What if the auto industry never took root in Detroit?

[robtandersen]

I've spent a good deal of time studying the history of Detroit during "The Gilded Age", that era after The Civil War up until the development of the automobile industry. Detroit was immensely economically diverse, had a strong manufacturing infrastructure and drew immigrant populations, all of which helped set the stage for the birth of the auto industry. In 1900 the city [[a smaller Detroit in area than today) already had a population of over 250,000 people.

In the 1880's Detroit was looking to be an international city seen on par with the great cities of Europe. We have the development of the Grand Blvd, the purchase and decade plus long development of Belle Isle, the Art Museum and the International Exposition along the Detroit River in 1892. Detroit was on it's way to become something different. I can't help but feel the auto industry completely changed everything.

So I'm throwing it out to the crowd. What would Detroit have looked like if the auto industry never took root here?

[313WX]

What would Detroit have looked like if the auto industry never took root here?

Cleveland or Pitsburgh.

[Jimaz]

I doubt "Stotown" [[for stoves) would have generated much musical inspiration.

[iheartthed]

Cleveland or Pitsburgh.

So what you're saying is... Pretty much what it looks like now.

[Junjie]

Cleveland or Pitsburgh.

Precisely. Cleveland or Milwaukee I think are the best comparisons. The peak wouldn't have been nearly as high and the bottoming out not nearly as catastrophic, but then the city would also be as unremarkable as Cleveland or Milwaukee.

"Detroit" is something in a way that e.g. Cleveland is not. Even a fair number of people I've met in China know about the "car city". They've never heard of ke li fu lan.

But given all the pain I can't decide if that's a good trade or not... and I guess the answer would be "good for whom?" anyway.

[iheartthed]

Some people think that Detroit wouldn't have grown as large as it did without the auto industry, but I disagree. The average of the city's growth rate for the decades before the auto industry [[1850 - 1900) is pretty comparable to the average of the growth rate during the height of the auto era [[1910 - 1950), 53% pre vs 50% during.

[Gannon]

I doubt "Stotown" [[for stoves) would have generated much musical inspiration.

Stoves and stogies.

Without the driving rhythm of the assembly line, it would've been different for sure.


Every forty years, the lumber barons would have a big harvest party. Oh, wait a minute. Hantz has this plan now. H-m-m-n-n.

[TTime]

This is a great question and one that I have discussed with friends a few times. Milwaukee and Grand Rapids are the answers that we settled on. It is a given that the area would not be as built up without the auto industry so the massive growth and sprawl probably would not have occurred. It might've been a quaint little town. Who knows?

[313WX]

So what you're saying is... Pretty much what it looks like now.

Huh? What are you talking about.

First off, Detroit is twice the size of Cleveland, both in the number of people and economic scale. Other than the extent of their declines and both being rust belt cities, Detroit and Cleveland have absolutely nothing in common.

Second, the thread asks what if the auto industry was NOT based in Detroit, which is was and still is. Otherwise, like Cleveland or Pittsburgh, without the auto industry Detroit probably would have never had [[just to name a few):

*The 2nd largest department store in the world.
*The 2nd largest theatre in the country.
*The 2nd largest theatre district in the country.
*Approach 2 million people in total inhabitants.
*The largest financial district in the country outside of NYC and Chicago.
*Became a top 3 media market behind NYC and Chicago.

[313WX]

Some people think that Detroit wouldn't have grown as large as it did without the auto industry, but I disagree. The average of the city's growth rate for the decades before the auto industry [[1850 - 1900) is pretty comparable to the average of the growth rate during the height of the auto era [[1910 - 1950), 53% pre vs 50% during.

Detroit wasn't even on most American's radar prior to the boom of the auto industry [[even today, most people only associate Detroit with either crime or the Auto Industry). It was seen as a quaint little flyover town akin to Milwaukee or Buffalo.

All of the migrants who fled from the south in the early 20th century I'm sure wouldn't have chosen Detroit as their home if not for the plethora of good-paying, low-skilled jobs.

[Lowell]

A couple of other big gilded age industries were ship building and railroad car parts, particularly wheels. Along with the others Detroit was well-positioned for the auto explosion. I speculate that the auto boom had to suck the air out of those industries by competing for skilled labor and engineers. Had autos arisen elsewhere Detroit would have undoubtedly been a major parts maker and definitely more diverse - maybe Cincinnati or Minneapolis. Autos - our blessing and our curse.

[313WX]

The auto industry itself isn't a curse IMO. Even today, any other major city/state would be glad to have our cash cow [[as the auto industry still generates quite a bit of wealth for us, as even today our suburbs are still some of the wealthiest in the country and probably the 2nd wealthiest in the midwest).

Part of our problem was our leaders, with their short-sighted thinking, who thought the auto industry of the 40s-70s would remain that way forever [[completely oblivious to things happening around them as far as economic development and policies). As a result, we chose to kiss the ground the auto industry walked on, caved to their every little whimsicle demand and failed to plan for life without a booming auto industry.

Of course, the other problem was poor urban/regional planning. Instead of working to have a sense of place in Detroit [[like NYC and Chicago had and still have), the environment around here was instead seen as disposable and not worth investing in long term, as people were only coming here to make bank. That's why the city today isn't a major tourist destination [[despite the bones to be one), we've all sprawled out to hooterville mile road and other mid-size cities/regions are surpassing us in growth.

[Khorasaurus]

Agree with the general consensus. Without the auto industry, we wouldn't have the gorgeous buildings, the international name recognition, the cool brand, or the regional wealth. We might not have all four major league sports and we certainly wouldn't have the same quality of cultural institutions. But we probably also wouldn't have the sprawl, the dead neighborhoods, the bankruptcy, or the terrible public transit either.

I would say best case scenario, we would be a midwestern Portland or a bigger Grand Rapids - cool downtown, pretty river, nice place to be, but not really a major economic force or exporter of culture. Worst case scenario, we'd be a bigger Port Huron, known mostly for our border crossing. Most likely, we'd be Buffalo or Cleveland or Milwaukee - a decent sized rust belt city with a few things going for it, but nothing really notable on a national or international scale.

[Hermod]

Milwaukee. Detroit wasn't on the major railroad trunk lines. Much of the growth in railroad freight and passenger was tied to the auto industry boom. Without it, Detroit would be just a major branch line off the trunk lines through Toledo. The lumber business was waning and wouldn't be contributing to the future [[though pas proceeds did angel the infant auto industry). Probably only a fraction of the white and black migration from the south, so a much less polarized racial situation. Far slower growth of the burbs.

[Zulu Warrior]

Would like to offer some other possibilities...Detroit was also, during the metal working age, the seed capital, as Michigan still has a fine agrarian bent now, but Detroit was much more significant in that effort.

http://nighttraintodetroit.com/2015/...ckyard-garden/

Perhaps Detroit would have grown into a major agri-business sector player, much like some southern cities...

Tied to this would have been the chemical industries and the possibility that Dow Chemical or other chemical companies might have had more significant activity here, as PVS chemicals now is a solid player here.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_Chemical_Company
http://www.pvschemicals.com/history.asp

Lastly Parke Davis might have drawn more competitors here and our Pharma Industry might have had a larger footprint.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parke-Davis

[dtowncitylover]

IIRC, it was a fight between us and Indianapolis to become the auto capitol of the world. We won. So another question could be what would Indy look like if they gained control of the auto industry? A city like ours? Perhaps they would've done things differently, diversified?

Hypotheticals are not pondered among academic historians considering the fact it's not history [[i.e. it never happened so why are we talking about?), but this topic is much too good not to talk about.

I've also wondered had the French won the Seven Years' War what North American would look like today. Montreal down to St. Louis would be French speaking lands. This includes Detroit, perhaps it would've taken the name "Pontchartrain".

[Khorasaurus]

IIRC, it was a fight between us and Indianapolis to become the auto capitol of the world. We won. So another question could be what would Indy look like if they gained control of the auto industry? A city like ours? Perhaps they would've done things differently, diversified?

Hypotheticals are not pondered among academic historians considering the fact it's not history [[i.e. it never happened so why are we talking about?), but this topic is much too good not to talk about.

I've also wondered had the French won the Seven Years' War what North American would look like today. Montreal down to St. Louis would be French speaking lands. This includes Detroit, perhaps it would've taken the name "Pontchartrain".

In real life, Indy grew because it became the meeting point of a bunch of interstates [[65,69,70, and 74). Can you imagine the impact of that + the auto industry+flat land and no major water bodies in every direction? It would redefine sprawl. A huge city but completely auto-dependent, like a Midwestern Houston.

If the French had won the Seven Year's War, it would have completely changed world history. It's entirely possible that neither the American nor the French Revolutions would have happened. We might be living under a French King.

[dtowncitylover]

If the French had won the Seven Year's War, it would have completely changed world history. It's entirely possible that neither the American nor the French Revolutions would have happened. We might be living under a French King.

Yup. That's why the seemingly simple question of "What if Detroit stayed French?" is much bigger than it looks like. So much else would've had to have happened.

[Huggybear]

If you are exploring alternate histories: consider this: if Detroit had not been the center of the auto industry, consider that the auto industry might not have existed - and not just Detroit, but the whole world would have looked different. A viable, worldwide, mass-production auto industry actually coalesced around individuals largely located in Michigan and industries [[gasoline marine motors and forging) that were uniquely sited here. Ford's techniques then spread throughout the world. Had that not happened, not just Detroit but huge parts of the country would have looked different. Cleveland and Akron relied on industries that developed around autos [[rubber, plastics), and Pittsburgh's growth was fueled in no small part by steel demand from the auto industry. Detroit wouldn't be like Cleveland because Cleveland wouldn't exist in the form we know it today. And the massive energy requirements of auto [[and steel) production - had they not existed - would have made coal country far less relevant back in the day. Understand also that from a very early stage, the supply chain for things like rubber tires even reached places like Manaus in Brazil, Indonesia, and Malaysia.

HB

[canuck]

IIRC, it was a fight between us and Indianapolis to become the auto capitol of the world. We won. So another question could be what would Indy look like if they gained control of the auto industry? A city like ours? Perhaps they would've done things differently, diversified?

Hypotheticals are not pondered among academic historians considering the fact it's not history [[i.e. it never happened so why are we talking about?), but this topic is much too good not to talk about.

I've also wondered had the French won the Seven Years' War what North American would look like today. Montreal down to St. Louis would be French speaking lands. This includes Detroit, perhaps it would've taken the name "Pontchartrain".

I wonder also about how we might have evolved under the French and Anglo-American regimes. Especially after the industrial revolution started taking hold on our continent.
What kind of industrial developments would have happened in those cities and territories.

I have to say that Detroit is still a stronger looming presence on the zeitgeist than any other city mentioned. The auto industry is of course palpably the main reason for this as Detroit is usually synonymous with American car production. The fact that Apple and Google now want to enter automotive design and construction might change that. I personally hope for a resurgence of the car industry in Detroit, and maybe Google Tesla or what becomes of it and Apple are a good thing in the long run pushing American design and execution to new levels.

Also, we are experiencing more investment from China now that the cost of manufacturing certain products becomes profitable for them. We see it here in Quebec in construction and hardware products where the Chinese are opening factories for products destined for their marketplace.