Critical Mass

[MikeyinBrooklyn]

The title does not refer to the trouble-making bicycle idiots of a few years past.

Stepping back and thinking about the city as a whole, I realized something. As much as everyone [[myself included) likes to whine and complain about the various troubles Detroit and Michigan have and have had, there are tons of things to be optimistic about and grateful for. In fact, I will risk the laughter and condemnation of some of my fellow posters by saying we have hit the point of "critical mass" downtown, with results spilling over into both outlying areas of the city and the suburbs.

Among the things happening now:
-Major reno and expansion at Cobo, making it a good choice to hold an event, and something we don't need to apologize for or explain away to others.
-Reno and conversion of many buildings, large and small, that had long been left for dead. With paying tenants of all sorts moving in.
-Michigan state gov't actively working as a partner and friend to the city.
-Detroit city gov't actively working as a partner and friend to the city.
-Many new hotels open, with more on the way. And in a variety of locations and at differing price points.
-New arena, surrounded by a large new commercial district.
-Several different transit options coming to the city and region, including a modern streetcar system and a rapid bus network.
-Bankruptcy. Yes, it's a good thing. Our financial prognosis was terminal before. The chemo that is federal bankruptcy court will allow us to live as a city. The bankruptcy marks the end of an era of non-management by city government.
-Stores and bars and restaurants are more plentiful downtown, with more on the way. They will continue to attract more and more people, which will attract more and more stores, bars, and restaurants.
-The new bridge is close to beginning construction.

We have many things yet to fix in our city. That too is a good thing. Getting up in the morning with something to do is a plus. One problem of the past is fading away: various projects used to be terribly isolated [[RenCen, Civic Center, etc). Now, as apartments and office buildings and stores fill in, downtown in merging into midtown. Development is spreading east and west of the Woodward corridor. More people are moving to Detroit [[the 2020 census will have us with more residents, I bet, than the 2010 census), more people are certainly doing business in Detroit, and visiting Detroit. It is safe to do business here again. On the whole, businesses, non-profits, the city, the state, and so many of our residents are working more productively to improve the city than anytime in the rememberable past. Dog parks are getting built. People are renovating and flipping houses. Galleries are drawing out-of-state visitors. Street lights are getting repaired. The Packard Plant has a taxpaying owner pledging to make it a hub for assorted businesses. Bikers and hikers have great places to go now, with a lot more underway. Eastern Market continues to grow and improve. We have a Whole Foods and a Meijer, with a second of the latter under construction.

Kudos to us.

[rb336]

Detroit city gov't actively working as a partner and friend to the city.

that is the saddest truth from the last however many years

all very good points. Detroit also has a bunch of brand new schools

The final piece of the puzzle is getting an incentive package in place to consolidate the population and get rid of those near-empty neighborhoods.

[gnome]

Mikey, that was a double-shot of optimism for the morning. You must have had a good day.

i agree, it is difficult to see all the progress lately because we have had decades of false dawns.

I like what is going on in Capital Park, the GAR, the Globe Building, extension of The Cut, Service Street block and the Ponch/Cobo/fire HQ.

As long as Lucy doesn't pull away the football at the last second ...

[Honky Tonk]

I'm reserving all comments until a year after the bankruptcy, and Kevyn Orr leaves. Right now the teacher's in the classroom, let's see what happens when she steps out.

[Scottathew]

I share your optimism. If we get to January 2015 and Duggan does all the things he said he would do, Detroit will have started the recovery, with a very sobering distance to the finish, but recovery none-the-less.

[401don]

There is critical mass downtown in the sense of visible, and probably sustainable, progress but critical mass typically refers to enough population to support a vibrant downtown with retail. All of these small rehabs are great but we still need to see several new high--rises constructed along with riverfront low-rises that can add at least 3-4,000 downtown residents in the very near future.

[rb336]

If you look at "critical mass" as synonymous with "tipping point," which is how I have always looked at it, then it is the point where a previously rare phenomenon becomes common. In that case, Down and Mid have reached that critical mass. Development project are no longer being proposed and left to languish, they are moving forward. the "I'll believe it when I see it" attitude has lessened significantly

[mwilbert]

the 2020 census will have us with more residents, I bet, than the 2010 census

Very unlikely. I'm willing to believe that the "7.2" will have more residents in 2020, but there is nothing I can see happening that would cause the city to have more overall. Where, outside greater downtown, would you expect a rising population within city limits? I can imagine a specific census tract here or there that might gain people, but in general most of the city is still losing folks.

[ABetterDetroit]

Great post Mikey, a lot of excellent points. Detroits economic investment from the private sector is hitting highs that it hasn't seen for generations for sure and many of the reasons for this are the points you brought up. I'm greedy though when it comes to this city's future. For me critical mass is still coming and it will be attained when the economic investment brings a explosion of growth, opportunities for young people, jobs of all kinds having a large downward push on the unemployment figures so that anyone who wants a better future can improve their lot in life through work. I believe that this will be the best way to reach deep into the neighborhoods to supply the tools for real change for the city residents. It would also supply the tax base for the much needed cold hard cash that will improve the services that all the residents of Detroit would greatly benifit from, no matter if they are new or have lived here for their whole life. For myself a little weather is a piss poor excuse for Detroit not to have its own economic boom.

[401don]

Great post Mikey, a lot of excellent points. Detroits economic investment from the private sector is hitting highs that it hasn't seen for generations for sure and many of the reasons for this are the points you brought up. I'm greedy though when it comes to this city's future. For me critical mass is still coming and it will be attained when the economic investment brings a explosion of growth, opportunities for young people, jobs of all kinds having a large downward push on the unemployment figures so that anyone who wants a better future can improve their lot in life through work. I believe that this will be the best way to reach deep into the neighborhoods to supply the tools for real change for the city residents. It would also supply the tax base for the much needed cold hard cash that will improve the services that all the residents of Detroit would greatly benifit from, no matter if they are new or have lived here for their whole life. For myself a little weather is a piss poor excuse for Detroit not to have its own economic boom.

I don't think this utopia exists anywhere anymore if the workforce is uneducated.

[MikeyinBrooklyn]

I don't think this utopia exists anywhere anymore if the workforce is uneducated.

For Detroiters outside of the central core [[and select other neighborhoods), this is true. Unemployment is pervasive, and still would be even if there were tons of jobs available. Many Detroiters lack even the most basic education and job skills [[and when I say job skills, I mean an ability to speak basic English, show up on time and ready to work). That is fixable, but it is A) a long term fix, and B) requires most of the work to be done by those in need of the help. Many will not accept help that requires work on their part, sad as that is. Some will, so we should always keep trying. But you can't end someone else's cycle of poverty. You can try to help them, but they need to be active participants. Low skill, low wage jobs are a necessary good thing for Detroit's neighborhoods. It is the first rung on the ladder for those exiting poverty. People don't jump from welfare to chemical engineers; they step up from welfare to McDonald's or Wal-Mart or dishwasher. Later in their life, or their children's lives, will self-sufficient prosperity be known.

As for my comments on Detroit's future population, I still think 2020 will exceed 2010. In 2010, Detroit had 713K residents [[official tally). The 2013 estimate is 701K. I think our declining neighborhoods are close to bottoming out, and some neighborhoods are experiencing active growth. The second half of this decade the growing neighborhoods will eclipse the shrinking ones. I would predict our official population will be about 725K in 2020. A "full" Detroit by today's standards would be about 850K. That would take another decade or so to fulfill, if the rebound is kept on track.

[rb336]

I don't think this utopia exists anywhere anymore if the workforce is uneducated.

it doesn't exist anymore regardless

[Dan Wesson]

I wish it was true the that 7 square miles worth of Hopium can Wag the Dog.

Only 130 or so square miles to go.

[corktownyuppie]

Very unlikely. I'm willing to believe that the "7.2" will have more residents in 2020, but there is nothing I can see happening that would cause the city to have more overall. Where, outside greater downtown, would you expect a rising population within city limits? I can imagine a specific census tract here or there that might gain people, but in general most of the city is still losing folks.

My 2 cents:

- I agree that the 7.2 mi will have more residents.
- While I'm neutral on whether or not there will be population growth, I do believe that the quality of life in some of the neighborhoods will be better. And, more importantly, sustainable. But those gains may be offset by losses from citizens in other neighborhoods that move to the suburbs.
- For example, solid middle-class neighborhoods such as East English Village, Grandmont-Rosedale, Southwest Detroit, Sherwood Forest, and University District are already showing the budding signs of a rebound.

I think that net population growth in the entire city is plausible but certainly not a sure thing. But more importantly, for those neighborhoods like the ones listed above, I'm confident that quality of life and population growth will be way better in 10 years.

We are definitely near or at a tipping point.

[ABetterDetroit]

I don't think this utopia exists anywhere anymore if the workforce is uneducated.

Who said "utopia"? A tool for change. Jobs, lots of them. The service industry and construction industry alone offer tons of employment opportunities for people without a college education. A robust or booming local economy would supply these kinds of jobs in spades around here. It's like everyone forgets how long we have been down. Remember the "one state recession"? The unemployable are different than the unemployed, jobs have been so scarce in the city for so long it's hard to figure out the difference. I'm not talking about union jobs of yesteryear. Just regular entry level type job opportunity that exists in other cities. Human beings are the smartest and most adaptable things on earth, we have been that way for thousands of years. Money is a incredible motivator. I'm not implying that this is the only solution, but I am saying that employment opportunity has been a piece of the puzzle that has been scarce in Detroit for a very long time.

[Dan Wesson]

There is a robust economy present. It is subsidized too. Much of it has been made illegal by various enacted statutes. All the while enabled and funded by various social programs.

[401don]

Who said "utopia"? A tool for change. Jobs, lots of them. The service industry and construction industry alone offer tons of employment opportunities for people without a college education. A robust or booming local economy would supply these kinds of jobs in spades around here. It's like everyone forgets how long we have been down. Remember the "one state recession"? The unemployable are different than the unemployed, jobs have been so scarce in the city for so long it's hard to figure out the difference. I'm not talking about union jobs of yesteryear. Just regular entry level type job opportunity that exists in other cities. Human beings are the smartest and most adaptable things on earth, we have been that way for thousands of years. Money is a incredible motivator. I'm not implying that this is the only solution, but I am saying that employment opportunity has been a piece of the puzzle that has been scarce in Detroit for a very long time.

The 3 companies contracted to build the new arena have already stated they cannot meet the goal of 50% Detroiters because as soon as they acquire the trade skills and find employment they move out of the city - and this is only one project. What happens when they start bridge construction and a few highrises at the same time?

[Lowell]

Great post MikeyinBrooklyn.

Critical mass that seemed like such a hopeless pipe dream 15 years ago when these discussions began, now seems within reach. Yes, it is largely confined to the Downtown-to-New Center axis and spreading along the riverfront, but is this is the heart and soul of the City of Detroit and all of our international metropolis. This rising tide WILL lift all ships, even L. Brooks Patterson's and the State of Michigan's.

A decaying and dying center of our city did damage to our image, our ego, and our confidence. It has to get well before the rest has any hope of recovery.

The challenge is staggering burden of the caring for the region's impoverished, disabled, uneducated and homeless that the City of Detroit is stuck with. No other city in region except Highland Park carries such a load. Will that city-within-the-city of about 300,000 souls who cannot pay taxes and require much revenue doom any long term recovery?

That's the next big challenge but the first and necessary step has been taken and is blossoming.

[Wesley Mouch]

The 3 companies contracted to build the new arena have already stated they cannot meet the goal of 50% Detroiters because as soon as they acquire the trade skills and find employment they move out of the city - and this is only one project. What happens when they start bridge construction and a few highrises at the same time?

What's the problem. People moving because it improves their life. I call that success.

The only problem I see is any city residency rule that hurts our regions growth. That's bad for everyone, including city residents.

People who move can and may continue to contribute to the city they love.

[ABetterDetroit]

The 3 companies contracted to build the new arena have already stated they cannot meet the goal of 50% Detroiters because as soon as they acquire the trade skills and find employment they move out of the city - and this is only one project. What happens when they start bridge construction and a few highrises at the same time?

Easy, Very Good Things.

Private devolopment always brings the assets to the table that are necessary. Construction booms bring in all kinds of talent AND start grooming local talent simultaneously. Support sevices sprout out of the ground, from equipment rental to small contractors, restaurants, rental housing, security etc. Bring in several 100 mill+ projects and the sharks will start to feed and there will be plenty of crumbs in the water for the little guys, that's just how it works. Being familiar with the industry, there is a serious misunderstanding about contractors on this board. Just because a computer programmer or high paid factory worker is willing to drive 45 minutes one way to work daily to get to the burbs, construction guys hate that. They start early, work hard and finish late. Long commutes to the job site are not what they prefer. Anyone from out of town will look for accommodations close to the job site. I repeat again that the city's economy has been in contraction for so long it's hard to remember when more than one project happened at the same time.

Why do so many from this area remain convinced that what happens in other cities and states across America cannot ever happen here? Sometimes it feels like we are fighting against ourselves so hard that when anyone thinks of the possibilities in that they are vilified --ie Dan Gilbert.

[rb336]

A decaying and dying center of our city did damage to our image, our ego, and our confidence. It has to get well before the rest has any hope of recovery.

Two sentences. That is all it takes to answer the "why are all the developments happening there instead of here" question. Succinct and true.

The challenge is staggering burden of the caring for the region's impoverished, disabled, uneducated and homeless that the City of Detroit is stuck with. No other city in region except Highland Park carries such a load. Will that city-within-the-city of about 300,000 souls who cannot pay taxes and require much revenue doom any long term recovery?

That's the next big challenge but the first and necessary step has been taken and is blossoming.

It is a challenge that will be MUCH more manageable with a growing core