Windsor Goes Orange

http://detroityes.com/webisodes/2014/windsor-73784.jpg

For those of us on the northside, who may not know it, Ontario Provincial elections were held yesterday. This is the equivalent of a gubernatorial and legislative election in Michigan, like will occur in November minus the election of federal legislators.

The elections saw the NDP sweep the three parliamentary ridings [districts] that comprise Windsor, suburbs and beyond - Windsor West, Windsor Tecumseh and Essex but saw a the Liberal Party [equivalent to centrist Democrats here] capture majority control of the Ontario parliament. The NDP party color is orange hence the the subject line. [How am I doing my Canadian friends?] The New Democratic Party are equivalent to left progressive Democrats here.

So nobody can fling the name 'Liberal' at Windsor. The only one they had just got voted out in Windsor West.

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Gretzky’s [Windsor West NDP] victory means the closest sitting member of Kathleen Wynne’s [Premier of Ontario] majority Liberal cabinet will be Deb Matthews in London North Centre.

It’s also the first time there has not been a Liberal MPP representing Windsor and Essex County at Queen’s Park since 1926.
From Windsor Star

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I am curious about the take of this by our Canadian member. How does this effect Windsor's share of the Ontario pie and such? The defeated Liberal in Windsor West was to be in the cabinet.

http://detroityes.com/webisodes/2014...or-ridings.jpg

Kathleen Wynne is the also the first elected gay leader of any government in the Commonwealth or English speaking nation.

She won a majority, after the NDP wouldn't support her budget. The NDP however returns to QP with the same amount of MLAs as before.

There a number of implications from the election, both in general; for Ontario; and for Windsor.

Some quick general facts:

The newly elected government is Liberal; and led by Kathleen Wynn.

This was the same government as prior to the election, with one notable change; from a minority to a majority.

For our American friends, in Canada the legislative and the executive function as one [[the premier has to be elected in her own district); and therefore governments function quite differently if they command a majority of seats in the legislature vs a minority [[the former is near carte-blanche to implement their platform, where the latter holds them on a short-leash, requiring the support of at least one other party)

Ontario's Parties: PC [[Progressive Conservative, would be our 'right-wing' option), but note that they wouldn't dream of sacking public medicare which is sacrosanct across the political spectrum. In reality they would probably be centrist democrats in the US.

Liberal: Typically considered our 'centrist' option; and probably comparable to left-leaning democrats; though they are a 'big tent' party.

NDP: Typically called 'socialists' a party founded by a mix of agrarian populists and the union movement.

*** However, in this particular election the LIBERALS ran to the LEFT of the NDP.....or the NDP ran to their right, take your choice.

The Conservatives ran to the far right, by Ontario standards.

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Whew, now what does it all mean??? And does it have any real effect on Windsor or even Detroit?

Beyond the political platform aspect that will mostly affect Ontarians, as a group; there are some regional and probable cross-border impacts.

First; Ontario just raised its minimum wage to $11 per hour; and the winning party proposed to raise wages for homecare workers to at least $16.50 per hour and raise the wages of low-pay childcare staff by at least $2 per hour.

The impact of that will be to raise the spending power of lower and low-middle income Ontarians, and will likely have some positive economic impact on Windsor specifically and some spillover in cross-border shopping.

Its also true that governments wherever they are mindful of what folks are doing just across their borders as it affects 'competitiveness'. Of course Michigan just raised its minimum wage; as has New York.

But subject to what happens in Ohio and Indiana and maybe Federally in the US next year, this likely suggests a trend-line towards higher minimum wages in the near-term.

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Next, the new government is and has been a huge proponent of the new bridge, expect this to proceed apace.

Also on the transportation file, the Liberals promised High-Speed Rail between Windsor and Toronto within a decade or so; Don't hold your breath on the timeline; but I do expect significant rail investments in s/w Ontario to go forward with at least 200km/ph service [[130m/ph) between Toronto and London and studies on extending that to Windsor.

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I don't think you will see materially less Windsor investment, because most Windsor area seats would be considered in-play in the next election for the Liberals, which means they have a political reason as much as practical one for investing here.

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Finally, despite how the vote went, Ontario's fiscal situation isn't great. Running a provincial deficit somewhere in the 12 Billion range. While commitments have been made to balance the books by 2017-2018; that would likely involve severe fiscal restraint not promised in the campaign.

I fully expect you will end up seeing some nasty labour disputes [[strikes) and probably some tax hikes [[possibly 1% on our sales tax) in the next year or 2, as moves are made to bring the deficit to heel.

Great summary Canadian Visitor.

A high speed rail to Toronto could benefit Detroit-Windsor for weekend vacationing and maybe help encourage rent-overpriced businesses in Toronto to consider Windsor which has all the big city attractions just across a river.

It's good to hear the Liberals are so strongly behind the new bridge.

Interesting connection of minimum raise to cross-border shopping, which makes me interested in your take on this.

Cross-border shopping as far as I can see is pretty much a one-way street. The only time I can think of that differing a bit was in the pre-911 era of kiddie bars, the Windsor Casino and 'Windsor Ballet' bars attracted American 'shoppers'.

I am curious as the politics of that. Windsor businesses and gas stations must feel a hit. Or is the hit from bridge/tunnel fees enough to keep that drain slow enough? Thoughts?

I think the comparison to American politics is a little inaccurate. I find that the NDP are more left than any mainstream party in the USA. The Liberal Party is probably closer to progressive Democrats. The Progressive Conservatives [[or just Conservatives if you're dealing with federal politics) are close to moderate Republicans, although they've been moving more right in recent years.

Don't you all love Canadian Politics, folks. Pure socialist, well balance, less talk and more union action. I wish we have this in Detroit and Michigan.

I want Michigan to be part of Canada.

For a long time I've wished we had a multi-party parliamentary system in the U.S. I think its inherently more democratic and much more likely to give people a voice in their government, as compared with our winner-take-all approach with only two dominant political parties.

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Originally Posted by samsonov

I think the comparison to American politics is a little inaccurate. I find that the NDP are more left than any mainstream party in the USA. The Liberal Party is probably closer to progressive Democrats. The Progressive Conservatives [[or just Conservatives if you're dealing with federal politics) are close to moderate Republicans, although they've been moving more right in recent years.

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"Moderate Republicans"? Oh yes, I remember them. May they rest in peace, as alas they are no more.....

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Originally Posted by Lowell

Cross-border shopping as far as I can see is pretty much a one-way street. The only time I can think of that differing a bit was in the pre-911 era of kiddie bars, the Windsor Casino and 'Windsor Ballet' bars attracted American 'shoppers'.

I am curious as the politics of that. Windsor businesses and gas stations must feel a hit. Or is the hit from bridge/tunnel fees enough to keep that drain slow enough? Thoughts?

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Cross-border shopping in south-west Ontario is mostly a one-way street for a variety of reasons.

That could constitute its own thread.

Its also dis-proportionate on the west coast though not quite as much.

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To keep this somewhat concise, for this thread........

Price is by far the biggest driver, typically U.S. sales taxes are lower, but core prices are in some products, as well. [[notably gas, beer, dairy, and chicken, but also autoparts)

Of course Cdn businesses aren't thrilled; however, its not a large political issue.

While min. wage does drive higher costs on this side of border, universal health cov'g means way lower benefit costs, corporate and payroll taxes are also lower on this side of the border. So the cost of doing business isn't materially higher hear except for a lower economy of scale, longer distances between major markets and some impacts from 'country pricing'

Typically here the belief is that wholesalers milk Canada a bit through higher country pricing [[the perception we're willing to spend more) and retailers and mall owners in Canada typically take a higher margin that those in the U.S. as well.

Where you do see some cross-border shopping is Buffalo/Rochester residents in Toronto, to take in theatre/pro-sports/restaurants etc. and we're typically the closest destination for many big/high-end retailers [[even more so once Nordstrom and Sak's open in Toronto in the next 2 years).

That will never be the case in Windsor, where the big-City retail, IF it exists is far more on the U.S. side.

The other long-standing factor is that Canadians are much more likely to hold passports, making it much easier for more of us to cross the border. I believe the U.S. has caught up in recent years, however, there is still a spread.

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Originally Posted by DetroiterOnTheWestCoast

For a long time I've wished we had a multi-party parliamentary system in the U.S. I think its inherently more democratic and much more likely to give people a voice in their government, as compared with our winner-take-all approach with only two dominant political parties.

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Multi-party systems do provide more opportunity for varying political views......however.

When it comes to mandates, in a first-past-the-post political system [[one in which the person with the most votes win the local district, even if they have far short of 50%) ...

You do get outcomes that can border on illegitimate in both directions [[politically)

Take this election. The Liberals got 38% of the vote, The Conservatives 31%, the NDP 24%, the Greens 5%

The Liberals got 57 seats out of 107 [[a majority of the legislature), The Conservatives only 28, NDP 22, Greens 0.

Now consider, voter turn-out was an appalling 51.5%

So in reality the party here that now has 100% of the power [[more or less); got voted in by 19% of eligible voters.

That is in no way a preference for the 2-party system; but I would prefer a more proportional model and/or a run-off model.

I also think we need to do something about voter turnout before it gets any worse. Not that I want uninformed/apathetic souls marking a random 'x' but a disengaged electorate is worrisome.

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Originally Posted by Danny

Don't you all love Canadian Politics, folks. Pure socialist, well balance, less talk and more union action. I wish we have this in Detroit and Michigan.

I want Michigan to be part of Canada.

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You seriously don't want this.

The Province of Ontario is running a debt of almost $300billion, over twice that of the State of Michigan, and it's spiraling out of control. Manufacturing plants like the St. Thomas Ford Assembly plant [[a perfectly good plant) shut down with production moving to Michigan like many other manufacturing plants because of all the red tape and high costs of operating in Ontario. The Province is living on borrowed time and money and on the road to bankruptcy like the City of Detroit. It's now considered a have not province unlike Western Canada.

And yes, the Liberals have cut public jobs in Windsor. Take for instance the Windsor Slots and Raceway. Shut down by the Liberals even though with the slots the facility was making more than enough money to cover its costs. That's jobs unnecessarily lost.

Liberal pork barreling in the greater Toronto area and corrupt politicians lining their pockets will continue at the expense of the rest of the province such as the billion dollar gas fire plants scandal and hundreds of millions in bailout money to Toronto real estate developers. It's a sad time for Ontario.

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Originally Posted by davewindsor

You seriously don't want this.

The Province of Ontario is running a debt of almost $300billion, over twice that of the State of Michigan, and it's spiraling out of control. Manufacturing plants like the St. Thomas Ford Assembly plant [[a perfectly good plant) shut down with production moving to Michigan like many other manufacturing plants because of all the red tape and high costs of operating in Ontario. The Province is living on borrowed time and money and on the road to bankruptcy like the City of Detroit. It's now considered a have not province unlike Western Canada.

And yes, the Liberals have cut public jobs in Windsor. Take for instance the Windsor Slots and Raceway. Shut down by the Liberals even though with the slots the facility was making more than enough money to cover its costs. That's jobs unnecessarily lost.

Liberal pork barreling in the greater Toronto area and corrupt politicians lining their pockets will continue at the expense of the rest of the province such as the billion dollar gas fire plants scandal and hundreds of millions in bailout money to Toronto real estate developers. It's a sad time for Ontario.

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WHOA!

Chill Pill time!

Dave, the man just gave our province a compliment; a little humble-ness is always healthy; acknowledging that the 'grass isn't always that much greener' is good too; as that is often the truth, no matter what two places you compare.

However.....

Just because your preferred party didn't win and you don't agree w/every decision made, does not entitle you to your own set of 'facts' that barely butt up against the truth.

Ontario's debt is a concern and will have to be tackled, no doubt. However, its only around 40% of GDP, which when taken together w/the Federal debt is less than 80%, which put us collectively in a slightly better spot than the U.S. and a much better spot than 3/4 of OECD nations.

A problem yes, a crisis 'no'.

As to 'have not' province status, you are aware, that this is a 'relative' ranking, and that roughly 1/2 of all provinces are always 'have not' in that they produce less tax revenue per citizen than the 'average'. Alberta was on the wrong side of that ledger for much of the 1990s and almost every year prior to the mid 70s; it, like Newfoundland and Saskatchewan are enjoying commodity-price induced booms which clearly put them 'above' the average; which by definition makes Ontario lower.

As for manufacturing plants; the government doesn't decide to move those; the companies do. While energy costs are up slightly for manufactures [[but not much as they get a discounted rate); corporate taxes are now lower in Ontario and Canada than they have been in 5 decades and lower than they are in Michigan on a combined [[Fed+State) basis. There are a variety of reasons for closures and relocation, including down-sizing, capacity utilization, workforce productivity, payroll taxes, cost of health benefits, retiree costs, unions and or union-relations, environmental regulations and one-time tax incentive packages sometimes called 'corporate welfare'; which every jurisdiction engages in, sadly.

To paint a factory closure as the death knell of the province is rather over done.

And on behalf of those of us living a bit further east, where we have more skyscrapers under construction than anywhere else in North America [[or anywhere period outside of China); w/low-vacancy rates, and rising incomes etc, you shouldn't assume because your local situation has its troubles that this applies everywhere equally.

I might add, some very good things are coming to Windsor, not just the new bridge. [[some local, some funded by higher-order gov't) ......

Look for a face-lifted University [[the road); the new downtown campus of the University, a new mega-hospital with state-of-the-art facilities, and several other items to boot.

As final note, I'm not a partisan in any way shape or form......; nor am I un-sceptical about the shortcomings of government, I just don't like to see anyone being so utterly negative about anywhere, let alone the province I live in; nor so blind to the facts.

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Originally Posted by Canadian Visitor

WHOA!

Chill Pill time!

Dave, the man just gave our province a compliment; a little humble-ness is always healthy; acknowledging that the 'grass isn't always that much greener' is good too; as that is often the truth, no matter what two places you compare.

However.....

Just because your preferred party didn't win and you don't agree w/every decision made, does not entitle you to your own set of 'facts' that barely butt up against the truth.

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You take a chill pill. You can't manipulate the facts. Facts are facts and honesty is a good thing. The debt more than doubled under the liberals. The last time the PCs were in power, they balanced the budget. Once the fiberals were elected, they changed the accounting method to make it look like the PCs were running a deficit so they could raise the taxes. I remember that one and all the environmental taxes that started sprouting its ugly head like the extra tire tax when I went to replace my trailer tires. Then I got a tax bill in the mail for the used sailboat I bought, when then DMV told me I only had to pay tax on the trailer portion of the sale. A new gas guzzler tax when I bought a new vehicle. Paint can eco fee. Eco fee on new light bulbs. Eco fee on almost every fricken thing I buy in addition to a 13% sales tax. I saw taxes coming out the wazoo. Then my hydro bills skyrocketed. My commercial hydro bills skyrocketed over 80% to cover corruption like the gas plant scandal and subsidized windmills and solar panels.

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Originally Posted by Canadian Visitor

Ontario's debt is a concern and will have to be tackled, no doubt. However, its only around 40% of GDP, which when taken together w/the Federal debt is less than 80%, which put us collectively in a slightly better spot than the U.S. and a much better spot than 3/4 of OECD nations.

A problem yes, a crisis 'no'.

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If you reread what i said, I never said we are a bankrupt province, but we are on the "road" to it. What do think is going to happen when we run large deficits and the debt increases every year? Our debt is half that of the federal government of all of Canada. It's ridiculous!

Our province has LOST 300,000 manufacturing jobs under the liberals. Have you been to Windsor? How many automotive plants have we lost? A ton of them. Kelsey-Hayes, Martinrea, Champion Sparkplug, GM is completely gone from this city and Jones' Demolition already has a sign up on the last GM Transmission plant. It's a HUGE list. Kellog's and Heinz recently left for the US. Another company bought out the Heinz plant offering a fraction of the jobs at half the pay. So what have the liberals done? Seriously nothing. They just sugar coat everything like you are doing when there is a real problem happening in this province and they continue to line up their own corrupt pockets while screwing over the taxpayer.

Look up the now claiming over billion dollar MaRS Toronto real estate developer bailout, the billion dollar gas plant cancellation, multi-million dollar cleaning contract scandal, Orgne Helicopter scandal, the police investigating Wynne's office destroying documents to the scandals. It's just awful what they doing to this province.

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Originally Posted by Canadian Visitor

As to 'have not' province status, you are aware, that this is a 'relative' ranking, and that roughly 1/2 of all provinces are always 'have not' in that they produce less tax revenue per citizen than the 'average'. Alberta was on the wrong side of that ledger for much of the 1990s and almost every year prior to the mid 70s; it, like Newfoundland and Saskatchewan are enjoying commodity-price induced booms which clearly put them 'above' the average; which by definition makes Ontario lower.

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No matter how much you try to sugar coat it, the FACT is that we are now a HAVE NOT province and its cheaper for industry to move out west or out of Canada completely. In Alberta, energy rates are lower, income tax is lower, no provincial sales tax, less government regulation and it's much easier to operate.

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Originally Posted by Canadian Visitor

As for manufacturing plants; the government doesn't decide to move those; the companies do. While energy costs are up slightly for manufactures [[but not much as they get a discounted rate); corporate taxes are now lower in Ontario and Canada than they have been in 5 decades and lower than they are in Michigan on a combined [[Fed+State) basis. There are a variety of reasons for closures and relocation, including down-sizing, capacity utilization, workforce productivity, payroll taxes, cost of health benefits, retiree costs, unions and or union-relations, environmental regulations and one-time tax incentive packages sometimes called 'corporate welfare'; which every jurisdiction engages in, sadly.

To paint a factory closure as the death knell of the province is rather over done.

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YES, the government is responsible for industry leaving when through their tax structures, rules and regulations, they make it uncompetitive to operate in comparison to other jurisdictions.

Corporate tax is 2.5 points lower in Alberta than in Ontario.

AGAIN, 300,000 manufacturing jobs lost under the Ontario Liberals and more is coming.

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Originally Posted by Canadian Visitor

And on behalf of those of us living a bit further east, where we have more skyscrapers under construction than anywhere else in North America [[or anywhere period outside of China); w/low-vacancy rates, and rising incomes etc, you shouldn't assume because your local situation has its troubles that this applies everywhere equally.

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You're referring to the greater Toronto area. When was the last time a skyscraper was built in Windsor-Essex? Since the past couple decades, we had what? Caesar's Windsor Hotel construction fully subsidized by the government?

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Originally Posted by Canadian Visitor

I might add, some very good things are coming to Windsor, not just the new bridge. [[some local, some funded by higher-order gov't) ......

Look for a face-lifted University [[the road); the new downtown campus of the University, a new mega-hospital with state-of-the-art facilities, and several other items to boot.

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That's a load of crap. The bridge was because of pork barreling. Toyota made the bridge a condition of investing any more money in Ontario, so it's more pork barreling for Cambridge to keep Toyota, an hour from Toronto.

We got screwed over the Windsor Slots and Raceway, while the GTA got to keep Woodbine Slots and Raceway.

Windsor is gonna get further screwed by a party that loves to pork barrel their own ridings since we lost the only liberal representative. There will not be a new mega hospital now and we're gonna see higher gas taxes to pay for more pork barreling Toronto subway lines and public works.

As for the face lifted University Avenue, it's not gonna happen. That was Mayor Francis' plan and he's said he's not running again. Besides, Francis couldn't get the Greek church to move to the Grace site and the only new thing there is that restaurant opening up in the old streetcar warehouse; otherwise, the area is dying. Downtown is still dying. A lot less nightclubs and lots of for rent signs on storefronts. The Paul Martin building will most likely be demolished for parking with all those government workers moving to London. You're dreaming if you think it's gonna get better. There's no political advantage for the provincial or federal government to help out this city anymore.

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Originally Posted by Canadian Visitor

As final note, I'm not a partisan in any way shape or form......; nor am I un-sceptical about the shortcomings of government, I just don't like to see anyone being so utterly negative about anywhere, let alone the province I live in; nor so blind to the facts.

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It's obvious you're partisan when you brought up preferred parties and claimed I was making up my own set of facts when it's you who is trying to sugar cost the truth through your blindness to the liberals.

TRUTH. We lost 300,000 manufacturing jobs under the liberals reign.
TRUTH. We got tax and hydro increases up the wazoo.
TRUTH. Our debt more than doubled under the fiberals and they haven't been able to get it under control.
TRUTH. The fiberals are going to pork barrel the GTA even more at the expense of disenfranchised areas like Windsor-Essex.

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Originally Posted by Canadian Visitor

And on behalf of those of us living a bit further east, where we have more skyscrapers under construction than anywhere else in North America [[or anywhere period outside of China); w/low-vacancy rates, and rising incomes etc, you shouldn't assume because your local situation has its troubles that this applies everywhere equally.

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Interesting, because last summer I drove through Toronto on the way back from Quebec. It had been 25 years since I was last there. I was immediately dumb-struck by the sea of apartment / office towers and cranes. And that it was so sprawled out, not just concentrated around downtown. The parallel to a Chinese boom city is appropriate.

I wonder if the fact that Canadian banks avoided the easy-money policies that created the financial disaster in the US allowed for the ability/confidence to finance this boom.

But to Davewindsor's point, why is there comparatively so little construction activity in Windsor?

As I have heard Toronto has benefited from the center of Canadian finance moving from Montreal to TO. Windsor is like Detroit, at the whims of manufacturing and therefore in the same cycle of stagnation.

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Originally Posted by Canadian Visitor

Now consider, voter turn-out was an appalling 51.5%.

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Amusing. That would be exciting in the US where an equivalent election only gets a 30-40% turnout.

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Originally Posted by Lowell

I wonder if the fact that Canadian banks avoided the easy-money policies that created the financial disaster in the US allowed for the ability/confidence to finance this boom.

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The differences in banking certainly didn't hurt; though there are a variety of other issues at play.

Its not as if Canadian banks don't carry risks, particularly in what is an over-heated market here in now, in Toronto, and likewise Vancouver on the west coast.

But, Canadian banks have had to maintain somewhat higher capital ratios; are just a bit more conservative by nature, in regulation the government flirted with allowing 40-year amortization here but changed its mind quickly. That said, I don't think that in its own right, is a key factor.

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Originally Posted by Lowell

But to Davewindsor's point, why is there comparatively so little construction activity in Windsor?

As I have heard Toronto has benefited from the center of Canadian finance moving from Montreal to TO. Windsor is like Detroit, at the whims of manufacturing and therefore in the same cycle of stagnation.

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Toronto has industry, a fair bit for a big city, though much less proportionately than a place like Windsor. It is the big financial city, of course, for Canada, but also as a capital city and the most populous, the home of 'big medicine', 'big academia', a large number of corporate head offices and so on.

But for all that, all of which plays a role, the biggest thing going on here is the explosion of population, about 70,000 per year in the city proper, but about 200,000 per year in the Greater Toronto Area.

That fuels a construction boom to service all those folks w/home and retail and transportation etc.

In turn alot of the 'blue collar' workforce is hired for construction jobs; while the money they generate throw's off white-collar jobs.

The immigration boom is self-fulfilling in that Toronto now has one of the largest mandarin-speaking populations outside China, one of the largest hindi-speaking populations outside India etc. etc.

That, along with a very accepting culture that has long had Sikh police where turbans and where the typical white person knows what a banh-mi sandwich is makes us an attractive destination.

Of course, there lots of problems here, traffic among them; along w/soaring real estate prices; $500,000 will buy you a 640sq ft condo, or a house in the distant burbs. Anything nice and well located starts at 650k.

But still, good problems to have, on the whole.

Windsor is/was more industrial, its aging more, and alot of its 'hub' infrastructure [[international flights, specialized healthcare) is found on the U.S. side of the border.

Still, like Detroit, if well-managed, I think it has a bright future. I think the move to create the downtown campus for the University will spur some new vitality in the core, and a new mega-hospital should put most elite medical services right in Windsor proper; provided it does get better rail links to London and Toronto, it should recover nicely over time; it will also benefit from any recovery in Detroit.

The whole Ontario provincial election was a giant farce from beginning to end. Tim Hudak's Conservative election campaign was nick-named "Dodge Caravan" by the media because he couldn't answer one simple question: how could he make promises to spend more on education, health care and public transit while cutting taxes, laying off 100,000 civil servants and downsizing government? Kathleen Wynne's Liberals promised more of everything without telling the voters how she was going to pay all her campaign promises and Andrea Horwath's NDP didn't have one original ideal to offer. The only good thing to come out of this election was the Conservative party finally coming to their senses and getting rid of Hudak and his Republican campaign advisors for good.

I'm concerned about the election results. It's important for the area to have at least one member in government. Without a presence in power, the chances that Windsor will get a new megahospital anytime soon are reduced. The long-term future of the Chrysler plant is also a concern.

The reason Windsor has seen little highrise development is simply because the city hasn't been growing. We are too far away from Toronto [[and it's environs) to tap into any of the boom that has been going on there.