Duh enda duh car?

[canuck]

Here's an article about a long term trend in automotive use in the United States. I like the funny bit about car companies now calling themselz "Mobility" companies. Is there a way to make GM or the other 2 get back into buses or other transit in a serious way? Is carpooling bigger than 10 or 20 years ago?

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/30/su...anted=all&_r=0

[wolverine]

Many young folks are also moving to cities. Part of less vehicles miles traveled may be people owning a car, but opting not to take it to work or on short trips or heading out for the night. My friend the other day was complaining about the bus transfer he'd have to make to reach a bar. Meanwhile his car sat there on the street. On that note, there's the social factor of people getting together and not needing cars. Maybe going to places closer to home and in cities, taking mass transit or walking instead of getting into a car to head to the bar.

[rb336]

I don't think I have heard either Mercedes or Ford [[the two cited as rebranding themselves as such)refer to themselves as "mobility" companies, nor have I seen either expand their product line. I'm sure Ms. Rosenthal is simply unaware of the fact that Ford and Daimler-Benz have always made commercial vehicles. She fails to correlate the increasing number of young people chosing to live in urban, transit-heavy areas. Car culture may change, but it won't go away. She hasn't talked to young adults in Detroit or LA, but seems to draw her anecdotes, as others who have heralded the demise of the car, from places where car culture never really existed in the first place [[like NYC, London, Chicago, San Francisco)

[DetroitPlanner]

This phenomena is not exactly a secret. We have major policy decisions to make in order to keep us mobile in the future.

The reason for this shift is simple economics. School cost more and wages are stagnet. This means more of a young persons dollars are going to education. In addition, youngsters value the freedom given to them by cellular technology so that has an impact as well.

However, this changes our culture, and our culture is based upon paying for transportation primarilly though taxes derrived from the gas tax. This too is complicated by the cost of driving being increased so now people are demanding better gas mileage cars and driving fewer miles. Not exactly a bad thing, exept when you consider we have not raised the taxes coming from the gas tax for years. It is still only 18 cents to the feds and 19 cents that are distributed for MDOT, Cities, Villages, local transit agencies and counties per gallon. Exactly the same amount as when gas was about $1 in the mid 1990's.

Add all of this together and you have less money coming into the system but more demand to fix it, add additional capacity to transit and highways, rails to trails, travel demand management programs such as rideshare.... Add in the fact that a dollar today does not buy you what a dollar did in 1995 and you have a heap of trouble.

Policy makers are also afraid of change. This means that the revenue will continue to decline as fewer drive, cars get better gas mileage and opt for fewer trips in general. More of the trips we will make will be made by transit, bicycle, or walking. Yet with less funding, and with more demand on the system nothing is sustainable in the transportation world.

Carpooling is bigger now than it was 20 years ago. We can thank the internet for that. Many services are available for carpooling that are run by governments, non-profits, and private companies. Even the much hated MDOT and SEMCOG have had these programs and they see continued increase in demand as dollars get tighter and jobs start to get clustered in places like downtown. In addition to carpooling we now have carshare programs as well which reduce he need for folks to have cars. The less folks that have cars, and the more they need to think about actually laying out money, the more they choose to walk or use transit instead of renting a car for a few hours.

Off my soapbox.

[wolverine]

Meanwhile...billions will be spent on freeway widening.

[ghettopalmetto]

I'm sure there's a whole host of factors at work here. There are skyrocketing costs for higher education. Housing prices heavily tilted toward those who are "already in the game". The price of gasoline has more than tripled in the past 20 years. And wages for us working schmucks remain relatively flat when adjusted for inflation. We just don't have tens of thousands of dollars to sink into depreciating assets.

Is it cause for alarm? No, I don't think so. For decades, we've been one of the few cultures wealthy enough to be able to drive everywhere for the simplest of tasks--the Canadians and Australians being the other major culprits. Like it or not, the long-term economic trends we're seeing are going to force a major sea change in how our country functions. I see us evolving back to an era of more densely-populated cities and towns, more walking, and less driving. Obviously, some cities and states are better prepared for this shift than others. Some will decry such a shift as *gasp* "European". I don't think it's a bad thing--after all, this is how the United States largely functioned before World War II, and the massive government-sponsored social engineering program that developed afterward.

[Bham1982]

The reason young people aren't buying cars is because they have no money. They have the lowest savings rate, the highest college debt, and the lowest employment rate of any generation in recent history. They also have the lowest family formation rate in history.

Then you have brainless commeters like Richard Florida saying it's because young people are moving to cities. They see that young people haven't been buying new cars [[or houses, for that matter) and then proclaim that the era of the car [[or era of the house) as passed.

Problem is that they're trying to link unrelated issues. Home purchases and car purchases are the biggest expenses for most people, and are heavily correlated with feeling stable financially and in terms of one's overall life situation. When you control for these two issues, suddenly the generation has similar behaviors as previous ones.

The cohort of young people in cities often has higher car ownership and home ownership rates than the overall Gen Y cohort. They aren't typical, at all. The typical Gen Y isn't buying a new car because they're broke, not because they're in a city [[for the broke cohort, usually they aren't in a city).

[Hermod]

The first "gas crisis" hit after the Yom Kippur war oin the early 1970s when gas was rationed and the price quickly went from 27 cents a gallon to 52 cents a gallon.

About 1976, I was on a flight to Detroit heading up to Warren [[TACOM) on business. My seatmate was an employee of US DOT. He told me that as soon as gas hi a buck a gallon, Americans would abandon their cars in droves and use buses and rail.

I told him that Americans were too attached to their cars.

[Hermod]

The price of gasoline has more than tripled in the past 20 years.

My perspective:

1957: regular leaded gas $0.269 a gallon
2013: regular unleaded [[more expensive to refine) gas $3.379 a gallon

12.6 times more expensive


1957: First class stamp 3 cents
2013: First class stamp 41 cents

13.7 times more expensive

[preserve]

Watching the folks on bikes during last weeks downpour made me appreciate
my car.

[Honky Tonk]

The reason young people aren't buying cars is because they have no money. They have the lowest savings rate, the highest college debt, and the lowest employment rate of any generation in recent history. They also have the lowest family formation rate in history.

Then you have brainless commeters like Richard Florida saying it's because young people are moving to cities. They see that young people haven't been buying new cars [[or houses, for that matter) and then proclaim that the era of the car [[or era of the house) as passed.

Problem is that they're trying to link unrelated issues. Home purchases and car purchases are the biggest expenses for most people, and are heavily correlated with feeling stable financially and in terms of one's overall life situation. When you control for these two issues, suddenly the generation has similar behaviors as previous ones.

The cohort of young people in cities often has higher car ownership and home ownership rates than the overall Gen Y cohort. They aren't typical, at all. The typical Gen Y isn't buying a new car because they're broke, not because they're in a city [[for the broke cohort, usually they aren't in a city).

I don't totally agree with your conclusions. If "young people" have $1700 a month to spend on a cracker-box sized apartment @ the Broderick, without building any equity, $7 cups of coffee, and $10 Ho' lettuce, they certainly have money to spend on cars, houses, and swimming pools. I think it's more a question of a different set of priorities and values. Also "the job" has changed dramatically in our lifetime. It seems to me, young people want to have the freedom to be able to pick up and move to new locations, where as our generation was more into homesteading, then accumulating as much material goods as possible.

[Hermod]

It seems to me, young people want to have the freedom to be able to pick up and move to new locations, where as our generation was more into homesteading, then accumulating as much material goods as possible.

Well, they accumulate a whole lot more dollar-wise, but it is all in small, portable stuff like iPhones, iPads, Bose sound systems, etc rather than large bedroom suites and the like.

In 1957, I went away to college with a large suitcase and a small suitcase. My granddaughter went away to college in 2011 with two trips of my son's van. We just didn't have microwaves, mini-fridges, sound docks, computers, etc. I went through four years of engineering with just a slide rule.

[NativeDetroiter]

I don't totally agree with your conclusions. If "young people" have $1700 a month to spend on a cracker-box sized apartment @ the Broderick, without building any equity, $7 cups of coffee, and $10 Ho' lettuce, they certainly have money to spend on cars, houses, and swimming pools. I think it's more a question of a different set of priorities and values. Also "the job" has changed dramatically in our lifetime. It seems to me, young people want to have the freedom to be able to pick up and move to new locations, where as our generation was more into homesteading, then accumulating as much material goods as possible.

The young people with enough money for the $1700 a month apartments are a very small percentage of Gen Y. These are the people with the connections to land high paying jobs right out of school. However, you are right about this small group within Gen Y being able to afford a car.

The rest of Gen Y is working hard for less spending power than their parents had. They buy Ipads and $7 coffees because those are the only luxuries they can afford in their young years. As a member of this generation myself, I can say we were promised a very prosperous life when we were children, but it hasn't panned out. We now have to have more realistic expectations. Houses and brand new cars are still too expensive for many of us. Many of us still rely on our parents for shelter and health insurance. I would not be surprised if some of the seemingly wealthy members of gen y are still relying on wealthy parents to take care of some of their expenses. I can only imagine that things will get worse as wealthy baby boomers continue to retire.

[Honky Tonk]

The young people with enough money for the $1700 a month apartments are a very small percentage of Gen Y. These are the people with the connections to land high paying jobs right out of school. However, you are right about this small group within Gen Y being able to afford a car.

The rest of Gen Y is working hard for less spending power than their parents had. They buy Ipads and $7 coffees because those are the only luxuries they can afford in their young years. As a member of this generation myself, I can say we were promised a very prosperous life when we were children, but it hasn't panned out. We now have to have more realistic expectations. Houses and brand new cars are still too expensive for many of us. Many of us still rely on our parents for shelter and health insurance. I would not be surprised if some of the seemingly wealthy members of gen y are still relying on wealthy parents to take care of some of their expenses. I can only imagine that things will get worse as wealthy baby boomers continue to retire.

Thanx for the insite. "The job" HAS changed dramatically, though, with offshoring, and global competition. I thought I had a rough road coming up. It has to be doubly tough to make a living these days. No job security as far as I can tell.

[TexasT]

I think it's more a question of a different set of priorities and values. Also "the job" has changed dramatically in our lifetime. It seems to me, young people want to have the freedom to be able to pick up and move to new locations, where as our generation was more into homesteading, then accumulating as much material goods as possible.

This is true for me. I have little interest in the big house and fancy car [[very unTexan of me). I bought because I couldn't find a place to rent downtown [[ultimately, I did want to buy a place downtown but not for a few more years) and if I could get by without a car at all, I certainly would [[instead, I have a low mileage lease).

Very few of my friends in their 20s WANT to buy, independent of whether they can, because like you said, they want more freedom at this point. You never know what life is going to be like in 2, 3, 5 years. Why root yourself somewhere? I've lived in 4 states in the past 5 years...I'd have screwed myself if I'd bought in my early or mid 20s.

[DetroitPlanner]

I doubt there are too many young folks who live in $1,700 a month apartments by themselves. I would say that more the norm would be $600-$750 a month with a room-mate.

Every generation since the 1980's has had less money since the previous one. I am either a very young boomer or a very old X. I know I don't have it as good as those who are only 5 years older than I am, but I also know that I have a lot more than those who are 5-10 years younger than I am [[in general, of course there are exceptions).

[wolverine]

I don't totally agree with your conclusions. If "young people" have $1700 a month to spend on a cracker-box sized apartment @ the Broderick, without building any equity, $7 cups of coffee, and $10 Ho' lettuce, they certainly have money to spend on cars, houses, and swimming pools. I think it's more a question of a different set of priorities and values. Also "the job" has changed dramatically in our lifetime. It seems to me, young people want to have the freedom to be able to pick up and move to new locations, where as our generation was more into homesteading, then accumulating as much material goods as possible.

If you are paying that much in rent in most places and are young, it's unlikely you own a car. Without a car it's possible to afford a bit more excessive lifestyle on a middle class salary. Of course you may need a car which is why I pay $20 per month for 160 driving miles for a carshare rental. I never use all of those. But if you live close to work and can bike, walk, or take transit, it doesn't make much sense to own a car.

[gnome]

my daughter in Chicago does not have a drivers' license and is dead set against ever having to learn how to drive. She likes not having to spend money on car payments, insurance and parking.

However, while the above statement may seem in support of the OP's link; I think the writer of the piece hasn't done proper research on automobile purchasing.

The author incorrectly assumes new car purchases are the only way people buy cars. Sorry, the used car market in booming. Cars last a long, long time nowadays and in is not uncommon to find a perfectly presentable vehicle with a 100,000 or even 200,000 miles.

in the olden days, a car rusted out after 50K on the odo.

[twodjr]

Bham1982:
The reason young people aren't buying cars is because they have no money.

That doesn't explain this:

“What most intrigues me is that rates of car ownership per household and per person started to come down two to three years before the downturn,” said Michael Sivak, who studies the trend and who is a research professor at the University of Michigan’s Transportation Research Institute. “I think that means something more fundamental is going on.”

I'm a young person who lives car-free in Detroit. True, I don't make a lot of money, but even if I were making 3 or 4x what I make now, a car, insurance, gas, maintenance is the last thing I'd waste my money on. And I have a lot of friends who feel the same way.

[daddeeo]

What? You expect people to sprout wings and fly? You'll always need a car around here.

[Det_ard]

The comments from the 20-somethings sound a lot like what I thought, and heard, when I was a city-dwelling, move-around-alot, subway-riding 20-something. Then I became a 30-something and did things that are commonly seen in that age range. Then a 40-something, and I have the suburban house and 3-car garage and those motorized things that go in it, and horrors, I like it.

Short version: 20-somethings, don't assume your preferences and priorities will never change. They almost always do.

[Honky Tonk]

The comments from the 20-somethings sound a lot like what I thought, and heard, when I was a city-dwelling, move-around-alot, subway-riding 20-something. Then I became a 30-something and did things that are commonly seen in that age range. Then a 40-something, and I have the suburban house and 3-car garage and those motorized things that go in it, and horrors, I like it.

Short version: 20-somethings, don't assume your preferences and priorities will never change. They almost always do.

Reminds me of an Alice Cooper song, "I'm 40 and I LIKE it..."

[twodjr]

I don't doubt that my preferences will change. But more and more people today are driving less than ever before; those habits will carry through to the future, and most other trends affecting personal car use are working to decrease automobile travel, not increase it.

Also, if you're 40 today, that means you were 20 in 1993.. I'm think the world from 2013-2033 will look a lot different than from 1993-2013. I wouldn't bet on today's 20somethings making the suburban shift you describe in nearly as large of numbers as your age cohort.

[Whitehouse]

doh or duh?

[canuck]

The comments from the 20-somethings sound a lot like what I thought, and heard, when I was a city-dwelling, move-around-alot, subway-riding 20-something. Then I became a 30-something and did things that are commonly seen in that age range. Then a 40-something, and I have the suburban house and 3-car garage and those motorized things that go in it, and horrors, I like it.

Short version: 20-somethings, don't assume your preferences and priorities will never change. They almost always do.

Yes, you may also follow up on that thought ten years from now, decide to downsize on your lifestyle. You might decide those cars and the triple doors are something you can do without or are just plain tired of. I figure the many hours I spend in traffic between downtown and here will be better spent, and I will save on fuel etc... I will keep my SUV because I need it for work carrying tools but I would love to shrink a lot of unnecessary baggage wherever possible.

My 17 1/2 yr old son keeps pestering me for driver's ed. I told him to sell off a train set I bought for him and his younger brother a coupla years ago which they never played with. That is my revenge. If he wants it bad enough, he will hone some of those Dale Carnegie skills.

I think it is worth trying to instill a sense of responsibility about energy conservation and also a sense of freedom from heavy debt in our kids anyways. Plenty of folks in crowded cities of Europe do without the stuff we have on this continent and manage transit quite well. Intercity travel in Europe is way more convenient and cheap than it is here. I dont think we will be rid of cars because there will be better ways to generate power for them, but they do take up a big chunk of our personal debt. We have built so much around the idea of personal mobility and are now paying the price for a dilution of city dwelling we call the suburb.