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Detroit Tops List of Hard-To-Count Cities Ahead of Census
An Associated Press analysis finds that Detroit tops the list of cities that will be hardest to count in the 2020 census.
Associated Press Dec. 12, 2019
https://www.usnews.com/news/us/artic...head-of-census
Census 2020 is important for Michigan and Detroit. Most people and observers take population increase as a positive indicator of what’s haabdpening in a city or state and population decline as a negative sign. Michigan is destined to lose one congressional seat and one Electoral College vote on the basis of nest April’s count.
Population loss has greatly decreased in Detroit. From 2000 to 2010, the city lost 25% of its residents. From 2010 to 2018, the loss was only 6%. The substantial movement of African Americans from the city to the suburbs has slowed and the white population of the city is growing. From 2010 to 2018, the African-American population of Detroit was down only 11% while the white population increased by 34%.
Census data are indirectly linked to the allocation of $1.5 trillion in federal dollars to states every year. If Michigan is substantially undercounted, Michigan will lose funds to other states that do a better job of counting their population. In fiscal ’16, Michigan obtained $29 billion in federal funds on the basis of Census Bureau data linked to the decennial count.
In Michigan one-quarter of total state sales tax revenue is returned to local governments on the basis of the population size as counted in the census. If there is an undercount in Detroit, the city will lose funds to other
municipalities that do a better job of counting their residents.
Does census ever really count anybody that well? It feels like these numbers are mostly just guesstimates.
I have been counted twice in the last 5 years,not that I count,but it is a guesstimate.Quote:
Originally Posted by Metro25
The funnest one is with illegal immigrants,how do you count somebody that you do not know is there.
It kinda seems like with population movement as does the voting body but most are going to stick to what they choose,but it appears at times that the preference is for Detroit as a city,not to pretty much control the rest of the state as it could should it re-gain the base that it had.
I believe it's reasonably accurate. However, for genealogists, both today and tomorrow, it's a godsend for tracing family lines. Census reports are held in confidence for 72 years; only the round numbers are given out before that, not specific persons. Being born in 1936, I greatly enjoyed finding my name on the 1940 census report for Grand Rapids, released in 2012. Hope I'm still here in 2022 to view the 1950 report!
The Census Bureau and many demographer outside the federal civil service
conduct many studies of the accuracy of the census using a variety of methods. There is pretty much consensus that Census 2020 was accurate with an undecount rate of not much more than 0.1%. However, there is
also consensus that children under age 5 were undercounted by as much as 5% while college age individuals and those over age 65 were overcounted. That is, college students may be counted in the dormitories and also by their parents. Every city manager in Florida will strong encourage all residents of their cities to be counted in March or April but more than a few of those snow birds will also be counted in Michigan.
There is also a racial difference in coverage. In 2010, the white population was overcounted by 0.8% but the Hispanic population was undercounted by 1.5% and the African-American population by 2.5%.
There is a very extensive array of studies of census undercount including some that estimate over or undercount rates for cities and counties.
There's all those folks using suburban addresses for insurance as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by Metro25
While everyone would like to be cautiously optmistic, it would be a good idea to brace one's self for more surprises in the upcoming Census, given how piss poor the estimates were from 2000 - 2010.
The Census Bureau estimates were reasonably accurate for 2001 through 2008. The 2009 estimate was way off. Detroit advocates asked the Census Bureau to redo the procedures they used for the 2009 estimate and the Census Bureau did so. Thus the 2009 estimate was way too large. After that the Census Bureau reverted to using their former procedures.
There will, undoubtedly, be some surprises in the 2020 census counts.
Here is Detroit estimated census since 2018
669,000... These are the people who took up residency in Detroit.
There are over 530,000 Blacks 78%, 100,000 Whites 13%, about 51,000 Hispanics 7%
However there are over 25,000 people who are not permanent residence in Detroit like the homeless. They will not be counted in the 2020 Census. And over 20,000 immigrants who are not yet U.S. citizens. They will not be counted on the 2020 Census.
So Detroit's estimate population is about 715,000.
The person who is running the census program for the city was at our neighborhood association meeting a few months back. She outlined the way the count works and the unique ways they will be making sure Detroit is accurately counted. It is a fascinating combination of technology and just straight up guessing. Based on her presentation though, I am pretty sure Detroit will not be undercounted.
Homeless, college students, and immigrants will all be counted in the census. Literally anyone sleeping in Detroit on April 1, 2020...under a bridge, in a bed, or on a couch should be counted.Quote:
Originally Posted by Danny
Which means that census person will only count the people are take up residence in Detroit. Only you have to do is look at the person's ID.Quote:
Originally Posted by DetroitSoldier
They are not going to find all them. Some of them are running away to another town.Quote:
Originally Posted by DetroitSoldier
They don't all need to be counted head by head. There is an algorithm used based on shelter enrollmens, social organization research, known encampments, and just straight driving around. It has been in the works for a few years and tested with reasonable accuracy. We may not get an exact number but there will not be a major undercount.Quote:
Originally Posted by Danny
It wasn't only Detroit that got a revised estimate for 2009. Chicago and Cleveland also got their estimates revised up, quite substantially, between 2008 and 2009. The 2008 estimates for those two cities were actually extremely accurate according to the 2010 census, while the 2009 estimate was wildly overstated. On the other hand, even Detroit's 2008 estimate was significantly overstated, since it was off by nearly 100,000 from the actual 2010 population.Quote:
Originally Posted by renf
For decades, the Census Bureau has organized a t-night procedure for a date just prior to the enumeration [[transitory residents night). Specially trained enumerators, after consulting with the police and shelter provides, go to unusual places where people may be sleeping.
There is also a special procedure for people living in group quarters such as prisons, dormitories, facilities for the mentally troubled and the like. In
these places, administrative records may assist in the census count.
Census data are confidential for 72 years. A person who lives in Detroit but puts down a suburban address for purposes of buying auto insurance, will not be outed by the census. Nevertheless, there are likely to be some
Detroit residents who will not fill out the census forms and some domitory
residents at Wayne and U of D who will be counted twice - once in their
dorm and once at their parents' home.
more people need to be hired to work full-and part-time for the Census to go into neighborhoods for counts. Publicize the efforts more. Partner with local institutions in neighborhoods: block clubs, houses of worship, etc.
I was a Census Enumerator for 2010 and we were only sent to specific homes that did not send the Census forms back. Partnering with local institutions is what we did and for the most part nothing changed the fact that majority of residents did their part while other residents disregarded the mail or refused to take part.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hypestyles
Majority of addresses we were sent to were vacant houses, and houses with friendly families who just didn't take it the first time. Enumerators are sent to the neighborhood in which they reside so most blocks you were familiar with.
A lot of people in Detroit refuse to take the Census based on the mind state that the government knows too much information as it is and already knows who is who in their household.