Amazon Looking for a new HQ - Detroit-Windsor Bid Rejected

**313WX** · October-12-17, 07:01 AM

Originally Posted by emu steve

I'm surprised by your comments on Seattle weather. I believe Seattle's weather is closer to say Charlotte, N.C.

Just looking at the weather charts - SEA is about 15 degrees, on average, warmer during winter than Detroit. E.g., typical [[Feb.) high/low of 50/32 in SEA vs. 32/20 for Detroit.

That's a lot... And yes, I would think weather would be a negative for Detroit and the other cities you mentioned.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/se...monyr=2/1/2017

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/ch...onyr=2/01/2017

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/de...onyr=2/01/2017

I wasn't talking so much about temperatures, but how cloudy / rainy it can get outside the Summer.

Charlotte, being in the sunbelt, is a cake walk in comparison.

**emu steve** · October-12-17, 07:43 AM

Originally Posted by 313WX

I wasn't talking so much about temperatures, but how cloudy / rainy it can get outside the Summer.

Charlotte, being in the sunbelt, is a cake walk in comparison.

Quite frankly, weather is a big negative for Detroit. Not all cities are at risk for hurricanes or earthquakes.

There are cities w/out risk of hurricanes, earthquakes or 50 - 75" of winter snow.

Have no idea how Bezos feels about Midwest weather.

**313WX** · October-12-17, 07:47 AM

Originally Posted by emu steve

Quite frankly, weather is a big negative for Detroit. Not all cities are at risk for hurricanes or earthquakes.

There are cities w/out risk of hurricanes, earthquakes or 50 - 75" of winter snow.

Have no idea how Bezos feels about Midwest weather.

True.

And even all midwestern weather isn't equal.

*Chicago and Minneapolis may see colder temps, they do see a lot more winter sunshine than Detroit or Pittsburgh.

The summer temps in Chicago and Detroit tend to be relatively moderate, but it gets extremely and consistently hot / humid in St. Louis and Kansas City

*Detroit and Cleveland don't really see a ton of severe thunderstorms, but St. Louis and Indianapolis do.

**emu steve** · October-12-17, 08:21 AM

I have lived 1/2 of my life in S.E. MI and 1/2 in D.C. area.

As you suggest, it isn't simply the temperature reading but the sunshine.

The paucity of sunshine in Detroit winters isn't good. Cold temps are livable if there is a decent amount of sunlight.

**iheartthed** · October-12-17, 08:44 AM

Originally Posted by Richard

^ Maybe he just doesn't want all of his operations in one zone considering weather events etc.

If the Pacific Northwest gets slammed by a snowstorm it may shut down complete operations of a 24/7 365 business ,spread out across the country may be limiting exposure.

Detroit may have its weather moments but concidering elsewhere,still pretty stable.That could be a plus.

My own personal theory is that this HQ2 thing is an effort to provide operational continuity whenever the tsunami strikes that is supposed to wipe out the Pac NW. If it's not then Vancouver makes a lot of sense for them due to proximity to Seattle, yet being located in Canada and able to get talent that might have a hard time securing work visas in the U.S. Vancouver also has a large airport with direct connections to all of the major U.S. cities of interest.

**iheartthed** · October-12-17, 08:46 AM

Originally Posted by Gistok

With HORRIBLE traffic... what gives people the impression that Atlanta is a favorite?

I would think that this would be an important reason to pick a city that is NOT like Seattle....

https://atlanta.curbed.com/2017/2/21...al-scale-inrix

Yeah, I don't think it's in the cards for Atlanta. I would put my money on Charlotte over Atlanta.

**iheartthed** · October-12-17, 08:59 AM

Originally Posted by emu steve

I'm surprised by your comments on Seattle weather. I believe Seattle's weather is closer to say Charlotte, N.C.

Just looking at the weather charts - SEA is about 15 degrees, on average, warmer during winter than Detroit. E.g., typical [[Feb.) high/low of 50/32 in SEA vs. 32/20 for Detroit.

That's a lot... And yes, I would think weather would be a negative for Detroit and the other cities you mentioned.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/se...monyr=2/1/2017

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/ch...onyr=2/01/2017

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/de...onyr=2/01/2017

If weather is a factor then it's probably not going to go anywhere north of Charlotte. D.C. may have milder winters than Detroit but the place completely shuts down over winter weather events that are pretty routine there. IMO, that's just as bad as being in a place that receives 40" on snow per year.

Everywhere else north of D.C. on the east coast is subject to monster these blizzards that seem to occur at least every other year now, that will dump a big chunk of the snow amount that Detroit gets in a season during just one storm.

**313WX** · October-12-17, 09:21 AM

Charlotte has mediocre transit [[worse than Atlanta). Besides that, NC is probably off the radar for a while after the bathroom bill.

Furthermore, thinking Charlotte is a better choice than Atlanta goes against just about every reasonable analysis that's been conducted. You might as well say Detroit has a better chance of landing it than Chicago.

So yeah, I have to disagree.

Now if there's any city in the SE that Amazon may pick beside Atlanta, it's Nashville. Millennials love it, it's literally on a tear right now with the skyscrapers and infill happening in downtown / midtown [[more so than Charlotte) and it's even more business-friendly than Georgia [[with the lower tax burden).

**313WX** · October-12-17, 10:27 AM

Originally Posted by masterblaster

San Antonio, Texas, is bowing out.

http://www.mysanantonio.com/business...n-12270844.php

San Antonio quite possibly would have been a worse choice than even Detroit.

Other than to see the Alamo or Sea World, I don't of anyone who even considers the city relevant or is excited to live/visit there. It's basically one massive military town.

**emu steve** · October-12-17, 10:51 AM

Originally Posted by 313WX

Charlotte has mediocre transit [[worse than Atlanta). Besides that, NC is probably off the radar for a while after the bathroom bill.

Furthermore, thinking Charlotte is a better choice than Atlanta goes against just about every reasonable analysis that's been conducted. You might as well say Detroit has a better chance of landing it than Chicago.

So yeah, I have to disagree.

Now if there's any city in the SE that Amazon may pick beside Atlanta, it's Nashville. Millennials love it, it's literally on a tear right now with the skyscrapers and infill happening in downtown / midtown [[more so than Charlotte) and it's even more business-friendly than Georgia [[with the lower tax burden).

Reading through all of these posts:

Detroit, Newark, NoVa, Atlanta...

Dark horses: Charlotte, Nashville, Denver

Is that a good synopsis of the thread?

Some cities 'check the box' better than others...

**iheartthed** · October-12-17, 12:38 PM

Originally Posted by emu steve

Reading through all of these posts:

Detroit, Newark, NoVa, Atlanta...

Dark horses: Charlotte, Nashville, Denver

Is that a good synopsis of the thread?

Some cities 'check the box' better than others...

I think the dark horses are the true front runners. I don't think Newark or any other NYC area location is in the running.

That said, since Dan Gilbert is still all in on this I have to assume that he wouldn't be setting the city up for an embarrassing loss. He must still believe Detroit is in the running.

**Richard** · October-12-17, 01:00 PM

Originally Posted by iheartthed

If weather is a factor then it's probably not going to go anywhere north of Charlotte. D.C. may have milder winters than Detroit but the place completely shuts down over winter weather events that are pretty routine there. IMO, that's just as bad as being in a place that receives 40" on snow per year.

Everywhere else north of D.C. on the east coast is subject to monster these blizzards that seem to occur at least every other year now, that will dump a big chunk of the snow amount that Detroit gets in a season during just one storm.

In 1977 at age 17 I escaped the harsh Minnesota winters to New Mexico,2nd day I was there ice storm hit and immobilized the city for a week.

Tennessee on down,the systems are not built to handle ice very well and not many would make it to work even with back up power,something like that would cost them millions.

There has to be thousands of little things like that figured into the finial decision,the ground work to factor everything in to come up with a plan would also be in the millions in manhours and studies,they are kinda slick getting others to do that for them.

I still think Detroit is a strong candidate though.

**313WX** · October-12-17, 01:00 PM

Dan Gilbert is definitely Detroit's X-Factor [[no other city has someone like him pushing for it with the Amazon bids).

But he can only do so much to polish a turd on his own.

**313WX** · October-12-17, 01:03 PM

Originally Posted by Richard

In 1977 at age 17 I escaped the harsh Minnesota winters to New Mexico,2nd day I was there ice storm hit and immobilized the city for a week.

Tennessee on down,the systems are not built to handle ice very well and not many would make it to work even with back up power,something like that would cost them millions.

But how often do areas south of the Mason-Dixon line see these type of crippling ice storms? Once every decade or so?

Heck, the Snowbelt sees ice storms more frequently than that [[ice storms can cripple any location, I don't care how much removal equipment you have), if it were really a dealbreaker.

**Richard** · October-12-17, 01:23 PM

You know you can order a turd polishing kit on Amazon,free shipping.

https://www.amazon.com/turd-polish/s...Aturd%20polish

**Richard** · October-12-17, 01:36 PM

Originally Posted by 313WX

But how often do areas south of the Mason-Dixon line see these type of crippling ice storms? Once every decade or so?

Heck, the Snowbelt sees ice storms more frequently than that [[ice storms can cripple any location, I don't care how much removal equipment you have), if it were really a dealbreaker.

Ice,heavy snowfall it does not matter,they are not equipped to deal with it,snow plows etc.

I used to buy Hondas in Fla and resale them in Minneapolis driving them up there,hit Tennessee with a little snow and most are in the ditch or going 10 mph on the freeway while I had no problem going the speed limit.

Sure it does not happen everyday but when you are talking about 50,000 employees to run a machine and they are not able to get there it slows and back logs the machine.

If those 50,000 employees are servicing the rest of the country then you now have put it into millions effected over 1 snowstorm that with the back log could take weeks to catch up,that gets costly.

When I order stuff from up north during the winter monthes a single winter storm can effect my delivery sometimes up to 30 days due to back logs created in the system.

If it is time sensitive I have to look at weather patterns before ordering.

How many city crippling weather events has Detroit had in the last year?
How long did it take to recover?

**bust** · October-12-17, 02:14 PM

Originally Posted by emu steve

Reading through all of these posts:

Detroit, Newark, NoVa, Atlanta...

Dark horses: Charlotte, Nashville, Denver

Is that a good synopsis of the thread?

Some cities 'check the box' better than others...

I'd definitely add Philadelphia, Chicago, and Boston to the list. But I don't know where to rank them [[or the others).

I think attracting ample top talent and avoiding high expenses are probably the two biggest considerations. And those things tend to be mutually exclusive in Amazon's line of business.

Don't intend to offend anyone but I think attracting top talent is a big strike against Detroit's chances, as it is for Nashville, Atlanta, and Charlotte to varying degrees. Same for the big cities in Texas [[Austin isn't one of them). On the other hand this consideration is a big plus for Newark, Denver, NoVa, and Boston. Also Chicago and Philadelphia to lesser degrees.

Amazon has long touted how it pays more for downtown Seattle real estate than it would have to in Bellvue or Redmond because they can attract more and better talent as a result. Detroit is an interesting city, but relatively few people are aware of that. And it still very lacking in many of the urban amenities people from other cities expect. For example Bezos has bragged about the high percentages of Amazon employees who enjoy short commutes via foot, bike, and public transit. Not gonna happen in Detroit.

That said, thousands of Amazon employees will provide a big organic economic incentive to address the amenities issue. It could get much better, quickly, like South Lake Union has. But Detroit's intense car focus discourages walkability. And I'm incredibly doubtful good public transit will be something we'll enjoy in Detroit any time soon. Too few voters and politicians see the benefits. And I'm not so sure Bezos is charitable and patient enough to be willing put his Amazon cart before the horse.

On the other hand, avoiding expenses is probably a big plus in Detroit's favor. Amazon is [[in)famously stingy and will look to cut costs wherever they can. Real estate is famously cheap and abundant in Detroit.

I say probably because there are two cost factors that are a concern for Detroit.

The first is the price of air travel Ticket prices are much higher than average. Air travel is a frequent and expensive business expense. Despite DTW's above average quality and connectivity the prices in and out will be a discouragement. Not sure how big of one.

My second concern is another I'm unsure about. I've seen/heard mixed data on the subject, and not a lot of it: the cost of attracting top talent. There is no precedent of a major company relocating to Detroit needing a large labor force outside of what the local pool can provide. Definitely not today's Detroit. We don't know how that would play out.

It's been my experience exploring job opportunities in Detroit that technical and product-oriented salaries are far lower than what is customary for comparable positions in the NE and West Coast. I've also heard that for example the car makers have trouble attracting top executive track talent to Detroit and so they often pay very well to attract it. But that's only third-party information.

Meanwhile the ability to attract talent from Canada is a wildcard that works to Detroit's advantage. Canadians don't need to be paid as much because their government provides so much more in the way of life's basic necessities.

And who knows what their intentions are for their "second headquarters", but it's much more likely to focus on bread and butter issues than executive concerns. Besides, Amazon is not a top-heavy organization. Engineer, Program Manager, and Product Manager salaries will be much bigger considerations.

Meanwhile, as others have already said, expenses are what I believe put NYC completely out of the running. [[But not Newark, only 20 minutes away.) It's a big strike against NoVa too. So is the suburban location.

I agree with the posters who have said it's time to reshape Detroit into the kind of place where Amazon would like to be. We should look at what they are looking for in a city and do our best to get as close possible to there. Whether or not Detroit wins Amazon it would prepare Detroit for the future. And attract other companies besides.

In summary, I think Detroit has a chance.

**bust** · October-12-17, 05:08 PM

Originally Posted by iheartthed

My own personal theory is that this HQ2 thing is an effort to provide operational continuity whenever the tsunami strikes that is supposed to wipe out the Pac NW.

There is very little risk of a tsunami in Seattle. But major earthquake, yes.

**emu steve** · October-12-17, 06:13 PM

I read Bust's post.

One big question about NoVa is how close is 'close enough'?

Tysons' corner is home to many headquartered companies. It's not that far from D.C. [[esp. with the newish Silver subway line). 14 miles according to Google maps.

Dulles is different. It does has that way out feel. About twice as far away.

**rbdetsport** · October-12-17, 06:45 PM

I don't understand why everyone is writing off Atlanta. It may be known for terrible traffic, but it also has a heavy rail system that is being invested in and expanded. Atlanta voted for an increase in the sales tax for transit in the last election. And on the business side, many companies are moving and expanding in Atlanta with its growing population, tech-sector, and airport. Also, attracting talent? It has multiple universities in the city including Georgia Tech and UGA is not far away. Two EXTREMELY well-respected institutions. The city also pulls heavily from all of Florida and the SE. Hell, there is a Michigan State bar in the heart of Midtown Atlanta. Atlanta attracts talent, and has its own talent.

While I am from Detroit and rooting for it to win Amazon hard, I live in Atlanta and believe that it will be chosen for HQ2. Don't write it off without understanding the City at all.

**313WX** · October-12-17, 08:23 PM

Originally Posted by rbdetsport

I don't understand why everyone is writing off Atlanta. It may be known for terrible traffic, but it also has a heavy rail system that is being invested in and expanded. Atlanta voted for an increase in the sales tax for transit in the last election. And on the business side, many companies are moving and expanding in Atlanta with its growing population, tech-sector, and airport. Also, attracting talent? It has multiple universities in the city including Georgia Tech and UGA is not far away. Two EXTREMELY well-respected institutions. The city also pulls heavily from all of Florida and the SE. Hell, there is a Michigan State bar in the heart of Midtown Atlanta. Atlanta attracts talent, and has its own talent.

While I am from Detroit and rooting for it to win Amazon hard, I live in Atlanta and believe that it will be chosen for HQ2. Don't write it off without understanding the City at all.

Agreed on all points.

I also live in Atlanta now. And for those who think Atlanta is too suburban, they obviously haven't been to / through the city in the past 10 years. An impressive amount of urban development and infill has taken place since then.

As far as the traffic, I will say, while coming from the northside can be rough, commutes from the SW side are a breeze [[better than Detroit's rush hour commutes even). For those who live in Douglasville or Newnan, it only takes 30 minutes to get in/out of the city. You don't encounter any real congestion until you get to the connector. Given all of the rural land along the I-20 and I-85 corridor, I suspect that's where the spinoff development would occur if Atlanta landed HQ2.

The only reason I can figure for people on this forum writing Atlanta off is ignorance or hate [[Atlanta is a sprawly black mecca that works, Detroit is a sprawly black mecca that doesn't).

**Bham1982** · October-12-17, 09:14 PM

Originally Posted by rbdetsport

While I am from Detroit and rooting for it to win Amazon hard, I live in Atlanta and believe that it will be chosen for HQ2. Don't write it off without understanding the City at all.

Given that over 300 bids have been filed, and Amazon has offered no specifics or promises, anyone who "believes a city will be chosen" is very likely to be disappointed.

**313WX** · October-13-17, 09:13 AM

RE: Atlanta -

Moody's Analytics conducted an analysis and they tied with Austin for the #1 best choice. Transportation is what ultimately dragged its score down, but it was made up with the COL and the supply of talent.

Interestingly enough, Rochester, NY and Pittsburgh, PA were also in the top 10. Chicago, Dallas, DC and Denver didn't even make the list.

https://www.economy.com/dismal/analy...ns-Top-Cities/

**masterblaster** · October-13-17, 09:20 AM

Originally Posted by 313WX

San Antonio quite possibly would have been a worse choice than even Detroit.

Other than to see the Alamo or Sea World, I don't of anyone who even considers the city relevant or is excited to live/visit there. It's basically one massive military town.

San Antonio
-City Population of 1.4 million, metro population of 2.4 million
-one of the few large cities in America that is predominantly Latino
-Only 80 miles from the tech-haven, ultra trendy city of Austin and U of T
-Located in a high-growth state with a business-friendly climate
-Warm weather climate

Off-topic I know, but I don't know why you minimized the place like that.

**313WX** · October-13-17, 09:27 AM

Originally Posted by masterblaster

San Antonio
-City Population of 1.4 million, metro population of 2.4 million
-one of the few large cities in America that is predominantly Latino
-Only 80 miles from the tech-haven, ultra trendy city of Austin and U of T
-Located in a high-growth state with a business-friendly climate
-Warm weather climate

Off-topic I know, but I don't know why you minimized the place like that.

Nothing I said was incorrect.

Even by Texas standards, it's the least relevant and cosmopolitan of their big cities.