Population Stagnation in Michigan

[renf]

Yesterday the Census Bureau released their state population estimates for 7-1-13. In the interval since the 2010 count, Michigan gained 11,000 residents. Only 3 states grew more slowly. Rhode Island and West Virginia lost population and Maine’s population was essentially stable. Population growth would be a great stimulus for economic growth in Michigan but population growth typically depends upon a growth of jobs. In April 2000, non-farm employment in Michigan was estimated at 4.688 million. It sunk to a low of 3.826 million in March 2010 and has slowly increased to 4.094 million in November, 2013. That means the number of jobs in Michigan is still almost 15 percent below what it was in 2000. The auto industry is doing well but the investments vehicle firms are making imply that production will increase much more rapidly than employment. Agriculture is another booming sector of the state’s economy thanks to NAFTA but labor productivity in farming may be increasing even more rapidly than in manufacturing. Georgia passed Michigan in population last year. North Carolina will pass Michigan next year. Given its resources, it is too bad that Michigan is become a smaller and poorer state.

[Danny]

This is due to more tech jobs in some Michigan cities. Some folks can't leave the state due to their families.

[DetroitPlanner]

Stagnation is actually a huge improvement. The last census showed Michigan to be the only state to lose population. This included LA! Quite a bad decade for us.

Pretty sad state of affairs. A lot of us have ties here we can't or do not want to break. This is what keeps us afloat.

[poobert]

Yesterday the Census Bureau released their state population estimates for 7-1-13. In the interval since the 2010 count, Michigan gained 11,000 residents. Only 3 states grew more slowly. Rhode Island and West Virginia lost population and Maine’s population was essentially stable. Population growth would be a great stimulus for economic growth in Michigan but population growth typically depends upon a growth of jobs. In April 2000, non-farm employment in Michigan was estimated at 4.688 million. It sunk to a low of 3.826 million in March 2010 and has slowly increased to 4.094 million in November, 2013. That means the number of jobs in Michigan is still almost 15 percent below what it was in 2000. The auto industry is doing well but the investments vehicle firms are making imply that production will increase much more rapidly than employment. Agriculture is another booming sector of the state’s economy thanks to NAFTA but labor productivity in farming may be increasing even more rapidly than in manufacturing. Georgia passed Michigan in population last year. North Carolina will pass Michigan next year. Given its resources, it is too bad that Michigan is become a smaller and poorer state.

I'm not sure what's surprising here, though. Michigan hasn't done anything to reverse its fortunes.

-Detroit is bankrupt. Everyone keeps spinning this as a good thing but last I checked, I don't want to go bankrupt. No one does. Sure we want a clean slate in Detroit, but bankruptcy sucks no matter what. The population continues to decline despite small pockets of relative prosperity.

-The state is more undesirable than ever to young people. It is also rapidly aging. Not a good combination.

-Our infatuation with the auto industry reminds me of the communist bloc states reliance on heavy industry. The auto industry is more national and international than ever, and relatively small number of Michiganders are employed by it these days. It's definitely a good thing it is still afloat, but it isn't 1978 anymore. Not only that, plenty of people have no desire to work in the auto industry.

-We elected a bunch of scary crack pot Tea Partiers across the state, who rant and rave about homosexuality and Santa Claus.

-The biggest joke of all is Right to Work. Snyder and his ilk claim that it has worked wonders for the state, despite all evidence to contrary, but refuse to name any company that has relocated to the state or even had interest in the state because of RTW. I'm extremely ambivalent about unions but there is nothing desirable about being a RTW state. My staff are union and I can tell you it is more of a headache than anything. The union can now threaten to sue members who opt out of dues, so it ended up being moot anyway.

-Only 25% of the population has a degree, compared to 28% nationally. We generally don't give a shit about education here, except in the case of wealthy suburban school districts. I see dumb people. Fucking everywhere.

-Our infrastructure is falling apart and in no part of the state is their comprehensive mass transit or passenger rail. So we're widening I-94.

Do the same things and expect different results...

[Baselinepunk]

^^^^^^ Excellent post!

[MikeyinBrooklyn]

I don't understand. Why are the low tax states growing? Don't the people moving there miss the services their money buys?

[313WX]

^^^^^^ Excellent post!

^^^^^^Seconded.

Detroit and Michigan's best days are behind it. For some, that may not be a bad thing. And in fact, that doesn't Detroit and Michigan can't be OK places to live/visit in the future.

That said, the bread and butter [[Auto Industry) that made our city and state great in the past has been absolutely decimated and globalized. So what we're experiencing presently is an economic and social correction in the wake of its local collapse from a place that was once very wealthy/progressive to a place that's very poor/regressive. It really sucks the most for those who are living through this transition period during the prime years [[20s/30s) of their lives, because there's nothing that can be done about this besides adaption.

[MikeyinBrooklyn]

Poobert, did you know that the Tea Party is much more prevalent in these rapidly growing southern states? Those states have very low rates of unionization, and are all, in fact, Right to Work states. Beyond the low taxes, fewer regulations, and blissfully weak unions, though, there is an ideological difference in the southern states. Here, many people gripe about the lack of adequate central planning for education, transit, roads, etc. Down there, people just go about their business.

[poobert]

Poobert, did you know that the Tea Party is much more prevalent in these rapidly growing southern states? Those states have very low rates of unionization, and are all, in fact, Right to Work states. Beyond the low taxes, fewer regulations, and blissfully weak unions, though, there is an ideological difference in the southern states. Here, many people gripe about the lack of adequate central planning for education, transit, roads, etc. Down there, people just go about their business.

I know, I've been to Alabama and Mississippi, they're positively booming.

I was not, however, aware they did not have "central planning" for roads. They build their own, huh? You learn something new every day.

Good luck being gay in Mississippi, by the way, when you decide to move to that economic paradise.

[Hermod]

North of the Bay City-Midland-Muskegon line, the state has been losing population since 1920 as the extraction industries [[mining, quarrying, and forest products) declined.

[MikeyinBrooklyn]

I know, I've been to Alabama and Mississippi, they're positively booming.

I was not, however, aware they did not have "central planning" for roads. They build their own, huh? You learn something new every day.

Good luck being gay in Mississippi, by the way, when you decide to move to that economic paradise.

Well, both Mississippi and Alabama have lower unemployment rates than Michigan, Alabama substantially so.

I did not mean to imply that roads independently appear out of nowhere down south. Merely, that the citizenry doesn't use bitching about inadquate government as an excuse to be unproductive. I think a lot of people up here do that.

Lastly, Poobert you have previously informed me- contrary to my own observation- that I am already oppressed here in Michigan. I might as well try the south, right? And I do love a southern drawl...

[rex]

I cant wait to leave. Started working on a network security graduate classes a year and a semester ago. Makes no sense to quit now... I'm almost done. Take my certs and degrees and be on my way. 8 years ago they jammed me with 5K in drivers responsibility fees. They were bleeding $$$ and manufactured creative new ways to screw people. I was one of em. Plus I don't trust recent Michigan politics. That lame duck shit was fuct. There are people out there with religious/conservative moral convictions I want nothing to do with, unfortunately they like to force their morals on everybody else when they should mind their damn business. I feel like these fuckwits have gained traction here lately. My entire adult life this place has been in recession. It sucks. When i was a kid I liked Detroit mostly because it was lawless. I could do and did whatever i wanted. Not a kid anymore. I live in a boring suburb and have no biz in the city except a few restaurants and the occasional show or ballgame.

[wolverine]

It's unfortunate for michigan because its excellent colleges and universities educate its own residents or out of state residents from very important global cities, who will then leave the state and move to global cities.

My neighbors, my coworkers, even my doctors I see, or person taking my order in a restaurant is an expat from Michigan. Throw a bunch a data at me, but that's got to be taking a toll. You don't walk in an office in Detroit and have a quarter of the staff raise their hands and say they are from Illinois.

Michigan has already some attractive places to do business like Grand Rapids or Ann Arbor. But I'd love to see Detroit become an economic powerhouse of professional jobs. That's where the money is.

[Dan Wesson]

I will tell you one thing I notice in my travels around this State.
If it were not for Government sponsored transfer payments of all types, earned and unearned this state would have to empty out.

Make no mistake much of this State's population subsists on the largesse of Government. There is more than an abundance of substandard sustenance supported by transfer payments and deficit spending that you will never see because it's off the beaten path.

I would not mind if the State population decreased by those who only know how to take.

Corporations... Oh the OP was about Population, I'll save the corporate thing for another day.

[maverick1]

I don't see this state growing. I try not to think that I spent my 20s and am currently spending my 30s here. This state or even Metro-Detroit are the Detroit Lions of states and cities. Detroit and Michigan could draw people that are being squeezed and crushed by more expensive cities but we are hell bent on being ass backwards. I don't get the infatuation with wanting to be like Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, etc. We operated on an "as long as it makes money it's good" mentality and you can see where it got us.

[Cincinnati_Kid]

The current government in this state will continue to expedite the mass exodus.

[wolverine]

The current government in this state will continue to expedite the mass exodus.

If it continues to validate and promote the ideas and policies of an older established population...then yes I'd agree.

Young educated residents are Michigan's greatest asset. They have the lowest burden on public services and when they need them, it's not for much. They pay taxes but don't ask for handouts. Maybe a couple bonuses once in awhile like trains on Woodward or bike lanes....pennies out of the state budget when you think of it.

Businesses today locate where the talent is. Some will ask for big subsidies, but I really think 10 years down the road that will be a thing of the past. Your business loses in the end if you don't locate in a place where your employees are bright, innovative and productive. Michigan has a vast number of these people. If only they could find the jobs at home.

[renf]

Wolverine is on the mark. It is a question of talent, not taxes. Washington, DC is a very high tax location. Massachusetts is still frequently called Taxachusetts because of its high tax rates. But they are both attractive quite a few migrants because of the nature of employment opportunities in those areas. As noted above, Michigan's young population do not compare very favorably with the youth of quite a few other states in terms of educational attainment. We have some strong universities in Michigan but the overall level of attainment is not unusual.

[313WX]

Wolverine is on the mark. It is a question of talent, not taxes. Washington, DC is a very high tax location. Massachusetts is still frequently called Taxachusetts because of its high tax rates. But they are both attractive quite a few migrants because of the nature of employment opportunities in those areas. As noted above, Michigan's young population do not compare very favorably with the youth of quite a few other states in terms of educational attainment. We have some strong universities in Michigan but the overall level of attainment is not unusual.

It's not a question of talent or taxes, but priorities in Michigan.

What do the Delmarva region and Massachusetts both have in common that Michigan doesn't? That's right, they have strong,healthy urban cores, state of the art infrastructure and are socially progressive

Companies want to be in environment that's not hostile to diversity and in an environment that offers amenities they can impress their clients and potential employees with [[you're not impressing anyone when they get off the freeway from the airport and pull into the Fairlane Office Park or Southfield Town Center, as that's in every suburb across America). For example, look at the companies that are based in NYC [[no explanation needed there, it's an amazing city).

Once Michigan has a strong/healthy urban core, invests in 21st century infrastructure and embraces socially progressive policies, then maybe it will be able to compete with states such as Massachusetts, New York, and the Delmarva region.

The talent simply moves where the jobs are. Once companies are willing to invest capital into Michigan, the jobs will follow and so will the talent.

[compn]

-Only 25% of the population has a degree, compared to 28% nationally. We generally don't give a shit about education here, except in the case of wealthy suburban school districts. I see dumb people. Fucking everywhere.

we care about edumacashun. remember michigun banned affirmative action?

we r smarter now.

[MikeyinBrooklyn]

The Washington, DC area is singularly prosperous due to the very, very, very large amount of federal money that we send to be spent there. If we had a million more very well paid federal workers in Michigan- and the tens of thousands of lawyers, lobbyists and staff to go with it, our economy would be a tad more prosperous, too.

Massachusetts does have a strong economy, but for a lot of reasons we don't compare directly with. They have 10 major colleges in and adjacent to the city. They have [[and have had) a much more densely populated city than we ever have, even post WW2. That density has supported neighborhood retail, substantial transit, and keeps more people in close proximity to downtown activities than we have in spread out SE Michigan. Lastly, they are also the state capitol. Strangely, for a state with a population less than ours, they have more state workers than we do. So, imagine the population of Lansing [[or more) moving into Detroit. Like NYC, direct comparisons of Boston to Detroit is comparing us to an economy that would never be ours if we had a blank check and an eternity to spend it.

About New York, the vast majority of the state above Westchester County is in a terrible economic condition, except for the Albany area, home to the state government and a major university. NYC is economically unique, with an extreme density, 50M tourists a year, and many other singular attractions that keep it humming. And although it "thrives" in many ways, they are in substantially more debt than per capita than we are. They just have more revenue, so it has not reached a "critical mass" yet. A drive through Troy, Schenectady, Utica, Rochester and Buffalo is to see what a modern depression looks like.

I should also remind everyone that plenty of cities that are not famed for being socially progressive [[Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, St. Louis, OKC) have much stronger economies than we do.

Companies, like individuals, act in their own self-interest. When taxes and murders both occur less often in Detroit, it will be a more appealing place to run a business. When a Detroit high school diploma means you can read and write and do basic math, people will want to hire Detroiters. Where you open a business matters. Detroit needs to stop being it's own liability and the companies will follow. Part of fixing Detroit includes not placing the blame for our own problems on jerks in other places not sending us enough of their money. The light at the end of the tunnel will not be visible until the pity party ends, and we accept that Detroit's problems are substantially self-inflicted and fixable here. And we will not fix them by envying or hating or stealing or copying the assets of any other city. We need to fix and improve here, ourselves. A prosperous and peaceful Detroit will not look like DC or New York or Boston or Chicago- those cities do not look like each other. It will look like Detroit, with it's own personality, economy, and culture. Happy New Year.

[Bham1982]

My neighbors, my coworkers, even my doctors I see, or person taking my order in a restaurant is an expat from Michigan. Throw a bunch a data at me, but that's got to be taking a toll. You don't walk in an office in Detroit and have a quarter of the staff raise their hands and say they are from Illinois.. But I'd love to see Detroit become an economic powerhouse of professional jobs. That's where the money is.

Except that Illinois has even lower proportional population growth than Michigan. How do you explain that?

http://www.census.gov/popest/data/st...013/index.html

People move where there are jobs. The unemployment rates in Michigan and Illinois are virtually identical, hence both states are in trouble.

http://www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm

[Bham1982]

What do the Delmarva region and Massachusetts both have in common that Michigan doesn't? That's right, they have strong,healthy urban cores, state of the art infrastructure and are socially progressive

No, it's that these places have jobs.

How do you explain that Texas, year after year, has the biggest population and job growth? Texas probably has pound-for-pound the least urban cities in the U.S., has poor infrastructure, and is socially backward. It's $, not bike lanes.

Virginia, BTW, does not really fit your three criterion well either. Maryland and Mass, yes.

[illwill]

I cant wait to leave. Started working on a network security graduate classes a year and a semester ago. Makes no sense to quit now... I'm almost done. Take my certs and degrees and be on my way. 8 years ago they jammed me with 5K in drivers responsibility fees. They were bleeding $$$ and manufactured creative new ways to screw people. I was one of em. Plus I don't trust recent Michigan politics. That lame duck shit was fuct. There are people out there with religious/conservative moral convictions I want nothing to do with, unfortunately they like to force their morals on everybody else when they should mind their damn business. I feel like these fuckwits have gained traction here lately. My entire adult life this place has been in recession. It sucks. When i was a kid I liked Detroit mostly because it was lawless. I could do and did whatever i wanted. Not a kid anymore. I live in a boring suburb and have no biz in the city except a few restaurants and the occasional show or ballgame.

Your reasoning is EXACTLY why cities such as Chicago, Toronto, Minneapolis and Ann Arbor are popular destinations among young & older professionals seeking a progressive urban lifestyle. And for those who want a slice of the "gritty life", Chicago especially, is in fact a very edgy city for those who are wanting that "lawless lifestyle" as you put it. Just read the newspapers or watch the 6 o'clock news. Crazy wild city!

Most people that are able to afford a high-quality lifestyle; one that offers vibrant-walkable neighborhoods, excellent city services, clean graffiti-less buildings, culture, nightlife, public transportation etc... will continue to see those cities as some of the few areas in the Great Lakes Region that offer a high-level quality of lifestyle.

I appreciate the way Detroit embraces its "realness, edginess, gritty-thing" but in fact, the people with money, college degrees, families etc... aren't buying it. We need to clean up these buildings, curb crime and make Detroit a city that's CLEAN and not catered to people who come here on the weekends to party but for people who actually live here. Forget keeping it real! Nightclubs and all those good things are exciting but it's the people and neighborhood density that makes cities vibrant.

[DetroitPlanner]

8 years ago they jammed me with 5K in drivers responsibility fees.

How many drunk driving tickets do you have to pay that kind of coin???

Maybe you need to reassess more than your address. You have no right to drive drunk as it impacts dammed near every other person on the road with you. You may see it as morals, I see it as living up to the responsibility to others you agreed to when you applied for a driver's licence.

My brother was a habitual drunk driver among other things. He is now dead from bad decisions. Don't follow his lead.