Heavy Storms Moving In From the West

**Meddle** · March-15-12, 04:37 PM

Tornado Warnings out for the Ann Arbor and Brighton areas.

Entire system moving towards Wayne County

**Scottathew** · March-15-12, 04:58 PM

Warning for Monroe and Ohio cities north of Toledo.

It looks like Detroit will take a hit from this storm.

Track power outages here: http://www.dteenergy.com/map/outage.html

**Meddle** · March-15-12, 05:20 PM

At 603 pm edt...national weather service doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. This dangerous storm was located 6 miles south of dexter...moving southeast at 20 mph. Recent radar trends show rotation strengthening with this storm. A tornado could develop at any time.

In addition to the tornado...hail over 2 inches in diameter has been
reported with this storm.

This dangerous storm will be near...
Ann arbor around 615 pm edt.
Saline around 620 pm edt.
Pittsfield township around 625 pm edt.
Milan around 630 pm edt.

**Scottathew** · March-15-12, 05:29 PM

One thing I don't understand, if they know this storm is producing tornadoes, shouldn't they issue a tornado watch?

**Scottathew** · March-15-12, 05:31 PM

A new tornado warning has been issued for Washtenaw, based off of an actual sighting near Saline.

**Scottathew** · March-15-12, 05:53 PM

WJBK is showing helicopter footage of homes that are outright destroyed in Dexter.

**Meddle** · March-15-12, 06:38 PM

Weird to watch it on radar and see it hang a right at 275 and head south.

**MikeM** · March-15-12, 10:26 PM

Originally Posted by 48091

One thing I don't understand, if they know this storm is producing tornadoes, shouldn't they issue a tornado watch?

They need to see a probability of strong tornadoes or multiple tornadoes before they issue a tornado watch. Same with thunderstorm watches; they won't issue a watch when a few thunderstorms appear. Also, a thunderstorm watch implies the possibility of an occasional tornado. From the severe thunderstorm watch:

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

From the discussion about an hour before the tornado appeared:

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 76...

VALID 152144Z - 152245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 76 CONTINUES.

THREAT OF PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO PERSISTS ACROSS THE WW AREA.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS ERN MI...PRIMARILY ALONG:

1. A SWD SAGGING COLD FRONT NOTED FROM MANISTEE EWD TO BAD AXE
2. A SURFACE CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM SOUTH BEND NEWD TO BAD AXE
3. A SURFACE CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM NEAR TOLEDO NWD TO BAD AXE

ADDITIONALLY...A DISTINCT SUPERCELL HAS FORMED IN WASHTENAW COUNTY NEAR A SURFACE LOW NOTED NEAR LANSING...WHERE SEVERAL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CONFLUENCE ZONES INTERSECT. HERE...ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES REMAIN SOMEWHAT ON THE LOWER THRESHOLDS FOR SUPERCELL FORMATION...LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS TO LOW-LEVEL SRH VALUES IN ADDITION TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS HAVE COMPENSATED SUFFICIENTLY AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ADDITIONALLY...AN AXIS OF 60S F DEW POINTS REMAINS OVER THIS AREA...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT NOTED ON THE 18Z DETROIT SOUNDING.

**MikeM** · March-15-12, 10:30 PM

Originally Posted by Meddle

Weird to watch it on radar and see it hang a right at 275 and head south.

Typical behavior of right-moving supercells.

**Cincinnati_Kid** · March-15-12, 10:46 PM

It was confirmed 3 tornado's touched down in Ada, Dexter and Luna Pier.

**MikeM** · March-15-12, 10:52 PM

Originally Posted by Cincinnati_Kid

It was confirmed 3 tornado's touched down in Ada, Dexter and Luna Pier.

Where did you get that information?

**313WX** · March-15-12, 10:54 PM

Originally Posted by MikeM

Where did you get that information?

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

None officially touched down in Luna Pier, but one touched down in Columbiaville [[Lapeer County).

**MikeM** · March-15-12, 10:59 PM

Okay, those are just reports, not confirmations. I thought maybe the NWS investigators had actually released a statement confirming the tornado damage.

**313WX** · March-15-12, 11:18 PM

Originally Posted by MikeM

Okay, those are just reports, not confirmations. I thought maybe the NWS investigators had actually released a statement confirming the tornado damage.

Based on the video I saw and the damage reports [[not to mention the analysis of it by Dr. Greg Forbes), I'll give it a 99.8% chance that the tornado touchdown in Dexter will be officially confirmed by the NWS.

As for the rest, yes, you may certainly be right.

**Scottathew** · March-16-12, 07:18 AM

Originally Posted by MikeM

They need to see a probability of strong tornadoes or multiple tornadoes before they issue a tornado watch. Same with thunderstorm watches; they won't issue a watch when a few thunderstorms appear. Also, a thunderstorm watch implies the possibility of an occasional tornado.

That still doesn't make sense to me. As soon as they know that a cell has, or is capable of producing tornadoes, a tornado watch should be issued for the area. At one point there were four counties lit up with tornado warnings without even having a watch.

It would make sense to me to warn people that not only are there strong storms, but strong storms that are producing tornadoes moving through the area.

**313WX** · March-16-12, 08:03 AM

Originally Posted by 48091

That still doesn't make sense to me. As soon as they know that a cell has, or is capable of producing tornadoes, a tornado watch should be issued for the area. At one point there were four counties lit up with tornado warnings without even having a watch.

It would make sense to me to warn people that not only are there strong storms, but strong storms that are producing tornadoes moving through the area.

You obviously have no clue as to how weather works, as it's far more complicated than you make it.

And funny thing is you would also be main one whining if they did issue a Tornado Watch and no Tornadoes touched down.

**Scottathew** · March-16-12, 08:24 AM

Originally Posted by 313WX

You obviously have no clue as to how weather works, as it's far more complicated than you make it.

And funny thing is you would also be main one whining if they did issue a Tornado Watch and no Tornadoes touched down.

LOL, I'm not sure if you're being sarcastic, or if you're having a bad day!

**Downriviera** · March-16-12, 08:41 AM

I don't know much about weather forecasting, but I do know those tornadoes sure do like trailer parks.

**MikeM** · March-16-12, 08:49 AM

Originally Posted by 48091

That still doesn't make sense to me. As soon as they know that a cell has, or is capable of producing tornadoes, a tornado watch should be issued for the area. At one point there were four counties lit up with tornado warnings without even having a watch.

It would make sense to me to warn people that not only are there strong storms, but strong storms that are producing tornadoes moving through the area.

Well, I'll say again, there was a severe thunderstorm watch in effect, and severe thunderstorms include the possibility of tornadoes, by definition. A few tornadoes, and minor ones at that, in a watch area of 15,000 sq miles is not enough to issue a tornado watch.

**Scottathew** · March-16-12, 09:02 AM

Originally Posted by MikeM

Well, I'll say again, there was a severe thunderstorm watch in effect, and severe thunderstorms include the possibility of tornadoes, by definition. A few tornadoes, and minor ones at that, in a watch area of 15,000 sq miles is not enough to issue a tornado watch.

Well, then I guess we'll have to disagree on that one. I think last night's system most certainly should have put us under a tornado watch, especially since before the storm was even through the area people were posting pictures of funnel clouds barreling through populated areas.

Meteorology and common sense don't always overlap I guess...

**MikeM** · March-16-12, 09:23 AM

If a tornado watch were issued for every tornado producing thunderstorm, you would have so many watches that no one would pay attention to them. The thunderstorm watch was sufficient for the level of storms present. Perhaps the public still doesn't understand what a severe thunderstorm is. Meanwhile, after the watch was issued -which specifically mentioned the possibility of a tornado - this thunderstorm warning was issued:

http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KDTX/1203152057.wuus53.html

Followed by this tornado warning:

http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KDTX/1203152128.wfus53.html

**Cincinnati_Kid** · March-16-12, 09:43 AM

Originally Posted by MikeM

Well, I'll say again, there was a severe thunderstorm watch in effect, and severe thunderstorms include the possibility of tornadoes, by definition. A few tornadoes, and minor ones at that, in a watch area of 15,000 sq miles is not enough to issue a tornado watch.

There is no such thing as a MINOR tornado. They ALL produce some level of destruction. It was confirmed, you must not watch the news. People in Dexter even took pictures of it with their cell phones. Looked like a tornado to me.

**Scottathew** · March-16-12, 12:50 PM

OK folks, let's go back to arguing over welfare, racism, and downtown development. We're starting to look like nerds now! JKJK

**Pam** · March-16-12, 05:10 PM

It would suck to lose your house and then today find Chuck Gaidica and the dude from the Weather Channel strolling through your yard. My condolences to the people affected.

**Meddle** · March-16-12, 05:15 PM

Originally Posted by Cincinnati_Kid

There is no such thing as a MINOR tornado. They ALL produce some level of destruction.

Yes there is and no they don't.

Tornadoes are rated on a scale of 0 to 5. Dozens, if not hundreds of EF0s and EF1s occur every year that do no damage.