Census Bureau Pop Estimate for Detroit

[renf]

This morning the Census Bureau released their estimate of the population of the city of Detroit for July 1, 2008. The figure is 912,062. The rate of population decline in the city appears to be slowing. The estimate for July 1, 2008 is 4.1 % smaller than the Census 2000 count. Nevertheless, 23 of the nation's 25 largest cities grew more rapidly or declined less rapidly in population than Detroit. Philadelphia is the only large city that lost population at a higher rate in this decade than Detroit. Date are available at the Census Bureau website: www.census.gov

[hudkina]

I don't think Philadelphia has challanged the Census numbers yet.

[Ocean2026]

Renf-- Do you really believe that Detroit's population decline is slowing? What has happened since July 1, 2008? Ever heard of the Big 3 Automakers? Know what's happened in the last year or so? Know any other businesses in Detroit that have closed down?

There are some estimates that Detroit is now below 850,000

[izzyindetroit]

Renf-- Do you really believe that Detroit's population decline is slowing? What has happened since July 1, 2008? Ever heard of the Big 3 Automakers? Know what's happened in the last year or so? Know any other businesses in Detroit that have closed down?

There are some estimates that Detroit is now below 850,000

Most of the companies that closed or aren't doing so hot, are in the suburbs. While some Detroiters may work at those businesses, they mostly had people from the suburbs working at them.

[Mackinaw]

Ocean2026, do you know what has happened to the housing market in Detroit lately?

So many homes are practically valueless. People are trapped...can't go anywhere, because their investment is worthless and they have no income. I've also been learning that people in this area are not too inclined to leave. Perhaps it's because they can't stand being away from this place. Perhaps its because they fear the unknown and are stubborn. Yes, a good deal will leave, and they'll be vocal about why they're cutting ties, but most people like the area and will stick it out. They will either a) live off the generous safety nets, be it government or family b) become entrepreneurs and start their own business [[I'd like to see a lot more of this, or c) go back to school. Some might even get new, though perhaps lower paying, jobs. There is hiring activity if you look. Just because industry shrinks doesn't mean population does. Our metro area grew from the 60s through the 90s even though its major industries did not. The city's population fell, but that was people leaving for the suburbs-- one of the most massive relocations in world history. Now, it's harder for the lower-middle classes to do that because their Detroit homes have so little value. The upper class people in Detroit [[Palmer Park, Indian Village, and the new downtown residents) are there by choice, and this population is arguably growing.

The region...will probably shrink marginally because the regional [[not city proper) hemorrhage has been so bad, and though people are often married to Michigan, many won't have qualms about leaving. The city...doesn't really have much more to lose. I trust the census bureau and those with intimate knowledge of Detroit. Sorry, Ocean.

[dexterferry]

I heard on NPR all about how new orleans has the fastest growth rate of any city right now and how there is a ton of investment and rebuilding and no one there is feeling this recession.

then I came home and google news'd "new orleans" and after the first story "New Orleans population growing" was the story, "Will New Orleans even exist in 2100?" [[ because of rising water levels).

So glad all that Katrina money and federal stimulus funding is going into a city that doesn't even make sense.

[WolverinesA2]

This morning the Census Bureau released their estimate of the population of the city of Detroit for July 1, 2008. The figure is 912,062. The rate of population decline in the city appears to be slowing. The estimate for July 1, 2008 is 4.1 % smaller than the Census 2000 count. Nevertheless, 23 of the nation's 25 largest cities grew more rapidly or declined less rapidly in population than Detroit. Philadelphia is the only large city that lost population at a higher rate in this decade than Detroit. Date are available at the Census Bureau website: www.census.gov

I don't trust that figure, it is almost certainly inflated.

http://www.detnews.com/article/20090...907010343/1409

Despite Detroit's successful 2007 challenge of its population count last year, after which the U.S. Census Bureau "added" more than 47,000 to the city's estimate, the government estimated the city lost another 4,900 people from 2007 to 2008, leaving it with 912,062. It remains the 11th largest city in the country.

That challenge, however, likely triggered the "estimated" population losses throughout Wayne County, with Dearborn, Livonia, Canton Township and Westland all joining Detroit among the 10 areas nationwide with the biggest losses. Nearby Cleveland [[No. 2) and Toledo [[No. 6) also made the list.

Kurt Metzger, a demographer and director of the nonprofit Detroit Area Community Information System, said losses seen in Dearborn and elsewhere may be on paper only; the Census Bureau has to adjust population figures within a county if a city successfully challenges its estimate. An increase for the challenging city -- in this case Detroit -- cannot trigger an increase for the county.

"That's nuts," Metzger said, specifically pointing to Canton Township and Dearborn, where others believe population is growing. "I don't think that's true."

[Mackinaw]

Metzger must be nuts if he thinks Canton is still growing. He's stuck in 2003 or something. Where's the building activity? That's what drives it, and it's stopped.

But on the whole those estimates do seem really, really sloppy and we should patiently wait for the '10 census.