What if Detroit had enough cops?

**nain rouge** · February-06-13, 11:07 PM

Let's say a regional or state fund is made to either a) employ more Detroit cops, or b) employ and deploy more Wayne County/Tri-County [a fictitious idea]/State Police within Detroit. Because staffing is finally adequate, the cops are able respond to calls like white on rice.

What happens at this point? Does gentrification accelerate? Do neighborhoods like Grandmont/Rosedale or Morningside immediately stabilize?

To me, it seems like there is a massive desire to revitalize Detroit, and if we could just get enough police out there, we might just see dramatic returns on the investment. Instead, I feel like we're sitting on our thumbs waiting for magic to happen.

**MidTownMs** · February-06-13, 11:20 PM

Originally Posted by nain rouge

Let's say a regional or state fund is made to either a) employ more Detroit cops, or b) employ and deploy more Wayne County/Tri-County [a fictitious idea]/State Police within Detroit. Because staffing is finally adequate, the cops are able respond to calls like white on rice.

What happens at this point? Does gentrification accelerate? Do neighborhoods like Grandmont/Rosedale or Morningside immediately stabilize?

To me, it seems like there is a massive desire to revitalize Detroit, and if we could just get enough police out there, we might just see dramatic returns on the investment. Instead, I feel like we're sitting on our thumbs waiting for magic to happen.

How many more would you consider enough? One Hundred more, One Thousand more. The DPD can't even keep ONE police chief. So how many, in your opinion, would you consider enough?

**Drexciya68** · February-06-13, 11:45 PM

I thought there were enough cops in the late 1970s when it seemed like crooks started talking over blocks, neighborhoods and also throughout the city's administration?

**Gannon** · February-06-13, 11:54 PM

Then pigs would fly.

Seriously. IF the police department could afford more bodies, they'd surely be able to afford a bunch of helicopters like Los Angeles has...so we can get live video of high-speed pursuits and hostage situations.

**Gannon** · February-06-13, 11:55 PM

And why's it got to be WHITE rice, huh?!

That's the kind of code-speak that keeps some people on edge around here.

**mwilbert** · February-07-13, 12:26 AM

Any such estimate is just an estimate, but there is empirical work on police strength vs. crime rates for different types of crime. Let just take homicide because the numbers are easy and the crime is highly visible. Detroit has a homicide rate of between 50 and 60 per 100000. The national homicide rate is something like 5 per 1000. So to get Detroit down to the national rate would require an improvement of a factor of 10. According to the estimates in http://emlab.berkeley.edu/~jmccrary/...ccrary2012.pdf that would require about 30,000 additional police. I suspect that is an overestimate, because their sample doesn't have any cities that expanded their police forces by a factor of 16!

It is probably unrealistic to expect a city with Detroit's demographics to be able to reach the national average. If we wanted to get down to where Atlanta is, which is about 17/100000, you would need about 9000 more police. Again this is out-of-sample and I would guess still probably an overestimate. Maybe 6000 more would be enough. Of course, you don't have to distribute them evenly--you could make the neighborhoods you want to be attractive quite safe with many fewer police.

**Wesley Mouch** · February-07-13, 12:27 AM

Heading towards a proper ratio of cops to citizens/criminals would of course be good. But unless this is combined with a reorganization of the department and the civic administration, it wouldn't be enough.

Success will not be the result of a single action. Success will be possible only when many things happen.

**Honky Tonk** · February-07-13, 05:24 AM

Originally Posted by Gannon

Then pigs would fly.

Seriously. IF the police department could afford more bodies, they'd surely be able to afford a bunch of helicopters like Los Angeles has...so we can get live video of high-speed pursuits and hostage situations.

Manned helicopters came and went. They're too expensive to maintain. Drones are the way to go, cheaper and more effective.

**Honky Tonk** · February-07-13, 05:27 AM

Originally Posted by Gannon

And why's it got to be WHITE rice, huh?!

That's the kind of code-speak that keeps some people on edge around here.

Have another hit......

**Hermod** · February-07-13, 05:47 AM

At one time, New York with a then population of 6 million had 17,000 police.

Detroit maybe just needs to redeploy its force out of the headquarters building and into the streets.

**Gannon** · February-07-13, 07:02 AM

Originally Posted by Honky Tonk

Have another hit......

Thanks, don't mind if I do. Once an hour, anything more is hedging on over-medication unto recreation.

Cheers!

**coracle** · February-07-13, 07:08 AM

"Let's say a regional or state fund is made to either a) employ more Detroit cops, or b) employ and deploy more Wayne County/Tri-County [a fictitious idea]/State Police within Detroit."

"Let's say" that even a "fictitious idea" to benefit the city has to be pre-qualified on the basis somebody else pays for it. Who will sign up to contribute to a "fund" which would be controlled by the Mayor's Office/Council of Detroit. You could accurately predict the outcome - they will flush it away and want more.

**Crumbled_pavement** · February-07-13, 07:10 AM

Originally Posted by Wesley Mouch

Success will not be the result of a single action. Success will be possible only when many things happen.

Wow. I wish millions more people could comprehend this. Currently we argue whether to do this or that then never come to agreement so we end up doing nothing. That has been how this region has operated for 6 decades. It's going to take a variety of solutions being employed to get Detroit's crime rate under control. I suspect that will never happen because we haven't even gotten to the point of employing a single solution yet, let alone multiple solutions.

**canuck** · February-07-13, 07:10 AM

On violent crime reduction in Washington;

There are a couple of articles I picked up via skyscraperpage. There is little or no mention of them-o-graphics in these, gentrification of DC by white and black professionals but the city is changing fast. Heck there were fewer murders in DC than in Montreal since january 1st. But that wont last...

Does extra policing have anything to do with these numbers? Less drugs on the streets and cash incentives to "snitches" seem to help out.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinio...64b_story.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/...64b_story.html

**JBMcB** · February-07-13, 09:21 AM

Here we go:

1 - Reorg the department. Focus on violent crime, theft and vandalism. Don't worry about parking or drug use for now. Getting rid of the gang unit was a good first step - the entire department needs to be focusing on violent crime. Also, get civilians in to do paperwork - every able-bodied officer needs to be on the streets, not pushing paper.

2 - Start using data. Find the most crime-ridden neighborhoods and have cops walking the streets.

3 - Mandatory free pre-school for everyone, and not that head-start horsecrap. This works so well to bring crime rates down it's *unbelievable* it hasn't been instituted yet.

**Crumbled_pavement** · February-07-13, 09:41 AM

Originally Posted by JBMcB

Here we go:

1 - Reorg the department. Focus on violent crime, theft and vandalism. Don't worry about parking or drug use for now. Getting rid of the gang unit was a good first step - the entire department needs to be focusing on violent crime. Also, get civilians in to do paperwork - every able-bodied officer needs to be on the streets, not pushing paper.

2 - Start using data. Find the most crime-ridden neighborhoods and have cops walking the streets.

3 - Mandatory free pre-school for everyone, and not that head-start horsecrap. This works so well to bring crime rates down it's *unbelievable* it hasn't been instituted yet.

Bingo!

Some of the moronic crimes I've seen in the news over the years indicate that there is a vastly large population that isn't too bright, and therefore probably not too employable either. Add this with stricter law enforcement and tougher sentences, we could finally begin to decrease the crime rate.

Unfortunately, as I said in my last post, #1 would be pitted against #3, as if they are competing ideas and couldn't be implemented at the same time. Since neither side would win that argument, we'd be left doing what we always do -- nothing.

**davewindsor** · February-07-13, 10:04 AM

Pointless because the problem isn't the police. You need more prisons and a tougher justice system [[like the three strikes you're out law in California).

In 2010, Detroit had over 32.1 cops per 10K. Los Angeles had 25.7 per 10K. FBI crime reporting system http://www.governing.com/gov-data/sa...or-cities.html

Yet, Los Angeles has a much lower crime rate.

How is it that Detroit lost almost 200K people in the last couple years and has the same police resources, yet the crime/homicide rates keep going up?

What does this tell you? The problem is not lack of police officers.

How many of these law breakers are repeat offenders and career criminals? Detroit has a revolving door justice system that is overwhelming police resources that needs to be addressed.

**DetroitPlanner** · February-07-13, 11:56 AM

Its getting to the point where public execution for petty theft will seem reasonable.

**Motor City Sam** · February-07-13, 12:07 PM

Originally Posted by davewindsor

Pointless because the problem isn't the police. You need more prisons and a tougher justice system [[like the three strikes you're out law in California).

In 2010, Detroit had over 32.1 cops per 10K. Los Angeles had 25.7 per 10K. FBI crime reporting system http://www.governing.com/gov-data/sa...or-cities.html

Yet, Los Angeles has a much lower crime rate.

How is it that Detroit lost almost 200K people in the last couple years and has the same police resources, yet the crime/homicide rates keep going up?

What does this tell you? The problem is not lack of police officers.

How many of these law breakers are repeat offenders and career criminals? Detroit has a revolving door justice system that is overwhelming police resources that needs to be addressed.

Having lived in Los Angeles and worked with the LA County Sheriff's Department, what I noticed is that a lot of police department jobs done by police officers in Detroit are done by civilians in LA. I mean the administrative and support jobs that don't require a sworn police officer.

One question about your post: Detroit has lost 200K in the past couple of years? We're down to 500K now? Or did you mean we lost 200K between the 2000 and 2010 Census?

If it's the latter, we certainly don't have the same number of police officers and resources we had back then. We've closed precincts, laid off officers, and left many officer slots vacant.

I agree with your point that Detroit has a revolving door justice system. We also have a horribly mismanaged department that is making poor use of the [[too few) police officers we have.

**davewindsor** · February-07-13, 01:05 PM

Originally Posted by Motor City Sam

Having lived in Los Angeles and worked with the LA County Sheriff's Department, what I noticed is that a lot of police department jobs done by police officers in Detroit are done by civilians in LA. I mean the administrative and support jobs that don't require a sworn police officer.

One question about your post: Detroit has lost 200K in the past couple of years? We're down to 500K now? Or did you mean we lost 200K between the 2000 and 2010 Census?

If it's the latter, we certainly don't have the same number of police officers and resources we had back then. We've closed precincts, laid off officers, and left many officer slots vacant.

I agree with your point that Detroit has a revolving door justice system. We also have a horribly mismanaged department that is making poor use of the [[too few) police officers we have.

As I cited in the previous post, the FBI statistics say in 2010 the population was around 899K. I can't find anything from the FBI more recent. More recent news articles like this one from CNN money by Les Christie Jan 23/13 say it's now around 700K http://money.cnn.com/gallery/real_es...ies/index.html

Maybe the FBI uses a different counting method to arrive at that figure than the census that factors in homeless people or people that didn't register for the census. But, I think it's self evident that the population declined from 2010 to date.

As a side point, how do you lay off a Detroit Police Officer? Are you referring to attrition from retirees? The Police Union has long standing contracts with the city that would never allow layoffs unless an EFM took over the city and overwrote those agreements. All they've managed to do was reduce police salaries and close older buildings for a new one. When I'm talking about police resources, I'm referring to the amount of sworn officers. What evidence do you have that there was a significant drop in sworn officers from 2010 to 2013?

**Detroitnerd** · February-07-13, 01:06 PM

Originally Posted by Hermod

Detroit maybe just needs to redeploy its force out of the headquarters building and into the streets.

One Detroit cop I know tells me: "Those people who sit at desks and don't patrol? There's a damn good reason they aren't allowed to patrol."

**cla1945** · February-07-13, 01:27 PM

One Detroit cop that I know also tells me that without proper equipment, the cops hands are tied most of the time. Cars that don't run, computers that don't work, radios that are unoperable, sirens that can't be used, headlights out on cars, seats covered with garbage bags because the upholstery is gone, steering wheels down to bare metal. Being asked for more cuts in salary, paying out more money in health care premiums also puts a heavy burden on the cops that are working and trying to keep their homes from foreclosure, keep food on the table for their kids, and maybe go to a show once in awhile with the family. It's stressful enough to be at work on 12 hour shifts let alone all the other crap that they have to put up with. The CofD needs to update everything within the DPD before the cops can do the job they are trained for.

**Motor City Sam** · February-07-13, 01:48 PM

Originally Posted by davewindsor

As I cited in the previous post, the FBI statistics say in 2010 the population was around 899K. I can't find anything from the FBI more recent. More recent news articles like this one from CNN money by Les Christie Jan 23/13 say it's now around 700K http://money.cnn.com/gallery/real_es...ies/index.html

Maybe the FBI uses a different counting method to arrive at that figure than the census that factors in homeless people or people that didn't register for the census. But, I think it's self evident that the population declined from 2010 to date.

As a side point, how do you lay off a Detroit Police Officer? Are you referring to attrition from retirees? The Police Union has long standing contracts with the city that would never allow layoffs unless an EFM took over the city and overwrote those agreements. All they've managed to do was reduce police salaries and close older buildings for a new one. When I'm talking about police resources, I'm referring to the amount of sworn officers. What evidence do you have that there was a significant drop in sworn officers from 2010 to 2013?

I didn't say we had a significant drop in sworn officers from 2010 to 2013. I asked if your comment about dropping 200K in population referred to "the last couple of years" as you stated, or if you meant that drop was from the 2000 census [[which was around 900K) to the 2010 census. I then commented that if you referred to the drop from census to census we don't have the same police resources today that we had in 2000.

The census in 2010 showed Detroit had a population of around 713,000. Obviously, that FBI report was using an estimate before the census came out, probably based on the 2000 census and taking into account some population loss. There is no way Detroit had 899,000 people in 2010.

I don't doubt the population has declined since 2010. You made the comment that it dropped by 200K in the past couple of years and I was just trying to get clarification on what were saying.

**Motor City Sam** · February-07-13, 01:51 PM

Originally Posted by Detroitnerd

One Detroit cop I know tells me: "Those people who sit at desks and don't patrol? There's a damn good reason they aren't allowed to patrol."

I have heard that same thing often.

It seems to me that every police officer on the force should be able to perform the most basic of police duties, patrol. If there are physical, mental, or other issues that prohibit an officer from doing that, he/she probably shouldn't be on the force.

**Honky Tonk** · February-07-13, 02:34 PM

Originally Posted by Motor City Sam

I have heard that same thing often.

It seems to me that every police officer on the force should be able to perform the most basic of police duties, patrol. If there are physical, mental, or other issues that prohibit an officer from doing that, he/she probably shouldn't be on the force.

Though I agree with you, people aren't exactly knocking the doors down to be a Detroit cop.