So who goes? Conyers or Clarke

The shockwave that hit Detroit brought many questions, but in regards to redistricting the question that Detroiters will ask is what will the GOP do? Everyone knows Michigan is going to lose a seat in the House but people assumed that Detroit's two seats were safe. With Detroit's number at 713,000, there is no longer a need to have two seats. So if the GOP goes for one of Detroit's seats, who should go? I vote for Conyers. It is time for him to move to the side and let the young blood flow.

I concur. One of Detroit's problems is hanging on to the same politician for decades. Bye bye Conyers, your time has long passed.

R E T I R E !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yep, too many "bimbo eruptions" [[so to speak, son's Escalade, staff use for personal things, etc.).

At first, I had the same thought, regarding all of Detroit being in one district. And of course, that makes sense geographically, too. The GOP probably cannot do that, though, because of the Voting Rights Act, which will probably require that the state create two majority-minority districts, if possible [[and I think it probably is possible given the increased black populations in the surrounding areas outside the city). So there could still be two districts, with each having part of the city.

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Originally Posted by cman710

At first, I had the same thought, regarding all of Detroit being in one district. And of course, that makes sense geographically, too. The GOP probably cannot do that, though, because of the Voting Rights Act, which will probably require that the state create two majority-minority districts, if possible [[and I think it probably is possible given the increased black populations in the surrounding areas outside the city). So there could still be two districts, with each having part of the city.

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I am aware of that but neither Conyers nor Clarke represents Detroit proper. Both the 13th and the 14th represents suburban cities. The argument that the Republicans can use is that the city will still be two districts but those areas can be merged with the 15th, [[Dingell) the 11th, [[McCotter) the 12th [[Levin) and the 10th. [[Miller)

Didn't Conyers challenge CAY to a boxing match one time, years ago, when he challenged CAY for mayor? We could have a match between Conyers and Clarke. Throw in Conyers wife as a tag team and/or ring girl, for good measure, and it would be a hell of a fund raiser for any number of worthy charities.

:eek:Eeeewwww....MonCon as ring girl...I think I just threw up in my mouth a little bit...:eek:

whatever happens, I hope that the officials in these districts must be held to the strictest of accountability and ethical practices..

I really doubt that they'd dump out Conyers district. Given his significant seniority, I would bet that the Democrats will fight hard to save his district [[unless he signals that he's ready to retire, which I don't think he has so far) and would much rather give up something else. With his seniority he has too much potential to get some $ for Michigan when the Democrats next retake the House, and he would head some key committees again.

As for Clarke, even though he's a first-termer I'd bet that his district is retained too, if for nothing else than the reason cman cites above. Michigan's black population is large enough that the Voting Rights Act will probably require the creation of 2 "majority-minority" districts that will be almost certain to elect an African-American representative. Republicans don't mind creating these districts either, as it allows them to isolate Democratic super-majorities in single districts, and create potential swing districts or GOP-leaning districts elsewhere.

Given black population shifts, I would expect that both districts will extend further out into the northern suburbs, which could really pinch Sander Levin's district. Perhaps they will find a way to create a long narrow district like North Carolina's controversial 12th, to reach out and link up with predominantly black cities like Pontiac and Flint.

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Originally Posted by EastsideAl

I really doubt that they'd dump out Conyers district. Given his significant seniority, I would bet that the Democrats will fight hard to save his district [[unless he signals that he's ready to retire, which I don't think he has so far) and would much rather give up something else. With his seniority he has too much potential to get some $ for Michigan when the Democrats next retake the House, and he would head some key committees again.

As for Clarke, even though he's a first-termer I'd bet that his district is retained too, if for nothing else than the reason cman cites above. Michigan's black population is large enough that the Voting Rights Act will probably require the creation of 2 "majority-minority" districts that will be almost certain to elect an African-American representative. Republicans don't mind creating these districts either, as it allows them to isolate Democratic super-majorities in single districts, and create potential swing districts or GOP-leaning districts elsewhere.

Given black population shifts, I would expect that both districts will extend further out into the northern suburbs, which could really pinch Sander Levin's district. Perhaps they will find a way to create a long narrow district like North Carolina's controversial 12th, to reach out and link up with predominantly black cities like Pontiac and Flint.

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In order to maintain two Detroit districts, the GOP-controlled House and Senate will have to eliminate the 12th and that will create the same problem as removing Conyers. Levin have seniority too and there will be talk that Levin should not lose his seat but someone is losing their seat.

It won't be that cut and dry. Yes a district goes. Yes that district will mostly impact SE Michigan and more specifically Detroit. But I predict that Detroit will still have two part-districts as it currently has. My best guess is that Dingel may have to move from Dearborn S or W.

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Originally Posted by EastsideAl

I really doubt that they'd dump out Conyers district. Given his significant seniority, I would bet that the Democrats will fight hard to save his district [[unless he signals that he's ready to retire, which I don't think he has so far) and would much rather give up something else. With his seniority he has too much potential to get some $ for Michigan when the Democrats next retake the House, and he would head some key committees again.

As for Clarke, even though he's a first-termer I'd bet that his district is retained too, if for nothing else than the reason cman cites above. Michigan's black population is large enough that the Voting Rights Act will probably require the creation of 2 "majority-minority" districts that will be almost certain to elect an African-American representative. Republicans don't mind creating these districts either, as it allows them to isolate Democratic super-majorities in single districts, and create potential swing districts or GOP-leaning districts elsewhere.

Given black population shifts, I would expect that both districts will extend further out into the northern suburbs, which could really pinch Sander Levin's district. Perhaps they will find a way to create a long narrow district like North Carolina's controversial 12th, to reach out and link up with predominantly black cities like Pontiac and Flint.

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We're trillions in debt.Conyers and Clarke won't see much money coming into their new districts.The days of bringing home the bacon are coming to end and fast.Replacing Levin or Conyers and their senority will be like a breath of fresh air,Dem.or Rep.

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Originally Posted by Hypestyles

whatever happens, I hope that the officials in these districts must be held to the strictest of accountability and ethical practices..

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Like any politicians are held to the strictest of accountability and ethical practices. Duh. The only reason we know about these particular politician's lack of ethics and accountability is because they decided to have their own 'Howdy Doody' shows. Meaning, anytime cameras were within a mile of them, they yelled, called names, crashed cars and did anything else to get attention. Not to mention thinking they're above the law. The last one is a prerequisite for ALL politicians.

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Originally Posted by 1KielsonDrive

Like any politicians are held to the strictest of accountability and ethical practices. Duh. The only reason we know about these particular politician's lack of ethics and accountability is because they decided to have their own 'Howdy Doody' shows. Meaning, anytime cameras were within a mile of them, they yelled, called names, crashed cars and did anything else to get attention. Not to mention thinking they're above the law. The last one is a prerequisite for ALL politicians.

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I take exception to that regarding Hansen Clarke. I know him professionally. I know he his very ethical. You won't see any controversy from him. Hopefully his district and he will be retained.

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Originally Posted by jackie5275

I take exception to that regarding Hansen Clarke. I know him professionally. I know he his very ethical. You won't see any controversy from him. Hopefully his district and he will be retained.

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This is certain. Hansen Clarke is the newcomer and the old school Democrats are going to lobby to keep a district. The entire state is going to redrawn so that 14 representatives will represent the state in Washington. Since the Republicans control the state, the odds that a Republican loses his or her district is about 0.01% so a newcomer like Clarke will have to face either Dingell, Conyers or Levin

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Originally Posted by R8RBOB

This is certain. Hansen Clarke is the newcomer and the old school Democrats are going to lobby to keep a district. The entire state is going to redrawn so that 14 representatives will represent the state in Washington. Since the Republicans control the state, the odds that a Republican loses his or her district is about 0.01% so a newcomer like Clarke will have to face either Dingell, Conyers or Levin

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You're probably correct. However, there is a slight possibility that they will redraw the area that Hansen Clarke is in where a republican may be able to give him a run for his money in the general election.

Because of how Detroit surrounds Highland Park and Hamtramck, because of the VRA, and because of how Michigan either discourages or outright bans [[can't seem to remember) non-contiguous districts, there is no way that Detroit can be completely combined into one congressional district.

I think the target number for Michigan congressional districts is just slightly above 700,000. When you add Detroit, HP, and Hamtramck, you get a population of nearly 750,000. Clarke and Conyers districts will no doubt have to be stretched much deeper into the suburbs [[we all knew that before the official numbers came out), but one of them won't disappear. It still seems that the only real scenario will be to merge Levin and Peters.

WDIV is reporting that Detroit will keep its two congressional seats no matter what. The loser in all of this is....drumroll.......Rocky Raczkowski. Well actually Gary Peters, but it was reported that Raczkowski might had run again in 2012 for the 9th.

So it looks like the 12th will be split in half for Conyers and Clarke and Levin would get the 9th or whatever it is called after the redraw. As for Peters, he would be the rep coming home. Oh and if Rocky runs again, he may have to beat a Levin and we know no one has yet beat the Levin brothers in any congressional or senate race.

Levins needs to retire too. Too many old fogies trying desperately to keep Michigan down.

I agree that much of Michigan's congressional delegation in Southeast Michigan is far beyond its expiration date, but I don't think that any of them are "trying desperately to keep Michigan down." That sounds like the conclusion of a partisan/ideological hack if I'm going to be kind.

Either way, despite population loss being bad for Detroit and its inner ring in terms of funding, this actually makes McCotter's district a bit less safe for him in the long run, and probably also makes Dingell's district more competitive, though still very much a "likely Dem" one. Miller gets moved further up to the north, I think, which makes her already safe district even safer. I don't know Mike Rogers district will fair. Truth is, the GOP has already redistricted about as far as they could in their favor in the last go around, and with a stagnant state, they're going to have to start sacrificing the safety of some of their own.

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Originally Posted by EastsideAl

I really doubt that they'd dump out Conyers district. Given his significant seniority, I would bet that the Democrats will fight hard to save his district [[unless he signals that he's ready to retire, which I don't think he has so far) and would much rather give up something else. With his seniority he has too much potential to get some $ for Michigan when the Democrats next retake the House, and he would head some key committees again.

As for Clarke, even though he's a first-termer I'd bet that his district is retained too, if for nothing else than the reason cman cites above. Michigan's black population is large enough that the Voting Rights Act will probably require the creation of 2 "majority-minority" districts that will be almost certain to elect an African-American representative. Republicans don't mind creating these districts either, as it allows them to isolate Democratic super-majorities in single districts, and create potential swing districts or GOP-leaning districts elsewhere.

Given black population shifts, I would expect that both districts will extend further out into the northern suburbs, which could really pinch Sander Levin's district. Perhaps they will find a way to create a long narrow district like North Carolina's controversial 12th, to reach out and link up with predominantly black cities like Pontiac and Flint.

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Yeah, I've often joked in the past that the Republicans could add Southfield and Oak Park to one of the Detroit districts, then send the district shooting up the median of Telegraph to pick up Pontiac, then up I-75 to drag in Flint, if necessary.

Given that the objective of the Republicans is to create a few really Democratic districts, there will be two Detroit-based, minority-majority districts after the dust has settled. My guess is the districts will be extended out to include Southfield and Oak Park. Then Levin's district will be expanded to include Pontiac, West Bloomfield, and the Farmingtons [[West Bloomfield and the Farmingtons are pretty Democratic these days). This would put Peters' home in Bloomfield Township into Levin's district, which would leave him with the choice of challenging Levin in the primary or moving into McCotter's district [[or Rogers' or Miller's), which would be a real challenge for him to win.

So at the end of the day my guess is Peters comes home, the other five Dems get really safe districts, and the Reps see if they can create nine districts that will elect Reps for an entire decade. But that's just my guess...