Ferndale in 5-10 years

[casscorridor]

I think the poster is thinking of Rochester Hills, and may not know the history of small towns around Detroit. Then again, most of us who drive through the area are more familiar with the exurban parts of Rochester/Rochester Hills, and I do think the exurban parts are going to have some major challenges, although I think the little village part will do OK. Rochester Hills, I believe, has the highest percentage of families with children, and has had for about 10 years now. So, in the next 5-10 years, we're going to see a lot of families aging out of those big homes, gas prices rising again, heating costs and commensurate hikes in association fees. I think those homes aren't going to sell as well by then, given the generational shift in taste.

Yes, I meant Rochester Hills. I just call it all Rochester. I think the village/town of Rochester will do good. I think Rochester and Rochester Hills would benefit by merging and eventually reducing the footprint of development on the land. Concentrate development around that pre-existing town.

Go to suburbs with declining young population and see what is happening. Detroit also as declining youth population but I think examples such as Livonia or Warren are more relevant than the Detroit example, because Detroit has an urban foundation [[at least in the core) and many non-auto institutions such as museums, hospitals and colleges located in the center. Suburban areas are fundamentally auto-oriented and lack many real centers, beyond malls. What little public instutions exist are more often than not scattered about, rather than clustered [[like what we see in Midtown).

It makes sense given changes in tastes and attitudes that "downtowns" are the places that thrive. Every town wants their own "downtown." If they don't have one they might build a new one, like in Novi. Some places they even build entirely new towns on green-fields, like in Canton [[Cherry Hill Village). But I don't think the faux town thing is going to work out, the places in the burbs that will do the best are the ones with pre-existing downtowns, such as Wyondotte, Dearborn, Farmington, Northville, Plymouth, Ferndale, Royal Oak, Birmingham, Rochester, Mt Clemens, etc.

This isn't even just about tastes either. Its about sustainability, and our impact on the earth. Oil is one of the leading causes of climate change. Its about the fact that we need to be able to give diverse options to people for transit, and that the suburban model is all about a single mode of transit -- the auto. I think the suburbs can adapt, but they will have a very hard time doing so. The ones that will fare best are the ones I mentioned, but even within those suburbs there will be differences, like the outer part of Rochester will sharply decline while the area around the downtown will fare much better.