Economists Raise U.S. Outlook as Recession Fades

[East Detroit]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=a52y8O9Do928

July 10 [[Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy will expand faster than previously forecast in the second half of this year and in 2010 as a revival in consumer spending signals an end to the recession, a Bloomberg News survey showed.

[Retroit]

Rule #1: Never believe the "experts".

[hudkina]

Rule #2: The experts are right more often than not.

[lilpup]

"jobless recovery"

[Detroitnerd]

Yeah. The recession will end -- for the rich. Unfortunately, for us in the rank and file, the jobs won't be coming back. Sadly, the "experts" will still have their jobs.

[Retroit]

Well, since apparently anyone can be a "credible expert", I might as well expound a bit.

I think the "recovery" will be short-lived [[a few years, at most) and will fall off as the Stimulus funding runs out. In a sense, it will be a boom like many other booms that we've had, only shallower since there is no underlining sustainable wealth creation taking place.

Our country has lost so much manufacturing industry that a rise in consumer spending doesn't mean what it used to. So what?... foreign workers are going to be able to make more products for us and the domestic importing corporations will see a slight rise in their share price. This is not a true recovery.

Our country is in serious trouble, and it is greater than the current downturn. We have basically handed our sources of wealth creation [[manufacturing) over to foreign countries. Free trade was foolish; it is not how America became wealthy. We need to bring back the tariff [[import tax) and/or require goods imported from foreign countries to be made in accordance to our laws.

And to tie this in to Detroit: as a manufacturing city, we will be among the hardest hit [[as if this isn't apparent already).

[EastSider]

What a pile of prevaracations in the actual article, including a bunch of crap from Fed presidents. I wonder how many of the "experts" in the survey saw the crash coming in 2007?

Growth will average 1.5 percent in the July-to-December period, compared with last month’s 1.2 percent projection,

Whoo hoo! We sure done made it, Ma! We, we're going to grow a whopping three-tenths of a percent more than they thought last month! We're rich!!

Signs of stability in the housing market, improving consumer confidence and smaller declines in auto sales are reinforcing forecasts for gains in consumer purchases. While the recovery is likely to be tempered by job cuts and shrinking household wealth, most economists said a second stimulus package won’t be needed.

There's the key, by George! Smaller declines! Captain, the ship is still sinking, but it's not sinking as fast as before!

“We are on the cusp of stabilization,� said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS Securities Inc. in Stamford, Connecticut.

On the cusp of stabilization? What does that mean, exactly? If we are on the cusp of something, we're not on that something yet. If it's the cusp of stabilization, then we aren't stabilized yet. If we're not stabilized yet, we're still declining.

The clue is to look at the "signs of stability in the housing market" and the "shrinking household wealth." The signs of stability they're trying hard to trumpet are that housing prices aren't falling as fast in some markets as before. Prices are still falling, but they're trying hard to put on a happy face and make a smaller decline mean the same as an actual increase.

[Bobl]

Retroit is correct:
"...Our country is in serious trouble, and it is greater than the current downturn. We have basically handed our sources of wealth creation [[manufacturing) over to foreign countries. Free trade was foolish; it is not how America became wealthy. We need to bring back the tariff [[import tax) and/or require goods imported from foreign countries to be made in accordance to our laws..."

The underline was installed by me. The logic is so obvious: "Fair Trade" is/was the way to go, if the welfare of our country, its' citizens, and workers/consumers is considered.
"Free Trade" was simply a redistribution of wealth, away from the American worker. It got corporations out from under fair health and safety regulations, and reduced the ability of the worker/consumer to sustain the greatest contributor to economic stability, which is consumer spending.

How many manufacturing workers will be purchasing new cars, after their wages have been reduced by a third to a half?
How many fewer trips to the restaurant, vacations, barber shops, gyms?
Who will provide our defense necessities?

[Sstashmoo]

Bobl, It's nice to see someone here "get's it".

These folks keep talking about the economy going to get better here, I ask, How? It's like handing someone a bucket with a hole in it and then telling them: "Just keep dumping water in, it will fill up eventually" Our bucket has a huge hole in it [[the trade situation). And that same hole emptied the bucket in the first place.