a second that the police are holding back. Police kill people all the time. As of July 1 they had killed 550, 120 of whom had been unarmed, I think a a lot of them have a taste for murder.... they like to kill and want people to think they're holding back so they can get public support to be more aggressive.

**MSUguy** · September-02-15, 12:25 PM

Originally Posted by Bham1982

It's almost certainly true. Police are less willing to be proactive, and crime rises. Same thing happened in the late 60's and early 70's following the era of riots. Baltimore has had stunning increases in crime this year directly dated to the urban unrest.

"Black Lives Matters" is a borderline domestic terrorist group. They explicitly, repeatedly, called for the execution of police officers, and have now gotten their wish multiple times. Anyone who supports BLM and their aims should be ashamed. They should rename themselves "Black Lives don't Matter unless said Black Life is a Criminal trying to Kill a Non-Black Cop".

The only time the city of Detroit really had huge protests over the last year was over Ferguson. Yet our Justice Department, headed by a black civil rights leader, and who answers to a black President, determined that "Hands Up Don't Shoot" was a lie, and that the officer acted properly, within guidelines, in Ferguson. That was apparently cause for protest, but the 300 blacks killed in Detroit during the same period, many of them innocents, weren't worth a damn.

I didn't know Nolan Finley posted here. It's not an either or question there plenty of Detroiters working everyday on violence issues in the city. Of course, your types don't acknowledge that so you can continue to deny that there is a systematic problem with policing in this country, especially in communities of color. That same DOJ found serious issues with police brutality in the Ferguson department.

http://www.theatlantic.com/national/...report/386887/

**Wesley Mouch** · September-02-15, 01:45 PM

Originally Posted by MSUguy

I didn't know Nolan Finley posted here. It's not an either or question there plenty of Detroiters working everyday violence issues in the city. Of course, your types don't acknowledge that so you can continue do deny that there is systematic problem with policing in this country, especially in communities of color. That same DOJ founded serious issues with police brutality in Ferguson department.

http://www.theatlantic.com/national/...report/386887/

Sweeping accusations of those who disagree with you don't fit you well.

I for one, believe that BLM is causing much more harm than good. But I strongly agree that there are deep problems with policing and how they deal with minorities.

I can believe that, and at the same time point out that BLM is counterproductive. Racism exists, but the far left sees it behind every tree while the far right denies its current existence.

Most people are in the middle. BLM obsession and exclusive focus on bad policing is alienating the right -- and doing so is harmful to everyone.

Peggy Hubbard says police reform is necessary -- but she can call out BLM. Most people agree. Her husband's a cop.

**Bham1982** · September-02-15, 02:14 PM

Originally Posted by rex

homicide is up in Detroit over last year but only by 1% Elsewhere the difference is a bit more noticeable. I dont believe for a second that the police are holding back. Police kill people all the time. As of July 1 they had killed 550, 120 of whom had been unarmed, I think a a lot of them have a taste for murder.... they like to kill and want people to think they're holding back so they can get public support to be more aggressive.

The relative number of police killings has nothing to do with the relative level of police misconduct. There could be thousands of police killings and no misconduct, or no police killings and tons of misconduct.

The issue is whether or not a police killing is justified. In the vast majority of cases, the answer is yes.

**Wheels** · September-02-15, 02:45 PM

Bring back the TMU'S!

**Oddz313** · September-02-15, 03:34 PM

The rise in Opiate addiction has something to do with it as well.

**Ray1936** · September-02-15, 03:57 PM

Originally Posted by rex

I think a a lot of them have a taste for murder.... they like to kill and want people to think they're holding back so they can get public support to be more aggressive.

Yeah, that's all that I did for 29 years with the DPD. Unfortunately, I only got to kill two dogs [[both badly mangled by cars on the Lodge Freeway). Maybe in my next life.

**Gpwrangler** · September-02-15, 04:43 PM

Originally Posted by Bham1982

The relative number of police killings has nothing to do with the relative level of police misconduct. There could be thousands of police killings and no misconduct, or no police killings and tons of misconduct.

The issue is whether or not a police killing is justified. In the vast majority of cases, the answer is yes.

I'd like to see the stats on civilians killing each other.

**iheartthed** · September-02-15, 05:47 PM

Originally Posted by Wesley Mouch

An observation. Detroit isn't mentioned in the article. Not even once. This is remarkable. Urban murder article, and the word 'Detroit' is absent.

Most likely Detroit didn't provide mid-year crime statistics and that's why it isn't mentioned. It's hard to draw any conclusions about about what is causing an increase in murders in some cities beyond wild speculation. We're not even looking at a complete set of data to draw any inferences since 1) all cities haven't provided data, and 2) we've still got 1/3rd of the year left to finish out.

**iheartthed** · September-02-15, 06:05 PM

Actually, Detroit did provide numbers. This is why it wasn't mentioned in the article:

Baltimore has become the second deadliest city in America [[after St. Louis) with homicides surpassing those of Detroit, the longtime poster child for urban violence.

During the first seven months of 2015, Detroit police reported 163 slayings. That compares to 189 killings recorded through July in Baltimore.

With 10% fewer residents than Detroit, Baltimore’s current homicide rate [[deaths per 100,000 people) is running about 26% above that of the Motor City.
That’s quite a reversal from the recent past.

In 2012, Detroit had 411 homicides compared to Baltimore’s 219. The following year, Detroit had the highest murder rate among larger U.S. cities, according to the 2013 Uniform Crime Report published by the FBI, while Baltimore came in fifth [[behind Detroit, New Orleans, Newark and St. Louis).

https://www.baltimorebrew.com/2015/0...cides-in-2015/