Crime is down for Q1 2014

**animatedmartian** · April-08-14, 01:26 AM

I'm surprised this hasn't got much attention [[or rather I should say I shouldn't be surprised). While there still has been big crime stories in the past few weeks, the overall trend is falling crime rates. January and March recorded the lowest homicide counts in a month since 2001. Though at this point, I get the feeling this doesn't count as good news to many people.

Bueller?

Bueller?

http://www.mlive.com/news/detroit/in...5_percent.html

**mikeg19** · April-08-14, 07:00 AM

Too cold outside, even for hardcore murderers....

**Lowell** · April-08-14, 07:54 AM

I don't get excited about short term stats any more than I get worked up by a media-sensational crime. Good news nonetheless, weather affected or not.

**DetroitHabitater** · April-08-14, 08:06 AM

Is crime down, or just not being recorded?

**Dan Wesson** · April-08-14, 08:12 AM

Overall counts maybe but as a percentage of population it's the highest it's ever been.

Like Mark Twain said... "There are three kinds of lies; lies, damn lies and statistics".

**Danny** · April-08-14, 08:29 AM

Crime is down, HAH! Wait until weather warms up, then we'll see when crime is down.

**Johnnny5** · April-08-14, 08:52 AM

Less crime is great and my standards have been beaten down enough that I like seeing anything that isn't bad news.

That being said, I bet the record low temps and near record snowfalls were probably more of a deterrent than anything else. Also the crime stats cited are just overall numbers, not comparing them with population losses kind of defeats the purpose [[Other than the political purpose). Lowest number of homicides since 2001? I would freaking hope so! There are 30% fewer people living in Detroit than there were in 2001, to just be hitting the same lows still means we're well above the rate from then.

**cman710** · April-08-14, 09:10 AM

Everyone's points are well taken. We should not get too excited yet. Nonetheless, I think this marks a significant step in the right direction. While the winter undoubtedly contributed to this improvement, I think there is some real underlying progress.

Police Chief Craig's goal is a 10% reduction in crime this year. Crime will still be way, way too high if he achieves that goal, but it would be a great step in the right direction. We shall see.

**Spartan** · April-08-14, 09:19 AM

Originally Posted by mikeg19

Too cold outside, even for hardcore murderers....

Wouldn't the fact that there were only 10 murders in March go against that a bit? I'm pretty sure January was colder than March.

**Crumbled_pavement** · April-08-14, 09:25 AM

Originally Posted by cman710

Nonetheless, I think this marks a significant step in the right direction.

Significant? When I see Becky jogging up and down 7 Mile at 6am then I'll think crime has come down significantly.

**mikeg19** · April-08-14, 09:32 AM

Originally Posted by Spartan

Wouldn't the fact that there were only 10 murders in March go against that a bit? I'm pretty sure January was colder than March.

It was a sarcastic quip, not meant to be taken literally. Besides, I'm sure they will still be finding bodies from March months down the road.....

**Spartan** · April-08-14, 09:35 AM

Originally Posted by Crumbled_pavement

Significant? When I see Becky jogging up and down 7 Mile at 6am then I'll think crime has come down significantly.

What world do you live in that 25% is not significant? No one said Detroit suddenly a safe city...

**Wesley Mouch** · April-08-14, 10:06 AM

Originally Posted by Spartan

What world do you live in that 25% is not significant? No one said Detroit suddenly a safe city...

Statistics prove that short-term statistics mean little to nothing, unless you're a corporate CEO in which case upward statistics mean everything. Downward stats mean nothing.

**cman710** · April-08-14, 10:20 AM

Originally Posted by Spartan

What world do you live in that 25% is not significant? No one said Detroit suddenly a safe city...

Exactly. Realistically, it will take 10 years for a sea change to occur, even if crime went down significantly every year. That does not mean that a 10-25% decrease is not significant. There is only so much crime can go down at once.

**ABetterDetroit** · April-08-14, 10:25 AM

Originally Posted by animatedmartian

I'm surprised this hasn't got much attention [[or rather I should say I shouldn't be surprised). While there still has been big crime stories in the past few weeks, the overall trend is falling crime rates. January and March recorded the lowest homicide counts in a month since 2001. Though at this point, I get the feeling this doesn't count as good news to many people.

Bueller?

Bueller?

http://www.mlive.com/news/detroit/in...5_percent.html

Great news! Anytime less people are getting murdered under any circumstance it is a very good thing.

**emu steve** · April-08-14, 10:45 AM

Originally Posted by ABetterDetroit

Great news! Anytime less people are getting murdered under any circumstance it is a very good thing.

As I understand it, crime had been falling since the early [[or mid) 90s. Then the Great Recession hit and crime rates, nationally, started to rise.

Some might say crime rises in tough economic times.

Others say that cash-starved local governments cut police protection.

I had seen stats crime is up nationally for I believe two years, probably 2011 and 2012.

**Spartan** · April-08-14, 10:48 AM

Originally Posted by Wesley Mouch

Statistics prove that short-term statistics mean little to nothing, unless you're a corporate CEO in which case upward statistics mean everything. Downward stats mean nothing.

I'm not a statistician, but even with a small sample size, I find it hard to believe 25% is not a significant number. What is the minimum sample size that would make these statistics significant? If we go a whole year down 10%, is that significant? What is the time frame to appropriately judge crime trend?

**mwilbert** · April-08-14, 12:53 PM

There are multiple things involved in making a statistic significant, but in this case the obvious problem is that you only have a couple months and those months may have been unrepresentative because of the cold temperatures, so you really can't draw any strong conclusions from them. It is really hard to have a small number of observations [[like two or three) give you significance.

**rex** · April-08-14, 09:12 PM

Detroit is stuck with crime. Only reason its going down is the population is decreasing. The thread about education statistics from a week ago all but ensures this. Young men with little education, no skills, and criminal records and no jobs. Add and egg or sperm in this case and there you have it. A perpetual cycle. Doesnt matter how many police you put on the street either. With the cost of education going up its not going to get better.

**CrashDummy** · April-08-14, 10:33 PM

I think the whole cold weather theory is way off base. We're comparing the first three months of this year to the first three months of last year. We're not comparing January to June. And I saw people much more angry and likely to murder people because of the weather, not less.

**Crumbled_pavement** · April-09-14, 03:57 AM

Originally Posted by rex

Detroit is stuck with crime. Only reason its going down is the population is decreasing. The thread about education statistics from a week ago all but ensures this. Young men with little education, no skills, and criminal records and no jobs. Add and egg or sperm in this case and there you have it. A perpetual cycle. Doesnt matter how many police you put on the street either. With the cost of education going up its not going to get better.

Very sobering but realistic analysis. There's a whole culture out there on both sides of the equation that needs to change. Unfortunately, no one in this equation -- either side, feels they should change. Unless Detroit catches lightening in a bottle again, for many citizens it is not going to be a pretty picture going forward.

**night-timer** · April-11-14, 10:52 PM

This thing is increasingly sounding like it'll take generations to fix, assuming anyone is still ininnerDetroit at that time.

**Cliffy** · April-11-14, 11:30 PM

Originally Posted by CrashDummy

I think the whole cold weather theory is way off base. We're comparing the first three months of this year to the first three months of last year. We're not comparing January to June. And I saw people much more angry and likely to murder people because of the weather, not less.

Right and last year's winter was like freaking spring compared to the crap we had. You do realize we had 90 inches of snow, the worst winter in 130 years, the top 10 coldest January, Feb, and March of all time. You really think people are outside gathering in 18 inches of snow with a polar vortext blowing -40 degree wind chills. No, they aren't. The losers will make up for all the shootings in killings starting in April. There is a reason Chicago had 75 shootings on a weekend in the summer and a lot less in January. COLD.