First post-2010 Census estimates of city population to be released

[renf]

Later this morning, the Census Bureau will release their first real post-Census 2010 estimates of city population. They will report that the city of Detroit lost about 4500 residents since April, 2010. Most local governments in Michigan, I believe, lost population since Census 2010.

[Crumbled_pavement]

FOUR THOUSAND FIVE HUNDRED RESIDENTS? SINCE 4/2010?? Or since last month? I can assure you we lost far more than any measly 4,500 residents.

[TexasT]

The figures show Detroit’s population dropped .7%, or 4,726 residents, between 2011 and 2012, bringing it to a total of 701,475.

http://motorcitymuckraker.com/2013/0...700000-people/

That's definitely less than I expected.

[Cincinnati_Kid]

http://motorcitymuckraker.com/2013/0...700000-people/

That's definitely less than I expected.

Once Detroit goes thru bankruptcy, the population will drop even further.

[Bham1982]

So Detroit's current population is probably in the mid-690's.

Assuming trends remain constant, Detroit's population in the next Census will be around 660,000 or so.

[Eber Brock Ward]

FOUR THOUSAND FIVE HUNDRED RESIDENTS? SINCE 4/2010?? Or since last month? I can assure you we lost far more than any measly 4,500 residents.

Lost a lot, but gained residents, too, in the neighborhoods that are doing well. Grandmont-Rosedale is especially re-filling back in.

I wouldn't be surprised if we are near or past bottom, what with all of the thousands of residential units coming online downtown and midtown, up to New Center and Palmer Park.

[Bham1982]

I wouldn't be surprised if we are near or past bottom, what with all of the thousands of residential units coming online downtown and midtown, up to New Center and Palmer Park.

There's very little new housing construction in the city limits. Since 2010, only a handful of units have been permitted [[you can look it up on the Census site).

I mean, granted, the future may be different, but the current situation doesn't show much permits activity.

[Cincinnati_Kid]

Lost a lot, but gained residents, too, in the neighborhoods that are doing well. Grandmont-Rosedale is especially re-filling back in.

I wouldn't be surprised if we are near or past bottom, what with all of the thousands of residential units coming online downtown and midtown, up to New Center and Palmer Park.

All this sounds great, but until they get a handle on the crime problem as well as the schools, more people will stay away than move in, regardless how cheap housing prices are. Detroit won't experience a real population boom until those things get cleaned up

[Cincinnati_Kid]

There's very little new housing construction in the city limits. Since 2010, only a handful of units have been permitted [[you can look it up on the Census site).

I mean, granted, the future may be different, but the current situation doesn't show much permits activity.

That's because most of Detroit's housing stock is over 50-100 years old and already been built out. The only place where new construction could occur is on empty parcels of land where houses have already been razed and the biggest challenge is finding a developer to re-invest in Detroit.

[Spartan]

Good thread title

Here's an article from the News which dives a bit into the move to "place" living, which is definitely a good thing for the city of Detroit.

http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20130523/METRO/305230320/Census-Detroit-population-loss-slows-some-suburbs-see-growth

[iheartthed]

In related news:

Urban renewal? Census figures show cities surging

New census estimates show that most of the nation's largest cities further enhanced their allure last year, posting strong population growth for a second straight year.

Big cities surpassed the rate of growth of their surrounding suburbs at an even faster clip, a sign of America's continuing preference for urban living after the economic downturn quelled enthusiasm for less-crowded expanses.

Farther-out suburbs known as exurbs saw their growth slip to 0.35 percent, the lowest in more than a decade.

Economists generally had played down the recent city boom as an aberration, predicting that young adults in the recovering economy would soon be back on the move after years of staying put in big cities. But the widening gains for cities in 2012 indicate that young people — as well as would-be retirees seeking quieter locales — are playing it safe for a while longer in dense urban cores, where jobs may be easier to find and keep.

Prior to 2011, suburbs had consistently outpaced big cities since 1920, with the rise of the automobile.


http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013...s-surging?lite

[Eber Brock Ward]

There's very little new housing construction in the city limits. Since 2010, only a handful of units have been permitted [[you can look it up on the Census site).

I mean, granted, the future may be different, but the current situation doesn't show much permits activity.

See the "Non-Gilbert Activity" thread. A few thousand units of housing in there, at least. Add in the single-family rehabs taking place in select neighborhoods, and it's a positive movement to balance against the negative movement.

Enough to overcome the negative movement? Not yet, but then again there have only been a trickle of major new rehabbed residential projects over the last year [[Palmer Park, Broderick, Auburn, etc.).

The bulk of these units will be coming online in 2013-14

[Eber Brock Ward]

In related news:

HA! For all the people that denied it, POW, right in the kisser!

[Lowell]

If metropolitan insurance fairness were somehow instituted whereby inner city residents weren't so severely punished and the city income tax was either removed or enforced, the population of Detroit would grow greatly -- not that people would move in so much as those actually living there would be fully counted.

As it is, it is commonly accepted that many residents claim residency and voting eligibility elsewhere simply to avoid those penalties or to get their kids in suburban schools and activities. In essence they are like the poor the city is stuck caring for -- provide no revenue for the city but add to its expenses.

Too bad there isn't a way to calculate that loss.

[Bham1982]

See the "Non-Gilbert Activity" thread. A few thousand units of housing in there, at least.

Maybe one day, in the future, but not now.

I'll pull the permits for Detroit, which are current through April 2013.

[Bham1982]

Good thread title

Here's an article from the News which dives a bit into the move to "place" living, which is definitely a good thing for the city of Detroit.

http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20130523/METRO/305230320/Census-Detroit-population-loss-slows-some-suburbs-see-growth

The fastest growing cities in Metro Detroit are the most sprawling, and least urban: Macomb Twp, Lyon Twp, and Oakland Twp.

The fastest declining cities in Metro Detroit are basically the least sprawling, and most urban: Detroit and most neighborhood communities. Even immigrant communities like Dearborn and Hamtramck are declining.

The only difference now compared to a few years ago is that the relative difference in the growth rates [[between sprawl and urban) have narrowed in most places. This is completely logical, because housing construction has been basically at a standstill for the last few years, and exurban growth is predicated on housing construction.

[Eber Brock Ward]

The fastest growing cities in Metro Detroit are the most sprawling, and least urban: Macomb Twp, Lyon Twp, and Oakland Twp.

The fastest declining cities in Metro Detroit are basically the least sprawling, and most urban: Detroit and most neighborhood communities. Even immigrant communities like Dearborn and Hamtramck are declining.

The only difference now compared to a few years ago is that the relative difference in the growth rates [[between sprawl and urban) have narrowed in most places. This is completely logical, because housing construction has been basically at a standstill for the last few years, and exurban growth is predicated on housing construction.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=ss8LDBNcsWc

[Bham1982]

Ok so official Census numbers:

Detroit has 71 units permitted in 2013, of which 25 units are in 5+ unit [[apartment) buildings

In 2012, the Detroit year-end total was 146 units permitted, of which 136 were in 5+ unit buildings.

In contrast, Macomb Twp. has 102 units permitted so far in 2012, and 514 units permitted for all of 2012 [[100% single family permits).

http://censtats.census.gov/bldg/bldgprmt.shtml

[renf]

Here is the Census Bureau url with 2012 population estimates for all cities in Michigan and the USA.
http://www.census.gov/popest/data/ci...012/index.html

This September, the Census Bureau will release 2012 American Community Survey data showing the characteristics of Detroit residents. We will be able to see if there has been an migration of young college graduates into the city and, to some degree, analyzing who is leaving. In 2012, Detroit retained its rank as the nation's 18th largest city. Quite likely El Paso will pass Detroit in population size by the time of the next census. Texas cities have annexed their potential suburban rings.

[Newdetroit]

Estimated Current Population:	635,872
Population:	673,342
White Population:	80,042
Black Population:	571,308
Hispanic Population:	48,027
Asian Population:	5,969
Hawaiian Population:	609
Indian Population:	8,007
Other Population:	24,643
Male Population:	317,392
Female Population:	355,950
Avg House Value:	$76,384.00
Avg Household Income:	$26,801.80
Avg Persons Per Household:	2.51
Median Age:	35.76
Median Age [[Male):	34.06
Median Age [[Female):	37.17

[Jason]

Great news!

If people leaving slows down a bit and people coming in continues to increase, within a few years we could see Detroit gain population for once. It'll be a big symbolic moment when that happens.

[jt1]

Here is the Census Bureau url with 2012 population estimates for all cities in Michigan and the USA.
http://www.census.gov/popest/data/ci...012/index.html

This September, the Census Bureau will release 2012 American Community Survey data showing the characteristics of Detroit residents. We will be able to see if there has been an migration of young college graduates into the city and, to some degree, analyzing who is leaving. In 2012, Detroit retained its rank as the nation's 18th largest city. Quite likely El Paso will pass Detroit in population size by the time of the next census. Texas cities have annexed their potential suburban rings.

Let's deal with insurance redlining in the city and we would see a nice boost. It may not result in additional residents but I'm willing to guess that, at at least, 50% of the people that live downtown, midtown and neighboring communities lost addresses elsewhere to greatly reduce their insurance

[Lowell]

Let's deal with insurance redlining in the city and we would see a nice boost. It may not result in additional residents but I'm willing to guess that, at at least, 50% of the people that live downtown, midtown and neighboring communities lost addresses elsewhere to greatly reduce their insurance

You blew by my post jt1.

If metropolitan insurance fairness were somehow instituted whereby inner city residents weren't so severely punished and the city income tax was either removed or enforced, the population of Detroit would grow greatly -- not that people would move in so much as those actually living there would be fully counted.

As it is, it is commonly accepted that many residents claim residency and voting eligibility elsewhere simply to avoid those penalties or to get their kids in suburban schools and activities. In essence they are like the poor the city is stuck caring for -- provide no revenue for the city but add to its expenses.

Too bad there isn't a way to calculate that loss.

[jt1]

You blew by my post jt1.

Imitation...flattery, that whole thing.

[313WX]

In the parts of Detroit I drive through everyday [[much of the east side, SW Detroit), I'm noticing a continued rapid decline. I ocassionally detour through midtown as I commute across town, and I notice some improvements, but certainly not nearly enough to counter-balance to rapid decline of the other 95% the city. Once we begin to see Chicago loop-type improvements, then I might change my mind.