Official 2020 Census Count will be released in March. Any guesses?

I recall our 2010 official census count was national news in March 2011. Dave Bing was mayor, the New York Times headline was “Detroit Census Confirms a Desertion Like No Other” after we lost 25% of the population from 2000 to 2010. The estimates leading up to the 2010 official count proved to be wildly inaccurate [[off by over 100k) and I’m bracing for the same this time.

Current estimate is 670k.

My guess: I think the 2020 official count will be 500k-550k.

https://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/23/us/23detroit.html

Duggan and Tlaib signaling they’ll “challenge” the official number suggests we’re not going to be getting good news in March.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/ne...nt/6053740002/

That's nice.

The state total will likely be over 10 million... :)

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Originally Posted by Gistok

That's nice.

The state total will likely be over 10 million... :)

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The papers said last week we’re going to lose a congressional seat just based off the [[historically conservative) population estimate.

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Originally Posted by motorcity

Duggan and Tlaib signaling they’ll “challenge” the official number suggests we’re not going to be getting good news in March.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/ne...nt/6053740002/

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I don't see it so negatively. According to the article, Duggan is saying that the population of Detroit has "increased significantly" since 2010, and wants to get out ahead of an undercount. While I personally doubt the population has increased at all, I think whatever population loss there is [[and has been estimated over the past decade) is a significantly lower percentage than the past several decades.

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Originally Posted by motorcity

I recall our 2010 official census count was national news in March 2011. Dave Bing was mayor, the New York Times headline “Detroit Census Confirms a Desertion Like No Other” after we lost 25% of the population from 2000 to 2010. The estimates leading up to the official count proved to be wildly inaccurate [[off by over 100k) and I’m bracing for the same this time. Current estimate is 670k.

I think the 2020 official count will be 500k-550k.

https://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/23/us/23detroit.html

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I tend to agree, though it will be quite interesting to bump this post if that prediction is right.

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Originally Posted by bartocktoo

I don't see it so negatively. According to the article, Duggan is saying that the population of Detroit has "increased significantly" since 2010, and wants to get out ahead of an undercount. While I personally doubt the population has increased at all, I think whatever population loss there is [[and has been estimated over the past decade) is a significantly lower percentage than the past several decades.

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I don’t see anything aside from the downtown hype to suggest we’ve stabilized the losses. There was still dramatic bleeding after 2010 from the Great Recession, bankruptcy was 2013, all the foreclosures and cheap homes demolished, and now Corona emptying out the city since March 2020. It’s going to be a steep decline. I think it’s just a matter of how steep.

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Originally Posted by 313WX

I tend to agree, though it will be quite interesting to bump this post if that prediction is right.

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Does that worry you? If it really is that low, how can that even be spun? It’s going to be a huge national story, again, making the city [[and region) look hopeless. And all of the hype over the last decade looks silly.

Simple:

I'm looking at top twelve Metro Detroit areas by demographics:

1. Royal Oak TWP. [[The R.O.T.): 92% Black, 5% White
2. Highland Park: 88% Black, 4% White.
3. Southfield: 80% Black, 18% White and other
4. Detroit: 76% Black, 15% White, 8% Hispanic
5. Inkster: 70% black 21% white, 6% Arab Muslim
6. Harper Woods: 62% Black, 29% White
7. Oak Park: 58% Black, 35%, White and other
8. Eastpointe: 50% Black, 44%, White, 2%Hispanic
9. River Rouge: 49% Black, 37% White, 18% Hispanic
10. Pontiac: 48% Black, 38% White, 19% Hispanic
11. Ecorse: 44% Black, 35% White, 18% Hispanic
12. Redford TWP: 47% Black 38%, White and the other


The population of Detroit will not be bright, about 640,000 people. However its single white population will increase to about 115,000. And Blacks are still slowly moving out.

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Originally Posted by motorcity

Does that worry you? If it really is that low, how can that even be spun? It’s going to be a huge national story, again, making the city [[and region) look hopeless. And all of the hype over the last decade looks silly.

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I mean, it is what it is.

Some folks though are setting themselves up for the same disappointment that they had in 2010.

I'm guessing there will be a concerted effort for a do-over. The Don was very aggressive in curtailing the count. Some postulate that it was to limit counting in some areas with the specific intent of altering seats.

"Information indicated Detroit was behind the rest of the state. Now, magically, it's all 100%. It's amazing how that happened as soon as the court ruling determined it was all concluded," Duggan said. "The truth of the matter is, they started later in Detroit, understaffed Detroit and shut it down early for one reason: there appears to be a national strategy to undercount cities.

Lol, interesting similarities,on one hand there seems to be a national strategy to undercount cities and on the other there seems to be a national strategy to overcount cities.

Nothing to see here move along.Why would there even be a question of challenging anything,they said it was concluded why waste taxpayers money and continue with conspiracy theories.

I am sure there are 17 intelligence agencies out there that will agree.

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Originally Posted by Danny

Simple:

The population of Detroit will not be bright, about 640,000 people. However its single white population will increase to about 115,000. And Blacks are still slowly moving out.

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I agree mostly with this and I don't believe the doomsday talk to be accurate. Detroit's population will be around 625k to 650k. And the white population will be higher in many places around the city.

BTW the census bureau is a very independent institution and if Trump could force them to do anything he would have gotten the apportionment numbers by Dec 31

Looking into whether Michigan would gain or lose representation based on whether or not illegal non-citizens were included in census results I came up with this:

"11 [[states) would gain or lose seats based on population change alone, whether unauthorized immigrants are included or excluded. Five states would gain one seat each: Arizona, Colorado, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon. Six states would lose one seat each: Illinois, MICHIGAN, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and West Virginia."

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Originally Posted by motorcity

Duggan and Tlaib signaling they’ll “challenge” the official number suggests we’re not going to be getting good news in March.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/ne...nt/6053740002/

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If Talibans lips are moving she is spewing crap!

Nobody wants to admit that the city is one the hardest to count and therefore severely under counted. Because it would go against the narrative.

It was under counted in 2010 and it'll no doubt be under counted now.

There will obviously be a loss but the vast majority of it will be fallout from the great recession which is not at all a reflection of the city today. With the major investments and new jobs we've seen coming to the city these census numbers do not really paint the same picture anymore, the city is undeniably in a better position than it was ten years ago, almost a 180 change.

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Originally Posted by Wheels

If Talibans lips are moving she is spewing crap!

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How dare she advocate for accurate representation of her constituents! Urgh so awful.

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Originally Posted by Satiricalivory

Nobody wants to admit that the city is one the hardest to count and therefore severely under counted. Because it would go against the narrative.

It was under counted in 2010 and it'll no doubt be under counted now.

There will obviously be a loss but the vast majority of it will be fallout from the great recession which is not at all a reflection of the city today. With the major investments and new jobs we've seen coming to the city these census numbers do not really paint the same picture anymore, the city is undeniably in a better position than it was ten years ago, almost a 180 change.

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I never filled out the census form where I am at,but when the census worker came by I gave her the information.

I asked her what kind of response she was getting,she figured 95% of the doors she knocked on nobody would come to the door,even though they were home and those that did the same percentage refused to provide any information.

This was during the Covid lockdowns so she had a captive audience,but it makes me really wonder how accurate that whole system really is.

My guess follows what so many demographers have been saying.

The entire country will be undercounted, and Michigan a little more. The pandemic, ICE raids [[very real and threatened), Trump's mandates to require respondents to indicate their citizenship status, exclude unauthorized residents, and end the count two weeks early will ensure that. The 2020 Census will especially undercount cities and other places where unauthorized residents and people with more fluid living arrangements tend to live.

We'll lose at least one House seat as a result.

This will also mean our State legislature will redistrict. The Republicans in charge will use the opportunity to take one from the Metro Detroit area, for two reasons: 1) we're where the population will be the most undercounted; 2) Republicans will gerrymander to further entrench their unfair advantage-- in both the US House and the State House. That's how even though the majority votes Democrat, Republicans have a big advantage and control the State legislature in the first place.

Rural States will be much less undercounted. Census workers can more easily chase down data from farmhouses where residents work at home than from cramped city apartments and other living quarters where young and poor people tend to live. The pandemic only amplifies the distortion; those with more privileged occupations are much more likely to work from home.

The US Senate already disproportionately empowers rural States. The 2020 census will increase their unfair advantage in the House of Representatives, and in State Houses too.

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Originally Posted by Richard

I never filled out the census form where I am at,but when the census worker came by I gave her the information.

I asked her what kind of response she was getting,she figured 95% of the doors she knocked on nobody would come to the door,even though they were home and those that did the same percentage refused to provide any information.

This was during the Covid lockdowns so she had a captive audience,but it makes me really wonder how accurate that whole system really is.

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So she figured that she counted 5% of 5%? Genuinely curious because I filled out mine this time and although I work with no one at home during the day, I have not seen anyone come by this time around whereas I did under the same circumstance in the 2010 Census.

I signed up to do the count. Took them several months to start calling people for this area. By then we were knee deep in this other mess and I no longer wanted to be bothered. They called me a couple of times in June or so but I never called them back. They must have been desperate for people because they called again in October I think. Still never called back and I haven't heard any more.

I still wonder if they'll try to pick up the count again due to some of the attempts to subvert the process.

Looks like enough of a decline to put this on the city council agenda:

Council President Pro Tem Mary Sheffield submitting memorandum relative to Requestfor Legislative Policy Division to prepare a report analyzing Detroit’s millage rate as itcompares to other large Michigan Municipalities and its ill-effects as it relates topopulation decline, property values, homeownership, tax foreclosures and blight.[[REFERRED TO THE BUDGET, FINANCE AND AUDIT STANDINGCOMMITTEE ON 01-06-21)

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Originally Posted by bust

This will also mean our State legislature will redistrict. The Republicans in charge will use the opportunity to take one from the Metro Detroit area, for two reasons: 1) we're where the population will be the most undercounted; 2) Republicans will gerrymander to further entrench their unfair advantage-- in both the US House and the State House. That's how even though the majority votes Democrat, Republicans have a big advantage and control the State legislature in the first place.

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The legislature no longer controls redistricting in Michigan.

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Originally Posted by mwilbert

The legislature no longer controls redistricting in Michigan.

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I agree, that measure was passed years ago.

Now for the population decline of Detroit and the tremendous growth of the suburbs. If Detroit population is way down to about 300,000, it's time for amalgamation for Detroit and it's suburbs to in order to stabilize our regional base.

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Originally Posted by mwilbert

The legislature no longer controls redistricting in Michigan.

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And even if they did, those redistricting bills would be subject to Whitmer's veto.

And back to how much Detroit might get undercounted: the self-response rate was lower than it was in 2010 but that is mostly due to massive demolitions that have not yet made it into the census bureau's database. If you look at neighborhoods that are staple and that haven't seen massive demolitions [[e.g. Northwest Detroit from the University District all the way to Rosedale Park) you can actually see higher response rates compared to 2010