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The results of the 9th Congressional district went against the national trend this last week. In a district that has historically been GOP, the Democrat incumbent [[Peters) beat back a Tea Party-styled challenger [[Raczkowski) in a year in which such challengers romped across most of the US. I find this really interesting but have not yet seen a good analysis of the election. Any ideas [[beyond ad hominem attacks) why this district bucked the national trend?
As this is my district, I'm just glad he did. However, I was surprised though.
That's an upper-middle class to wealthy moderate Republican district. Many of those voters trend slightly Republican almost entirely on fiscal issues, but are essentially independents - particularly with the heavy rightward shift of the Republican party in recent years. I would think that the Tea Party movement, with its implied radicalism, would have limited appeal to these voters.
The district is also not as Republican as it may appear. It went pretty strongly for Obama in 2008 [[Oakland County went 56% to 42% for Obama over McCain). And it's undergoing some demographic changes that are making it trend less Republican over time.
Since Peters is a moderate Democrat with a business and finance background, I would think that he would appeal to a significant number of independent voters in that district. Since he's only been in for one term, perhaps a number of voters felt that he really hadn't been given a chance yet.
Raczkowski also had some significant negatives. He ran a very right-wing campaign in the primary, including a sort of social/religious conservatism that's not all that popular with voters in this half of the state. There are questions about the practices of his western Michigan-based ticket selling business. And he's primarily remembered by many voters as the candidate who was swamped in a nasty and embarrassing statewide campaign against the popular [[very popular in Oakland County) Sen. Carl Levin back in 2002.
So even though there was a national wave of increasing anger and dismay from the right, and even though Republican turnout was almost certainly higher than normal across the country, Peters was able to survive.
Um-m-m, he got more votes ?!? Is that a trick question?
My district too. The 9th and Oakland County has been trending Democrat for quite a while. A number of offices in the legislature and Oakland County Commission have flipped blue in the past decades and Kerry [by just 3K] and Obama [by a large margin] have carried the county in the presidential elections.
The Michigan 37th [Farmington Hills and Farmington], Raczkowski's former seat, has been Democrat since he was term-limited out of it and he barely held the seat in for last term by under a thousand votes even though he was speaker of the house. The current incumbent Vicki Barnett out-polled her Republican opponent by nearly 2-1 this year.
Breaking the story of Raczkowski being sued by former business partners for fraud did great damage to his campaign. He never answered it, what could he say anyway, and it stuck. Add to that a little Rocky fatigue along with his slightly oily character and result was defeat.
Peters is in trouble however. With Michigan sure to lose at least one seat in Congress and Republicans in full control of redistricting in Lansing, his district is sure to be gerrymandered to his disadvantage.
WHY can't people, the media in particular, recognize that most citizens occupy the ground that exists between the extremes? Or are they just too lazy to suss out nuance?
In addition to the lawsuit allegations, demographic changes, and distaste for his tea party roots from some voters, the attacks about his supporting the "23% tax increase" were effective, even with some Republicans. He seemed to do nothing to counteract this somewhat unfair charge. This "increase," I think it is called the FAIR tax would have gotten rid of the current income tax and given each household a substantial refund check so that the 23% only started after the first $10 or 15 thousand per year per person [[and if you didn't make that much you would still get the full check). This idea has some merit to be considered, and is actually progressive to the extent that it recognizes the right to a basis human existence. The big winner would be poorer to middle class single people who are now highly taxed for what they make.
The only people mentioning the unfairness of the attack were the news media.
Rocky was the wrong candidate. As someone also in the 9th, I did not really think he had a chance.
What I observed:
1) Peters came across as a likeable guy.
2) Rocky came across as a slick politician. Generally, voters were getting rid of the career politicians, not voting them in. Someone with less of a political background would have had a better chance.
3) Rocky ran a very right winged campaign during the primary, which made a lot of moderate Republicans distrust him.
4) Peters weny against many of his swept out counterparts in supporting the extension of the Bush tax cuts. This affects many Oakland County residents who felt Peters was truly representing them on this issue.
People have short attention spans and the middle normally isn't controversial.Quote:
Originally Posted by lilpup
+1Quote:
Originally Posted by lilpup
I remember seeing one of his signs in downtown Birmingham. It stated something like, "Rocky will get rid of Obamacare!" That instantly turned me off. Whether or not I was in favor of the healthcare plan, I won't vote for those who want to "undo" passed legislation.
They're a mean, nasty bunch of spoiled children who didn't get their way. I'm sick of it. Just the term, Obamacare, makes me want to kick someone in the nuts.
Another resident of the 9th here [[Bloomfield Township).
Going back to the beginning, in 2001 Reps in the legislature had all of the power to redistrict, and decided to gerrymander [[just being descriptive, folks, it's gerrymandering no matter who does it) a districting plan that would break 10R/5D. And it pretty much worked. In 2000 Gore won Michigan 51/46, but Bush won 10 of the districts. In 2004, Kerry won Michigan 51/48, and again Bush won the same 10 districts. See
http://www.swingstateproject.com/sho...o?diaryId=4161
for results by district based on the present districts.
In the process, though, the Reps had to create some pretty marginal districts for themselves, and the 9th probably was the most marginal. It combined traditional Rep territory in Rochester, R Hills, Troy, Bloomfield, and B Hills with Dem territory in Pontiac, West Bloomfield, Farmington, and F Hills, and marginal areas in Birmingham [[which hasn't been a Rep stronghold in years) and Royal Oak. I'm guessing the members of the legislature probably figured Knollenberg's seniority would carry him through, and they would save the really Rep districts for newcomers Miller and McCotter.
Knollenberg was pretty reasonable for a Rep [[not anti-gay, for example), but got swept out in '08. As an aside, had he survived '08, I'm sure he would have had a primary challenge this year for being insufficiently right-wing.
Now this year the Reps nominated Rocky, who is very right-wing, and struck me as looking like a car salesman with a nicer suit. He probably scared some of the remaining moderate Rep voters in the district, helped along by Peters' ads and mailers. Right after Labor Day, I was getting mailers and seeing TV ads from the Peters campaign, defining Rocky in voters' minds before he did any advertising of his own. First it was the lawsuit, then Social Security, and finally the "23% sales tax". I saw nothing from Rocky's campaign until well into October.
In the end, it was a textbook example of how to hang on in a marginal district when the other party is sweeping the board. I'm glad Peters won, but it was kind of an ugly win. But then, as in football, ugly wins count as much as the other kind.
Because the extreme right-wing has gotten their message through that moderate and center-right democrats are commies and socialists, which skews the political spectrum WAY to the right, at least as far as the [[actually reactionary and not-at-all liberal) media are concernedQuote:
Originally Posted by lilpup
Originally Posted by lilpup http://www.detroityes.com/mb/images/...s/viewpost.gif
WHY can't people, the media in particular, recognize that most citizens occupy the ground that exists between the extremes? Or are they just too lazy to suss out nuance?
I think it is because the knee jerk reactionary left wing democrat extremists and the left wing media via cbs, nbc, abc, cnn, pmslsd, npr, cpb try to brainwash the ignorant, gullable, miserable class and try to pass off lies as truth, and try to pretend that the people are liberal when most are fiscally and socially conservative.
Also most people are self centered and look out only for their interests not for the country's
The 9th is not my district but I have to acknowledge that Peters' commercials had Raczkowski looking like a grinning snake-oil salesman. It gave the appearance that when Rocky was smiling, he was plotting how to swindle the rest of the money out of your pocket.
Wow, dude, what flavor Kool-aid is that? Or did you just go for the Goofy Grape?Quote:
Originally Posted by gdogslim
Don't forget the Freemasons and the Illuminati, they've joined forces with the Maoists and the baby-killers to brainwash us into thinking that the Democrats aren't really socialists. Luckily if you craft a hat out of simple tin foil, you can block out the radioactive brainwashing lie waves they broadcast into your head from the United Nations building.Quote:
Originally Posted by gdogslim
I do believe we live in a relatively conservative nation, except for the coasts and urban areas, but the vast majority of people aren't raving conspiracy-theorist proto-fascists, either.
I wrote basically the exact same thing rb336 wrote, and just used left instead of right.
But to answer the thread titles question. Why did Peters beat Raczkowski in the 9th?
It is because he got more votes.
What is wrong with how us car salespeople dress?Rocky never connected with the working folks in the 9th.Peters will turn out to be another do nothing Sander Levin.Quote:
Originally Posted by Don K
Gary Peters was my state rep for years. He is very easy to talk to and really pays attention to constituents' concerns. In the last gerrymandering, er, redistricting, we got switched back to Sandy's district, so I didn't get a chance to vote for Gary for Congress, but it is easy for me to see how he won. We were in that district for a time under his predecessor, who would respond to all concerns with a Republican talking point, usually not responsive to the concern addressed to him. The change in attitude must have been very refreshing for the people of the district.
My quick opinion/answer: Peters was the better candidate. He, unlike many democrats, also knows how to hit back at negative competitors by mirroring their tactics.
However, the gerrymandering will likely leave him out, next election.
Peters backing the tax-cuts continuance for the wealthy probably helped.. >:[[
Ummm... I don't usually get involved, but this extremist right wing propoganda has to stop....Quote:
Originally Posted by gdogslim
Gee Sparky,
You sure did say a mouthful.... for somebody that is a right wing follower of Hannity, Beck, Limbaugh and Matlin... as they spoon feed you everything they say as gospel... such as this doosie that you posted in Non-Detroit this week.... :rolleyes:
_______________
"What does a President do when he has HISTORIC losses in Congress? Go to Disneyland? NO
The President takes a TWO BILLION DOLLAR vacation with over 3,000 people to India
That is TWO HUNDRED MILLION DOLLARS A DAY!!!
You can run Obama but you can't hide."
________________
Silly people... some mid-level bureaucrat in Mumbai India mentioned to Fox News that Obama will cost $200 million a day [[the Indian government had to clear all the coconuts out of the palms, as well as all the monkeys from central Mumbai, and bring in 10,000 policemen from New Delhi).... and Hannitty et al... ran with it adding to the lie that 34 warships [[that Fox News mentioned, but never confirmed) would be involved... and this sent their followers thru the roof, with the commentators "fuzzy math" thinking it would cost US taxpayers $2 billion for a 10 day trip [[of which only 3 days were in India... funny that)....
... now what were you saying about ignorant and gullible Sparky? :eek:
Hey Gistock!, why not tell rb336 to stop.
I wrote almost exactly what he did but replaced R with D. I'm sorry for you are intolerant of reading other viewpoints. You seem to be the main arbitrator of views here is that correct?
rb336
"Because the extreme right-wing has gotten their message through that moderate and center-right democrats are commies and socialists, which skews the political spectrum WAY to the right, at least as far as the [[actually reactionary and not-at-all liberal) media are concerned "
Good day sir.
gdogslim.... I am going to appologize to you sir...
Not because I disagree with you... but because I hate people who lump everyone smugly into "opposing camps" and ridicule each other [[as I attempted to do to you)...
My late parents lived thru the horrors of Nazi Germany... and it irritates the piss out of me when I see this country literally tearing itself apart because the opposing viewpoints and propoganda that is bandied back and forth....
Before the age of political blogs and cable TV "news"... this country was much more genteel and civil to opposing sides of the political spectrum. But that is no longer the case.
I'm not going to go into a long diatribe... but suffice to say that the nastiness and discord started during the Clinton years... got worse during the Bush years... and now seems to have hit a feverish pitch that is turning our country into gridlock... while the rest of the world watches in horror [[in the case of our friends abroad) and in amusement [[in the case of our enemies abroad).
As Ben Franklin stated so eloquently over 220 years ago... "either we all hang together... or we all hang separately"....
And I don't think anyone wants to see us become a 2nd rate power of the 21st century. That's why we need to get along and respect each other... and not bicker and finger point... or worse... take a page from Goering's Propoganda Machine...
What station is psmlsd? [[I don't speak Beck)