Dan Gilberts Retail Renaissance to include 70-90 retailers, including Target & Apple

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Originally Posted by warsaw7

Finally a realist! I don't mean to crash the party, but isn't there this teeny tiny rumor floating around that Detroit may enter bankruptcy? Not to mention another year of high murders? Why would any major corporations want to invest in a city that cannot even function without the help of the state?

I think that Mr. Gilbert has great intentions and I would truly love to see these "dreams" become a "reality." But I just don't see it happening until the city comes together and starts working together to eliminate the crime, the corruption and the lack of leadership that has plagued this city for years. Godspeed Detroit.

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the problems of detroit havent stopped gilbert from buying up properties left and right and investing money. dont you think he has a bit more at stake than a retailer renting a space from someone else? does a detroit bankruptcy effect the foot traffic of downtown retailers in some way that i dont understand.

in regards to the "dreams" comment did you see gilbert's investment coming five years ago? a lot can change in a short time and i wouldnt put anything past gilbert and what he wants to accomplish.

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Originally Posted by warsaw7

Finally a realist! I don't mean to crash the party, but isn't there this teeny tiny rumor floating around that Detroit may enter bankruptcy? Not to mention another year of high murders? Why would any major corporations want to invest in a city that cannot even function without the help of the state?

I think that Mr. Gilbert has great intentions and I would truly love to see these "dreams" become a "reality." But I just don't see it happening until the city comes together and starts working together to eliminate the crime, the corruption and the lack of leadership that has plagued this city for years. Godspeed Detroit.

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Some good points here for sure but I think what Mr. Gilbert and the other big players are doing will help to address and reduce some of these issues down the future,, Many on here seem to automatically throw the "bankruptcy" issue as a major downer issue for the cities comeback,, If one studies economic effect, often this is the exact event that helps a entity or city,, rebound,, In Detroits case, while it will be painful,, I think it could be a very good thing after a initial burning period. If Detroit goes bankrupt, you will not see the likes of Gilbert, Illitch, Karmonos,, Henry Ford, DMC, etc fleeing.. All of these entities are investing big time,, they are not stupid.. We also have the casinos, the arts venues, pro sports etc. The major crime issues will unfortunately be more delegated to the neighborhoods , which is basically is what is happening now. We did not have much of this even 10 years ago, now we do.. I think they are participating actively in a turn around and are not relying on the city to do it,, They are.. Its happening, downtown and midtown as we speak,, Go see for yourself..The city is not doing alot to assist other than some taxbreaks. the neighborhoods are another story .. Quite frankly, thats the way this is going to happen. These investors are not investing this big to lose money. I think in fairly short time your going to have a very viable downtown /midtown and poor neighborhoods, Not the best scenario but certainly better than the alternative. I dont think Detroit as a whole will ever rid itself of its major issues but it is becoming a city which is becoming much more user friendly to work,, socialize and in some areas live.

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Originally Posted by DetBill

If one studies economic effect, often this is the exact event that helps a entity or city,, rebound

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Can you provide some examples of municipal bankruptcies leading to an economic turnaround?

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Originally Posted by DetBill

Some good points here for sure but I think what Mr. Gilbert and the other big players are doing will help to address and reduce some of these issues down the future,, Many on here seem to automatically throw the "bankruptcy" issue as a major downer issue for the cities comeback,, If one studies economic effect, often this is the exact event that helps a entity or city,, rebound,, In Detroits case, while it will be painful,, I think it could be a very good thing after a initial burning period. If Detroit goes bankrupt, you will not see the likes of Gilbert, Illitch, Karmonos,, Henry Ford, DMC, etc fleeing.. All of these entities are investing big time,, they are not stupid.. We also have the casinos, the arts venues, pro sports etc. The major crime issues will unfortunately be more delegated to the neighborhoods , which is basically is what is happening now. We did not have much of this even 10 years ago, now we do.. I think they are participating actively in a turn around and are not relying on the city to do it,, They are.. Its happening, downtown and midtown as we speak,, Go see for yourself..The city is not doing alot to assist other than some taxbreaks. the neighborhoods are another story .. Quite frankly, thats the way this is going to happen. These investors are not investing this big to lose money. I think in fairly short time your going to have a very viable downtown /midtown and poor neighborhoods, Not the best scenario but certainly better than the alternative. I dont think Detroit as a whole will ever rid itself of its major issues but it is becoming a city which is becoming much more user friendly to work,, socialize and in some areas live.

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Do you actually think people are going to hang around and keep paying taxes in these "poor neighborhoods" like Boston Edison, Indian Village, Gold Coast. etc. so you can live in Bohemia and drink $10 latte's? Either these neighborhoods start getting the City services they pay a pretty penny for, or they're going to leave. [[you know "abandon" the City). With more tax base gone, your services are going to start suffering too. Pretty soon your rosy glasses are going to get a bit foggy.

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Originally Posted by DTFellow

While I understand your skepticism, I’m not entirely sure that shrinkage is / will be as big a problem downtown / Midtown as it may be elsewhere in the city.

For one, most of these shops will probably be patrolled pretty consistently w/ security personnel, the same guys you see in Campus Martius, Renaissance Center, First National Building, etc. Mr. Gilbert has been consistently providing security services like these, and I don’t doubt he will again in any new venture.

Secondly, its highly likely that any retail establishment will have some kind of insurance to cover these losses, should they occur—especially the larger “chain” stores that it sounds like Mr. Gilbert is looking to attract.

Finally, these kinds of ventures, if put together in a larger context provide excellent marketing for both downtown business “look at all there is to do right by your office!”, potential new residential complexes, AND the businesses that actually go in [["We aren't greedy corporate overlords, look at us putting up a new store in Detroit, of all places!")

These last two factors don't specifically address the shrinkage problem, but they do mitigate the harmful effects on the bottom line. . .

All interested parties are going to want to make sure that this succeeds, even if only for marketing reasons.

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All interested parties blah blah blah! I have heard the exact same thing when the RenCen opened, when Trapper's alley opened and so on. Guess what none of them succeeded!
As for insurance who is going to pay outrageous rates as time goes on?? They will be paying extremely high rates to begin with and Detroit is a leader across the country in shrinkage.
I am on the other hand organizing a pool on the closure date for Whole Foods I will post it when they open. I have not decided on the prize for the correct date.

"I am on the other hand organizing a pool on the closure date for Whole Foods I will post it when they open. I have not decided on the prize for the correct date."

Twinkies?

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Originally Posted by Honky Tonk

"I am on the other hand organizing a pool on the closure date for Whole Foods I will post it when they open. I have not decided on the prize for the correct date."

Twinkies?

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CVS has Twinkies and Wonder Bread. Thx Honky Tonk a very good idea!

But couldn't business downtown act as their own isolated entity from Detroit's major problems? Bankrupt or not?

I mean it's not unusual for businesses located within a shopping district to form a business association with mandatory dues. Those dues cover everything from paying the city to hire additional police officers for their block, street light operation and maintenance, to new sidewalks and landscape maintenance. It's supplemental services on top of what the city already provides, but it guarantees their needs are met in terms of security and neighborhood appearance. Even residents of those shopping districts are responsible for those dues. Itemized on my rent is a $10 monthly association charge....not for my building, but the neighborhood. I guess if I didn't like that fee for extra security and maintenance I could move somewhere else. But when you think of Gilbert and other business leaders playing a central roll in organizing and attracting business to come downtown these extra costs may be well understood. He's clearly been a good ambassador for the city if these retailers get on board. He's delivered an attractive plan that the city government has failed at doing.

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Originally Posted by p69rrh51

All interested parties blah blah blah! I have heard the exact same thing when the RenCen opened, when Trapper's alley opened and so on. Guess what none of them succeeded!

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They didn't succeed because they opened during the nadir of Detroit. The shops at the RenCen sucked whatever business there was left along Woodward and then failed because the building was a monstrous cave. You have alot more people coming and living downtown today than you did 20 to 30 years ago when there were still shops at the RenCen and there was still a Trapper's Alley. I bet Trapper's Alley would do very well today.

While it is odd to say, I think Detroit can go only get better. While the 90s had little talk of bankruptcy or emergency managers, it never had the exposure and never had the activity. If you worked down there you picked up and left at 5. Now you can stay and the family can come down to go skating, sports, restaurants, shows, stay at the casinos, etc. And maybe one day shopping.

They're not throwing the Whole Foods at 7 and Gratiot. You have to look at the neighborhoods the stores are going into and not the city as a whole. Downtown has experienced job growth and a shortage of housing. It has the potential to support more retail.

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Originally Posted by wolverine

But couldn't business downtown act as their own isolated entity from Detroit's major problems? Bankrupt or not?

I mean it's not unusual for businesses located within a shopping district to form a business association with mandatory dues. Those dues cover everything from paying the city to hire additional police officers for their block, street light operation and maintenance, to new sidewalks and landscape maintenance. It's supplemental services on top of what the city already provides, but it guarantees their needs are met in terms of security and neighborhood appearance. Even residents of those shopping districts are responsible for those dues. Itemized on my rent is a $10 monthly association charge....not for my building, but the neighborhood. I guess if I didn't like that fee for extra security and maintenance I could move somewhere else. But when you think of Gilbert and other business leaders playing a central roll in organizing and attracting business to come downtown these extra costs may be well understood. He's clearly been a good ambassador for the city if these retailers get on board. He's delivered an attractive plan that the city government has failed at doing.

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I really hope Mudtown is successful and this is finally the TRUE beginning of the "New Detroit", but there's a certain elitist, coupled with a screw the rest of Detroit attitude about the area that rubs me the wrong way. Before we get too carried away with Dapper Dan, remember, he's not in charge, and the City fathers are capable of pulling the rug out from under him like they've done with others in the past.

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Originally Posted by Honky Tonk

Do you actually think people are going to hang around and keep paying taxes in these "poor neighborhoods" like Boston Edison, Indian Village, Gold Coast. etc. so you can live in Bohemia and drink $10 latte's? Either these neighborhoods start getting the City services they pay a pretty penny for, or they're going to leave. [[you know "abandon" the City). With more tax base gone, your services are going to start suffering too. Pretty soon your rosy glasses are going to get a bit foggy.

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Exactly, look at what has happened in the last ten years in neighborhoods like Warrendale, EEV, Franklin Park, and Old Redford. Communities full of tax paying homeowners have left.

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Originally Posted by dtowncitylover

They didn't succeed because they opened during the nadir of Detroit. The shops at the RenCen sucked whatever business there was left along Woodward and then failed because the building was a monstrous cave. You have alot more people coming and living downtown today than you did 20 to 30 years ago when there were still shops at the RenCen and there was still a Trapper's Alley. I bet Trapper's Alley would do very well today.

While it is odd to say, I think Detroit can go only get better. While the 90s had little talk of bankruptcy or emergency managers, it never had the exposure and never had the activity. If you worked down there you picked up and left at 5. Now you can stay and the family can come down to go skating, sports, restaurants, shows, stay at the casinos, etc. And maybe one day shopping.

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Interesting because they failed when Detroit's population was larger[[and also much weathier) and a few thousand residents in or near downtown are NOT enough to make the difference.
So how does fewer residents city wide, looming financial meltdown, a useless police force, a fire department stressed beyond the breaking point, and govt. incapable of making even the most rudimentary decisions help them succeed now? Please give me an actual good reason not the usual boring party line!
In all this I hope the city does improve but I give a 5% ish chance.

IMHO...

Detroit will go bankrupt. It may be a managed bankruptcy or a long, drawn out stalemate that bloodies all the parties.

The city will become even more divided between those who are relying on city services and those who aren't.

The biggest difference between the 90s and now are these:

[[1) The price points are ridiculously low. You think taxes are high? Well, they are. But when you're buying a house for 25-50% off [[or more) what you're getting in the suburbs -- at a 3% mortgage rate -- you're not gonna care that much.

[[2) Capitalists and people with access to capital are moving back into the city. That's huge. Because they know how to see and create economic value. Take my parents. Their annual income is not much different than mine. They saw decline in their East English Village neighborhood...moved to Macomb. Where they see our city in decline, I see the absurdly low entry points and amazing values in Woodbridge, Corktown, and more. The entire downtown and adjoining neighborhoods are sheltered [[though not immune) from so many of Detroit's problem because of outside economic support and efficient use of space.

For example, how many residents live in Broderick Tower, City Apartments, and the Kales building? Now how many cops need to patrol that area? Not many. Wayne State has its own economy that is subsidized by suburbanites and out of state grad students. They contract out DPD and will continue to do so....they're also immune to most issues regarding property tax levels.

So even if you don't have your own private security, if you live between two wealthy neighbors that have their own private security...you probably aren't going to have as many problems as if you live on a block with blighted houses and gang violence.

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Is the city going to improve? Yes. No. And not uniformly. But think about it...when you're living on the 26th floor of Broderick Tower, how much are you really worried about police response times and scrappers?

The city will suffer, and especially the poor. And while this is all happening, you're going to see a giant uptick in quality of life in the parts of the city with the educated class and where regional governance kicks in. In many ways, it will be a microcosm of what's been happening in this nation's economy for the last 10-20 years.

For some this is bad news, for others it is bittersweet. But what's clear is that there are going to be diverging experiences for the citizens in the city.

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Originally Posted by p69rrh51

Interesting because they failed when Detroit's population was larger[[and also much weathier) and a few thousand residents in or near downtown are NOT enough to make the difference.
So how does fewer residents city wide, looming financial meltdown, a useless police force, a fire department stressed beyond the breaking point, and govt. incapable of making even the most rudimentary decisions help them succeed now? Please give me an actual good reason not the usual boring party line!
In all this I hope the city does improve but I give a 5% ish chance.

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Most of the issues you cite are basically irrelevant to downtown retail; they don't help, but they don't hurt much, if at all, either. What retail businesses need is people with some spendable income around. There seem to be more of those people around downtown than there have been in quite a while, both visitors and residents. Are there enough to support 70-90 retailers as of now? I very much doubt it, just having a Target would probably soak up an awful lot of the potential demand. Could there be more retail than there is now? I think probably, and you certainly could get into a virtuous circle, where a retail cluster create more demand and builds upon itself, but I think you need quite a few more downtown residents first before you are going to get to critical mass.

And no, that isn't going to be of huge benefit to the rest of the city--maybe provide some accessible jobs and shopping, but it isn't going repopulate the east side or anything.

Gilbert's plan is not brand new, he has already stated his intentions. The chains that were mentioned will not open until there is enough of the population to support them. It will all come in due time.

As for the posters who think they are business people and think they know what they are talking about, I will place my bets with the consummate businessman/billionaire.

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Originally Posted by mwilbert

Most of the issues you cite are basically irrelevant to downtown retail; they don't help, but they don't hurt much, if at all, either. What retail businesses need is people with some spendable income around. There seem to be more of those people around downtown than there have been in quite a while, both visitors and residents. Are there enough to support 70-90 retailers as of now? I very much doubt it, just having a Target would probably soak up an awful lot of the potential demand. Could there be more retail than there is now? I think probably, and you certainly could get into a virtuous circle, where a retail cluster create more demand and builds upon itself, but I think you need quite a few more downtown residents first before you are going to get to critical mass.

And no, that isn't going to be of huge benefit to the rest of the city--maybe provide some accessible jobs and shopping, but it isn't going repopulate the east side or anything.

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What part of bad city services doesn't hurt? Why would anyone open a business that will not get the proper protection, both police and fire plus the other worthless city services, without paying extra when everything they want is less expensive outside the city? The business' that will open will get sweetheart deals and leave when the deal is up while paying little or no taxes and sucking up valuable resources-sounds like a really good deal for the city.
What do the retailers do when all the childless residents there now move out when they have children? I would bet the farm the current residents all leave when its time to send their children to school and don't give me the private school bullshit most of private schools[[what is left of them) in the city suck and the hassle of driving to the burbs along with the tuition will have almost all of them leaving once their oldest child turns 4.
Much more is needed than a few people moving into the city will revive downtown retail!
Like I said earlier I hope they can build on the momentum but I have my doubts! 5 years and out for all of them!

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Originally Posted by rjlj

Gilbert's plan is not brand new, he has already stated his intentions. The chains that were mentioned will not open until there is enough of the population to support them. It will all come in due time.

As for the posters who think they are business people and think they know what they are talking about, I will place my bets with the consummate businessman/billionaire.

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Looks like you do not now much about him! Do you research before you make that statement.

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Originally Posted by p69rrh51

Looks like you do not now much about him! Do you research before you make that statement.

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We don't know much about you, but you seem to want to persuade us to think this rumored plan that none of us know much about will fail.

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Originally Posted by corktownyuppie

IMHO...

Detroit will go bankrupt. It may be a managed bankruptcy or a long, drawn out stalemate that bloodies all the parties.

The city will become even more divided between those who are relying on city services and those who aren't.

The biggest difference between the 90s and now are these:

[[1) The price points are ridiculously low. You think taxes are high? Well, they are. But when you're buying a house for 25-50% off [[or more) what you're getting in the suburbs -- at a 3% mortgage rate -- you're not gonna care that much.

[[2) Capitalists and people with access to capital are moving back into the city. That's huge. Because they know how to see and create economic value. Take my parents. Their annual income is not much different than mine. They saw decline in their East English Village neighborhood...moved to Macomb. Where they see our city in decline, I see the absurdly low entry points and amazing values in Woodbridge, Corktown, and more. The entire downtown and adjoining neighborhoods are sheltered [[though not immune) from so many of Detroit's problem because of outside economic support and efficient use of space.

For example, how many residents live in Broderick Tower, City Apartments, and the Kales building? Now how many cops need to patrol that area? Not many. Wayne State has its own economy that is subsidized by suburbanites and out of state grad students. They contract out DPD and will continue to do so....they're also immune to most issues regarding property tax levels.

So even if you don't have your own private security, if you live between two wealthy neighbors that have their own private security...you probably aren't going to have as many problems as if you live on a block with blighted houses and gang violence.

=======

Is the city going to improve? Yes. No. And not uniformly. But think about it...when you're living on the 26th floor of Broderick Tower, how much are you really worried about police response times and scrappers?

The city will suffer, and especially the poor. And while this is all happening, you're going to see a giant uptick in quality of life in the parts of the city with the educated class and where regional governance kicks in. In many ways, it will be a microcosm of what's been happening in this nation's economy for the last 10-20 years.

For some this is bad news, for others it is bittersweet. But what's clear is that there are going to be diverging experiences for the citizens in the city.

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Very Lucid.

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Originally Posted by p69rrh51

What part of bad city services doesn't hurt? Why would anyone open a business that will not get the proper protection, both police and fire plus the other worthless city services, without paying extra when everything they want is less expensive outside the city? The business' that will open will get sweetheart deals and leave when the deal is up while paying little or no taxes and sucking up valuable resources-sounds like a really good deal for the city.

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This is something politically difficult to say, but it's worth considering. Certain people and businesses within the city don't rely on the city services as much as others. Most the downtown entertainment district in the city pays for their own security or they pay extra for DPD protection out of pocket.

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What do the retailers do when all the childless residents there now move out when they have children? I would bet the farm the current residents all leave when its time to send their children to school and don't give me the private school bullshit most of private schools[[what is left of them) in the city suck and the hassle of driving to the burbs along with the tuition will have almost all of them leaving once their oldest child turns 4.
Much more is needed than a few people moving into the city will revive downtown retail!
Like I said earlier I hope they can build on the momentum but I have my doubts! 5 years and out for all of them!

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Private schools in the city suck? Not sure what you're referring to.
But in most cities, as youngsters settle down and move off to the suburbs, they get replaced by...yes, other youngsters. Detroit is the only city where we haven't been doing it. Time to get started.

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Originally Posted by corktownyuppie

This is something politically difficult to say, but it's worth considering. Certain people and businesses within the city don't rely on the city services as much as others. Most the downtown entertainment district in the city pays for their own security or they pay extra for DPD protection out of pocket.



Private schools in the city suck? Not sure what you're referring to.
But in most cities, as youngsters settle down and move off to the suburbs, they get replaced by...yes, other youngsters. Detroit is the only city where we haven't been doing it. Time to get started.

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Whatever! Delusions will not help in this instance.

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Originally Posted by p69rrh51

Whatever! Delusions will not help in this instance.

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With all respect, "Whatever!" is not a very compelling argument. My family went through our entire schooling through private schooling in the city There are many in the business community who are actually somewhat excited by the bankruptcy. Not because things will be "pleasant" but because we can remove the cloud of uncertainty about what will happen next.

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Originally Posted by corktownyuppie

With all respect, "Whatever!" is not a very compelling argument. My family went through our entire schooling through private schooling in the city There are many in the business community who are actually somewhat excited by the bankruptcy. Not because things will be "pleasant" but because we can remove the cloud of uncertainty about what will happen next.

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True, CY can send his kids to Holy Trinity and Christo-Rey without shipping his kids anywhere. Its true there are fewer private schools in the City, but there are fewer schools in general. I'd feel better sending my kids to Christo-Rey or U of D than to some homogeneous suburban school where everyone parents looked alike and made similar salaries.

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Originally Posted by p69rrh51

What part of bad city services doesn't hurt? Why would anyone open a business that will not get the proper protection, both police and fire plus the other worthless city services, without paying extra when everything they want is less expensive outside the city?

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Police services in downtown are pretty good. The downtown buildings aren't burning down and aren't likely to. Retailers don't use schools. Why would you think this would be important?

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What do the retailers do when all the childless residents there now move out when they have children? I would bet the farm the current residents all leave when its time to send their children to school and don't give me the private school bullshit most of private schools[[what is left of them) in the city suck and the hassle of driving to the burbs along with the tuition will have almost all of them leaving once their oldest child turns 4.

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Presumably if the current residents move out [[remembering that only about half of households ever have children) other people will move in. The last people Detroit is likely to be attractive to are families with school-age children, but that's just not the target audience for downtown living.