I believe it is inevitable Detroit will get a real mass transit system, in the next 15-20 years, any opinions. any comment. It happened in Houston, Charlotte and Phoenix
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I believe it is inevitable Detroit will get a real mass transit system, in the next 15-20 years, any opinions. any comment. It happened in Houston, Charlotte and Phoenix
Until the 52 suburbs, townships and county governments can work together for the good of the region, i don't see it happening.
I don't see a transit mess being good for anything but draining tax coffers.
Yeah Meddle all the positives of pollution, grid lick, widening of roads ruining Urban landscapes, ugly ass parking lots and plazas, historic buildings being torn down for parking and the recent discovery that the powder of grinding down the brakes may be toxic. The only reason we don't have an RTA is because LBP was against it. Wayne said Yes, Wastenaw said Yes, Macomb said fuck no and Oakland barely said no. Next time it's only the ballot I betting it would past especially if brooksy boy is gone.
Which one of those cities used 100% property taxes to raise the local funding?Quote:
Originally Posted by shawring
How the money is raised to pay for mass transit is critical if you actually want to have it. It would seem that simple fact would be pretty obvious around here by now but maybe we need to bash our heads against the same wall one more time.
Ultimately, funding for mass transit comes down to a question of political will. You can debate the costs and benefits but without political will, nothing will happen. That will simply does not exist in Detroit, and it hasn't for generations. This is unlikely to change.
Detroit may therefore never have a proper mass transit system. It's not the end of the world, but it certainly doesn't signal that the region is in any way progressive. It symbolic of a region that is backwards, resistant to change, unable to change, and therefore not a particularly good place to do business.
No, transit won't change everything but it will change mindsets, and how we see ourselves and how others see us. Even the transit skeptics here should understand this. In a time when our industries are collapsing around us and the region is in steady decline, it's a worthy investment, something to change attitudes, to feel more optimistic, to look towards the future.
It won't happen in my lifetime, and I'm in my mid 50's .
I've lost all hope that Detroit will ever have fully functional mass transit.
When I think Detroit, I include the nearby communities like Warren too.
Metro Detroit, the metropolis, the metropolitan area, moving efficiently ?
The Michigan Constitution needs to change to allow a sales tax to be levied by individual cities. I don't want it to happen necessarily because it is a regressive tax, but it's what other cities do and we need that option.
My radical take would be to make the Lodge our first trasit route. Rerouting traffic to the 96 via the Southfield Freeway and 75 via 696 would give us a viable path to make the Lodge either a subway or a separated rail, connecting Downtown and Southfield
Look to 2024 [[2022 if we're lucky).
Nothing will happen until
1. Train unanimous poison pills are removed.
2. County specific plans that were propposed but voted down in the original bill language is restored.
That won't happen until the obstructionist party propped up by gerrymandering is slain.
The most recent state amendment already took care of that from 2020 onward.
The new Secretary of State might be helping that a couple of years early.
I don't think it is inevitable that Detroit gets a mass transit system. But I do think it is inevitable that the Detroit area will continue to decline if it does not get its act together and start investing in transit infrastructure.
That is going to happen around the same time you look up and see flying pigs.Quote:
Originally Posted by JonWylie
The Mass Transit people would have to get lobbyist in Lansing. As long as General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler also other entities who are affiliated with the automobile have the politicians in their back pocket nothing will be done to have Mass Transit or reliable mass transit in Southeastern Michigan. The Greenway project have stronger lobbyist in Lansing to have these bike lanes installed in some of the most unnecessary places such as on Cass or Jefferson. Bicycles are not a greater threat to the automobile than alternative transportation is. I am a bicyclist myself and I don't agree with some of these bike lane installations. I would love to see more rapid busses with their own lanes and traffic lights and I would love to see more sparsely traveled streets dedicated to busses and autocars
I'm well aware that it's going to take a lot of extreme actions to restore a mass transit system to metro Detroit.
Of course if there's any top reasons that this area needs it:
Highest auto insurance in the nation.
That is the top one.
Also remember, that every year, there will be a pothole on those roads. Tax money goes both ways, from transit to putting salt on those icy roads and freeways.
We all have to pay for those. Whether we have cars, or not.
Ironically, the section of the Lodge Freeway from Wyoming Avenue to 8 Mile was originally a 200-foot wide street with a median in the middle. Completed in the 1930's, the street was called James Couzens Parkway and its wide median was intended for a rapid transit line, as was the medians of Woodward, Gratiot, Fort, etc.Quote:
Originally Posted by JonWylie
There was a thread about James Couzens Parkway 5 years ago. A photo of the original Parkway is shown in post #16
https://www.detroityes.com/mb/showth...Couzen-Highway
How hard would it be to mount a campaign to get the constitution changed to allow local sales tax? Would any forumers be interested in helping lead such an effort.
Speaking of James Couzens, somewhat off-topic, but I saw a picture of the proposed subway system from 1918.
The City Council approved the plan [[had funding and everything in place for construction), but Couzens vetoed it. City Council's attempt to overrule his veto then fell one vote short.
Just imagine how much different the city would be today had that plan been approved...
https://i.redd.it/xzqbw7znkhc21.png
It should not be hard at all if there wasn't lobbyist blocking the process just to keep Michigan car dependent. Each elected official should be transparent to who are funding their campaigns. If their campaigns are funded by corporations especially the Big 3, Insurance Companies, and probably the oil companies then you will know who's tunes that the elected officials will dance to. Many of these road were repaved with cheap asphalt material that usually break up after the first winter. That's another racket. Look how torn Gratiot is after 13 years of having concrete laid on it instead of asphalt. Too many companies are getting over the Michigan taxpayers. Mass transit need a lobbyist or a group of supporters in Lansing to make Mass Transit a serious issue in Michigan such as the cyclist lobbied to have bike lanes installedQuote:
Originally Posted by masterblaster
It's not declining so...Quote:
Originally Posted by iheartthed
It comes down to the big leaders. Brooks is on his way out the future looks bright.
Only one thing needs to happen for Detroit to finally begin working on a mass transit system: millennials need to take power from baby boomers and gen X.
Study after study will show you that millennials have less interest in owning cars than their parents or grandparents. They want to live in vibrant, dense, diverse communities, not suburban and exurban sprawl. They understand man-made climate change is a real thing that will have an effect in their lifetime. One needs to not look any further than who is driving the revitalization of downtown and other neighborhoods.
Of course, you will find exceptions to the above statements. Some millennials will still dream of their parents cul de sac and 3 car garage but they'll be in the minority.
So far, baby boomers have clung to their power well into their retirement years, but the day is coming when the old guard who would still like to see a wall on 8 mile will run out of time. That's when we will finally see comprehensive mass transit become a reality.
Get more money, spend more money
Tax more, spend more
Bigger government, more control, less individuality
Do it again, harder, harder.
Thank you SIR, may I have another!!!
Everything that was old is new again. It only failed because they didn't do it right, but we know better, we'll do it right this time.
Relative decline is decline. During my lifetime, Detroit's fallen from a top 5 metro to barely hanging on in the top 20. I'm in my mid 30s.Quote:
Originally Posted by Worldsgreatest
Metro Detroit is currently the 14th largest metro in the US, and while that's a significant relative decline from its top 5 position a few decades ago, I wouldn't describe it as "barely hanging on in the top 20." Only Seattle and Minneapolis are likely to surpass it by 2030, and even then, it will still be the 16th largest metro area.
My issue is that, it seems, most people want to start throwing rail all over the place, and the metro Detroit region has yet to prove it can manage to run an integrated bus system properly. Let's see DDOT and SMART get together, run a proper bus system into the neighborhoods and suburbs, THEN start talking about rail.
That being said, we need to get the regional bus system running properly. It's a mess as it stands.
People can walk and chew gum at the same time. It shouldn't be either/or.Quote:
Originally Posted by JBMcB
At this rate, Metro Detroit will be out of the top 20 by 2040.Quote:
Originally Posted by 313WX
Mass transit would be great, but only if properly planned, managed, and maintained. It'll be interesting to see if self driving vehicles advance enough in twenty years to have some impact.
A 2016 analysis by the US Conference of Mayors still has Detroit as the 16th largest metro by then, even if it loses another 100,000 people. Even by their projection, it wouldn't fall out of the top 20 until 2050 at the earliest.Quote:
Originally Posted by iheartthed
2040 and especially 2050 is a long ways out. Anything can happen between now and then. No one thought Atlanta, Dallas or Houston would be exploding like they are now 30 years ago.
Those regions have actually had pretty consistent growth rate for the past 70 years. Metro Detroit would need to actually grow in population to stay in the top 20 by 2040, but it hasn't really grown since the 1960s. Barring some unforeseen catastrophe in the Sun Belt, if Metro Detroit does not start growing it has a very good chance of dropping out by then. It will certainly happen by 2050 at this rate.Quote:
Originally Posted by 313WX
True, they were growing before then, but they didn't begin seeing the exponential growth they're witnessing now [[as in growing at a rate that allowed them to surpass the legacy major metros) until the 90s.Quote:
Originally Posted by iheartthed
And it's not just them. Also see Seattle. Prior to Amazon and Microsoft, it also had relatively slow/flat growth and were virtually irrelevant.
So you never know what the future could bring for Detroit between now and 2040/2050.
Yes, both Seattle and SF had flat growth until recently. My point is that Detroit will need to grow in order maintain position.Quote:
Originally Posted by 313WX
Absolutely. And there could be any number of circumstances/scenarios to allow for that to happen over the next 20-30 years.Quote:
Originally Posted by iheartthed
But when I lived in Seattle 35 years ago [[!) King County had a highly coordinated bus based transit system that would allow you to go anywhere in the county by bus. I was a floating manager for a retail chain and I could get from Ballard to any store in the county by bus.
It's only been within the past 20 years tat Pierce [[County) Transit, King County Metro and Community Transit [[Snohomish County) began working together, and maybe 10 years that Sound Transit and Link Light Rail have made a true Metro system between the counties work.
In the "old" days, people who worked in King County tended to live there, and the same for Pierce and Snohomish Counties. The same can't be said for the Detroit Metro area, but it seems like the local governments in the area, both city and county, just can't get their minds around the fact that it is a metropolitan area and their world does not revolve completely around their own little fifedum.
Minneapolis is like 700,000 behind Detroit as of the 2010 census. Although the Twin Cities have experienced impressive growth for the midwest, I don't see them surpassing Detroit area in the next 20 years, that's if the area gets its head out of its azz and starts to experience moderate growth like a St. Louis or Philadelphia has been experiencing.Quote:
Originally Posted by 313WX
Seattle is a different story, it is a juggernaut right now that will likely be within 100,000 of Metro Detroit by 2020. I don't see Seattle slowing down due to its tech economy and the fascination with "Hiking, Outdoor activities, and beautiful scenery", but the limited land caused by the mountains and Puget Sound may slow its growth in the near future.
Detroit metro is currently ranked 14th. However, the government includes the Riverside-San Bernadino-Ontario area is its own metropolitan area that is more populous than Metro Detroit. IMHO, the Inland Empire is just Los Angeles sprawl
Later this week, I am going to trek up to TRU's offices [[the metro's no.1 transit advocacy organization) in TechTown and ask them their view on a regional sales tax for improving public transportation.
Minneapolis will almost definitely overtake Detroit not long after 2020. It is growing at quite a clip, even though Seattle is growing faster. Minneapolis has added 252,000 people between 2010 and 2017, Seattle has added 427,000 in that time, and Detroit has added about 17,000.Quote:
Originally Posted by masterblaster
At this rate, in 5 - 10 years Detroit will booted from its spot as the second largest metro in the Midwest for about the first time since the 19th century.
Within fifteen years, self driving vehicles might radically transform transportation. Uber has already transformed the taxi industry. Imagine Uber when a self driving vehicle shows up in your driveway. It could take passengers to destinations or to light rail, airports and other means of transformation. On demand self driving vehicles could displace both private car ownership and some local bus services. That attached garage could be turned into an extra room.
Highly doubt this, Detriot area is at around 5 million people. The most generous estimate for Minneapolis metro population is around 3.6 million, with birthrates declining and US growth slowing this isn't going to happen.Quote:
Originally Posted by iheartthed
By measure of MSA, which is the most cited metric.Quote:
Originally Posted by Worldsgreatest
I'm sick of discussing this, so I've decided to limit my posts to actual developments of transit matters in SE Michigan.
HOWEVER, the Minneapolis discussion [[which I do believe they will surpass us probably by 2030 unless we change) goes to show you that weather means little in terms of economic development and it has everything to do with immigration, education, and normal city/metro functionality.
Yep. All of that and also plentiful high-paying jobs [[Minneapolis in a way is like a mini-Atlanta or Dallas, in terms of its diverse economy and wide assortment of big companies).Quote:
Originally Posted by dtowncitylover
You do have a point there. I read somewhere that 40% of Twin City city residents have a college degree! A very well-educated metro area and has been growing despite the frigid weather.Quote:
Originally Posted by dtowncitylover
And when you invest in mass transit, the need for a car 100% of the time decreases thus making living in the frozen north more bearable.Quote:
Originally Posted by masterblaster
In this we are in complete agreement.Quote:
Originally Posted by dtowncitylover
People in Michigan love their F...ing excuses way to much.
Weather is just a weak excuse. Overcome it. They could a hundred years ago here.
On the topic of transit, one of the significant issues that gets overlooked is our regional leaders [[of those who do back transit) have a history of backing poor transit design/projects.
There is always improvements that can be made to the bus system, which does go a long way to help the lower income folks. But bus system improvements rarely get mentioned because buses are not sexy.
Rail is sexy, but we keep backing rail projects that will never help the region reach its potential. And of course there are many on here and in planning circles who have never seen a transit proposal they didn’t like.. but it seems like the transit choices backed by regional leaders are more for show than to solve a real problem.
I was actually glad to see the commuter rail between AA and Detroit not get built, even though I love transit and what it can do. The problem is commuter rail between AA and Detroit is an awful place to start, and yes you have to start somewhere... but it has to be somewhere good. Else the criticism will prevent another transit project from getting built for a generation.
What is wrong with the commuter rail for Ann Arbor to Detroit. It will bring workers from Ann Arbor/Ypsilanti and Western Wayne County to downtown Detroit for work and workers from Detroit and Western Wayne County to Ann Arbor. It should also be extended to Metro Airport.Quote:
Originally Posted by Atticus
Agreed. Detroit to Ann Arbor makes a ton of sense for a commuter line, if for no other reason than it can connect both places directly to the airport. But connecting Ann Arbor to Detroit would be really good too.Quote:
Originally Posted by masterblaster
1) The issue is the plan does not connect it to DTW, and logistically the track location makes a connection to DTW not possible. Thus it would either be a train from Detroit to Ann Arbor, or a train from Detroit to DTW, but not both. Yes it would be nice if it could be both, but short of eminent domain and hundreds of millions of dollars in a new track line, it is not possible to be both. So both ain’t happening.Quote:
Originally Posted by iheartthed
2) The drop off point in Detroit is at New Center, which is too far from downtown for daily commuters. If the overall trip takes too long to get downtown, which the commuter rail proposal does because there is no downtown station, middle and high income folks won’t take it because they value their time too much. And then you get into the death spiral situation where only low income riders use it, and then others don’t even want to use it because only low income users ride it.
The New Center location works ok at best for Amtrak, but that is only because the vast majority of people using Amtrak aren’t riding Amtrak on a daily basis. If you are going from Westland to Detroit everyday, the user cost to make the trip in from New Center to downtown makes it not worth it. If you are coming in a few times a year on a multi hour Amtrak trip from Chicago, the user cost of making that New Center to Downtown trip is less because it is a one or two time event.
My overall point is, if you aren’t going to build it right, don’t build it at all. And this commuter rail proposal would be a poorly thought out plan that people wouldn’t use. I am not against commuter rail as a concept, but I am against the proposed Det-AA commuter rail as currently envisioned. If you are going to have commuter rail, you need a downtown station because that is where commuters go. And since a downtown station probably isn’t possible, than as a result, a viable commuter rail route probably isn’t possible either.
Thanks for clarification. As an inaugural line, I still don't think Ann Arbor to Detroit is a bad idea. They could use a shuttle from the airport to the planned stop in Wayne as a demonstration for demand for a line directly to the airport. I just looked at the map and see that there are tracks that do already go to the airport. I'm guessing this is the same line that Toledo is funding a study to implement a commuter line?Quote:
Originally Posted by Atticus
I don't think these are issues. First, it's already very easy to get from New Center to downtown on public transit. I would much rather catch a commuter train from Ann Arbor to New Center, and then take the QLine downtown, than to drive that commute during rush hour. Second, New Center is actually a jobs center itself, even though it isn't the primary one.Quote:
Originally Posted by Atticus
I don't think people get what Ford and GM are up to right now. It sounds nice to invest in a huge classic bus/rail public transit system and 10 years ago I would have totally agreed. But why invest that kind of public money when ride share technology is being developed, driverless is being developed, zero emissions vehicles are being developed, etc. The Detroit metro area may become the proving ground for a completely new system of urban transportation.Quote:
Originally Posted by oladub
Think about it. Roads get clogged in all major cities, yet are they overcapacity? Yes and no. How many empty seats are being driven over our road infrastructure every day? There is tremendous capacity available if we can better utilize it.
By the year 2030, my hope is that GM and Ford will have deployed an integrated system of driverless ride-share zero-emission shuttles throughout the Metro area. There will be private run, for profit versions owned and operated by GM and Ford, as well as a publicly subsidized version to provide accessible transit services for all Southeast Michigan.
The "for profit" model will have two modes. One will be "on-call" which will be a per ride or monthly bill per mile. This will target what Uber has now. There will also be a subscription "work shuttle" mode where a regular daily "smart route" is built, 8-15 passengers transported from a localized neighborhood to their work locations.
There will also be neighborhood transportation hubs which will serve a couple of functions.
1) Serve as the hubs for the subsidized public transit model with low cost, frequent pre-determined shuttle routes, as well as slightly more expensive smart routes that are built as commuters submit their destinations into the integrated system. GM, Ford, and FCA will all be asked to participate.
2) Short-term and long term vehicle rental. People will still go on trips, or need to get building materials, appliances, big stuff. This is where you'll rent your F-150 or Chevy Traverse or whatever by the hour, day, week, whatever.
Unfortunately, Southeast Michigan is built and we can't start over, tear it down, redensify [[is that a word?), and build it around a mass transit system. There are only 6 American cities that are well serviced with rail transit: New York, Chicago, Washington, Boston, San Francisco, and Philadelphia. Far more cities are closer to Detroit than New York for public transit utilization. If the GM and Ford successfully develop and deploy these fully integrated transportation systems, they could work far better for far more people than all the trains and bus routes ever could, and not just in the United States.
I have a dumb question here......
Has anyone actually drawn a map of where people work within the past 30 years or so?
I seen to get the impression that transit options discussed here concern downtown commuting. Where do people actually have to go, and should we change our mass transit assumptions accoringly?
By 2020 you are hoping for driverless ride share shuttles throughout the metro area? Are you for real? Keep hoping [[or dreaming ) that isn't happening. If that happens in my life time I would be shocked.Quote:
Originally Posted by schulzte
Yeah, that was a typo. Meant 2030.Quote:
Originally Posted by softailrider
I don't see driver-less cars, shuttles, or buses running down city streets anytime before 2040, if ever. Remember flying cars? I would like to see one of two possible scenarios happen regarding mass transit. First, a subway system for Woodward Avenue to Pontiac is the ideal mass transit project Metro Detroit should consider. Get that running and you'll get a shift in people setting up residences along Woodward. The second choice would be to build a commuter rail from Oakland Mall, along I-75 to the GM RenCen. The room is there and if I-375 is to become a boulevard, then the rail line rides in the median or under it and Jefferson to GM RenCen. Gratiot would be the next subway line.
Actually the commuter rail could extend to Great Lakes Crossing. Ample parking there. With Oakland Mall shrinking, there would definitely be ample parking for commuters.