I hope my comment isn't so generic to be of little value:
My guess is that the Great Recession might have accounted for some fraction, say 1/2, of the under utilization [[below projection).
As a general rule, I would be VERY, VERY careful about using any statistics from the period of say 2008 - 2010. Folks, for political reasons, were extrapolating data from that period and extending it 5, 10 or 20 years.
That might have been more nefarious than even silly.
One can not postulate a rule based on the exception to the rule [[The Great Recession).
The two 'exceptions to the rule' for the last 20 years have been the 'boom times' of the 1990 [[with a federal budget surplus to boot) and the Great Recession.
May not see either for a long, long time.
Bookmarks