isnt that more relevant though in markets like new york or chicago? he's buying these properties at rock bottom prices, so isn't the risk almost nothing?
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No. There's no natural law that says the prices he's in at are "rock-bottom". Plenty of folk have thought that, only to find a much lower bottom exists beneath rock-bottom. There's always risk and the most you can lose on any real estate investment is 100%. That said, I think his upside is larger than his downside.
What gives me pause however is that he is the only one buying at this pace in Detroit. There are other very astute investors out there, in Detroit, nationally and internationally and plenty of money to buy Detroit-priced properties. Yet no one else sees what Gilbert sees. None even seem to want to ride his coattails and pick up a building or two. That ought to make everyone stop and think about his plan, for there's no other major city I'm aware of where there's really only one buyer for central city real estate. Other cities have dozens or hundreds. We'd like to think he's a visionary genius but its possible he's not.
Unfortunately I'd say this is pretty accurate. Like I mentioned before, my fiances sister works at Quicken, and she's had to cancel plans numerous times because of work. But I'm talking about 8, 9, 10pm. She easily works 60 hours a week, plus she will go in on weekends to catch up or prepare for the next week. I've heard it's typical for that type of schedule there for the first year or so, then once you've become established it slows down a bit and it's more of a 7-5 routine. I'm not sure how someone even has a social life or family working 60-80 hours a week. I'm 27 and I'd be exhausted.
I think you are right to think that his singular status is a concern. However, what I think is he is trying to be in a position to basically make downtown into what he wants it to be. No one else can be in that position, because at a minimum they would have to deal with Gilbert. I would say it is still a gamble, but if you start seeing a significant number of other buyers, you will know that Gilbert has won.Quote:
Originally Posted by Det_ard
Does anyone else think Bedrock/Gilbert will bundle his properties into a REIT and issue an IPO? Given the low initial investment and growth potential, it seems like a viable option and the timing is ripe. I worked with a company that partnered with Same Zell on an apartment REIT many years ago. The principles and LLPs did very well.
I understand where you're coming from Gannon and respect your insight. I can see where you find his overall operations suspect. I think I just hit the wall last night with negativity from so many threads and thought about where all this was going. It's hard for an outsider to understand why everyone is so negative here when it's so tough just about everywhere else. It really is. Unless you're part of the top percentage in this country. I guess I just see people in other places engaged in this downturn scenario dealing with it in different ways.
Cheers, O.G.
I dont think Gilbert is a mirage, and I dont think he is a guru either. He just happens to be a good luck charm on Detroit in that his intentions are to restore a great city's commercial functions. He seems to be acting singlehandedly but I suspect the announcements we read about suburban based offices relocating to downtown have been in the pipeline for a long time. Gilbert probably consorted with business allies before these advertizing, architecture and construction firms decided to pull roots and move in on Detroit. There is some deeper level of orchestration there.
Did Glibert brough the Vinton Building, YES HE DID! It's a done deal after March 24th. He plans to fill it up with business and retail. Gilberttown Detroit is the place to be for new regional business growth.
What would Mayor Coleman Young say if Dan Gilbert was buying up most of the Downtown Detroit buildings in 1975:
"Can that white Mother ----- businessman just buy 5 buildings. I'm trying to get other black businesses to have the piece of the pie."