Detroit News poll: Crime drives Detroiters out; 40% expect to leave in 5 years

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Originally Posted by iheartthed

A single person can leave a city, but 300,000 people cannot displace themselves simultaneously with relative ease from most cities. If 300,000 people leave Detroit to move elsewhere in Metro Detroit then that means there is existing unused infrastructure for 300,000 people that already exists in Metro Detroit outside of the city of Detroit... Which raises the question of why so much excess infrastructure exists for a population that isn't growing to absorb it?

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I see what you're getting at. Of course I agree with you - why did we build - and keep building - further and further out to nowhere, when the population hasn't grown in 30 years? Beats the hell out of me, other than I've realized about 3/4 of the population and 4/4 of the leadership here is stuck on stupid. Oatmeal north of the eyebrows. No brains. Fumes from Zug Island? Too much Ted Nugent? I dunno.

However keep in mind that Michigan was the only state to lose population in the past decade. And while Brooksie may be slurring about how Oakland County made a modest gain in population, it was essentially from people crossing 8 Mile in a northerly direction. I know entire families of kids of wealthy Oakland County residents who jumped ship entirely and left the state with their outstanding educations, leaving their aging parents to shuffle around their big houses alone.

The drain isn't just going to affect Detroit. We're seeing Detroiters move to the suburbs, suburban young people leave the state, and suburban baby boomers gradually age and die. Not a healthy outlook for the region.

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Originally Posted by poobert

The drain isn't just going to affect Detroit. We're seeing Detroiters move to the suburbs, suburban young people leave the state, and suburban baby boomers gradually age and die. Not a healthy outlook for the region.

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Those predictions have been in for years. It's not just Detroit. Out of U.S. metro regions, metro Detroit will drop out of the top 10 by 2025. Detroit is the only metro expected to slip from the top 10 during the next two decades. It’s projected to fall from 10th place in 2005 to 14th place in 2025, losing 59,500 residents during that span.

But it isn't facts driving all this so much as obsolete beliefs. On the part of the "leaders" it's a mythological belief in the "growth machine" and blinders about what's going on nationwide and even metrowide. For a lot of the old-line residents, it's the stubborn and persistent mythology of the Moses of Oakland County leading them out of the city into the promised land.

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Originally Posted by Detroitnerd

I'm not saying violence isn't a factor. I'm saying that, judging from the article that touched off the post, and judging by statistics, property crime is the main thing mentioned and the major factor. When I see posts about "people living in terror," I feel I have to point out that we're conflating mugging and burglary with battery and murder. When I read about people "looking over their shoulders," I feel the need to point out that, statistically speaking, most victims of homicide know their attacker.

We have a long history of crime in Detroit, and I'm not downplaying it. But we also have a long history of mythologizing crime in Detroit, and that doesn't help us get to the root of what's going on, or why people want to move.

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While I see what you're getting at, DN, the issue is simpler than that. People that are privy or witness to the palette of crimes that innocent folks have been subjected to in this city are afraid of the possibility of a similar crime happening to them.

I have several family members that are afraid of buying gas or shopping in the city. I'm not talking about recent events making them this way, they have been afraid of doing so for years.

While I understand their fears, I always tell them that if it's that bad that you are afraid of daily mundane tasks, you really should move. I'll be damned if I'm going to go out of my way to get some gas.

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Originally Posted by Islandman

While I see what you're getting at, DN, the issue is simpler than that. People that are privy or witness to the palette of crimes that innocent folks have been subjected to in this city are afraid of the possibility of a similar crime happening to them.

I have several family members that are afraid of buying gas or shopping in the city. I'm not talking about recent events making them this way, they have been afraid of doing so for years.

While I understand their fears, I always tell them that if it's that bad that you are afraid of daily mundane tasks, you really should move. I'll be damned if I'm going to go out of my way to get some gas.

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That's true. One the one hand, if we're talking about actual crimes committed and statistics, sort of like law enforcement agencies do, that's one thing.

But perceptions of crime, while rooted in psychology and mythology, do have actual effects when it comes to where people invest and live. Undeniably.

Too bad the poll couldn't break out some neighborhoods that are thriving: Downtown, Midtown, Corktown, Woodbridge, etc. I feel certain the percentage of people wanting to leave would be much, much lower.

DN, you are partially right. What's driving people out of the city is not violent crime, and really not even property crimes either. One would have to be a complete fool to think they cannot be a victim of crime in the suburbs. The presence of crime in the suburbs is the reason most every suburb has a police force. However, in Detroit the reaction to crime by the city leaders is "oh well, tough, boo hoo." The response in the suburbs is radically different. Police actually show up and make themselves visible. It is a huge deterrent, and they actually go after criminals pretty aggressively. It means to most people that it is highly unlikely they'll be a victim of crime in the suburbs and because the suburbs will respond appropriately, that even if they are, it will still be a rare occasion.

So to sum up all that rambling I did in the previous paragraph, basically it is Detroit's response to crime that is driving people out of the city. The leadership in Detroit does not take crime serious at all and does almost nothing to combat it.

Detroit could combat its image for being crime riddled by combating crime. Since Detroit does any and everything but that its image continues to decline as the city loses residents by tens of thousands yearly.

it's [[beyond) sad. people's needs aren't being met or listened to. I've been hearing "it's going to take 20 years [[for detroit to come back)" for, well, the past 20 years.. and here we are.. :[[

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Originally Posted by daveyarm

Too bad the poll couldn't break out some neighborhoods that are thriving: Downtown, Midtown, Corktown, Woodbridge, etc. I feel certain the percentage of people wanting to leave would be much, much lower.

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Why is it misleading? It's counting Detroit as a whole, not a few cherry-picked blocks with a handful of hipsters.

While true a number of people plan on/would like to leave the city, the 40% number is missing some very important context.

What is typical for Michigan, the suburbs, the US in general. Do cities see a typical outflow [[if that is the correct term) of 2%, 20%, 50%? Without that this type of context a raw number doesn't paint a completely clear picture.

According to a 1996 study [[I don't have much time to search around for current stats) the average home turns over every 11.9 years so inflow/outflow between communities is not as low as some would expect.

Do I think crime is the reason that people are leaving? Yes. Do I think that more people want to leave Detroit than other cities? Yes. Do I think that a significant number of people want to leave the city they live in, regardless of where? Yes. That last piece is ignored.

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Originally Posted by Detroitnerd

Those predictions have been in for years. It's not just Detroit. Out of U.S. metro regions, metro Detroit will drop out of the top 10 by 2025. Detroit is the only metro expected to slip from the top 10 during the next two decades. It’s projected to fall from 10th place in 2005 to 14th place in 2025, losing 59,500 residents during that span.

But it isn't facts driving all this so much as obsolete beliefs. On the part of the "leaders" it's a mythological belief in the "growth machine" and blinders about what's going on nationwide and even metrowide. For a lot of the old-line residents, it's the stubborn and persistent mythology of the Moses of Oakland County leading them out of the city into the promised land.

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Metro Detroit already has dropped out of the top 10 -- currently the #13 MSA -- but yes, it was the only top 10 to do so. Metro Detroit was also the only top 5 Metro during the 20th century to have dropped out of that group. The only other 20th century top 5 to drop out was Philadelphia, but it only dropped to number 6 after the 2010 census. So it's by no means only the city of Detroit that isn't keeping pace...

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Originally Posted by iheartthed

Metro Detroit already has dropped out of the top 10 -- currently the #13 MSA -- but yes, it was the only top 10 to do so. Metro Detroit was also the only top 5 Metro during the 20th century to have dropped out of that group. The only other 20th century top 5 to drop out was Philadelphia, but it only dropped to number 6 after the 2010 census. So it's by no means only the city of Detroit that isn't keeping pace...

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Thanks for the correction, iheart. That research was from 2009. Amazing how fast a region can fall when the people leading it are politically fragmented and refuse to work together...

I'll be leaving next year - after 33 years in this house - just going to leave the key in the lock and walk far far away!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Originally Posted by Bham1982

Why is it misleading? It's counting Detroit as a whole, not a few cherry-picked blocks with a handful of hipsters.

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Would any sensible person accept the results of a Chicago-based poll if it lumped together the South Side and, say, Lake View? I'd question it, at least.

CP: basically it is Detroit's response to crime that is driving people out of the city.

I agree with you on this, and it is not a new problem. Whatever the root causes may be, it has been this way since the 70s at least, almost like a "well,there goes the neighborhood" reaction. We left in the late 70s and have considered many times coming back. There are so many beautiful neighborhoods with gorgeous houses and great neighbors. Still, reasonable shopping areas are not nearby or walkable, and there is that whole thing about safety when running errands like buying gas or banking.

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Originally Posted by jt1

Do I think crime is the reason that people are leaving? Yes. Do I think that more people want to leave Detroit than other cities? Yes. Do I think that a significant number of people want to leave the city they live in, regardless of where? Yes. That last piece is ignored.

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The last piece is ignored, and I'm curious to know the stats. In most areas however, the folks who plan on leaving the city are balanced out by the folks who move into the city. That's obviously not the case here. Those moving in are a small fraction of those moving out.

While some may make a big deal out of the difference between property crime and violent crime, anyone in a high property crime area knows that a car theft or break-in can turn from a property crime to a violent crime if you have the misfortune to be victimized by someone willing to hurt or kill you to get away. There's a lot of potentially violent property crime committed every day.

So add the gnawing fear that a simple burglary will morph into an ass whupping or worse, to the constant guard one must keep about their surroundings, plus the places and things you can't let yourself or your family do due to the riskiness [[fill-up the car, park on the street, go for a run, walk to the park), plus the drudgery of replacing your car window, your lawnmower, your grill, your chained-down flower boxes or your door jamb all too often, and the knowledge that the cops aren't going to be there when you need them, and it just gets to be too much.

Then you see how "the other half" lives their life in an area that's not on 24/7 lockdown and its no wonder the exodus continues. CL was right.

[QUOTE=daveyarm;344669]Too bad the poll couldn't break out some neighborhoods that are thriving: Downtown, Midtown, Corktown, Woodbridge, etc. I feel certain the percentage of people wanting to leave would be much, much lower.[/QUOTE

You make a good point. I lived in a beautiful Midtown neighborhood. Great neighbors lovely homes, the street was cobblestone. I loved my house and I put a lot of work and money restoring it But the problem was it was still in Detroit and over the years I had become afraid to live there. I was fortunate that I didn't have to walk away from my house. A couple who moved here to teach at Wayne State fell in love with it immediately. Luckily they were New Yorkers and thought the price was a bargain and made an offer on the spot. They said the neighborhood and houses reminded them of where they lived in New York.

I dunno; I left because of the weather. But that was 1984. :)

Add to all the other fears is the constant fear of most women that they will be raped during a break-in or a car-jacking. That fear is always with you and adds exponentially to the general unease. Many recent home invasions in Detroit have ended in reports of old ladies being raped - last year an infamous incident of a gang-rape of an old, old lady. Detroit 300 tried mightily to solve that one.

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Originally Posted by michimoby

Would any sensible person accept the results of a Chicago-based poll if it lumped together the South Side and, say, Lake View? I'd question it, at least.

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I'm not sure why you would question it, if it were [[using your example) a poll about Chicago as a whole. There are a lot more South Side-type hood neighborhoods in Chicago than Lakeview-type yuppie neighborhoods.

Again, this is a poll about the City of Detroit, not two blocks near Wayne State. When you do a sample, you do a representative sample from the whole, not from some tiny sliver of your subject.

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Originally Posted by Detroit_uke

I'll be leaving next year - after 33 years in this house - just going to leave the key in the lock and walk far far away!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Depending on which neighborhood you're living in I wouldn't blame you. Housing is worthless in a lot of areas.

Exactly softrailrider....I would get NOTHING out of this house. There are 11 empty houses on this block - out of 36...some burned out - some boarded up. Not safe at all. Not a "walkable" neighborhood. Last year a total of 4 kids came for trick-or-treat...Not going to bother this year.

I don't disagree with any of these stories. I'm sure they're all real, and some of them are stories I witnessed back when I was living in EEV. I guess the question is why are these experience so vastly disparate from the day-to-day experience of living in today's Midtown? or Downtown?

And a bigger question...rather than looking to leave the city, why don't the people who are [[rightfully) angry look to move to safer neighborhoods within the city rather than just leaving it altogether?

I get annoyed when I hear "Detroit will come back" or "Detroit will never come back" or "Detroit is a crime haven" or "Detroit feels safe now". The reality is that all of these statements can be correct depending on the 1-mile radius in which you live.

We're at the point now where different areas within the same city shouldn't be in the same sentence. City Airport is nothing like DelRay is nothing like Rosedale Park.

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Originally Posted by corktownyuppie

I don't disagree with any of these stories. I'm sure they're all real, and some of them are stories I witnessed back when I was living in EEV. I guess the question is why are these experience so vastly disparate from the day-to-day experience of living in today's Midtown? or Downtown?

And a bigger question...rather than looking to leave the city, why don't the people who are [[rightfully) angry look to move to safer neighborhoods within the city rather than just leaving it altogether?

I get annoyed when I hear "Detroit will come back" or "Detroit will never come back" or "Detroit is a crime haven" or "Detroit feels safe now". The reality is that all of these statements can be correct depending on the 1-mile radius in which you live.

We're at the point now where different areas within the same city shouldn't be in the same sentence. City Airport is nothing like DelRay is nothing like Rosedale Park.

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If you live in Morningside or EEV or Conrnerstone Village, where are you going to move to?? On the east side everything west of there [[except for Indian Villiage and West Village) are worse off!

Morningside is speedily being hacked to death with houses dropping at an alarming rate. Even such beautiful streets such as 3 Mile Dr. and Courville are being decimated. The only buffer for EEV is Audobon and E. Outer Dr.

And east of Cadieux the housing stock of lower Cornerstone Village [[s. of Warren) has always been shabby. Brick bungalow northern Cornerstone Village is going downhill at a slower rate... but still owner occupied housing is fast being replaced by renters... So where's a person who's spent their entire life on the east side supposed to live, except high tail it out to Macomb County?

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Originally Posted by Gistok

If you live in Morningside or EEV or Conrnerstone Village, where are you going to move to?? On the east side everything west of there [[except for Indian Villiage and West Village) are worse off!

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So where's a person who's spent their entire life on the east side supposed to live, except high tail it out to Macomb County?

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Maybe they move to the NW Side?

This is the logic I don't understand. I get why you want to leave EEV. What I don't get is why the candidates for potential new homes does not include Rosedale Park, Indian Village, SW Detroit, Etc.