Printable View
Easy come, easy go.
Hopefully, this isn't the beginning of a downturn. But between interest rates rising, the economy slowing and $3/gallon gas returning, things aren't looking as rosy as they did before.
GM to cut second shift, 1,300 jobs at Detroit-Hamtramck
http://www.detroitnews.com/story/bus...lant/95641426/
There have been several articles about how car owners are "underwater" with their car loans. When they go to trade the car, they owe more for the car than the trade-in value. That the millenials don't buy cars the way the older generations do. It all makes sense that there would be a slow-down in car production. Wouldn't be surprised if the car mfrs start moving more productions to Mexico to cut cost.Quote:
Originally Posted by 313WX
Auto analysts have been predicting this since the summer. Most people have already purchased new vehicles within the last 3 years, so sales were going to slow eventually. It's not only a downturn, but all the plants that are being idled produce cars. Trucks and SUV's are still hot and in demand, since gas prices have been somewhat stable. That could all change though.
Two things. One, auto production is at an all time high, and although there are projections of a slowdown, it isn't going to be catastrophic. I read somewhere recently that they were still projecting in the 17-18 million a year autos produced range when the slowdown begins. Second, President Trump has said he will slap a high tariff on products sent over his wall to the USA for consumption. Will the automakers disregard the threats and move car production anyways? It will be interesting to see how that game plays out.Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicago48
There's no planned "wall" or "high tariff". That was just nonsense from our Con-Man in Chief to fool racists and those who slept through Econ 101.Quote:
Originally Posted by mikeg19
There's also no "moved car production". Can't blame brown people on this one. There's too much fullsize car/truck inventory, so they're cutting capacity.Quote:
Originally Posted by mikeg19
I sincerely hope those employed in the auto industry aren't spending their record bonuses on stupid stuff, because the party is likely ending. This is a highly cyclical industry, and the last few years have been fantastic.
And let's not forget the robots. You can idle and lay off robots better and quicker than people.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bham1982
Am I correct in thinking that the second shift at Hamtramck assembly was operated for less than a year?
I don't know about that...... robots don't like to be messed with.Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicago48
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K6iF5sINVns
Robots like any mechanical device like to be exercised to keep parts lubricated. I would be curious to know if there is a "keep alive" program that runs to accomplish this. I don't have any experience with manufacturing robots, just stories from manufacturing based relatives.Quote:
Originally Posted by Chicago48
You are correct. They were onboarded in January.Quote:
Originally Posted by renf
There's also no "moved car production". Can't blame brown people on this one. There's too much fullsize car/truck inventory, so they're cutting capacity.
I sincerely hope those employed in the auto industry aren't spending their record bonuses on stupid stuff
This is totally false regarding full-size truck inventory being high. The big 3 will be greatly expanding truck/cuv production, which are the most profitable vehicles. LGR, Lordstown, and DHam will be cutting shifts because they only build cars, which are not selling cause gas is cheap.
Long term DHam will be picking up more vehicles and adding shifts.
Why is GM idling five factories if there are no inventory issues?Quote:
Originally Posted by Rock N Rye
Remember, the break even point in terms of number of unit sold is much lower than it was before the bailout, so even if things slow, GM will still be turning a profit, which would dramatically reduce the chances of company wide bloodletting that was common in the past when a slowdown arrived.
Could be a million other reasons. I'm sure they don't just look at inventory, but are also projecting future demand by model. Might be they need cash for investment elsewhere, and would prefer to draw inventory down? Maybe they want to announce the new jobs 'created' by the Trump administration to please their new master.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bham1982
I hope that the unemployment administrators in state government are accommodating. This is a lot of layoffs. No comparable industries are doing mass hiring. That Amazon/Livonia situation isn't set to open until next October.
Could you elaborate on this comment?Quote:
Originally Posted by Rock N Rye
Dham will be benefitting from vehicles moving from Oshawa, which was scheduled to close, but will remain open at least through 2020 by building extra full-size pickups to meet higher demand.Quote:
Originally Posted by 313WX
Because they are not selling cars. They are doing all they can to increase production at plants that make trucks / large CUVs. Luckily GM and Ford are in a better place to adapt to market demands then they were before the recession, but it still takes some time. FCA is screwed if gas prices go way up again.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rock N Rye
The only vehicle poised to be built at Dham [[that isn't already there full time, as Dham has been an overflow plant for it) is the Chevrolet Impala.
As far as Oshawa, only overflow production of the Chevrolet Silverado and the Cadillac XTS will be built there.
Speaking to Trucks / SUVs specifically, long term, none of this means anything if demand is poised to steadily decrease because of rising gas prices and interest rates. There's no need to increase headcount or even keep the headcount they already have.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rock N Rye
I'm more concerned about the workers in American assembly plants than the health of the overall company. While it's true as Ford and GM as a whole are in a better place to handle a change in market demand from Trucks / SUVs to cars, it's not going to be the workers in Mexico or China who lose their jobs when this happens.
What new jobs? He hasn't even taken office yet. And I highly doubt he's going to be this economic spinmaster anyway. Let's hope Trump isn't more bark, than bite.Quote:
Originally Posted by Wesley Mouch
Look at the factories being idled/having shifts eliminated. They produce cars, not trucks/SUV's [[mostly). At Ford, we are balls to the wall with truck and SUV production.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bham1982
In the last five weeks, the interest rates has gone up considerably rapidly along with the price of gasoline. This sure suggests a slow down in vehicle production in the short run future. The very strong dollar will reduce the cost of vehicles assembled abroad.
You think so? I don't know about abroad, but here, the average price of a new car or truck is almost $35,000. I agree though, rising interest rates and gasoline, isn't a good sign.Quote:
Originally Posted by renf
https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/t...w-above-34000/